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Posts tagged ‘namawinelake’

Namawinelake closure

by

I do not know the reasons behind the Namawinelake decision to stop operations, but the announcement that the blog will cease publishing new material starting from tomorrow was a shocker for me.
I can attest from my own & others’ experiences that those of us who run anything independent of the officialdom mouthpieces (regardless of political / ideological orientation or even the lack of one) have near-zero support (moral or citations- and links-wise) from our internal (not to be confused with international) media and all businesses.
Those in our society, including the traditional media, who only benefit from the free analysis and the climate of openness and debate the independent analysts help to create prefer to endlessly endorse and support, including via advertising revenues, cross-links, citations and readership, those who offer no alternative but…….

full article at source:http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/

NAMA does secret deal with DDDA

We haven’t heard a great deal of late about the fate of the 25-acre Irish Glass Bottle site in Ringsend, Dublin which is curious, as it is one of the most expensive assets under NAMA’s control by reference to its value in 2006 when it was bought for €412m by a consortium which essentially comprised Bernard McNamara, Derek Quinlan and the state-owned Dublin Docklands Development Authority (DDDA). It is estimated that the site today is worth €50m; there are three feature blogposts on the history and current status of the site on here – here and here and here.

full article at source:http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2011/11/26/nama-does-secret-deal-with-ddda-to-erase-liability-for-idiotic-property-development-decisions/

CSO residential property price indices for Sept 2011

By Namawinelake

This morning has seen the publication of the seventh CSO residential property price indices for Ireland. The inaugural series was published by the CSO on 13th May 2011 and covered the period from January 2005 to March 2011. This morning’s release covers the month of September 2011. Here’s the summary showing the index at its peak, November 2009 (the NAMA valuation date), September 2010 (12 months ago), December 2010 (end of year, start of this year) and September 2011
full article at source:http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2011/10/25/cso-residential-property-indices-for-september-2011-published-%e2%80%93-declines-continue-across-board-with-a-4-8-monthly-decline-in-dublin-apartments/

Derek Quinlan’s art collection to be sold by NAMA

By Namawinelake

In terms of transparency in engaging suppliers of services, NAMA seems to be burrowing itself deeper and deeper down Alice in Wonderland’s rabbit hole. Whilst the agency started out by advertising all contracts for services and there was, by all accounts a rigorous procurement process to appoint an army of professionals, it seems these days that the agency is satisfied with a brief beauty contest before making appointments. Rumour has it that agents HT Meagher O’Reilly has been appointed by NAMA to let all the commercial property under its control in the south Docklands in Dublin.

full artical here at source:http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2011/08/18/nama-appoints-company-to-sell-derek-quinlan%e2%80%99s-art-collection-a-company-which-the-european-commission-found-had-operated-a-cartel-which-defrauded-art-sellers-out-of-290m/

New Central Bank of Ireland figures show no slow-down in deposit flight

April 29, 2011

 by namawinelake

Figures released by the Central Bank of Ireland (CBI) this morning for the month of March 2011 show that the flight of deposits from Irish banks shows no sign of slowing down. From an Irish perspective, possibly the most significant figure to watch is the total of private sector deposits in the six State-guaranteed financial institutions (AIB, Anglo, Bank of Ireland, EBS, Irish Life and Permanent and INBS). The total which represents businesses and households fell to €106.3bn in March 2011 from €108.6bn in February 2011 and is now down €23bn from a year ago, €11bn since the IMF/EU bailout in November 2010 and €2.3bn down over the course of just one month. The CBI and ECB continue to provide substitute funding for Irish banks which replaces this flight of deposits and Irish banks continue to provide extensive State-backed guarantees on deposits. It remains to be seen if the pace of decline in deposits slowed after the bank restructuring announcements made after close of business on 31st March, 2011 – Minister Noonan indicated the early signs were encouraging but since then our sovereign bond yields have sky-rocketed again.

So, looking at the deposit figures produced by the CBI. First up is the consolidated picture for all banks operating in Ireland including those based in the IFSC which do not service the domestic economy.

Next up are the 20 banks which do service the domestic economy and include local subsidiaries of foreign banks like Danske, KBC and Rabobank. There is a list of all banks operating in Ireland here together with a note of the 20 that service the domestic economy.

And lastly the six State-guaranteed financial institutions (AIB, Anglo, Bank of Ireland, EBS, Irish Life and Permanent and INBS)

(1) Monetary Financial Institutions (MFIs) refers to credit institutions, as defined in Community Law, money market funds, and other resident financial institutions whose business is to receive deposits and/or close substitutes for deposits from entities other than MFIs, and, for their own account (at least in economic terms), to grant credits and/or to make investments in securities. Since January 2009, credit institutions include Credit Unions as regulated by the Registrar of Credit Unions. Under ESA 95, the Eurosystem (including the Central Bank ofIreland) and other non-euro area national central banks are included in the MFI institutional sector. In the tables presented here, however, central banks are not included in the loans and deposits series with respect to MFI counterparties.

(2) NR Euro are Non-Resident European depositors

(3) NR Row are Non-Resident Rest of World depositors (ie outsideEurope)

source:http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2011/04/29/new-central-bank-of-ireland-figures-show-no-slow-down-in-deposit-flight/

comment:

Just a few weeks ago Mr. Noonan reassured the public that “The total amount of deposits withdrawn from the pillar banks has been very significantly reduced”. And “the net deposit position of the Pillar Banks has improved significantly” So what’s new he was lying and I expect he will continue to lie to us over the next few years. This is what you get when you try to build so called Pillar Bank on the rotten foundations of corrupt and toxic banks in the first place!

Shut these toxic black holes down now!

Just what is stopping this palsied government?

By namawinelake 

“There is not one moment to be lost”
Labour Party Programme for Government, introduction
Okay, it was only 25th February, 2011 when we cast our votes in the general election and it was only 6th March, 2011 when Labour and Fine Gael (FG), who together had been tipped for months as the likely new coalition government, hammered out a deal for forming the new administration and it was only 9th March, 2011 when new Taoiseach, Enda Kenny formally picked up his medal/seal from the President confirming his appointment. But what we had a month ago was not a snap election, an election was firmly in the offing ever since the Greens (remember them?) announced with babes in arms on 22nd November, 2010, that they would be withdrawing from government imminently when certain bailout-related commitments were put in place. And even prior to that there had been a number of incidents last year – Willie O’Dea’s tribulations, Garglegate, the bombshell on 30th March when Minister Lenihan estimated Anglo’s bailout at €25bn, the controversial stag-hunting bill – which should have naturally put Opposition parties on an -election footing. The point is, that the new administration should have hit the ground running with policies and initiatives that had been developed over the previous months, if not indeed, years. This entry examines progress to date.
You might ask if it is too early to demand to see progress with a new government. After all they have just gotten their feet under the desks, why should we expect any real progress at this point? In response, not only should this administration have hit the ground running but it seems to be accepted as a truism that the first 100 days in a new government is when you start putting in place the reforms and developments which you intend seeing implemented. Okay, theoretically, the FG/Labour coalition will be in power for 1,800 days but most of this will be spent in the detailed implementation of policy and then ramping up for a re-election.
Looking at the Programme for Government, the document which sets out the jointly-agreed policy positions of Labour and FG, it is striking that practically no progress has been made. Take one example, the restoration of the minimum wage to €8.65 per hour – remember it was cut in January 2011 to €7.65 per hour in line with a commitment given in the IMF/EU bailout agreement, and it was to apply to new hires only. Given that both Labour and FG pledged the reversal of the cut in their individual manifestoes, the pledge then making it unaltered in the joint Programme for Government and given Labour and FG have 113 deputies in the 166-deputy Dail, not to mention the same commitment from others, Sinn Fein and United Left Alliance for example which comprises a further 19 deputies, then why has the new government failed to restore the minimum wage? Surely this is entirely within their control and doesn’t involve State expenditure. Curious.
Looking at the Finance commitments which of primary interest on here the Programme for Government, progress here is representative of progress across all the departmental portfolios, that is, there doesn’t appear to have been any.
(1) Renegotiate IMF/EU bailout – on hold, initial overtures rebuked apparently because the Taoiseach would not offer something in return, specifically in the area of corporate tax
(2) Structural reforms – none announced
(3) Replacing emergency ECB funding with medium term funding – there are rumours of a €60bn medium term fund custom-made for Ireland. Irish banks are in receipt of €180bn+ of short term funding at present from the ECB and Central Bank of Ireland. Will confidence be restored amongst investors if only one third of current short-term funding is converted into medium term funding?
(4) Ending further transfers to NAMA – On 7th March, 2011 AIB announced the transfer of €1.1bn of loans to NAMA. There has been no further public word on NAMA’s intentions with Paddy McKillen’s loans or with the sub-€20m exposures at AIB and Bank of Ireland.
(5) Increasing credit availability – nothing announced
(6) Introduction of special resolution regime for bank insolvencies – this was commenced by the previous administration on 28th February, 2011 with the publication of the CENTRAL BANK AND CREDIT INSTITUTIONS (RESOLUTION) BILL 2011 but as far as I can tell it has not been debated in the new Dail or progressed in any way.
(7) Disposal of public stakes in banks – nothing announced
(8) Creation of “integrated decision making process” to improve government responses to the financial crisis – well there is now a grouping of four – Taoiseach Enda Kenny, Tanaiste Eamon Gilmore, Minister for Finance Michael Noonan and Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform, Brendan Howlin – but it is not clear how it is working and whether or not it has yet accomplished anything
(9) Restructuring banks boards and creating pools of suitable candidates – nothing announced
(10) Highest standards of transparency in the operation in NAMA – nothing announced. The NAMA quarter four, 2010 (year end) report is apparently already on Minister Noonan’s desk, a week before the due date of 31st March, 2011. How long will it take him to publish it?
(11) Establishment of a strategic bank – nothing announced
(12) Establishment of credit union commission – nothing announced
(13) Establishment of financial services taskforce to maximise employment and opportunities – nothing announced
(14) Investigation of banking failures – nothing announced
Michael Noonan has reportedly spent much time talking – talking domestically with the NTMA, Central Bank and his new staff at the Department of Finance and, I would expect, NAMA; talking internationally with the IMF, ECB, EU and Federal Reserve. Of course what is overshadowing the many micro-decisions that must be made, is the ongoing stress test, but I understand that the results have been known in general terms for a couple of weeks and there is now even reporting which claims the tests will show an additional capital requirement in the €20bn-zone, more than the €10bn that was to have been injected in February 2011 but less than the €35bn allowed for in the bailout. So why should the stress tests be holding up progress elsewhere?
Of course it is still unknown how “the market” will react to the stress tests when the results are published this Thursday but the betting is that regardless of the level of detail disclosed, there will still be some scepticism about future losses (and not just in Anglo and Irish Nationwide Building Society, neither of which is even being subjected to a stress test). And the big decisions facing Minister Noonan will closely involve the EU/ECB and to an extent, the IMF. But Minister Noonan must now at least know the broad parameters of the problem, and anyway why is that stopping progress elsewhere in his department.
So, as far as I can see, there is little outward sign of much life in the Department of Finance. New initiatives to deliver the commitments in the Programme for Government are also apparently absent from other ministries. Perhaps more than one month is needed to start the ball rolling but the urgency suggested by Labour’s spirited statement “there is not one moment to be lost” does seem to be at odds with the apparent lack of progress across all ministries including Finance.

source URL: http://wp.me/pNlCf-1cz

 

Comment:

Everybody I know that is in the markets is not taking a blind bit of notice of the 3rd stress tests

They believe that we will not get the real picture as we are now really playing a European game dictated by the German banks and the new Irish government is still going to stay the previous Fianna fail course .They have said as much by telling the Irish public that there will be no change for the next two years !

When the public finally realize this they will come out on to the streets but then it will be too late as we will have lost all our own funds in the National Pension Fund.

more New Year predictions!

It’s still January so perhaps we’re still in time for some more New Year predictions. There was a detailed entry on here a fortnight ago on residential property predictions for 2011 and indeed the summary prediction on here for Irish commercial property was that capital values would decline by a further 10% in 2011 bringing the cumulative fall from peak in 2007 to 64%. This entry examines the prospects for commercial property in some more detail by reference to property powerhouse and NAMA valuation panel member, CB Richard Ellis, who has this week produced its annual property outlook report.. Its outlook report for 2011 paints a mildly optimistic picture though it is far from Pollyanna-ish. The report covers Ireland, both North and the Republic and in lesser detail there is an outlook for the UK.The highlights:
(a) The distinction in performance between prime and non-prime locations/assets and Dublin/provincial locations will become more marked.
(b) Rents are predicted to fall in all sectors, the indication is that there will be modest capital increases for prime markets
(c) There will be more transactions as NAMA, banks, receivers and liquidators bring product to market amidst a stabilisation in returns
(d) Whilst credit will still be constrained, there is funding available for certain projects though foreign capital will feature prominently
(e) Whilst there is little new commercial space coming available, restructuring, retrenchment and business failure will mean the overall stock is unlikely to reduce to any significant degree
Omitted from the report is the potential for increased competition from the North which has dramatically lower property costs (CBRE quote prime office rents in the North at GBP 135 psm or €15 psf compared with ~€30 psf in Dublin) though there are signs of severe rent adjustment on this side of the border. The Irish Times yesterday reports on a significant new rental on Temple Bar’s Fleet Street in central Dublin. The 11,000 sq ft store, which will trade as a Tesco Express, is paying a reported €200,000 a year in rent, equivalent to €18 psf – this rent level represent the future in my opinion.
In February 2011 the UK will begin in earnest its attempt to lower the corporation tax rate for Northern Ireland. I would have said that the UK wouldn’t surmount the so-called Azores principle whereby the EU would block regional tax variations unless the region was fiscally balanced. Which Northern Ireland isn’t. But this doesn’t seem to be stopping Chancellor George Osborne and of course he will find willing supporters in the North and we may find fewer supporters in Europe. CBRE prominently cite the importance of the State’s 12.5% as a contributing factor in bolstering demand for commercial property.
Personally I think we may have another economic convulsion or two before we get out of the woods (deposit flight, another European crisis, further bank loan or derivative losses – take your pick). The hit-or-miss ESRI has this morning lowered its prediction/projection for GDP growth in 2011 to 1.5% (less than the Government’s 1.75%). Like the property market, the Irish economy currently has its own prime/non-prime sectors and whilst the export market is expected to thrive, domestic demand is expected to contract or at most, modestly grow.
We don’t get precise predictions from CBRE but the prediction here is that commercial property capital values in the State will drop 10% by reference to the JLL index (which is down some 60% already from peak). There may well be sectoral variances though I think that even prime property in Dublin will come down. Rents have been dropping by some 20%+ annualised during all of last year and I expect further drops in 2011 of 15-20%, again by reference to JLL’s series. Investment property transaction volumes and values will be up on the 29 worth €241m in 2010 – I wouldn’t be surprised by a doubling-plus in volumes and values.

source URL: http://wp.me/pNlCf-Xg

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