What is truth?

Posts tagged ‘Wicklow town blog’

festive spirit we certenly have the weather!

What a change in 15 hours we are now totally snowed in here in Wicklow and in the outer estates all you can do is to walk everywhere, forget trying to drive out you will never get back in.

Might as well take down the Christmas decorations and start putting them up and get into the festive spirit !  

This slideshow requires JavaScript.

Wicklow Town’s latest traffic management and road resurfacing works

Wicklow Town’s latest traffic management and road resurfacing works are ongoing and the question now is will they be finished before they run out of money?
see video link http://www.vimeo.com/17153765

Marlton Road

The completion of the pedestrian footpath along the Marlton road is a very welcome development and looks like it will be completed shortly
see video link http://vimeo.com/17154668

He could be talking about Ireland

I agree we need to be concentrating of  industrious business ,why can’t I but Irish made shirts, shoes, Irish made bicycles, for god sake Irish made anything?

75% of our business here in Ireland is services, and we are now been forced to become debt servicing junkies by Cowen and his cronies.  

Unless we get up off our collective backsides we will be forced to vote in twiddle dummer when we get rid of twiddle Dee

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kja5aCYuocU&feature=player_embedded

Is it time to let AIB go?

Allied Irish Banks' crest

Image via Wikipedia

Is it time to let AIB go?

namawinelake | November 2, 2010 at 11:51 am | Categories: Irish economy, NAMA | URL: http://wp.me/pNlCf-Kw

It sounds like the kind of decision a family around the death bed of a loved one faces. Though perhaps the comparison isn’t in the best taste, the reality is that the venerable 185-year old bank is facing insolvency and it is only the dogmatic government strategy of maintaining a duopoly of “Irish” banks not to mention over €10bn of public funds and significant ECB funds that is keeping the bank afloat. This entry examines the status of AIB and the cost of keeping it alive.

Firstly for our international friends, AIB is Allied Irish Banks PLC – note the plural “Banks”. It has nothing to do with the biggest failure in Irish corporate history, Anglo Irish Bank which is referred to domestically simply as “Anglo”. AIB was conceived in 1825 with the opening of a bank called Provincial Bank and over the next century and a half merged with other domestic banks to give us the Allied Irish Banks that we know today. Alongside Bank of Ireland it is seen as the rock of Irish banking.

During the property boom in the 2000s the bank was a late participant in the mania but there is evidence that once it arrived at the party it wasted no time in trying to catch up with the existing party-goers. The Minister for Finance estimates that the bank’s remaining NAMA loans are worth 40c in the euro (including long term economic value).

Its most recent set of accounts for the first six months of 2010 show that the bank had assets of €169bn, liabilities of €160bn and capital of €9bn. So it is a huge business in an Irish context but clearly solvent by reference to these results. Unfortunately the results don’t reflect the true condition of the loan assets. The cumulative provision for losses on NAMA loans in the interim results was 26% – that is, the loans were worth 74c in the euro. The most recent ministerial estimate is 40c in the euro. This should result in a further loss to AIB of €5.5bn. But NAMA loans form a small part of AIB’s total loanbook and the company will have some €81bn of non-NAMA loans (plus €4.5bn of €5-20m formerly NAMA loans) once NAMA has absorbed the poison. The cumulative provision on these loans in June 2010 was just €3bn (note 22 on page 83). Given that these loans include commercial property and business lending in a state which has suffered the greatest contraction in GDP amongst developed countries in modern times, I would suggest that provision is utter fantasy.

Like some shady cash-in-hand sole trader, AIB maintain a second set of books under the auspices of the Financial Regulator who in March this year set out the capital requirements for AIB and other banks (the Prudential Capital Assessment Review). In September using this second set of books, the Regulator announced that AIB needed raise €10.4bn by the end of this year. AIB’s strategy was to dispose of some assets and then to raise additional equity underwritten by the State. There is a detailed entry on these capital raising efforts here but in summary the bank disposed of its Polish operation (still subject to approvals) which yielded €2.5bn capital from the €3.1bn sale price and yesterday AIB held an EGM in which shareholders approved the sale of the bank’s stake in US bank M&T which should add €0.9bn to the capital coffers. The bank announced yesterday that it was placing the sale of the UK operation on hold (though there appears to be some back-pedalling on these comments this morning). Unless there is some dynamic between the UK sale and capital that means that the bank still needs €7bn in new capital in the next 60 days. And there is only sucker with that level of available funding that is willing to invest in what is likely to be an insolvent bank, and that’s the government who seem intent on placing just under one half of our National Pension Reserve Fund (that’s the €3.5bn invested in preference shares last year and the €7bn now needed as a proportion of the €24bn funds in the NPRF) in one basket (case) – AIB.

The government strategy seems chauvinistic (“we need a duopoly of Irish banks”), knee-jerked, immoral (not a word you’ll often see on here but taking money from the pension fund to prop up an insolvent bank is flagitious when there are other options to protect a functioning banking system), recklessly risky (one half of the pension fund is “invested” in one company in one sector). AIB should be taken into 100% state ownership immediately, the State should assess the value of any shareholdings in AIB (I expect they are worth nothing), negotiate with the €4bn+ of junior bondholders the company had at June 2010 and assess if senior bondholders might make a contribution to the insolvent bank. Only then should the State assess the systemic importance of AIB and should probably seek a buyer for the rump of that company. Even if the state is left with only one Irish bank so what? We have a Financial Regulator with 520 staff that should be able to regulate a restricted market to combat uncompetitive practices and when the Irish economy recovers other banks may see prospects here.

If on the other hand, we maintain the pretence that AIB is a viable bank then €7bn will need be found in the next 60 days. At the very best we are set to lose €1.8bn if we continue with the madness of the NPRF underwriting a share issue at €0.50 per share when the shares are presently trading at €0.35. With the healthiest Irish bank, Bank of Ireland, having to borrow 3-year funds at 5.875% last week (excluding costs) in a market where mortgages and commercial lending is still available at 3%, the prospects for profitability at AIB are slim in the context of the NPRF’s investment strategy which allows it invest in any market across the globe.

It is time to say our goodbyes and pull the plug.

source http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2010/11/02/is-it-time-to-let-aib-go/

Comment:

Unfortunately this government is hell bent on holding on to this once trophy bank along with the top notch gangsters and X Politicians at the helm who will not vote themselves out of this sought after gig

Since the Minister of Finance himself says that the still remaindering loans are only worth 40c in the euro this alone tells me that the bank is gone beyond repair, as every one of his pronouncements on figures have been totally out.  I expect that you wouldn’t even get 10 cent on the euro The cost is irrelevant as the down trodden taxpayers are going to pay up.This Bank is dead and powering billions into it is tantamount to treason.

Shut this toxic toilet down now and save us the poor taxpayers a little bit of pain!

Thomas

Residents movement for political change

Is NAMA facing another cash-flow crisis?

 Is NAMA facing another cash-flow crisis? And where is that second quarter NAMA report that was due nearly a month ago?
namawinelake | October 25, 2010 at 10:56 am | Categories: NAMA | URL: http://wp.me/pNlCf-IJ

It came as a surprise to many that in May 2010, NAMA needed a €250m “working capital advance” repayable in October 2010. A surprise because NAMA already had €100m of capital (€51m from the “independent” private sector and €49m from the State) and also NAMA had taken over €16bn of loans and at least a third were supposed to be performing. Anyway, a €250m advance was provided by the Minister for Finance and was revealed in the Dail a day before it was disclosed in the May 2010 Exchequer statement. Today NAMA has less than a week to repay the €250m. This entry examines the likelihood of that happening, the probability of another bail-out (or “working capital buffer advance” in the language of Upper Merrion Street). The entry again asks about NAMA’s quarterly report and accounts which was due by the end of September 2010 (relating to the second quarter to 30th June 2010) – why is there a delay and is the delay due to the consideration of any excision from the report?
I believe NAMA is facing a liquidity crisis – remember that term from the banking crisis? It’s supposed to refer to a situation where NAMA is due cash (either in interest or capital or from its euro paper programme) but can’t actually lay its hands on the readies, and meanwhile there are developers pleading for working capital and indeed salaries around the €200k per annum mark if you believe some of yesterday’s newspaper reporting. The reasons I believe NAMA is facing a liquidity crisis are as follows:
(1) Although the NAMA Act allows NAMA to raise up to €5bn in lending to assist with working capital needs and in particular to help with finishing out projects, NAMA only initiated the programme to raise some of this money at the start of September 2010. At the time NAMA confirmed that it intended issuing €2.5bn of short-term debt and that the debt would be State-guaranteed.  Four weeks later the government announced its withdrawal from the bond markets until 2011 citing ridiculously high interest rates. Where does that leave NAMA with its State-guaranteed paper? There has not been any update to the programme by NAMA since the start of September 2010. Has it been abandoned?
(2) NAMA unexpectedly received €250m as a “working capital buffer advance” in May 2010. This advance was to be recoupable in October 2010. The advance was not signposted at all in the Dail and was only revealed at the start of June 2010 when Deputy Richard Bruton asked a question about NAMA’s funding (as it happened the next day the May 2010 Exchequer statement revealed the existence of the advance).
(3) Although we don’t yet have the second quarter NAMA report and accounts we do know that the proportion of performing loans has reduced from 40% in the draft Business Plan to 33% in April 2010 to 25% in June 2010. Has the situation since improved? What exactly is a performing loan and does it denote loans which might have roll-up interest provisions? If we had the Q2 accounts we might be able to surmise the cash flow from “performing loans”. Alas we don’t. It was supposed to have been delivered by NAMA to the Department of Finance by 30th September, 2010. Remember it relates to the second quarter ending 30th June, 2010 so it’s not as if NAMA had to rush to produce the information – it had 90 days. Has NAMA produced the report and accounts and if so, why is the Department of Finance sitting on it? We have learned to be very cautious when we get broadbrush statements from the DoF in recent times – “turning the corner”, “broadly in line with expectations”, the god of all gods “international confidence”. I wouldn’t be surprised if the DoF were to say they were too busy with dealing with the budget deficit, the consequences of the banking bailout announcements in September or indeed contingency planning for IMF/EU intervention. But still, are they unable to release a report and accounts which after all should have been produced by professionals in NAMA.
(4) The Independent reports that some six of the first ten developer business plans have been approved by NAMA and that each makes a call on NAMA for additional funding. The Independent also reported some weeks ago that NAMA had spent €40m in the second quarter on “working capital advances”. The Top 10 developers reportedly asked for €1.5bn in advance funding.
(5) NAMA needed to pay the first tranche of interest on NAMA bonds in September 2010. Back of the envelope calculations on here suggest the payment will have been close to €30m.
(6) Three weeks ago in the Dail, Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan said that NAMA would spend €215m on professional fees in 2011. He didn’t give numbers for 2010. But it would not be improbable that NAMA has spent €100m+ in quarters two and three.
(7) Although Brendan McDonagh said that NAMA was at an advanced stage with disposing of €500m of property in September, 2010 there has not been any official announcement of any sale. There was confusion in September 2010 about whether NAMA intended the €500m to relate to the sale of loans or of real property (if the latter then the sale would have been by developers under the auspices of NAMA as NAMA has not yet foreclosed on any property, with a potential exception of Paddy Shovlin and the Fitzpatrick brothers’ property securing loans from Bank of Ireland). There has been speculation that NAMA is close to overseeing the sale of property in London and Ireland. On Friday last the FT reported that a sale of a GBP 11m property in the UK might have been agreed by NAMA. And one of the NAMA putative Top 30 Tom McFeely and Larry O’Mahony are said to be the owners of the 30 flats in Mulhuddart (with Martin Ferris acting as receiver) which have been on the market for some time and which HT Meagher O’Reilly said last week had been sold for €1.9m. NAMA hasn’t made any announcements and the sale of the Mulhuddart flats may take some time to complete.
Add these together and it seems probable that NAMA will be unable not only to make the €250m repayment to the Exchequer in October 2010 but may require an additional advance. If we had the overdue report and accounts, we might be able to estimate the probability. No Opposition politician has raised the issue of overdue accounts in the Dail. There are other more pressing economic issues of course but the quarterly report and accounts will be one of the few ways in which NAMA makes itself modestly transparent. If NAMA does require another advance and fails to make the repayment of the €250m May 2010 advance, then some might ask whether in addition to a liquidity crisis, NAMA is suffering from a solvency crisis (that is where its debts represented by its NAMA bonds exceed the value of the assets it has taken over). source http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2010/10/25/is-nama-facing-another-cash-flow-crisis-and-where-is-that-second-quarter-nama-report-that-was-due-nearly-a-month-ago/

Comment:

This is one big black hole and the vested interests have themselves well placed with huge salaries and pension entitlements thanks to Brian Lenihan and his cronies.

We the taxpayers will have to keep pouring  billions into this toxic dump until sanity prevails and we in the middle ground at long last make the politicians live according to the same criteria we have to live ourselves  we need people with responsibility and accountability. This madness must be brought to an end for the sake of our own financial well being!

If we want to hold on to our homes we must bring sanity back to the countries fiscal objectives  .

The Poor can’t pay

These two Videos were sent to me to -day and are a powerful reminder of the real tragedy that so many of our people are going through as a result of the current economic crises

We must make sure that the venerable are not made the scapegoats for the mishandling of the economy by the political elite of this country  .

Letter in Saturday’s Irish Times…

Letter in Saturday’s Irish Times…

A chara,

I write to voice my concern about the future of this country. I am sitting on the steps of the Department of Justice & Law Reform, the sun is beating down on my shoulders and I write to expel a dark thought from my mind. What is to become of the disenfranchised generation of Irish citizens whose future happiness and prosperity in this country has been cast in great black shadows by the criminal activities of our financial institutions and the gross mismanagement of our national affairs by our trusted Government?

Like so many other young Irishmen and women, my partner and I have decided to leave Ireland to live and work in another country. I came to the city today to prepare some things for our trip and to say goodbye to the capital for a while, to soak in some of her unique flavour before departing for Perth in Australia. What is it that makes Ireland a special country? What are the deepest moral values that are the foundations of Irish society? As I walk, thinking about Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan’s recent announcement of the country’s national debt (death?) I was deeply concerned not that I no longer knew what this core moral value might be, but saddened to find that I no longer care.

Seemingly, the woeful economic state we find ourselves in is merely a symptom of a far more threatening problem – a spiritual or existential crisis at play in Irish society. My own sense of moral apathy makes me think a deep wound has been inflicted by the bankers’ greed and it is not in our pockets but sadly in the collective heart of the Irish people. We can endure the toxic financial wreck that is Nama’s balance sheet, the grossly unfair debt saddled so abruptly on honest, hard-working tax-payers.

We cannot endure however, the sheer sense of injustice and the total loss of moral law at the filthy hands of these so-called rogues and sleeveens (it is equally disheartening to see we have had cause over the years to establish a colloquialism to best describe such recurrent characters in Irish society).

An example has been set by the leaders of this country that their selfish and cynical behavior is an acceptable discourse in modern Ireland. Our potential to act meaningfully and righteously in this society has been shrouded in this cynicism by the greedy, ignorant brutes that head our banks and by the lackluster unimaginative politicians that sit in our Government offices.

As a young able man I am ashamed that my chosen course of action is not violent protest (there should be rioting in the streets outside Dáil Eireann and Anglo Irish Bank); rather I choose to leave the wreckage – feeling as if a bully has just entered the playing field, burst the ball and walked away.

Sitting outside the Department of Justice Law Reform, whose steps feel like empty totems of the now laughable notion of justice, I think that the task at hand is not to set the country’s financial institutions back on track. It is to inspire an entire generation of skilled workers leaving our shores to return at some point to rebuild Ireland in the spirit of honesty and hard work, with a belief in our ability to live for the prosperity of others as well as ourselves. – Yours, etc,

BEN MULLEN,

Raheen Park,

Bray, Co Wicklow.

Comment:

The sad fact is we are losing the very best of our people to the rest of the world and I believe it is a policy of our current government to encourage this state of affairs. They keep the unemployment figures down and they don’t need to worry that new people will challenge the status quo at the next elections and they can carry on screwing the rest of us !

As a family man it is not possible for me to abandon Ireland nor do I wish to do so I will stand and fight for what I believe is right. We have a beautiful country with one of Europe’s oldest cultures, a proud tradition of rebellion against ternary

The fact it is we are been betrayed by people calling themselves Irishmen is an insult to the past generations of patriots who died for Ireland

Where are the modern patriots of to-day who will stand up against the crooks infesting the Dail and the gangsters that have taken control of the financial resources of our country thus rendering our independence worthless? We are no more independent than we were at the height of English rule!

If you don’t control your own finances you are not in control of your own life the same rules apply for countries. I just feel so “mad” and nobody is responsible, the lunatics are running the asylum somebody has got to do something !

Remember This?

Howard Beale: I don’t have to tell you things are bad. Everybody knows things are bad. It’s a depression. Everybody’s out of work or scared of losing their job., banks are going bust, Punks are running wild in the street and there’s nobody anywhere who seems to know what to do, and there’s no end to it. We know the air is unfit to breathe and our food is unfit to eat, and we sit watching our TV’s while some local newscaster tells us that today we had fifteen homicides and sixty-three violent crimes, as if that’s the way it’s supposed to be. We know things are bad – worse than bad. They’re crazy. It’s like everything everywhere is going crazy, so we don’t go out anymore. We sit in the house, and slowly the world we are living in is getting smaller, and all we say is, ‘Please, at least leave us alone in our living rooms. Let me have my toaster and my TV and my steel-belted radials and I won’t say anything. Just leave us alone.’ Well, I’m not gonna leave you alone. I want you to get mad! I don’t want you to protest. I don’t want you to riot – I don’t want you to write to your congressman because I wouldn’t know what to tell you to write. I don’t know what to do about the depression and the inflation and the Russians and the crime in the street.

All I know is that first you’ve got to get mad.

Tag Cloud