What is truth?

Posts tagged ‘Stocks and Bonds’

Stock Market S&P Bear Calls Have ALL Missed

Salivating Bears have been calling for a market top for over 4 years, now, and none have been right. The sentiment is understood but misplaced. This goes to show how markets are not predictable, but people are. So many want to exercise the FILO inventory premise: First In Last Out. It is so difficult to check egos at the door for there is a huge difference in being right and being profitable.

Those who choose to be right often find themselves on the loosing end. Those who choose to be profitable always have a game plan. Game plans rarely pick tops or bottoms, the most unprofitable areas for trading. The best source for market information comes from the market itself, and from what we can see, there has been no indication that a top has formed. It is possible the market is getting there, but getting there and being there are not the same. Always to stick to a proven game plan.

The message of the market is best viewed from the charts, and we are using the E-Mini.

An associate of ours has observed that market rallies tend to last 15-20 weeks, and the current rally is in week 20. A correction, of some sort, is now due, this week, next week, it cannot be known until it happens, but the Time factor is ever-present.

Last week was an OKR, [Outside Key Reversal], defined by a higher high and lower low from the preceding week, and in this one, a lower close, [the close can higher, lower or unchanged]. The word “Reversal” provides a clue as to near term expectations. Not ours, necessarily, but as in the acronym, OKR.

The one factor outweighing the rest is the trend, and the trend for stocks is up. Trends tend to persist, and it takes time to turn one around. Time equates to patience, and it is patience that is the undoing of a great many traders. There have been so many calling for a top, as we have observed from comments and expectations over the last 4 years.

In an up trend, demand is already a proven factor. It is supply, or sellers who bear the burden of proof for making a change, and that has not yet happened. The groundwork already exists for a correction, but it is impossible to know, in advance, if it will be a normal correction, and lately, they have been 9-10 days in duration, or if it will signal the potential of a topping formation.

Identifying the trend as up does not mean one should not be cautious or unprepared for a market turn, but the caution would be in the form of taking profits and/or using close stops. It does not mean going short. Even the 2008 market top took a few months to develop…………………

full article at source : http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article39842.html

Dow Stock Market New All Time High, Exponential Inflation and Multiple Technological Revolutions

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The stock market has continued to confound the academic proponents of the the debt deflation mantra who have in perfect perma bear style been banging their heads continuously against a four year stealth bull market that has marched all the way to an new NEW All Time Closing High of DJIA 14,253.77

Many academic economists and journalists who think they are economists and salesmen will be commentating at length over the next few days by looking in their rear view mirrors to explain why the stock market has risen, despite the fact that these same people can be quickly googled be found to have repeatedly claimed over many times that the rally in the stock market was unsustainable and would imminently end.

Virtually all of the reasons put forward will be wrong as especially academic economists will find themselves floundering all over the place to explain why the stock market can trade at new all time highs whilst their economic statistics say that a triple dip recession suggests the exact opposite should be true, because the actual key drivers of the unfolding stealth bull stocks market as covered in depth in the recent Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond ebook (FREE DOWNLOAD), are that general stock market indices as the Dow are geared towards oscillating around an exponential inflation mega-trend towards which stocks are leveraged, which is why they will ALWAYS converge towards and BREAK to New All Time Highs, including that the Dow level of 14,200 was the forecast conclusion of 2 years ago in the preceding Stocks Stealth Bull Market ebook of March 2011……………………….

full article at source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article39342.html

Market Forging Higher, Not Yet Warning of a Top

By Sam Collins

One of the remarkable technical events of the past 12 months is the breakout and blast-off of the Dow Jones Transportation Average. On Tuesday, the index set a new all-time high after breaking from a 10-month consolidation in early December.

RSI is somewhat overbought, and Tuesday’s spike to new highs could lead to some profit-taking. But the momentum of this remarkable performance is usually predictive of a better-performing economy, and thus, a pullback in this or any index should be viewed as a buying opportunity.

Conclusion: Despite the lack of volume, stocks appear headed to new highs, boosted by better-than-expected retail sales and the anticipation of a better economic climate. Even the breakdown of the most influential technology stock of the decade (Apple), the fiscal cliff, and the threat of a U.S. bond default have failed to stop the advance………….

full article at source: http://investorplace.com/2013/01/daily-stock-market-news-market-forging-higher-not-yet-warning-of-a-top/?sid=KE8137&cp=OZDT&ct=201301116&cc=eletter&en=4524897

Surprise! Spain Makes The Same Ass-Backwards Mistake That The US and UK Made – Banning Shortselling

By ReggieMiddleton

Spain has crossed the rubicon, and entered into bad decision nirvana as it too decided to ban short selling, which has worked so well for all of those other smart countries which have done so. For instance, when the US did it in 2008, they helped their bank’s shares float to the tune of -48%! Hey, with friends like that, who needs enemies. When will they learn that tempering/tampering with financial markets is not ever as good as it sounds. Keep in mind that short sales put a natural floor under weak securities by creating natural sellers at the end or a trade (whether the trade is successful or not). If the stock is truly overvalued (hear’s to you European banks), then the shares are going to drop anyway as the holders of those shares sell to get out of them. Without shorts, there will be no buying on the way down as speculators and astute investors cover profitable short sales and the only bids you will get are at rock bottom where fundamental guys feel there “deals that can’t be refused” (except for the occasional BTFD fools along the way). That is usually a bid that’s much higher than would have been achieved through the short sale. Of course, nobody explained this to the Spanish

full article at source: http://boombustblog.com/blog/item/6126-surprise-spain-makes-the-same-ass-backwards-mistake-that-the-us-and-uk-made-banning-shortselling

Stock Market Downtrend May Have Bottomed

By: Tony_Caldaro

Markets rebounded this week after last week’s nasty selloff. Last week’s decline of SPX/DOW 3.9% was the largest weekly decline in six months. The previous one was the week of November 21, 2011: a 4.75% decline that marked the end of Major wave 2. Thus far, it looks like the recent selloff may have marked the end of Major wave 4. For the week the SPX/DOW were +1.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were +2.05%. Asian markets were flat, European markets were +0.6%, and the DJ World index gained 0.7%. On the economic front it was a mixed week. All five the publicly watched indicators were higher: existing/new home sales,

FHFA housing prices, durable goods orders and consumer sentiment. Yet, four of the not so publicly watched indicators we track were all lower: the M1- multiplier, new home sale prices, the monetary base and the WLEI. The last week of May starts off with a US holiday, then is followed by a slew of economic reports. Q1 GDP, the Payrolls report and PCE prices highlight the week.

LONG TERM: bull market

While we entertained some alternates counts for the medium term last week. None of them suggested this Mar 2009 bull market was over. Even though the market hit a level which was about 2% lower than expected. It did hit a medium term oversold level that has only occurred once in each of the past four years. Each time this has occurred, the market has rallied about 100 SPX points within two weeks. Currently the market has only risen 36 points, 1292-1328, with a week to go. If this pattern prevails this week could be quite interesting.

full article at source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article34868.html

High Risk of Near Term Global Financial, Stock Market Crash

By: Steven_Vincent

Deutsch: Bulle und Bär vor der Frankfurter Bör...

Deutsch: Bulle und Bär vor der Frankfurter Börse von Reinhard Dachlauer English: Bull and bear in front of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

At each juncture, I look at the available information as represented in the market price and technical data. I approach the body of evidence without preconception and with an open “beginner’s mind”. I see what I see. I analyze. I develop a set of probabilistic outcomes and then rank them. Then I write my report. I simply report my findings.

There is an extraordinarily high risk of some variety of global market panic in the relatively near term. In fact, I would say that there is a extant setup that is as perfectly aligned for an extreme market event as could be dreamed of by the most bearish of permabears. I’m no permabear, but a thorough review of the current price and technical charts has revealed an inordinate confluence of data points which collaborate to represent a very high risk profile. The current extreme risk profile is amplified by a nearly total lack of recognition on the part of market participants. A deflationary episode, potentially on the scale of the 2008 event, is presently on the table. Investors would do well to at least consider the facts, analysis and conclusions of this report.

BULLISH CONSENSUS

I generally place Sentiment and Psychology at the bottom layers of my analysis since it it the softest and least reliable data to consider, but in this case I am going to lead with it simply because there appears to be not merely a significant gap between perception and reality but apparently a widening chasm. Bulls are repeatedly citing “excessive” or “extreme” Bearishness as a primary basis for an ongoing Bullish outlook, but the evidence strongly suggests this is not only not warranted but that the exact opposite conditions prevail.

There appears to be nearly total complacency in the present market environment. Few if any analysts are currently willing to consider a market top of any kind, much less a crash. Based on the findings in my current BullBear Market Report, the continued bold bullishness of the overwhelming majority is simply not supported by the technicals of the market

Full article at source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article34664.html

Treasuries and Derivatives Blow Up? So Where Do You Go …

By Anthony Wile (Daily Bell)

Here’s some interesting news along the lines of “man bites dog.” According to a recent Reuters article, US financial advisors are actually growing leery of US Treasury bonds.

This is almost unheard of and one could certainly make a case that it is a sign of most unsettled times. Ordinarily, financial advisors, especially those in the US, are disposed to provide Treasuries for most every ill.

They are seen as repositories of value, security and liquidity – and this perspective has been preached relentlessly to the average US consumer.  And yet now we now find a much different perspective, being reported by Reuters:

It’s the newest market riddle: where do you go for safety when the traditional option could be in a bubble?

With fiscal problems in Europe once again leading to sharp drops in global stock markets, many investors are seeking out stable assets that can both protect their principal and generate an income stream to keep up with inflation.

full article at source: http://www.thedailybell.com/3883/Anthony-Wile-Treasuries-and-Derivatives-Blow-Up-So-Where-Do-You-Go

Tag Cloud