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Posts tagged ‘www.wealthbuilder.ie’

The Unfolding Economic Crisis in Europe

By: Christopher M. Quigley

B.Sc. (Maj. Accounting), M.I.I. (Grad.), M.A. www.wealthbuilder.ie

Since October 24th, the German newspaper Der Spiegel has been running a fascinating series of essays on the unfolding economic crisis in Europe.

The scope and detail of the series has caused a bit of an online stir since this bastion of German mainstream journalism painted a very negative view of the future; accordingly, many are wondering whether the German elite are finally beginning to question the sustainability of the current monetary paradigm.

The main issues addressed in the articles were the lack of economic inclusion, the instability of contemporary European economic policy and the increasing wealth disparity among European social groups. One example with regards to the latter outlined how, in the Swiss Canton of Zürich, the 10 richest residents own as much as the poorest 500,000.

Surprisingly, Der Spiegel was very critical of the European Central Bank. The paper went to pains to point out that despite years of easy monetary policy the Euro was still very much a vulnerable project and highlighted the fact that while many problems still remained there was “no more ammunition” left in the ECB’s arsenal of “weapons”.

[Read: ECB Policy Misstep Poses Biggest Risk to Markets]

This “conclusion” perturbed a number of Irish politicians because vary rarely has such a negative German spin been placed on European monetary policy. Upon reading the four articles, one is left with the distinct impression that Euroland is a failing entity exhausted from years of fighting ongoing crises ready to finally roll over and die when the next recession hits.

Thus, despite the glam and glitter surrounding the memorial celebrations for the fall of the Berlin wall, things are not so rosy in the European garden. Next year the British go to the polls to pick a new parliament. The English Prime Minister David Cameron has publically stated that if he wins he will hold a referendum to take Britain out of the European Union. Many believe that such an event might just be the catalyst to push the EU over the edge. 2015 could prove to be a momentous year for Europe and it is my view that Der Spiegel is beginning to see the writing on the wall.

European Deflation Raises Its Ugly Head

Apart from the issue of economic, social and political exclusion, Europe’s other major problem is that of deflation.

To combat a serious collapse in the circulation of money the ECB has embarked on the drastic policy of negative interest rates. Here is what Simon Black of Sovereign Man had say on this matter:

It Begins: German Bank ‘Charging’ Negative Interest To Its Retail Customers

Central bankers today have a delusional view of the world. Just three months ago, Mario Draghi (President of the European Central Bank) embarked on his own folly by taking certain interest rates into NEGATIVE territory. Draghi convinced himself that he was saving Europe from disaster. And like Don Quixote of Spanish lore, everyone else has had to pay the price for his delusions.

On November 1st, the first European bank has passed along these negative interest rates to its retail customers. So if you maintain a balance of more than 500,000 euros at Deutsche Skatbank of Germany, you now have the privilege of paying 0.25% per year… to the bank.

We’ve already seen this at the institutional level: commercial banks in Europe are paying the ECB negative interest on certain balances. And large investors are paying European governments’ negative interest on certain bonds. Now we’re seeing this effect bleed over into retail banking. It almost seems like an episode from the Twilight Zone… or some bizarre parallel universe. That’s the investment environment we’re in now.

In my opinion the main reason why this deflationary banking policy is spreading throughout Europe is the fact that stratospheric structural unemployment rates exist among European youth in Cyprus, Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy. Seven years and no strategic initiative has emerged from Brussels to tackle this serious human catastrophe. How long it can continue without social breakdown is anyone’s guess but it is this factor which is behind regions such as Catalonia and Scotland seeking to “go it alone”.

Many believe that the only long-term solution to Europe’s economic malaise is reversion back to a union of sovereign states within an economic union rather than a political and monetary one. Such a move would allow the inefficient southern European states devalue their currencies and thus achieve economic competitiveness. However, it would appear the powers that be will not countenance such a move. Sometimes it requires fate to take a hand. I am sure in 1989 the politburo of the Soviet Union did not wish to see their hegemony diminish but their Empire collapsed, not due to desire but due to the sovereign power of economic truth.

Is the Market Preparing to Go Hyperbolic?

Despite the recent run up in the markets since the 17th of October, when you look at the S&P 500, the Dow Industrials, and the NASDAQ, there is no evidence to be seen of real momentum breakdown.

Yes the market advance has lost some power over the last week but this looks to me like the market is merely catching its breath in preparation for a strong rally into the New Year.

Such price action allows the main indices to wear down their overbought positions through time rather than through price retraction.

Thus while, ideally, I would like a nice pullback to give some technical support to new long positions entered into I do not think it is going to happen. Thus, any major moves up should be taken advantage of as I believe the market has a higher probability of going hyperbolic in early 2015 than contracting.

Chart: S&P 500: Daily
sp500 nov 13

Chart: Dow Industrials: Daily
dj30 13 nov

Chart: QQQ ETF: Daily
qqq 13 nov

Charts Courtesy Of Worden Bros.

Sources: Der Spiegel “The Zombie System”, Michael Sauga, October 24th 2014.

Sovereign Man blog, Simon Black, 4th. November 2014.

© Christopher M. Quigley 14th. November 2014

Current Position of the Market by Andre Gratian

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Very Long-term trend – The very-long-term cycles are down and, if   they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over) there will   be another steep and prolonged decline into late 2014. It is probable, however,   that the steep correction of 2007-2009 will have curtailed the full downward   pressure potential of the 120-yr cycle.

SPX: Intermediate trend – SPX has made a top at 1474. A mid-correction   rally is underway.

Last week’s newsletter discussed the probability of a mid-correction rally   starting from the 1335-1341 level, the possibility that a short-term low had   already been reached at 1343, and that a reversal had already started. The   forecast turned out to be correct, but the mid-correction rally is even stronger   than anticipated. I had an initial phase projection of 1403, but on Friday SPX   closed at 1409. Although Friday’s momentum could spill over into Monday, SPX is   giving indications of having completed this phase of the rally and is ready to   start a retracement. I have already mentioned that the reason for this pull-back   would be the cycles that are due to bottom at the end of the month and that   which are likely to produce a retracement of about 50% of the move from 1343.   This is reinforced by the fact that this would be a retracement down to the   level of the 4th wave of the 5-wave move which ostensibly just ended. For SPX,   this would take prices back down to about 1377.

A reason for the rally to end at Friday’s high is that it represents a 50%   retracement of the entire decline from SPX 1474. DJIA has retraced slightly less   than 50%, while NDX has only retraced slightly more than .382 which still makes   it the weakest of the three indices.

Following the near-term correction into the end of the month, a resumption of   the rally is likely with marginal new highs anticipated, perhaps extending to   .618 of the decline from 1474. That would bring SPX to about 1424. Upon   completion of this move, the intermediate decline could then continue into the   original forecast time slot of early 2013.

I have given a forecast of what could happen over the next few weeks based on   cycles and Fibonacci projections that seem logical. Let’s see how accurate this   scenario will turn out to be.

In last week’s newsletter, I also mentioned that AAPL had most likely reached   a near-term low in a climactic fashion. That also proved to be correct. By   Friday’s close, the stock had tacked on another 42 points…………………………….

full article at source:http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article37719.html

Stock Market Bottom is In, Year End Forecasts

By: Toby_Connor

In my last couple of articles I mentioned that I was waiting for the S&P to form a swing low as the first confirmation that an intermediate degree bottom had formed. That swing is going to form on the open Monday morning.

Typically the stock market will rally fairly aggressively out of one of these major intermediate bottoms, often gaining 6%-8% in the first 15-20 days. At that point the market will dip down into a half cycle low that will establish the trend line for this particular daily cycle.

Since the dollar is now on the 21st day of its daily cycle it is now overdue for a move down into a short-term low. This should drive the first half of that 6%-8% move, followed by a very short corrective move as the dollar bounces and then rolls over quickly into a another leg down.

That cycle would be due to bottom around the first of the year, and should drive the stock market generally higher until early January at which time we should get a more significant correction, probably as nervousness builds before the next earnings season.I’ve diagrammed the general directions and rough targets for what I think will unfold over the next month and a half in the chart below.

full article at source:http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article37621.html

 

Kondratieff_Waves_and_the_Greater_Depression_of_2013

By Christopher M. Quigley

There are very few heroes in economics but for me one of the patron saints of that profession should be Nikolai Kondratiev who was shot by firing squad on the orders of Stalin in 1938. He died for what he believed was the truth. His execution was ordered because his academic work propounded that the capitalist system would not collapse as a result of the great depression of 1929. This truth Stalin did not want to hear, thus Nikolai was exterminated and his work suppressed for over two decades.

full article here in PDF : Kondratieff_Waves_and_the_Greater_Depression_of_2013

The “REVOLUTION” of the Antichrist at work in the world

By Christopher M. Quigley

Excerpts:

“Father Seraphim Rose (Eugene Rose):

His Life and Works.”

(By Hieromonk Damascene)

Despite the intellectual elitism of his youth, Eugene was the first to admit that everything he had ever learned with his mind meant nothing beside true wisdom. What he called the “vision of the nature of things.” “The nature of things is non-intellectible in essence, can never be known by the intellect ,” he said, “it was Rene Gueron who taught me to seek and love the Truth above all else, and to be unsatisfied with anything else.”

 

Gueron believed that intellectual elite was needed to restore meta-physical knowledge to the West. In his writings Eugene found things he had always felt without being able to understand, having never had a clear perspective on them. He had always felt that there was something wrong with the modern world; but since that was the only world he had known, he had had nothing by which to judge the matter; and had thus been inclined to think that there was something wrong with himself. Gueron taught him that it was in fact not him, but the modern world that was abnormal……. In essence, Gueron convinced him that the upholding of ancient tradition was valid, and not just a sign of becoming unenlightened, as the modernists would claim. Whereas the modern mentality viewed all things in terms of historical progress, Gueron viewed them in terms of historical disintegration……. Without a traditional worldview to bring all into a coherent whole, modern life becomes fragmented, disordered,

confused, and accordingly the modern world heads towards a catastrophe.

 

In his book “The Reign of Quantity and the Signs of the Times,” Gueron explained how the elimination of traditional spiritual principles had led to a drastic degeneration of humanity. He showed how modern science, with its tendency to reduce everything to an exclusively quantitative level, has corrupted man’s conception of true knowledge and confined his vision to what is temporal and material. In his journal Eugene wrote: “our age has been taught to believe in nothing higher than the human mind, and in the ideas of the mind; that is why the conflicts of our day are “ideological” and why TRUTH is not in them for truth is only in living communion with Christ; apart from him there is no life, no TRUTH.”

 

In his writing, Eugene wanted to do more than confirm his new-found faith. His conversion (to Orthodoxy) was not only a finding of the truth, but also an emerging out of untruth. He came from a society built upon apostasy, the historical “stepping away” from the revelation of Christ the God-man. As a result of this apostasy, he saw everywhere signs of the deterioration of culture; of humanity reverting to a kind of “sub-humanity,” of noble values being replaced by crude materialistic ones….

 

Eugene, then. did not deny the truth contained in non-Christian religions; he only indicated its incompleteness. He took a similar approach when comparing Orthodoxy to Roman Catholicism: “the Catholic Church, however much it has capitulated – and continues to capitulate – to the modernist mentality, has remained in contact with the Truth…. But what has been transmitted with imperfect understanding in the Catholic Church has been transmitted in full by the Orthodox East, which has even to the present day preserved intact that whole truth from the fullness of which the Catholic West departed in schism nearly a millennium ago….. Orthodoxy has preserved the authentic mystical Christian tradition…. Modernism, indeed, was no sudden arbitrary movement, but had roots that reach far into the character of Western European man. It is in the Orthodox Christian East alone then, that it is to be found the whole standard wherewith to measure the denial of Christian truth that is modernism.” ….

 

In the political sphere one wonders whether the collapse of the iron curtain and communist power in Russia and Eastern Europe correspond s to the “withering away of the nihilistic State” described by Eugene, after which there is to be a “world-order” unique in human history.  Communism has done its job: it has effectively destroyed the OLD ORDER. Now there can be an “opening up” to make way for the next stage of the nihilistic program, directed by the international forces. As Eugene wrote. “the final epoch will not, after all, be characterized by national disputes and the communist stifling of man’s spiritual needs, but by a superficial unity and a fulfilling of these needs by means of clever (untrue) substitutes.”……

 

Precisely three decades before the collapse of the Soviet Union, Eugene wrote the following words, sobering in their prophetic import: “violence and negation are, to be sure, a preliminary work; but their operation is only part of a much larger plan whose end promises to be not something better, but something incomparably worse than the age of nihilism. If in our own times there are signs that the era of violence and negation is passing, this is by no means because nihilism is being “overcome” or “outgrown,” but because its work is all but completed and its usefulness is at an end. The REVOLUTION, perhaps, begins to move out of its more violent phase and into a more “benevolent” one. Not because it has changed its will or direction, but rather because it is nearing the attainment of its ultimate goal which it has never ceased to pursue. ; fat with its success it can prepare to relax in the enjoyment of its goal.” …..

 

In 1989, during the era of glasnost and perestroika, immediately preceding the fall of the Soviet Union, General Secretary of the communist party Mikhail Gorbachev mad a revelatory statement that chillingly echoed Eugene’s predictions from the early 1960’s: “having embarked upon the road of radical reform,” Gorbachev said. “the Socialist countries are crossing the line beyond which there is no return to the past. Nevertheless, it is wrong to insist, as many in the West do, that this is the collapse of Socialism. On the contrary, it means that the Socialist process in the world will pursue its further development in a

multiplicity of forms.” (CMQ Note: Be it the European Union, The United Nations, The World Court, The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, The European Central Bank, The World Bank, The Federal Reserve and NATO).

(C) 28th. August 2012 Christopher M. Quigley. All rights reserved.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Robots Dont Buy Cars

Christopher M. Quigley

B.Sc., M.M.I.I., M.A.

 

http://www.wealthbuilder.ie

 

 

 

Ourworld lurches from financial crisis to financial crisis yet very few academics,reporters or commentators point out the fatal flaw in current orthodox economic theory which is the central force behind these crises. The flaw relates to the general lack of purchasing power in contemporary society. This weakness in classical economic theory is not new and many scholars have explained the problem however, increasingly, the issue is being conditioned out of people’sconsciousness. The collapse of the international banking system, as a result of the Sub-Prime; “Originate to Distribute” catastrophe, has brought the Achilles heel of Keynesian economics into sharp focus. The elite thus fear that the prospect of a “greater depression” will force change that will eliminate theirposition of control and privilege. Hence the current “spin” emanating from controlled media outlets. The growth of the “tea party movement” is a case in point. Should this political revolution gain in power the possibility of real change in US economic policy will become increasingly probable thus the perceived need to crush it or at the very least gain ownership and control over it. The end objective of this grass root movement is the dismantling of FED interest bearing credit policy in favour of treasury cash, the abolition of the “open door” Chinese trade policy  and the redistribution of true purchasing power to the average American citizen. Fairly remunerated citizens need to replace foreign robots. Robots do not buy cars, raise families, and care for the well being of elderly parents. Americans must stop looking on their nation simply as a mechanical economy and start to see it as a human society.

 Why is purchasing power so important? It is fundamental because without money no exchange can take place. In order to understand what I am talking about let us look at the historical example set by Henry Ford. He completely redefined “classical” economics through the policies undertaken by the Ford Motor Company in the 1920’s. Under “normal” theory it was assumed that a corporation could only maximise profits by increasing price and limiting supply. Ford did the exact opposite because he had a more holistic view of the role of the corporation in society.He doubled the wages of his workers, decreased the price of the Model T and in the process remade the Ford Motor Corporation. (This policy was not inflationary because he knew he could at least double supply through increased efficiencies). The company boomed. How did this happen. It was axiomatic for he understood the importance of money and purchasing power in communities. With Ford’s workers able to make a good living, their financial anxiety ceased and staff turnover dropped by a multiple of five in one year. This dramatically decreased management expense and increased productivity. Workers finally had peace of mind. With the increased disposable income in the Detroit area the general economy boomed. All classes of economic sectors expanded. As a result
more workers, new business owners, company managers, insurance brokers, real estate brokers, bankers, salesmen, craftsmen, delivery men, builders, farmers and retailers could afford Ford cars. Demand for the model T doubled through the increased buying power WHICH HE HAD CREATED. Accordingly profits at the Ford Motor Company dramatically improved as a result of his innovative policy.

 Ford understood economics and he understood the issue of PURCHASING POWER. FOR HIM PURCHASING POWER WAS NOT CREDIT BUT
CASH.  HE REASLIZED THAT WITHOUT THE MONEY TO PURCHASE HIS CARS POTENTIAL DEMAND WAS IRRELEVANT. THEREFORE HE
REDISTRIBUTED DIVIDENDS FROM THE OWNERS TO THE WORKERS. THIS BRILLIANT INSIGHT MADE THE FUTURE FOR THE COMPANY. It built up the economy of Detroit and it helped define America as a country where a factory worker was respected and well paid, not exploited, as had been the case throughout the English industrial revolution. The American dream was Ford’s vision made manifest. It was a dream brought to fruition not through political fantasy but through the laws of accounting, finance, production and marketing.

 

 “Power and machinery, money and goods, are useful only as they set us free
to live. They are but means to an end. For instance, I do not
consider
the machines which bear my name simply as machines. If that was
all
there was to it I would do something else. I take them as concrete
evidence
of the working out of a theory of business, which I hope is
something
more than a theory of business—a theory that looks toward
 making
this world a better place in which to live. The fact that the
commercial
success of the Ford Motor Company has been most unusual is
important only because it serves to demonstrate, in a way which no one can
fail to understand, that the theory to date is right.

Considered solely in this light I can criticize the prevailing system of industry and the organization of money and society from the standpoint of one who has not been beaten by them. As things are now organized, I could, were I thinking only selfishly, ask for no change. If I merely want money the present system is all right; it gives money in plenty to me. But I am thinking
of service. The present system does not permit of the best
service
because it encourages every kind of waste—it keeps many men
from
getting the full return from service. And it is going nowhere. It
is all a matter of better planning and adjustment.”

 Henry Ford My Life and Work

Compare for one moment the circumstances in Detroit in the 1920’s and mainstream America today. The exact opposite is occurring. Meaningful wage levels are being destroyed and thus the required buying power is contracting in a structured and planned manner. This system cannot hold. Society is being hollowed out from the inside. Folks do not understand what is happening due to “dumbed down” educational policies. To replace falling money (wage) levels between goods available for purchase and actual purchase capability the banking elites are “managing” the availability of credit. This credit substitute for real wages is an unstable arrangement because the debt is very expensive and is non-liquidating other than through bankruptcy or lotto wins or death. This is no way to run nations.
It creates constant anxiety and eventual depression among citizens. It is
inherently unstable particularly now that most banks are actually insolvent and
are no longer in the position to provide credit in the form of business loans,
credit card facilities, car loans, overdrafts or home equity draw-downs.

 Thus in essence the “solution” to “the problem” in America and for that matter in Europe, is enlightened redistribution of purchasing power other than through non existent credit. Currently too much power over such redistribution is controlled by banks and associate entities.
This money centralization is stagnating the system and the fact that this
arrangement failed to regulate itself, and caused a credit collapse, has accentuated the speed of failure by multiples. It is time to change. Society must move on. The intellectual framework to effect this change, as demonstrated by Ford, has been known for over 80 years. Its successful implementation today would bring a renaissance to world commerce and societal development. There is no more important function for Academia today other than to dissemination this vital economic truth.

 Armed with this knowledge for how long do we allow the folly of present economic “orthodoxy” to continue? To me this situation is akin to an adult perceiving the behaviour of a wild and immature teenager, wondering when the “penny will drop” and wisdom will prevail. To the elites, who must know the truth, this monopoly credit based boom-bust phenomenon is obviously allowed to continue because they have control. Their ownership motivates them to disregard consequences provided they are protected
through privilege.
However, I believe that the truth is too
obvious to ignore anymore.  The end result of the current repression is the on-going development of the new modality which I call: “Techno-Feudalism”. This “Techno-Feudalism” will bring with it vast disparities in wealth, ownership and opportunity. It will lead to an eventual obliteration of the middle classes in developed nations. It will engineer the slow Fabian demise of effective democratic institutions in the West. Untamed it will break traditional social cohesion and lead to mass unrest,criminality and despair. But the future does not have to be so bleak. The money solution is so obvious it is “madness” not to sort it out. The truth must beallowed to break free.

 

“The organism has a right in natural law to draw sustenance from its environment. We cannot with impunity abstract humanity from the natural world. ….Unfortunately, the present financial system creates an ever greater deficiency of effective and unattached purchasing power giving the illusion, through a distorted financial lens, of actual or physical scarcity in the midst of actual and potential abundance…..

 We are trying to pass from one type of civilization into another in which the possibilities are such that we cannot begin to imagine. That transition, I believe, will best be facilitated in an environment which provides maximum freedom (immanent sovereignty) for the individual in the context of absolute economic security.”

Wallace Klinck

 

In the 1930’s the engineer and self-taught economist Major Clifford Douglas claimed that society was intellectually hypnotized and that only a drastic de-hypnotization and re-education could save it. Douglas believed in people. He felt that individuals had far more goodness and potential than society was allowing them for. He reckoned that if common folk were given enough freedom and leadership they could move society and civilization into a new golden age. An age of extended liberty, discovery, art and culture.  The alternative he felt would be booms, busts, over-consumption, under-consumption, excesses,depressions and wars. Eighty years later this is exactly what the world has experienced and is continuing to experience. However, the period between each stage is narrowing and the level of debt, instability and inequality are exploding beyond comprehension. To followers of Douglas this situation is not happening by accident; it is happening inevitably because of conceptual flaws in financial and fiscal policy.

 The monetary and economic policies of such people as Henry Ford, Clifford Douglas, E.C. Riegel and E. F. Schumpeter et al are heartfelt attempts to bring about “steady state” change to historical economic orthodoxy. It is incumbent on all interested parties who desire to solve this problem of problems to become educated and aware of the available solutions and to actively participate. Not to do so will allow the current “greater depression” to expand and gain a greater grip on economic activity. History shows that such a development will eventually lead to war as sure as night follows day. Thus the choice is clear;do we want war or peace? If you opt for peace, as I do, we must strive to free contemporary economic policy from its death waltz with outmoded Keynesianism.Economic theory must move on, sanity demands it.

 References:

“Flight from Inflation”

E.C.Riegel

The Heather Foundation,

Los Angeles.

 “My Life and Work”

Henry Ford

In Collaboration with

Samuel Crowther

 “Small Is Beautiful”

E. F. Schumacher

 “Social Credit”

Major Clifford Hugh Douglas

Mondo Politico.Com

Meta-Economics:as introduced my E.F Schumacher in his classic book

By Christopher M. Quigley B.Sc., M.M.I.I. Grad, M.A. www.wealthbuilder.ie

This brief essay is a summary of the idea “Meta-Economics” as introduced my E.F Schumacher in his classic book; “Small is Beautiful.” Economic: “Sufficient to give a good return for the money or resources expended.” Meta: “To transcend or go beyond.” The neglect, indeed the rejection, of wisdom has gone so far that most of our intellectuals have not even the faintest idea what the term could mean. But where can wisdom be found? It can only be found inside oneself. To find it one must become liberated. Through such liberation one can become relevant. Wisdom enables us to see the hollowness and fundamental unsatisfactoriness of a life devoted primarily to the pursuit of material ends, to the total neglect of the spiritual and the sustainable. The influence of economics upon the management of government has grown exponentially since the seventies. However, it is now being realised that the judgment of economics is a most fragmentary one. Classic economic theory deals with demand and supply but all contemporary demand and supply is exchanged through the medium of money; fiat money. Due to the importance of stable money supply to the correct stewardship of any economy no government should unduly tamper with its smooth operation. To do so invites mayhem. As a result of catastrophic error, sub-prime crises, derivative explosion, credit balloons, defunct regularity oversight, debt monetization, and private credit exploitation the money supply has become so corrupted it is almost impossible for anybody to make correct economic decisions. The historic” medium of exchange” model has been broken. Fidelity with the integrity and the sacrifices of our forefathers has been compromised by a shallow elite. To get out of this “economic crisis” governments must now start thinking in Meta-Economic modalities. Thus we must acknowledge that to sort out the mess we must go beyond “classic” quantative economic thought. In the new paradigm, wisdom must prevail. The fatal flaw of lack of adequate purchasing power, under the current “credit” model, must be acknowledged. Without this conceptual breakthrough the crisis will never be adequately solved. Current economic thinking only touches the surface of things and takes for granted so much that should be accounted for; i.e. clean air, fresh water, moral integrity of the majority, faith in authority etc. etc. In a sense this quantative model promotes total institutional selfishness and irresponsibility. This is all very well as long as there is no systemic failure but, unfortunately, systemic crisis is exactly what we are now faced with. Gross irresponsibility has taken the sacredness out of life. The macro crisis is not simply an objective one. It becomes personal in the form of depression, loneliness, isolation, meaninglessness, exhaustion, marriage break-up, atomization, pharma-medicinal dependence, addiction and suicide. To bring about change in this zeitgeist quality must be brought back into the quantative social model. We must strive to bring LIFE back to the process of living. The formula for this is to reintegrate simplicity, integrity and constraint into the functioning of our institutions, enterprises, thought processes and behaviour. Patterns of action must be championed that honour human satisfaction on all levels not just financially. To comprehend this “meta” concept, some examples of Meta-Economic mind-set principles V’s those of Quantative Economics one are set out below: Meta-Economic: Quantative Economic: ———————- ———————— Timely Fast Need Want Sustainable Profitable Community Individual Co-operation Competition Human Mechanic Capital Resource Current Factor of Production Practical Whole Conceptual Sub-Set Shared Purchasing Power Private Credit Medium of Exchange Fiat Money Local Trans-National Art Design Education Training Process Structure Authority Power Means Ends Order Control Tradition Law Common Sense Central Ordinance For economics to become valuable and relevant again to sustainable society its practitioners must realise the truth that economics is a social science and as such it deals with human beings, not atomised ciphers. Rationality must reconstitute itself with morality, ethics and philosophy. If national and international economists continue to lose these classical thought centres, social disintegration will spiral out, uncontrollably. Governments and economists must begin to see the whole picture again. We have foolishly and recklessly abandoned our great Western-Christian heritage. The task now is one of metaphysical regeneration. Economics must stop being taught where awareness of human nature is lacking. We are suffering from a metaphysical disease and therefore the cure is metaphysical: meta-economical. It is time for economics and accounting to grow up and transcend there historical roots.

wealthbuilder.ie latest market brief

Wealthbuilder.ie

Quarterly Market Brief

1st. December 2010

Chris over at wealthbuilder.ie has sent over his latest market brief

My favourite indicator of market breath, the McClennan Summation Index, is finally beginning to get to a level where it is becoming interesting. A move into negative territory, though some ways to go, will herald the probability that stocks will soon begin providing price action that brings solid technical support. This is good news particularly for those who have been out of the market since the early September bull move. In my books patience is a major key to achieving above average investment returns. Those investors who relaxed and held off while the herd chased the trend should now begin to sharpen their attention. At the moment the Dow Transports (DJ-20) are showing more strength than the Dow Industrials (DJ-30).  However, Technology, Mid-Caps and Small Caps all remain strong despite pull-backs. This indicates that the March 2009 bull trend is still solidly in place for the moment.full PDF Doc here Nov Market brief

“ignorance is bliss.”

Ireland Still Refuses To Contemplate
Leaving the “Imperial” Euro

By Christopher Quigley

Thursday 18th 2010 The IMF arrived in the Emerald Isle. What a sad sad day for the proud people of Ireland . Following 300 years of armed struggle the resident government have replaced English masters with the Continental variety. However the method of usurpation this time was not guns and bullets and starvation but economic and financial prowess. To the victor goes the spoils. Professor Honohan Governor of the “Irish” central bank and his associate Mark Elderfield, the resident bailiffs of the Continental finance houses, already have a list of the target assets compiled courtesy of “An Bord Snip” ( A committee set up to identify where Ireland’s creditors can get funds quickly in the event of default). On this schedule of valuations are such national jewels as: An Bord Gais, C.I.E., Coillte, The Dublin Airport Authority, The Dublin Port, R.T.E., The National Transport Network, The ESB power grid, The National Lottery etc.
etc. You get the picture. These assets belong to the Irish nation. They will soon belong to foreign bondholders.The hapless Prime Minister of Ireland Brian Cowen, like a rabbit in the headlights, refused to face the inevitable fact that he has led the country to ruin through utter incompetence. One of the saving graces of ignorance is that your stupidity does not possess the intelligence to understand
that it is stupid. It’s what psychologists call: “a closed self-deception psyche.” The vernacular manner of formulating this state is; “ignorance is bliss.” Or as our great Lord expressed it so passionately in prayer on the mound at Golgotha; “father forgive them for they know not what they do.”

Mark my words Ireland will leave the Imperial Euro (IE). That is my prediction. If not now then in five or ten years time. It is inevitable. The romance between Ireland and Europe is over.
When love ends so goes the relationship. Divorce is in the offing. If we had true leadership they would bite the bullet and file the papers now. A new “Mediterranean Euro Zone” (ME) should be conceived involving Ireland, Spain, Italy and Portugal. Orthodox Greece may want to join if it so desires. This “ME” is needed to pool resources to ensure that the countries leaving the “Imperial
Euro” (IE) can get out of its hard currency loans. Not to do so would be disaster. Argentina saw this problem and faithfully managed to “humble” American dollar bondholders and so saved their economy and their nation. Hungary failed to identify this issue and is now repaying hard Swiss and Imperial Euro loans in a significantly devalued national currency. As a result its economy is a structural basket case.

Why is it important that Ireland leave the Euro? Well the main reason is that through simple devaluation we can restore competitiveness to our economy without applying crippling IMF deflationary “austerity measures.” Of course to prevent inflation and its concomitant problems undermining the future growth of the nation, real enterprise with real wealth benefits must be promoted. The civil service mentality of pay without production must be finally put to rest.
Socialism died in Russia in 1989 it needs to be finally buried in Ireland in the wake of the IMF arrival in Dublin.

If Ireland chooses to stay in the Imperial Euro and belong to a club it cannot afford to be in it will be continue to mean economic suicide. IMF austerity cuts over the next five years are going to halve Irish GDP through budget cuts, expenditure and tax hikes. In addition none of its banks will be native owned. It is also axiomatic that many of its prized semi-state assets will be sold off to foreign operators at bargain basement prices. Thus when Ireland Inc. finally leaves the IMF/ECB bankruptcy process it will be a shadow of its former self. If Ireland as a Nation complies with this liquidation without a future strategy for growth it will be a Nation in name only. The day a leader emerges in Ireland who formulates a credible Mediterranean Euro strategy with associated tactical links to the Sterling area is the day a new dawn will have arrived in Celtic Ireland.

Market update November 2010

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our friends over at Wealthbuilder have sent us this stock market update

Market Brief November 2010

The market continues to power ahead with significant momentum. The Dow 30 Industrials,

the Dow 20 Transports, the S & P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 all are taking wind from a new

quantitative easing policy, extended Bush tax breaks and positive earnings guidance. In addition

Wall Street likes the idea that Democrats and Republicans must work together and compromise

following the mid-term Congressional elections.

There is of course another factor influencing the positive trend. Given that current interest

rates are near zero the only way bond rates can go is up. Rising rates will herald an end to the

extended bond market rally we have witnessed over the past years. Smart hedge managers

are reading the change and are moving ahead of more cautious mutual fund players. Should

this capital re-allocation strategy become more pronounced, good times could finally arrive to

beleaguered equity managers. Remember the stock market has ambled range bound since 2001.

It is thus well in line for major price movement particularly when you factor in the inflation

multiples which will eventually kick in to common price levels as a result of quantitative easing

dollars moving out from financial balance sheets and into the broader economy.

Since September our recommendations have done fabulously well. Silver (SLV) is up 36%,

Gold (GLD) has gained 10% and our emerging markets ETF (EDC) has advanced 70%.

Long may it last. I recommend sticking with these momentum trades until their 20 DMA’s are

significantly broken on large volume. I do not believe we will see that soon. If anything I reckon

those investors who are out of the market may find it difficult to find a safe entry point until the

earnings season in early 2011. But traders should not be disheartened. The market eventually

always retrenches. I am a great believer in waiting for a technically sound purchasing position.

Patience will always outlast recklessness. In other words never chase “Mr. Market.” For those

who are looking for an investment “target” that has not run too far from a conservative technical

range I recommend consideration of USO, the oil investment vehicle. This ETF is significantly

off its 2008 high of 103. It currently trades around 39.50. Should it break the 41 dollar level

it will be a definite buy and could go all the way to 120, in 2011 and beyond, should the bull

perception begin to consolidate.

On the value front there have been great results from our watch-list candidates. To name a few:

Western Digital (WDC) is up 41%. Monsanto (MON) has risen 29%. The Blackstone Group

(BX) has gained 40%. Southern Copper (SCCO), a company that actually pays a fantastic

dividend, has increased 50% and Telefonica (TEF) has advanced 35%.

Observing price action broadly across the market-place the message I am getting is that the

worst is over, short term, and that the bull trend is growing in energy and power. Extended and

compressed high stochastics are a feature of bull markets and that is what we are experiencing.

The final leg to the “Bull” stool would be for the bottom to be finally set for the Real Estate

market. My property contacts in Florida tell me this may not happen too soon given the

complexity of the crisis but the current “mixed” real estate story has a silver lining. The FED

will not raise interest rates aggressively until bank balance sheets have stable “mark-to-market”

property valuations. When that happens stock market advances will begin to be tempered by

rising interest rate trends, but we are not there yet. Thus as long as monetary policy continues to

be accommodative I see no reason why Wall Street will not enjoy a traditional “happy” festive

season and a New Year that beckons “new hope” and higher prices. Thus the traders mantra will

not be “buy low and sell high” but “buy high and sell higher.” The wall of worry has arrived.

The easy money has been made. It’s time for the seasoned traders who understand technical

positioning to rule the roost and make some real money going long on appropriate risk reward

candidates. Fundamentals are fine but always remember that technicals rule.

http://www.wealthbuilder.ie

Christopher M. Quigley

B. Sc., M.M.I.I., M.A.

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