by Tyler Durden
Moments ago the market jeered the announcement of DB’s 10% equity dilution, promptly followed by cheering its early earnings announcement which was a “beat” on the topline, despite some weakness in sales and trading and an increase in bad debt provisions (which at €354MM on total loans of €399.9 BN net of a tiny €4.863 BN in loan loss allowance will have to go higher. Much higher). Ironically both events are complete noise in the grand scheme of things. Because something far more interesting can be found on page 87 of the company’s 2012 financial report.
The thing in question is the company’s self-reported total gross notional derivative exposure.
And while the vast majority of readers may be left with the impression that JPMorgan’s mindboggling $69.5 trillion in gross notional derivative exposure as of Q4 2012 may be the largest in the world, they would be surprised to learn that that is not the case. In fact, the bank with the single largest derivative exposure is not located in the US at all, but in the heart of Europe, and its name, as some may have guessed by now, is Deutsche Bank.
The amount in question? €55,605,039,000,000. Which, converted into USD at the current EURUSD exchange rate amounts to $72,842,601,090,000…. Or roughly $2 trillion more than JPMorgan’s.
full article at source:http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-29/728-trillion-presenting-bank-biggest-derivative-exposure-world-hint-not-jpmorgan
Derivatives Reform on the Ropes …
New rules to regulate derivatives, adopted last week by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, are a victory for Wall Street and a setback for financial reform. They may also signal worse things to come … The regulations, required under the Dodd-Frank reform law, are intended to impose transparency and competition on the notoriously opaque multitrillion-dollar market for derivatives, which is dominated by five banks: JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley. – New York Times
Dominant Social Theme: We have this billion trillion market under control. Don’t worry.
Free-Market Analysis: Derivatives reform? We hardly think so …
First of all, nobody knows how big the derivatives market is and no one knows how many dollars are at risk. Those involved in making the regulations are also the largest players in the market. Whatever “reform” is being worked out will benefit those who are part of the industry.
Here’s how Wikipedia describes a derivative:
A derivative is a financial instrument which derives its value from the value of underlying entities such as an asset, index, or interest rate–it has no intrinsic value in itself. Derivative transactions include a variety of financial contracts, including structured debt obligations and deposits, swaps, futures, options, caps, floors, collars, forwards, and various combinations of these…………………………..
full article at source: http://www.thedailybell.com/30657/Billion-Trillion-Derivatives-Market–Reform-or-a-Blowup
A few years ago, when J.P. Morgan grew their derivatives book by 12 Trillion in one quarter[Q3/07] – I did some back of the napkin math – and figured out how many 5 and 10 year bonds the Morgue would have necessarily had to transact on their swaps alone – if they are hedged. The bonds required to hedge the growth in Morgan’s Swap book were 1.4 billion more in one day than what was mathematically available to the entire domestic bond market for a whole quarter?
Put simply, interest rate swaps create more settlement demand for bonds than the U.S. issues.
This is why U.S. bonds “appear” to be “scarce” – which the bought-and-paid-for mainstream financial press explains to us is “a flight to quality”. Better stated, it’s a “FORCED FLIGHT [or sleight, perhaps?] TO FRAUD”.
Assertions that netting “explains” this incongruity are a NON-STARTER. Netting generally occurs at day’s end – the math simply does not even work intra-day.
Further Evidence of Gross Malfeasance in the U.S. Bond Market
Back in 2008, at the height of the financial crisis, folks are reminded how the Fed and U.S. Treasury were unsuccessful in finding a financial institution to either acquire or merge with Morgan Stanley. Unfortunately, Morgan Stanley’s financial condition has continued to deteriorate:
Analysis: How Morgan Stanley sank to junk pricing
REUTERS | June 1, 2012 at 5:45 pm |
(Reuters) – The bond markets are treating Morgan Stanley like a junk-rated company, and the investment bank’s higher borrowing costs could already be putting it at a disadvantage even before an expected ratings downgrade this month.
Bond rating agency Moody’s Investors Service has said it may cut Morgan Stanley by at least two notches in June, to just two or three steps above junk status. Many investors see such a cut as all but certain
full article at source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article35164.html
By Laura Clarke and Katie Martin
The prospect of Greece leaving the euro is the only thing anyone is talking about in the markets at the moment. It even has its own nickname: Grexit.
While the world holds its breath for the next Greek elections or major policy announcement, speculation of an exit runs rife.
It is important to emphasize that nothing is certain here; Greece may or may not leave, and there’s a huge range of potential policy responses. So, making allowances for some guesswork, from U.S. political upheaval to a knock-on effect for Mexican bonds, here’s a rundown of the latest on some economists’ and analysts’ views on what could happen next.MORGAN STANLEY: The bank echoes calls for a sufficient firewall to prevent a spillover into other peripheral markets in the event of a Greek exit, also saying the structure of this firewall will determine the medium-term direction of the euro. “The firewall is unlikely to receive much in the way of additional fiscal support, as local budgets of most European Monetary Union members are stretched, suggesting the European Central Bank will play a vital role in strengthening the firewall. However, the more the ECB gets involved in helping to create a sufficient firewall, the weaker the euro. A Greek exit will also create bearish economic second-round effects, which will be felt by core countries via weakening export dynamics too,” Morgan Stanley analysts say.
full article at source: http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120525-708442.html
by Golem XIV
A horrid thought has been incubating for the last few days.
I don’t know how many of you know much about Vulture Funds, what they do and how they do it, but it forms the basis of my horrid thought.
Nations issue debt. After it is bought, it often gets re-sold on what is called the secondary market. The price of debt on the secondary market changes much as stock prices change. The market is big.
When a nation looks like it might default the price of its debt begins to sink. What was bought for full price is offered for sale at a reduced price – say 60 cents on the dollar. Buyers and sellers have to decide if they think the nation will proceed to default or avoid it. The decision is, sell now and accept a loss but avoid a potentially larger loss later, or buy now at a discount and if the nation avoids default, profit as the value of that cheaply bought debt recovers its original value.
But then there are the vulture funds. They follow a quite different path. They are creatures of the law not of finance and there are not many. One of the biggest, most notorious and best connected is Elliot Associates of Manhattan. They have very close links with the Republican Party and to Mitt Romney in particular ( They are large donors to his campaign). Another is FG Capital management. These companies are financial companies all founded and largely owned by Wall Street lawyers. FG Capital Management was founded by a former Morgan Stanley consultant.
Vulture funds buy the bonds others have given up on. They buy what is often referred to as ‘distressed debt’. That is debt that has been defaulted upon and is, for the ordinary bond manager, worthless. The vulture buys it and then sues the defaulting nation. It is a very specialized area of the law and of finance. As an IMF study from 2003 said of vulture funds,
“Investors in this market posses specialized knowledge of bankruptcy law and international litigation and are willing to hold out for many years before seeing any recovery”
full article at source: http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/author/golem-xiv/
DB Briefs: Banking Elites Stole $1.2 Trillion Thanks to the FED / Is Ben Bernanke Insane? / Biden Tells China “You Are Safe”
Tuesday, August 23, 2011 – by Staff Report
Wall Street Aristocracy Got $1.2 Trillion from the FED
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke‘s unprecedented effort to keep the economy from plunging into depression included lending banks and other companies as much as $1.2 trillion of public money, about the same amount U.S. homeowners currently owe on 6.5 million delinquent and foreclosed mortgages. … according to a Bloomberg News compilation of data obtained through Freedom of Information Act requests, months of litigation and an act of Congress. “These are all whopping numbers,” said Robert Litan, a former Justice Department official who in the 1990s served on a commission probing the causes of the savings and loan crisis. “You’re talking about the aristocracy of American finance going down the tubes without the federal money.” – Bloomberg
full story at source:http://www.thedailybell.com/2835/DB-Briefs-Banking-Elites-Stole-12-Trillion-Thanks-to-the-FED-Is-Ben-Bernanke-Insane-Biden-Tells-China-You-Are-Safe
Image via Wikipedia
By David Mc Williams
David has a new posting and it is well worth a read!
Did you know that AIB defaulted on Monday? It did, and the people who internationally govern this type of thing announced yesterday that AIB is technically in default. AIB decided — rightly — not to pay some of its many billions of bonds. It began the process of burning the bondholders. Now, were we not told that if the banks defaulted then the sky would fall in? Wasn’t that the establishment line?
It’s not me who says AIB has defaulted, it is the following list of banks: Bank of America/Merrill Lynch; Barclays, Credit Suisse; Deutsche Bank; AG Goldman Sachs; JPMorgan Chase Bank; NA Morgan Stanley; UBS; BNP Paribas; Societe Generale; Citadel Investment Group LLC; DE Shaw Group; BlackRock; BlueMountain Capital and Rabobank International.
All these international investment banks that make up an august body called the International Swaps and Derivatives Association deemed officially that AIB has defaulted.
Now I don’t really care what happens to these bankers, but I do remember that they had said that if AIB or any of the Irish banks defaulted on anything, the world would cave in. So has it? Weren’t you told that by now the ATMs would not have any money in them?
Yesterday morning, I approached an ATM in Dalkey at the local AIB expecting to see lines and lines of frantic depositor’s queuing up to get their money out.
I was terrified as I put in my card because these usual suspects who come on telly and sound as if they know something warned that at the first hint of a default there would be no money in the hole in the wall. Now granted, these were the same lads who said we’d have a soft landing and who reassured us that the banks were “well capitalised”.
read full article at source : http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2011/06/22/ecb-is-happy-to-let-irish-banks-go-bust-by-stealth