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Posts tagged ‘Statistical significance’

Stock Market Brief Correction Due, then Higher Into November Election

By: Jim_Curry

It has been a while since I have posted an article, and – due to some recent email requests – I wanted to take a detailed look as we move into the latter part of 2012, based upon what the larger time cycles are currently suggesting. In addition, we will take a look at the shorter-term picture, to see what the U.S. markets may hold in store in the days/weeks to come.We will start with the big-picture, and then move gradually down to the smaller timeframes.

The Four Year Cycle The four-year cycle (chart above) is one of the larger cycles that I track – and is the one that is most .Statistically significant for longer-term traders and investors. It’s last bottom is seen as the 3/6/09 low of 666.79 for the S&P 500, which means that it is currently 895 trading days along from the same.
This cycle is currently in the process of going over a very wide top, and is ideally looking to peak somewhere between November of this year and the first month or three of 2013.

The next bottom for this four-year time cycle is projected to materialize around late-2013 or early-to- mid 2014, with a particular focus on the latter timeframe – simply due to the fact that it is the next scheduled low within the ‘presidential cycle’ pattern. The presidential cycle pattern denotes that the various U.S. stock indexes are normally weaker in the two following years after an election (here, 2013 and 2014), and then is strongest the next two years. We are certainly seeing this right now,…………………………….

full article at source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/UserInfo-Jim_Curry.html

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