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Posts tagged ‘Property’

Ronan Lyons and time to face reality!

Ronan Lyons has posted a new item, ‘Time to face reality, as rents start to rise
for family homes’

The latest Daft.ie Rental Report, released today, found that rents nationally
rose in the third quarter, for the first time since early 2008. The urban-rural
difference in trends persists, though. This post looks at trends by bedroom
number, finding rising rents for family homes in most urban segments. A
persistence in thinking about one national property market, however, will
prevent the response required to keep an adequate supply of competitively priced

You may view the latest post at

Irish auction roundup

By Namawinelake

Even though the Allsop Irish auction website was this morning displaying a message saying “our next Irish auction will be held on the 30th November 2011” a representative of Space, Allsop’s local partner, says that the catalogue for the 23rd September 2011 auction will be available later today or tomorrow as details are just now being finalized, and the auction will be going ahead exactly as planned. The publication of the catalogue is two days after the date which had previously been publicized.

full article at source here:http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2011/08/22/irish-auction-roundup-%e2%80%93-large-scale-auctions-to-be-around-for-the-%e2%80%9cbest-part-of-a-decade%e2%80%9d/

How much has NAMA lost on its investment in Irish government bonds?

By Namawinelake

At times you have to have sympathy for NAMA. As an asset management agency whose main assets are properties located in Ireland, the agency has really been up against it to achieve success since its inception in late 2009. The collapse in banking and credit, the deflation of an incredible property bubble, the abolition of Upward Only Rent Review commercial leases for new leases and the threatened retrospective abolition for old leases, an economy which has shrunk or at best is growing academically, the absence of confidence – it really has been a toxic environment for a business whose main purpose is to make money out of property and property-related loans and you can’t blame NAMA for much of the above.

see full article at source : http://wp.me/pNlCf-1GY

Retail rents down 50% from peak in Ireland

By namawinelake 
Property powerhouse and NAMA valuation panel member, CB Richard Ellis (CBRE) yesterday published its quarterly overview of the retail property sector in Ireland. It’s a funny old report as it mixes together some statistics on retail generally and elsewhere confines its reporting to shopping centres or indeed two  streets.  Whilst a little light on detail, it concludes that rent levels are still falling, though at a reduced pace and average retail rents in Ireland are now down 50% from peak levels in 2007.  The note also claims that rent levels continue to come under pressure which suggests further declines in the short term at least.
The report confirms the challenging environment faced by retailers with retail sales excluding cars down 5% year-on-year (car sales benefited from a scrappage scheme which has distorted buying behaviour). Footfall on two ofDublin’s main shopping streets,Grafton StreetandHenry Streetis down 4-10% year on year, suggesting there are fewer customers. On a more positive note,Irelandhas attracted the presence of more global brands.
As regards capital values, the report cites the IPD property index which for retail premises indicates that prices are some 65% off peak levels. There was not one single retail investment transaction in Irelandin Q1, 2011 according to the report and although not stated, the inference is that sales transactions have tailed off across all retail sectors.
The reason? The challenging general economic conditions can’t be helping but the report identifies the proposed (or “threatened” or “committed to”, depending on which side of the debate you stand) abolition of Upward Only Rent Review (UORR) leases which may mean that commercial tenants see their rents falling to open market rents. UORR leases may have rent levels twice that of current open market rents. The Society of Chartered Surveyors in Ireland yesterday called for urgent clarification of intentions in respect of the issue from the justice minister, Alan Shatter.
Interestingly the report concludes that vacancy levels are more or less stable, with vacancy on the two survey Dublin Streets actually dropping considerably in the last 12 months. Because the report seemingly examines shopping centre and retail park vacancy, it is unclear if the “stable” claim applies across the board. Certainly many towns up and down the country seem to have no shortage of vacant premises, though these will not be in shopping centres.
And lastly, the report seems to adopt a curious position on the IMF/EU Memorandum of Understanding commitment for Q3, 2011 “the government will conduct a study on the economic impact of eliminating the cap on the size of retail premises with a view to enhancing competition and lowering prices for consumers and discuss implementation of its policy implications with the Commission services” (PDF page 79). CBRE say “in our opinion, eliminating the current cap would not necessarily enhance competition or lower prices for consumers” No evidence is offered in support of that opinion.

source: http://wp.me/pNlCf-1sq


Since retailers are paying 50% less in costs when are the prices coming down in the shops?

Calls for the Government to kick- start the property market


Sunday May 08 2011

THE Government should kick- start the property market with new initiatives, according to a Sunday Independent/Quantum Research poll.

More than 76 per cent of respondents believe the Fine Gael/Labour coalition should take decisive action to get movement back into the property market.

In the poll 53 per cent don’t agree with Standard & Poor’s (S&P) that Ireland‘s property market has reached the bottom; though 47 per cent do agree with the assessment by the international credit rating agency.

S&P said it believed property prices “have completed their correction”. It added the caveat that this does not mean the market will pick up again soon. The agency said in the report that house prices in Ireland at the end of 2010 were down 33 per cent from their peak — the largest price contraction in western Europe since the beginning of the crisis.

Ronan O’Driscoll, director of residential property at estate agency Savills, said that in broad terms he agrees with the S&P view that Ireland has pretty much corrected the excess of the housing bubble “depending on the location and type of property in question”.

Savills says there is evidence that prices have “reached the floor” for three and four-bedroom houses in main cities. However, Mr O’Driscoll said it is likely there will be some further drop in prices for trophy homes, apartments and rural housing.

S&P said it will take a couple of years before there are any “tangible signs” of market activity resuming in Ireland.

“We anticipate the British and French housing markets will likely fall back in the coming quarters, while the Spanish and Irish markets confront continued sluggishness,” said the agency.


According to the Sunday Independent telephone poll conducted with a sample of 500 people drawn from all over the country, 76 per cent want the Government to come up with some initiatives that would get movement back into the property market.

“Yes. They should try something, especially for first-time buyers. There is no confidence out there,” said one respondent.

Among the suggested measures put forward by respondents in favour of Government action were tax breaks and debt forgiveness for those who bought at the top of the boom.

Last November, 10 leading economists, including Constantin Gurdgiev, Brian Lucey and Stephen Kinsella, argued the time is now right for some form of debt forgiveness. They argued in an open letter to The Irish Times that the banks “must allow private home borrowers to revert to pre-crisis debt burdens”.

Among the 24 per cent who disagreed, many thought the market will correct itself and that state interference was one of the main reasons we got into so much trouble in the first place.

Rachel Doyle, mortgage manager of the Professional Insurance Brokers Association, said last week the biggest impediment to the property market bottoming out or stabilising is the lack of a functioning banking system.

“Unless the issue is sorted out in the foreseeable future, the housing market and indeed the entire economy will be at further risk,” she said.

Opinion is divided on whether the market has bottomed out. Among the 47 per cent who believe the market has reached the bottom many had the perception that there have been recent signs of stabilisation within the economy; for example no major announcements of job losses and figures which suggest modest growth.

Meanwhile, Royal Bank of Scotland, 83 per cent owned by British taxpayers, posted a pre-tax loss of £116m (€133m) for the first quarter of this year — much of it caused by its Irish loan book.




Asking the Government to meddle again in the property game is just pathetic. Buying and selling property to ourselves is no way to secure a future or to build an economy, all you are doing is trying to reinflate the burst property bubble. The vested interests are working hard to convince us that we now need to start this game all over again. Remember Brian Lelihan “We are turning the corner”  “Our plan in working” Now we know he didn’t have a plan and he was just carrying out orders from the ECB.W e as a people must learn that saddling ourselves with enormous mortgages for a place to live in is just madness .Spending most of our working lives paying off these mortgage at the cost of not been able to go out into the world and wake up to the opportunities that present themselves out there.  Most Germans rent and the government should adopt a more tenant friendly regime, allowing for this transmission .This is what the people need not stoking up a second property bubble so their pals in the property game can again rip off our children this time round .    

Average house price €210,000, says report


AN “ONGOING mismatch” between supply and demand in the housing market pushed asking prices down 3.1 per cent in the first three months of the year, according to the latest report by housing website Daft.ie.

According to Daft’s House Price Report, the average national asking price for property has fallen 43 per cent since the peak of the market and now stands at €210,000.

Another study published today by DKM Economic Consultants on behalf of MyHome.ie places the average national asking price at €260,000. It says prices are down 4.1 per cent on a quarterly basis, with the market enduring a drop of 37 per cent nationally since its peak, and 43 per cent in Dublin.

Both reports agree that it remains a buyer’s market.

The average time it took to sell a property in the first quarter of 2011 was nine months, the same as a year ago, according to Daft. The average time in Dublin was five months, down only slightly year-on-year.

The MyHome.ie Property Barometer said the average time it takes for a property to go sale agreed varied from three months in Dublin to 13 months in Connacht and Ulster.

“An ongoing mismatch between supply and demand is pushing prices further down,” said Ronan Lyons, economist at Daft.

“Prospective buyers find it difficult to get the finance, while owner-occupiers are often restricted by negative equity. As a result, the market is moving very slowly.”

Of the 3,000 properties posted for sale on Daft.ie at the start of 2010, one in three is still for sale 15 months later, Mr Lyons added. In Dublin, however, the figure is closer to one in six.

In an article accompanying the Daft report, Eoin Fahy, chief economist at Kleinwort Benson Investments, said a “first wave” of house price falls had resulted from bubble prices, unemployment and the tighter supply of credit.

A “new set of problems” may now be on the way, he said. “A second wave of factors may keep downward pressure on house prices.

“This will be mainly due to higher interest rates, but there is also an outside risk to house prices from repossessions and even from strategic default.”

In a strategic default, borrowers have such a negative view of the future “that even those that can pay, don’t pay, as they can’t see why they should pay their mortgages each month when so many others will not”, Mr Fahy writes.

While the Daft report finds quarterly price falls both across the State and in each region of Dublin, the MyHome report suggests that prices are rising in the south part of the city centre, with only modest declines in the west and south of the county.

“The moderating pace of price decline in Dublin is to be welcomed, as is the fact that affordability continues to improve,” said the report’s author, DKM director Annette Hughes.

“The median asking price for a 3-bed semi ranges from €149,000 in Longford to €285,000 in Dublin. The national figure is now €179,000, which is equivalent to around five times’ average earnings,” Ms Hughes said.

Further price drops are likely over the course of 2011, she added, partly as a result of impending interest rate hikes.

The European Central Bank has signalled that it will increase rates as early as the meeting of its governing council this Thursday.

MyHome.ie managing director Angela Keegan said the figures indicated 2011 is going to be another challenging year.

“While the stamp duty changes have attracted trader-uppers back into the market, first-time buyers face some difficult choices,” she said. “They will have to weigh up the fact that prices may fall further with changes in mortgage interest relief which it appears now will be introduced at the end of the year.”



Interest rates now said to be heading higher I wouldn’t be buying as I expect to see house prices averaging  around  125,000:00 in Dublin and even that on the merger average industrial wage is to expensive so at  210,000:00 we have a long way to go to get to the bottom .For the current oversupply of Apartment shoeboxes in Dublin I would hope to see the average price come down to a realistic 45-55,000:00 euro and that’s with car parking  otherwise forget it !

Simon Kelly, developer has offered to pay back €100 a month to lender ACC Bank.

By Esther Hayden and Dearbhail McDonald

Thursday February 03 2011

THE son of property tycoon Paddy Kelly has fallen behind on his mortgage payments and cannot repay a €17m debt he owes.

Simon Kelly, developer, columnist and author of the memoir ‘Breakfast with Anglo’, has offered to pay back €100 a month to lender ACC Bank.

But the developer, whose soured property loans of some €200m have been taken over by NAMA, says that it is “very difficult” on his annual income of €80,000 a year to make a meaningful difference to the €17m he owes to ACC.

Mr Kelly claims he has an annual income of €80,000 but is receiving no income from NAMA despite submitting a business plan to the bad bank.

Mr Kelly told Wicklow District Court last week some of his income came from Red Quartz, the family’s property investment vehicle; while some came from a management company he was involved in.

ACC Bank had sought an instalment order against Simon Kelly, of the Old Rectory, Dunganstown, Co Wicklow. Mr Kelly owes them €17,163,913.44 following two High Court judgments — one on May 28, 2009, and another on April 27, 2010.

The court heard “no payments had been received”.

Mr Kelly, who lives with his wife and five children in an old rectory set in five acres, told Wicklow District Court he was getting no income from NAMA.

Because of the commercial sensitivities of his dealings with NAMA, Mr Kelly applied to Judge Murrough Connellan to have the ACC application heard in private, but the judge refused.

NAMA refused to discuss Mr Kelly’s dealings with it, but a spokesperson said it “does not and will not” provide incomes to debtors.

Under cross-examination by ACC barrister Rossa Fanning, Mr Kelly said he had a credit card with Bank of Ireland and had an AIB bank account used for rent collection for five properties he had in Liverpool.

Mr Kelly said the business plan he submitted to NAMA “included an income for me”, but he said he was “in limbo” and had no idea if it would be approved.

He said he had outgoings of €120,000 per year. The court heard Mr Kelly has five children and he pays school fees of €27,000 per year.

Mr Fanning queried why Mr Kelly was not making any “provisions for payments of debts” and Mr Kelly said the €17m loan was “not my only debt”.

He said he was in arrears with his home loan.

Following a break to examine Mr Kelly’s statement of means, Judge Connellan made no order due to “lack of funds”.

– Esther Hayden and Dearbhail McDonald

Irish Independent

source; www.Inedpendent.ie

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