This morning has seen the publication of the seventh CSO residential property price indices for Ireland. The inaugural series was published by the CSO on 13th May 2011 and covered the period from January 2005 to March 2011. This morning’s release covers the month of September 2011. Here’s the summary showing the index at its peak, November 2009 (the NAMA valuation date), September 2010 (12 months ago), December 2010 (end of year, start of this year) and September 2011
full article at source:http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2011/10/25/cso-residential-property-indices-for-september-2011-published-%e2%80%93-declines-continue-across-board-with-a-4-8-monthly-decline-in-dublin-apartments/
In terms of transparency in engaging suppliers of services, NAMA seems to be burrowing itself deeper and deeper down Alice in Wonderland’s rabbit hole. Whilst the agency started out by advertising all contracts for services and there was, by all accounts a rigorous procurement process to appoint an army of professionals, it seems these days that the agency is satisfied with a brief beauty contest before making appointments. Rumour has it that agents HT Meagher O’Reilly has been appointed by NAMA to let all the commercial property under its control in the south Docklands in Dublin.
full artical here at source:http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2011/08/18/nama-appoints-company-to-sell-derek-quinlan%e2%80%99s-art-collection-a-company-which-the-european-commission-found-had-operated-a-cartel-which-defrauded-art-sellers-out-of-290m/
It’s still January so perhaps we’re still in time for some more New Year predictions. There was a detailed entry on here a fortnight ago on residential property predictions for 2011 and indeed the summary prediction on here for Irish commercial property was that capital values would decline by a further 10% in 2011 bringing the cumulative fall from peak in 2007 to 64%. This entry examines the prospects for commercial property in some more detail by reference to property powerhouse and NAMA valuation panel member, CB Richard Ellis, who has this week produced its annual property outlook report.. Its outlook report for 2011 paints a mildly optimistic picture though it is far from Pollyanna-ish. The report covers Ireland, both North and the Republic and in lesser detail there is an outlook for the UK.The highlights:
(a) The distinction in performance between prime and non-prime locations/assets and Dublin/provincial locations will become more marked.
(b) Rents are predicted to fall in all sectors, the indication is that there will be modest capital increases for prime markets
(c) There will be more transactions as NAMA, banks, receivers and liquidators bring product to market amidst a stabilisation in returns
(d) Whilst credit will still be constrained, there is funding available for certain projects though foreign capital will feature prominently
(e) Whilst there is little new commercial space coming available, restructuring, retrenchment and business failure will mean the overall stock is unlikely to reduce to any significant degree
Omitted from the report is the potential for increased competition from the North which has dramatically lower property costs (CBRE quote prime office rents in the North at GBP 135 psm or €15 psf compared with ~€30 psf in Dublin) though there are signs of severe rent adjustment on this side of the border. The Irish Times yesterday reports on a significant new rental on Temple Bar’s Fleet Street in central Dublin. The 11,000 sq ft store, which will trade as a Tesco Express, is paying a reported €200,000 a year in rent, equivalent to €18 psf – this rent level represent the future in my opinion.
In February 2011 the UK will begin in earnest its attempt to lower the corporation tax rate for Northern Ireland. I would have said that the UK wouldn’t surmount the so-called Azores principle whereby the EU would block regional tax variations unless the region was fiscally balanced. Which Northern Ireland isn’t. But this doesn’t seem to be stopping Chancellor George Osborne and of course he will find willing supporters in the North and we may find fewer supporters in Europe. CBRE prominently cite the importance of the State’s 12.5% as a contributing factor in bolstering demand for commercial property.
Personally I think we may have another economic convulsion or two before we get out of the woods (deposit flight, another European crisis, further bank loan or derivative losses – take your pick). The hit-or-miss ESRI has this morning lowered its prediction/projection for GDP growth in 2011 to 1.5% (less than the Government’s 1.75%). Like the property market, the Irish economy currently has its own prime/non-prime sectors and whilst the export market is expected to thrive, domestic demand is expected to contract or at most, modestly grow.
We don’t get precise predictions from CBRE but the prediction here is that commercial property capital values in the State will drop 10% by reference to the JLL index (which is down some 60% already from peak). There may well be sectoral variances though I think that even prime property in Dublin will come down. Rents have been dropping by some 20%+ annualised during all of last year and I expect further drops in 2011 of 15-20%, again by reference to JLL’s series. Investment property transaction volumes and values will be up on the 29 worth €241m in 2010 – I wouldn’t be surprised by a doubling-plus in volumes and values.
source URL: http://wp.me/pNlCf-Xg