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Posts tagged ‘Research and Analysis’

New Dow High as Another Stocks Bear Market Goes Up in Smoke

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dow Jones surges to a new all time closing high of 15,460.92 as many market commentators literally never learn! And there is a reason for this.

Bull markets do one thing, and one thing only, they resolve to NEW bull market highs, as that is what ultimately defines what a bull market is, and so the market that I have traded for near 30 years, the DJIA stock index has once more resolved to a new bull market ALL Time High.

Meanwhile those that clearly have a psychological blind spot towards being on the right side of a trend, continuously repeat the same behaviour pattern of betting against the trend as evidenced by the fact that the deeper the recent correction progressed the more vocal they became in their utterances for an end of the bull market that they were never even able to recognise as a  bull market by virtue of what I deem to be ridiculous statements such as that of saying that the stock market bull run of 5 years had just been a cyclical event within a secular  BEAR market. Despite the fact that you will have heard the SAME garbage for over FIVE YEARs now!

To reiterate once more, there is no cyclical or secular ONLY BULL or BEAR, only LONG or SHORT, either that or as is more probably the case those that are most vocal commentators NEVER actually TRADE or INVEST with their OWN money! That is self evident in the fact that had they traded with their own money, then by now they would have gone bust several times over!

full article :http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article41365.html

Stock Market S&P Bear Calls Have ALL Missed

Salivating Bears have been calling for a market top for over 4 years, now, and none have been right. The sentiment is understood but misplaced. This goes to show how markets are not predictable, but people are. So many want to exercise the FILO inventory premise: First In Last Out. It is so difficult to check egos at the door for there is a huge difference in being right and being profitable.

Those who choose to be right often find themselves on the loosing end. Those who choose to be profitable always have a game plan. Game plans rarely pick tops or bottoms, the most unprofitable areas for trading. The best source for market information comes from the market itself, and from what we can see, there has been no indication that a top has formed. It is possible the market is getting there, but getting there and being there are not the same. Always to stick to a proven game plan.

The message of the market is best viewed from the charts, and we are using the E-Mini.

An associate of ours has observed that market rallies tend to last 15-20 weeks, and the current rally is in week 20. A correction, of some sort, is now due, this week, next week, it cannot be known until it happens, but the Time factor is ever-present.

Last week was an OKR, [Outside Key Reversal], defined by a higher high and lower low from the preceding week, and in this one, a lower close, [the close can higher, lower or unchanged]. The word “Reversal” provides a clue as to near term expectations. Not ours, necessarily, but as in the acronym, OKR.

The one factor outweighing the rest is the trend, and the trend for stocks is up. Trends tend to persist, and it takes time to turn one around. Time equates to patience, and it is patience that is the undoing of a great many traders. There have been so many calling for a top, as we have observed from comments and expectations over the last 4 years.

In an up trend, demand is already a proven factor. It is supply, or sellers who bear the burden of proof for making a change, and that has not yet happened. The groundwork already exists for a correction, but it is impossible to know, in advance, if it will be a normal correction, and lately, they have been 9-10 days in duration, or if it will signal the potential of a topping formation.

Identifying the trend as up does not mean one should not be cautious or unprepared for a market turn, but the caution would be in the form of taking profits and/or using close stops. It does not mean going short. Even the 2008 market top took a few months to develop…………………

full article at source : http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article39842.html

New Highs- Bull market continues

Sent into us by Val,Thanks !

by: Peter Brown

Market reached new highs yesterday. After a pull back to support the market put in a strong rally above 1500. There seems no end to the strenght of this market. Driven by a need for return and the lack of interest rates anywhere else it would seem everyone is piling into stocks. It will lead to a correction eventually but we could be a lot higher before that happens.

Today we are off to a strong start. 1498 is support and 1506 is short term target.Market is not overbought so we can go higher. If there is to be a correction it will require some fairly bad news, so Friday NFP numbers are probably the only chance. This market is a buy no question about it. Wait for the dips.

Euro is on a burner higher. 1.3500 and above. There is little on the charts and expect further gains once the stock market rally continues.

Stock Market Downtrend May Have Bottomed

By: Tony_Caldaro

Markets rebounded this week after last week’s nasty selloff. Last week’s decline of SPX/DOW 3.9% was the largest weekly decline in six months. The previous one was the week of November 21, 2011: a 4.75% decline that marked the end of Major wave 2. Thus far, it looks like the recent selloff may have marked the end of Major wave 4. For the week the SPX/DOW were +1.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were +2.05%. Asian markets were flat, European markets were +0.6%, and the DJ World index gained 0.7%. On the economic front it was a mixed week. All five the publicly watched indicators were higher: existing/new home sales,

FHFA housing prices, durable goods orders and consumer sentiment. Yet, four of the not so publicly watched indicators we track were all lower: the M1- multiplier, new home sale prices, the monetary base and the WLEI. The last week of May starts off with a US holiday, then is followed by a slew of economic reports. Q1 GDP, the Payrolls report and PCE prices highlight the week.

LONG TERM: bull market

While we entertained some alternates counts for the medium term last week. None of them suggested this Mar 2009 bull market was over. Even though the market hit a level which was about 2% lower than expected. It did hit a medium term oversold level that has only occurred once in each of the past four years. Each time this has occurred, the market has rallied about 100 SPX points within two weeks. Currently the market has only risen 36 points, 1292-1328, with a week to go. If this pattern prevails this week could be quite interesting.

full article at source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article34868.html

Bear Market Remains Probable

By: Tony_Caldaro

The week started off with a meltdown in Europe. They lost 4.35% on monday
while the US markets were closed. When the US market opened on tuesday, it
gapped down losing about 3%, made the low for the week, rallied nearly 6% from
that low, then ended the week with another meltdown in Europe (-3.20%) closing
about 1% above the low for the week. Economic reports for the week were sparse
with positives edging out negatives four to threeOn the plus side: ISM
services, consumer credit, the trade deficit and wholesale inventories all
improved. On the negative: weekly jobless claims rose, and both the monetary
base and the WLEI declined. For the week the SPX/DOW were -1.95%, and the
NDX/NAZ were -0.35%. Asian markets lost 2.4%, Europe was -3.9%, the Commodity
equity group slid 1.8%, and the DJ World index lost 3.3%. This week we have a
plethora of economic reports and it’s Options expiration week.

LONG TERM: bear market highly probable

We have been posting every day, for some time now, “bear market highly
probable”. What this means is that we suspect we are in a bear market, by the
wave patterns, but it has not yet been confirmed by OEW’s quantitative
analysis. The March 2009 to May/July 2011 bull market unfolded in five
quantified waves. This is quite clear. We have counted these waves as five
Primary waves, expecting this first bull market off the Mar09 Supercycle low to
be of a Cycle wave degree. Historically Cycle waves can last anywhere from one
(1973-1974) to thirty-three years (1974-2007). The shorter ones are typically
bear markets, and the longer ones bull markets.

Financial Markets Outook for Gold, Stocks, Volatility, Euro and Bonds

By: Willem_Weytjens

Let’s start with the SP500.

The SP500 retraced 38.20% of the rally from 2009 to 2011. The 50% Retracement level is often tested. This means we could see 1,020 on the SP500 over the next couple of weeks/months, where the market should find support.

Chart courtesy Stockcharts.com

However, nothing goes up or down in a straight line. After huge sell offs, we often see strong rallies.
The RSI was very oversold recently but has worked itself out of this oversold position over the last couple of days.
A lower low for the SP500 will likely be accompanied by a higher low for the RSI, causing positive divergence.
That’s a time you would want to buy stocks.

see full article at source here: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article30048.html

Trading in the stock market? First learn simple technical analysis

 Two weeks ago, I was asked to accompany a friend to a free open evening hosted by this company Irish Institute of Financial trading

As a trader I am constantly on the lookout for reliable sources that would enhance my trading and give real value and insight as to how I could achieve independence in my finances. Having spent well over 50,000 Euros on every conceivable course type, from options to stock to EFT and even derivatives .I came to the conclusion that there is only one person that can look after my funds and that is myself There are no quick fixes that I can buy that will make me a professional trader and there are no insider tricks that I am not aware of or that I need to buy in order to become a successful trader. Trading is taking a gamble and almost all of the so called strategies require you to be right first time out in order to make money. Most companies I have dealt with maintain that they have the missing key and all you need to do is pay them to divulge this valuable information that only a very few people have in the market place. Some will contend that their software is the missing link and I have software up to my tonsils ,and I can honestly report back that it is of no use and a complete waste of time .I am of course talking here about the various software packages from Optionetics. (I have bought practically all of their products (Profit source, Advanced Get etc .(But other companies will sell you various versions of the same crap) only to find out that you are stuck with having to pay a yearly sum(currently  700$) to use your own software ,what a rip off ) having paid almost 5,000 $ for it in the first place !

Anyway back to the above evening .I am sorry to report back that this company is no better in fact their sales pitch was advanced on their clam to the possession of Pivot points and these pivot points were the reason there were “different”, According to the presenter they started out as a group of guys trading and they were horrified as to the amount of people coming to them not knowing the basis of trading so they decided to become educators instead !That was enough for me ,but I waited to hear more about these pivot points as in all my years of trading (15years) I had never come across pivot points before. Once the presenter showed us an example of these pivot points I immediately recognized what he was talking about. He was using nothing other than “Fibonacci retracement levels” Here is a  video that will explain this concept. But there are hundreds of such videos and each has their own benefits.

 you can just cut and past the highlighted text into Google search and you will get a wealth of information there.

I could go on and on from here but I was not impressed with their presentation .I believe that the Individual must take personal responsibility for their own financial destiny

I received this slide presentation from Chris at www.wealthbuildre.ie  I believe it is the very least you would need to know if you are contemplating investing in the stock markets .These are the main technical analysis indicators they use http://www.slideshare.net/quigleycompany/introduction-to-stock-market-technical-analysis

Good luck in your trading and remember when in doubt stay out!

A Short Biography of Leonardo Pisano Fibonacci

By Deb Russell, About.com Guide

Fibonacci Sketch by Kristin Palm


Also referred to as Leonard of Pisa, Fibonacci was an Itallian number theorist. It is believed that Leonardo Pisano Fibonacci was born in the 13th century, in 1170 (approximately) and that he died in 1250. Fibonacci was born in Italy but obtained his education in North Africa. Very little is known about him or his family and there are no photographs or drawings of him. Much of the information about Fibonacci has been gathered by his autobiographical notes which he included in his books.

However, Fibonacci is considered to be one of the most talented mathematicians for the Middle Ages. Few people realize that it was Fibonacci that gave us our decimal number system (Hindu-Arabic numbering system) which replaced the Roman Numeral system. When he was studying mathematics, he used the Hindu-Arabic (0-9) symbols instead of Roman symbols which didn’t have 0’s and lacked place value. In fact, when using the Roman Numeral system, an abacus was usually required. There is no doubt that Fibonacci saw the superiority of using Hindu-Arabic system over the Roman Numerals. He shows how to use our current numbering system in his book Liber abaci.

The following problem was written in his book called Liber abaci:

A certain man put a pair of rabbits in a place surrounded on all sides by a wall. How many pairs of rabbits can be produced from that pair in a year if it is supposed that every month each pair begets a new pair, which from the second month on becomes productive?

It was this problem that led Fibonacci to the introduction of the Fibonacci Numbers and the Fibonacci Sequence which is what he remains famous for to this day. The sequence is 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55… This sequence, shows that each number is the sum of the two preceding numbers. It is a sequence that is seen and used in many different areas of mathematics and science. The sequence is an example of a recursive sequence. The Fibonacci Sequence defines the curvature of naturally occurring spirals, such as snail shells and even the pattern of seeds in flowering plants. The Fibonacci sequence was actually given the name by a French mathematician Edouard Lucas in the 1870’s.

Fibonacci is famous for his contributions to number theory.

  • In his book, Liber abaci he introduced the Hindu-Arabic place-valued decimal system and the use of Arabic numerals into Europe.
  • He introduced us to the bar we use in fractions, previous to this, the numerator has quotations around it.
  • The square root notation is also a Fibonacci method.

It has been said that the Fibonacci numbers are Nature’s numbering system and apply to the growth of living things, including cells, petals on a flower, wheat, honeycomb, pine cones and much more.

His Books:
Liber Abbaci (The Book of Calculation), 1202 (1228)
Practica Geometriae (The Practice of Geometry), 1220
Liber Quadratorum (The Book of Square Numbers), 1225
Flos (The Flower), 1225
Letter to Master Theodore


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