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Posts tagged ‘Technical analysis’

Bank of America

Bank of America (BAC) — This is the second largest U.S.-based financial holding company with global assets of more than $2.1 trillion. Year-end reviews by Wall Street analysts resulted in upgrades. Reported earnings for 2011 were just $0.01. In 2012, the company earned $0.25. The newly revised consensus for 2013 is $0.91 and $1.36 for 2014.

On May 15, I wrote, “Technically, BAC broke from a 10-month cup-and-handle formation in early December, a clear sign of the beginning of a major move higher… The breakout confirms that BAC is still a strong buy. The immediate trading target is $15, but long-term investors could reap a much higher return.”

On July 23, the stock hit my trading target with a high of $15.03. Since then, profit-taking has taken a small bite out of these gains, and the stock has been stabilizing at its 50-day moving average.

The bull channel is powerful, momentum is strong, and MACD just issued a buy signal. Buy BAC at its 50-day moving average with a trading target of $20. As before, long-term investors could reap a much higher reward by holding this stock as a cornerstone investment.



By Thomas
I am Long on this stock and concur with this Price target withen the next 12 months

Ist going to be a good one !

Wealthbuilder Market Brief 1st March 2013 (Christopher Quigley)

By: Christopher Quigley

What a market. Even the most experienced traders  that I know are having a difficult time getting a handle on what is happening.  Wednesday’s market action caught a lot of folk napping. Monday’s 216 point drop in the Dow Industrials  convinced many that finally the much anticipated market “correction” had  arrived.

The slight “uptick” on Tuesday was a classic VIX buy  signal but it turned out to be a trap. Those traders who shorted the market on  the 26th were pulverized by the bullish 175 Dow point move on the 27th.

What can we make of such whiplash moves?

For me, regardless of the economy, the movement of  the market is understandable when you assess it through the paradigm of Dow  Theory. The market is powering forward because technically it is very strong.  This strength was first indicated by the 128 point breakout in the Dow  Transports on the second of January. Prior to this the Dow 20 had traded within  a trading line for nearly a year. It was perfectly clear to Dow Theory  aficionados that the momentum and the direction of any breakout from this “range  line” would be highly significant. The 307 point follow through move on the Dow  Industrials on the same day as the Trannies breakout confirmed the trend. With  Dow Theory  “ a trend once in place  continues until both indices confirm otherwise”. Nothing has happened in the  last few days to alter this January bull move. Thus the correct trading  strategy at the moment is to go long on pullbacks not short “potential” tops.

full report Wealthbuilder Market Brief 1st March 2013

Stock Market Cyclical Trend Forecast 2013

By: Jim_Curry

As we forge ahead into the year 2013, I wanted to post an article going over   the complete yearly forecast path, as suggested by the various time cycles that   I track – and also with other indicators such as seasonal patterns, the Bradley   indicator, and also the post-election ‘presidential cycle’ pattern in   stocks.

With the above said and noted, the projected path for 2013 looks somewhat   similar to that seen in 2012, though with a larger percentage correction being   expected in the second-half of the year – primarily due to the position of the   larger 180-day, 360-day (18-month) and four-year cycles. In- between, there   should the normal up-and-down gyrations along the way, ideally with a peak in   here in January ideally giving way to a low in February, prior to returning to   strength again into late-Spring or early-Summer, setting up for that important   top with the 360-day wave.

As for the various time cycles that I track, the 45-day cycle is seen as 10   days along and is currently labeled as bullish. The 90-day cycle is seen as 40   days along and is also labeled as bullish, while the larger 180-day wave is seen   as 40 days along and is regarded as bullish. The 360-day cycle is 322 days along   and is currently labeled as neutral, while the four-year cycle is 972 days along   and is also regarded as neutral at the present time.

full article at source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article38534.html

Market Forging Higher, Not Yet Warning of a Top

By Sam Collins

One of the remarkable technical events of the past 12 months is the breakout and blast-off of the Dow Jones Transportation Average. On Tuesday, the index set a new all-time high after breaking from a 10-month consolidation in early December.

RSI is somewhat overbought, and Tuesday’s spike to new highs could lead to some profit-taking. But the momentum of this remarkable performance is usually predictive of a better-performing economy, and thus, a pullback in this or any index should be viewed as a buying opportunity.

Conclusion: Despite the lack of volume, stocks appear headed to new highs, boosted by better-than-expected retail sales and the anticipation of a better economic climate. Even the breakdown of the most influential technology stock of the decade (Apple), the fiscal cliff, and the threat of a U.S. bond default have failed to stop the advance………….

full article at source: http://investorplace.com/2013/01/daily-stock-market-news-market-forging-higher-not-yet-warning-of-a-top/?sid=KE8137&cp=OZDT&ct=201301116&cc=eletter&en=4524897

Stock Market Bottom is In, Year End Forecasts

By: Toby_Connor

In my last couple of articles I mentioned that I was waiting for the S&P to form a swing low as the first confirmation that an intermediate degree bottom had formed. That swing is going to form on the open Monday morning.

Typically the stock market will rally fairly aggressively out of one of these major intermediate bottoms, often gaining 6%-8% in the first 15-20 days. At that point the market will dip down into a half cycle low that will establish the trend line for this particular daily cycle.

Since the dollar is now on the 21st day of its daily cycle it is now overdue for a move down into a short-term low. This should drive the first half of that 6%-8% move, followed by a very short corrective move as the dollar bounces and then rolls over quickly into a another leg down.

That cycle would be due to bottom around the first of the year, and should drive the stock market generally higher until early January at which time we should get a more significant correction, probably as nervousness builds before the next earnings season.I’ve diagrammed the general directions and rough targets for what I think will unfold over the next month and a half in the chart below.

full article at source:http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article37621.html


Bad Prospects for Extension of Stock Market Rally

By Andre_Gratian

SPX: Very Long-term trend – The very-long-term cycles are down and, if   they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over) there will   be another steep and prolonged decline into late 2014. It is probable, however,   that the steep correction of 2007-2009 will have curtailed the full downward   pressure potential of the 120-yr cycle.

SPX: Intermediate trend – SPX has made a triple top, which is a   bearish pattern. It has now given a strong indication that an intermediate   correction is underwayAnalysis of the short-term trendis done on a daily basis with the   help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and   weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.Market Overview

After several days of resisting the downtrend, the indices finally started to   rally on October 26. The SPX tacked on 31 points from Wednesday’s 1403 low, but   met with heavy selling on the next day after nearing its top declining channel   line, and retraced .618 of its advance. The Dow and NDX suffered the same   fate.

I had warned that the SPX would reach a resistance level at the opening and   to expect at least a consolidation. However, what started as profit-taking   became more intense as the day progressed and, by the close, the index had lost   all of its previous day’s gain, and filling the gap which had been created on   Thursday. In the process it came to rest on the support level created by the   base which had formed prior to the rally. Now the question is whether this was   only a severe but normal correction of the uptrend which started at 1403, or if   the counter-trend rally is already over. With cycles expected to start making   their lows as early as next week, the uptrend does not have time on its   side.

There is also a matter of an unfilled P&Fcount to 1395 and Fib projection   to 1386. While (near-term) the election may play a role in the background   uncertainty and resulting volatility, we know that the odds favor a continued   decline of intermediate proportion into January 2013.

Because of its influence on the market (especially the NDX), AAPL has to be   considered a key — if not the most important — short-term indicator. On Friday   it made a new correction low, losing almost 20 points, and was definitely partly   responsible for the overall market weakness. There was relentless selling until,   by the close it had reached what could be an important Fibonacci projection.   That projection taken from the high of 705 has already proved its effectiveness   by producing several temporary holds on the way down: at 626, 613, at 591 – all   of them important Fib measurements………………………….

full article at source:  http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article37345.html

Stock Market Brief Correction Due, then Higher Into November Election

By: Jim_Curry

It has been a while since I have posted an article, and – due to some recent email requests – I wanted to take a detailed look as we move into the latter part of 2012, based upon what the larger time cycles are currently suggesting. In addition, we will take a look at the shorter-term picture, to see what the U.S. markets may hold in store in the days/weeks to come.We will start with the big-picture, and then move gradually down to the smaller timeframes.

The Four Year Cycle The four-year cycle (chart above) is one of the larger cycles that I track – and is the one that is most .Statistically significant for longer-term traders and investors. It’s last bottom is seen as the 3/6/09 low of 666.79 for the S&P 500, which means that it is currently 895 trading days along from the same.
This cycle is currently in the process of going over a very wide top, and is ideally looking to peak somewhere between November of this year and the first month or three of 2013.

The next bottom for this four-year time cycle is projected to materialize around late-2013 or early-to- mid 2014, with a particular focus on the latter timeframe – simply due to the fact that it is the next scheduled low within the ‘presidential cycle’ pattern. The presidential cycle pattern denotes that the various U.S. stock indexes are normally weaker in the two following years after an election (here, 2013 and 2014), and then is strongest the next two years. We are certainly seeing this right now,…………………………….

full article at source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/UserInfo-Jim_Curry.html

Current Position of the Market

By: Andre_Gratian

SPX: Very Long-term trend – The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over) there will be another steep and prolonged decline into late 2014. It is probable, however, that the steep correction of 2007-2009 will have curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 120-yr cycle.

SPX: Intermediate trend – SPX is in a limited intermediate uptrend which is estimated to end in the first week of Au

Market Overview

Ever since the SPX started its uptrend from 1267, I projected that the rally would end at about 1404. That was a target derived from a Point & Figure count taken across the base and confirmed by a Fibonacci measurement. While this is a preferred count, it is not an absolute, and there is a valid count to 1425 and some even higher. Last Tuesday, the index rose to 1407 before backing off and spending the rest of the week moving sideways in what could turn out to be a pattern of distribution — which would put an end to the rally, resulting in a subsequent decline, or one of re-accumulation, with an eventual break-out to the upside followed by higher prices

Next week should determine what path the market wants to follow over the near-term. Taking into consideration the cyclic configuration, the odds favor an end to the rally sometime this month, with a preference for the first part of August. Friday’s price action was caused by a minor cycle bottoming in the first hour which initiated a bounce into the close. Although that looks like the start of a move to higher highs, some important indices did not participate, bringing into question whether this was simply a test of the highs. On the other hand, XIV made a new high while the market did not — action which is potentially bullish (but not infallible). This is why we need to wait for Monday to clarify the market’s intention.

Whether or not we are ready for an intermediate correction, the odds of this being a major top which would put an end to the bull market are not great. During this uptrend, the weekly indicators of the SPX had a bullish move to the top of their range and are now overbought, a condition from which they normally correct, but not one from which they start a major decline. On the other hand, the NDX weekly indicators are less bullish and are beginning to show negative divergence

Full article at source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article36023.html

More Stock Market Interim Rally Ahead?

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Very Long-term trend – The very-long-term cycles are down and, if   they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over) there will   be another steep and prolonged decline into late 2014. It is probable, however,   that the steep correction of 2007-2009 will have curtailed the full downward   pressure potential of the 120-yr cycle.

SPX: Intermediate trend – Correction

Market Overview

The market correction which started in early April is not over and, based on   cycles, may run into late-July/early-August before it is. Six days ago, the SPX   completed a phase projection and has been consolidating since. From a cyclical   viewpoint, there are two possible scenarios for what lies directly ahead: there   is a cycle cluster due in mid-June which could turn out to be a high or a low   point for the market. I lean toward its being a high because of the more   dominant cycles that have recently bottomed, and are about to bottom in the next   few days, and which will be setting the trend for the following couple of weeks.   (If there is enough upward pressure from the longer-term cycle which has already   made its low, it is possible that SPX might even start extending its uptrend   past the recent highs right away.)

If this is the case, the current consolidation should end with an extension   of the interim rally to about 1340 or higher. It will be followed by the final   leg of the correction into the time frame mentioned above, and could reach as   low as 1235-1245 before it ends. If this turns out to be the completion of wave   4 from 1075, the index should then start wave 5 and rise to a new high before   completing it.

This forecast is a guesstimate based on cycles and structure. It will be   refined or modified, if need be, as the market trend evolves.

Chart analysis

On the Daily Chart, we see that SPX is now traveling in the blue   channel which defines its current trend. If the target which I have set for the   low of the correction is valid, the decline should end outside of the channel   and find support on the lower green line, just as it did on the upper one. For   now, the 200-DMA is also adding temporary support. It has already been violated,   but it does not matter even if it is decisively broken, providing that prices   can move back above it as they did during last year’s August to December   consolidation.

On the P&F chart, there were two separate phases of distribution which   formed at the SPX top. The shortest one, taken across 1411, gave us a count to   1304 which was slightly exceeded as the decline ran its course.

There is another count that could be taken at the 1397 level that has stored   enough negative energy to take prices down as low as 1235, although the likely   bottoming range should be somewhere between 1235 and 1255. I’ll be able to   refine this count as soon as the current consolidation is over.

full article at source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article34887.html

The CCI developed some divergence at the recent low, and this argues for an   extension of the interim rally before the correction continues. The MACD has no   such divergence, only slight deceleration. This suggests that lower prices will   be seen before the correction is over.

Stock Market Downtrend May Have Bottomed

By: Tony_Caldaro

Markets rebounded this week after last week’s nasty selloff. Last week’s decline of SPX/DOW 3.9% was the largest weekly decline in six months. The previous one was the week of November 21, 2011: a 4.75% decline that marked the end of Major wave 2. Thus far, it looks like the recent selloff may have marked the end of Major wave 4. For the week the SPX/DOW were +1.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were +2.05%. Asian markets were flat, European markets were +0.6%, and the DJ World index gained 0.7%. On the economic front it was a mixed week. All five the publicly watched indicators were higher: existing/new home sales,

FHFA housing prices, durable goods orders and consumer sentiment. Yet, four of the not so publicly watched indicators we track were all lower: the M1- multiplier, new home sale prices, the monetary base and the WLEI. The last week of May starts off with a US holiday, then is followed by a slew of economic reports. Q1 GDP, the Payrolls report and PCE prices highlight the week.

LONG TERM: bull market

While we entertained some alternates counts for the medium term last week. None of them suggested this Mar 2009 bull market was over. Even though the market hit a level which was about 2% lower than expected. It did hit a medium term oversold level that has only occurred once in each of the past four years. Each time this has occurred, the market has rallied about 100 SPX points within two weeks. Currently the market has only risen 36 points, 1292-1328, with a week to go. If this pattern prevails this week could be quite interesting.

full article at source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article34868.html

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