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Posts tagged ‘Stock market index’

Stocks Bear Market Looms

By: Zeal_LLC

The US stock markets have enjoyed a  dazzling year, levitating to a long series of new record highs.  But this relentless advance has stalled in  August, with selling pressure mounting.   Even most of the bulls readily agree that a material selloff is overdue  after such a mighty run.  But actually  the odds are high this necessary retreat will extend well beyond normal  pullbacks or even corrections into a new cyclical bear

The mere idea of a looming stock bear is  certainly heretical these days, but this is not surprising.  By early August, the flagship S&P 500  stock index (SPX) had powered an astounding 152.7% higher since March  2009!  Being so deep into such a spectacular  cyclical bull has naturally left speculators and investors very complacent.  Most have forgotten that markets don’t move  in one direction forever, they flow and  ebb.

Still, late in mature cyclical bulls the  ever-rising chances for the birth of a new cyclical bear are the last thing  traders want to hear.  So let’s shelve  that controversial thesis for now and start at common ground.  Nearly every smart bull either expects a  material stock-market selloff or thinks one would be very healthy.  And technical and sentimental indicators are  nearly unanimous in declaring the SPX very overbought.

Discussing all of these would require a  sizable tome, but here’s an overview.  The  SPX is stretched far above its trailing 200-day moving average.   Complacency is extremely high  and fear non-existent as measured by key sentiment gauges.  2013’s SPX levitation has been on low and  dwindling volume and narrowing market breadth, with fewer and fewer individual  stocks maintaining the rally’s momentum.

Students of the markets can elaborate on  these major topping indicators in depth, and expound on dozens more.  So the bears and smart bulls alike definitely  agree that some kind of material selloff in the US stock markets is either  already underway or imminent.  The only  real questions are about its ultimate magnitude and duration.  The difference between a down day and a bear  market is simply one of degree.

This is reflected in how material  stock-market selloffs are categorized.   Anything under 4% is merely a series of down days without any formal  name.  When selloffs extend from 4% to  10% off their preceding highs, they are called pullbacks.  Once they forge  over 10%, they become known as corrections.  And if the selling continues long enough to  push them over 20%, these selloffs become cyclical  bear markets…….

full article at source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article41989.html

Stock Market Brief Correction Due, then Higher Into November Election

By: Jim_Curry

It has been a while since I have posted an article, and – due to some recent email requests – I wanted to take a detailed look as we move into the latter part of 2012, based upon what the larger time cycles are currently suggesting. In addition, we will take a look at the shorter-term picture, to see what the U.S. markets may hold in store in the days/weeks to come.We will start with the big-picture, and then move gradually down to the smaller timeframes.

The Four Year Cycle The four-year cycle (chart above) is one of the larger cycles that I track – and is the one that is most .Statistically significant for longer-term traders and investors. It’s last bottom is seen as the 3/6/09 low of 666.79 for the S&P 500, which means that it is currently 895 trading days along from the same.
This cycle is currently in the process of going over a very wide top, and is ideally looking to peak somewhere between November of this year and the first month or three of 2013.

The next bottom for this four-year time cycle is projected to materialize around late-2013 or early-to- mid 2014, with a particular focus on the latter timeframe – simply due to the fact that it is the next scheduled low within the ‘presidential cycle’ pattern. The presidential cycle pattern denotes that the various U.S. stock indexes are normally weaker in the two following years after an election (here, 2013 and 2014), and then is strongest the next two years. We are certainly seeing this right now,…………………………….

full article at source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/UserInfo-Jim_Curry.html

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