I have a note on core inflation which might be of interest to your readers.
Imagine that the measure of inflation used by the Federal Reserve excludes ENERGY and FOOD because they are TOO Volatile. We truly live in a FIXED world.
“Core inflation is a measure of inflation which excludes certain items that face volatile price movements, notably food and energy.
Since February 2000, the Federal Reserve Board’s semiannual monetary policy reports to Congress have described the Board’s outlook for inflation in terms of the PCE. Prior to that, the inflation outlook was presented in terms of the CPI. In explaining its preference for the PCE, the Board stated: The chain-type price index for PCE draws extensively on data from the consumer price index but, while not entirely free of measurement problems, has several advantages relative to the CPI. The PCE chain-type index is constructed from a formula that reflects the changing composition of spending and thereby avoids some of the upward bias associated with the fixed-weight nature of the CPI. In addition, the weights are based on a more comprehensive measure of expenditures. Finally, historical data used in the PCE price index can be revised to account for newly available information and for improvements in measurement techniques, including those that affect source data from the CPI; the result is a more consistent series over time. —Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Feb. 17, 2000
Previously the Federal Reserve had used the US Consumer Price Index as its preferred measure of inflation. The CPI is still used for many purposes, for example, for indexing social security. The equivalent of the CPI is also commonly used by central banks of other countries when measuring inflation. The CPI is presented monthly in the US by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This index tends to change more on a month to month basis than does “core inflation”. This is because core inflation eliminates products that can have temporary price shocks (i.e. energy, food products). Core inflation is thus intended to be an indicator and predictor of underlying long-term inflation.”
- Two Measures of Inflation With a Footnote on Gasoline (seekingalpha.com)
- Why The Federal Reserve Isn’t Worried About Inflation Yet (businessinsider.com)
- Consumer Price Index vs. “Core” Inflation (cashmoneylife.com)
- Does Core Inflation Predict Overall Inflation? (economix.blogs.nytimes.com)
- St. Louis Fed’s Bullard Discusses Economic Outlook and Recent Monetary Policy Developments (prnewswire.com)
- EUR/USD – Trading the U.S. CPI Release (seekingalpha.com)