by Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev
Residential Property Price Index for February is out today and, surprise, the property price deflation is accelerating.
- All properties headline index now stands at 66.1 down from 67.6 in January 2012 and 80.4 in February 2011. So mom contraction of 2.22% in February 2012 makes this the fastest rate of monthly decline since March 2009 and the third fastest rate of monthly decline in history. Relative to peak, residential property price index is now down 49.35%. 12mo MA of monthly declines is at 1.62% and January-February average is at 2.05%. Year on year index is down 17.79%. Which is what it says on the tin – third month of accelerating declines in prices in a row.
- House prices sub-index is now at 69.0 against January 2012 reading of 70.4 and February 2011 reading of 83.5. Monthly rate of decline in February was 1.99% – steeper than anything recorded since October 2011, marking third consecutive month of accelerating monthly drops. Year on year, the index is down 17.37%. Compared to peak valuations, house prices index is now 47.73% down.
full article at source:http://trueeconomics.blogspot.de/
We are still a long way from the bottom I had a quick look at the Daft website and I am still shocked at the asking prices of what can only be described as shoe boxes in Dublin. In and around Lubeck you can pick up a one bedroom apartment for about 45,000 euro .Yep we have a long way to go yet!
This morning has seen the publication of the seventh CSO residential property price indices for Ireland. The inaugural series was published by the CSO on 13th May 2011 and covered the period from January 2005 to March 2011. This morning’s release covers the month of September 2011. Here’s the summary showing the index at its peak, November 2009 (the NAMA valuation date), September 2010 (12 months ago), December 2010 (end of year, start of this year) and September 2011
full article at source:http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2011/10/25/cso-residential-property-indices-for-september-2011-published-%e2%80%93-declines-continue-across-board-with-a-4-8-monthly-decline-in-dublin-apartments/
CSO residential property price indices prices are still falling across the board and this report indicates you would be a complete idiot to go out and buy at the present time .Baring in mind that another 3 austerity budgets are on the way I would expect to see Dublin apartments come down to my price target range of 55,000 for a one bed roomed shoe box before long and if you are lucky you might be able to tie the horse under the Gaff in the onetime car park now been used to store bails of hay. With the cost of running a car still heading up I expect to see lots more Merks on done deal at knockdown prices!
Full PDF report here :Residential property price Index
The Central Statistics Office today launched a new national Residential Property Price Index, pdf, which provides data from the beginning of 2005 to March 2011. The series is based on transactions which are funded by residential mortgages and covers both houses and apartments. The first index report shows that Irish residential property prices fell 11.9% in the year to March 2011.
The CSO says that on a monthly basis the overall national index grew by close to or above 1% in almost every month between the period June 2005 and March 2007. Between April 2007 and November 2007 there was little movement in the index and it was in this period that prices were at their highest, approximately 30% higher than in January 2005. In December 2007 a consistent downward movement in prices began with the rate of decline accelerating in 2009 and into early 2010. The monthly rate of decline increased to 1.7% in both February and March of this year; the largest monthly decreases since July 2009.
House prices in Dublin are now some 45% lower than at their highest level in early 2007. Apartments in Dublin are 52% lower than they were in February 2007. The fall in the price of residential properties in the Rest of Ireland is somewhat lower at just over 35%. Overall, the national index is almost 40% lower than its highest level in 2007.
The results show that
- At a national level residential property prices in the year to March 2011 fell by 11.9%. Prices in Dublin fell by 13% in the year while outside of Dublin prices fell by 11%;
- Residential Property Prices, at a national level, reached their highest level in mid 2007 and in Dublin somewhat earlier, at the beginning of the second quarter of 2007;
- Since reaching their highest level, Residential Property Prices have fallen by almost 40% nationally, with Dublin experiencing the largest decline (-47%), while in the rest of Ireland prices fell at a somewhat lower rate (-35%).
- The largest price decline was for Dublin apartments where prices have fallen by 52% since February 2007.
- At a national level, houses have fallen by 11.5% in the year to March and by 38% since they reached their highest level in 2007. Nationally, apartments fell by 15.2% in the twelve months to March and by 51% since February 2007.
The CSO says the new index meets a national need for an official measure of the change in residential property prices and will also fulfill a new EU data requirement which obliges all Member States to produce comparable national residential property price indices on a quarterly basis from 2012. The new national index will be published on a monthly basis approximately six weeks after the end of each reference period. The next release, for April 2011, will be published in early June.
- The permanent tsb/ESRI House Price Indexis no longer being produced.”This report is not before it’s time and will go a long way in eliminating a black hole in one important area of the property market; house prices,” said Frank Conway, a director with Irish Mortgage Corporation.First time buyers are the single biggest segment of the property market currently, making up 41% in the 4th quarter 2010 (Source: IBF/PwC Mortgage Market Profile).
“The first time buyer market is beset by uncertainty. Property prices, job stability and access to funding make up a troika that continue to dampen appetite and peoples ability to purchase. However, the launch of the property price report from the CRO will provide certaintly in respect of property prices. Access to funding and job certainty also need to be addressed before confidence can return,” said Conway.
On the contents of the report, Conway said this report highlights property prices are still falling. However, the aggregate falls of 40% nationally is broadly in line with similar price drop estimates issued previously and contradicts smaller price drop estimates issues by a major ratings agency in recent weeks.
- source: http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1022295.shtml
I remember the last time government said that it was now time to buy a property.As for the banks, well they appear to be hounding some people to the grave now! Don’t fall for the vested interests with 300,000 houses empty and 60,000 leaving the country every year, no jobs new property taxes, water charges and if you are stupid enough to have put something into a pension you are now been robbed again from the very people who promised to make the bondholders pay at the last election .My advice stay away from property as I expect it will have to fall at least another 35 to 45% .Just compare our prices to those of Europe!