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Posts tagged ‘Irish Life & Permanent AGM’

Markets are right to be worried

Markets are right to be worried — ‘final’ €50bn to fix banks looks like tip of iceberg

Sunday October 10 2010

THE soaring cost of bailing out the banks means that Ireland is now locked out of the bond markets.

Lenders are terrified that they might not get their money back. And they are right to be worried because the real cost of fixing our broken banking system is almost certain to far exceed even the €50bn figure that has so terrified Irish taxpayers and the international financial markets.

Last week, Finance Minister Brian Lenihan announced that the cost of fixing Ireland’s broken banking system had risen once again. He put the “final” cost of sorting out the Anglo mess at between €29bn and €34bn, up from the €25bn figure that had been previously indicated by official sources.

Just for good measure Mr Lenihan also announced that AIB would require an extra €3bn of new capital while the Irish Nationwide needs an extra €2.4bn.

When the estimated cost of bailing out each institution is totted up, the total comes to just more than €50bn.

That is a truly terrifying figure, the equivalent of about 40pc of the value of this year’s economic output as measured by GNP.

The reaction to Mr Lenihan’s announcement was immediate and severe. The government was forced to cancel the last three monthly bond auctions of 2010 as international investors insisted that the government devise a credible fiscal strategy; while the political system went into a deep shock from which the only escape route is likely to be an early general election.

Unfortunately, things aren’t as bad as Mr Lenihan told us last week.

They are almost certainly much worse.

First things first. Even the €34bn cost of bailing out Anglo, which the government insists is a “worst-case scenario”, will almost certainly be exceeded. That is the view of ratings agency Standard & Poor’s, whose bearish stance on the likely cost of the Irish bank bailout has consistently been vindicated by events.

For what it is worth, some analysts now reckon that bailing out Anglo will cost up to €40bn.

This would push up the total cost of fixing our banks to €55bn.

However, horrific and all as it might be, a €55bn tab for sorting out the banks might be just about bearable if we and our creditors could be confident that this was the final figure. Unfortunately we can’t be sure that the meter will stop running at even this enormous figure.

When one looks closely at the figures published last week it is clear that, with the exception of Anglo, the extra capital being pumped into the banks relates almost exclusively to losses suffered on loans being sold to Nama or, in the case of AIB and Bank of Ireland, loans of between €5m and €20m that had originally been destined for Nama but will not now be transferred to the state’s bad bank.

Which, of course, begs the question, if the banks have suffered such horrific losses on the loans they are transferring to Nama, about a fifth of their total peak lending, what sort of losses can they expect on their other loans?

When it published its half-year results on August 4, AIB revealed that, after transferring about €23bn of bad loans to Nama and the disposal of its Polish, American and UK interests, that it would have a loan book of about €81bn.

This loan book will include €27bn of Irish residential mortgages, €32bn of business banking loans, €16bn of commercial and SME loans and €6bn of personal loans.

Over at Bank of Ireland, the composition of its expected post-Nama and disposals loan book looks remarkably similar to that its great rival.

Bank of Ireland is expecting to have a total loan book of €82bn of which €28bn will be Irish mortgages, €31bn of non-property lending to SMEs and other corporates, €24bn of property and construction lending and €4bn of consumer lending.

Meanwhile, Irish Life & Permanent‘s mortgage banking subsidiary Permanent TSB, which has transferred no bad loans to Nama and has not had to be bailed out by the taxpayer, had a €38.7bn loan book at the end of June which included €27.6bn of Irish residential mortgages, €8.1bn of UK residential mortgages, €2.3bn of commercial lending and €1.5bn of consumer lending.

What are the odds on at least some of the banks’ post-Nama loan books going bad?

Between them the six Irish-owned banks had €99bn of residential mortgages on their books at the end of June. With house prices now down by at least 50pc from the peak and still falling, a significant writedown in the bank’s mortgage loans books is inevitable.

Even a 20pc writedown would cost the banks a further €20bn in fresh loan losses.

The combined €50bn that AIB, Bank of Ireland and the Permo have lent to SMEs and other companies must also be vulnerable to further, substantial writedowns as is their €11.5bn of personal lending. And as for the banks’ non-Nama property and construction lending, I’d be very surprised if it wasn’t cause for a few sleepless nights among the surviving bank bosses.

Add it all up and it is clear that even the €55bn estimate for the cost of bailing out the banking system will be comfortably exceeded, with Standard & Poor’s now putting the likely figure at €90bn.

The way things are going, I suspect that the S&P estimate could well turn out to be a floor, below which the cost won’t fall, rather than a ceiling, above which it won’t rise.

Comment :

             +derivative Losses 200,000,000:00?

This figure is creeping up and up and up and This Minster Lenihan is definitely not firing on all cylinders!

He is going in the wrong direction, Mr Lenihan is still digging an even bigger hole and I think we will not now be able to get out of it without massive help from the IMF.

With the available figures still dirp, dirp, dripping out of the Finance Department I now believe we are looking at a possible 150,000,000,000:00 (Billion) but without a look at the books in Bank of Ireland, Allied Irish bank, and Irish Life and Permanent, remember these institutions are issuing their own bonds and the government are guaranteeing these bonds.

There are bonds coming up for renewal to the tune of 30 to 45 Billion from the various banks and I can’t see how the banks are going to re-finance under the current circumstances.

Needless to say we are not been given the full figures and I expect that Lenihan and his gang of financial terrorists will try to sneak out more bad figures soon ,this would more than likely be done using cronies from the various media they control .

At this stage we the public have been softened up and there is likely to be more and more drip drip feed of bad news.

The government’s attempt to con the opposition parties into a half-baked union is most telling and this tells me that the real figures must be really bad!  Even worse that my figures as I keep reminding people there is no mention of the huge losses on their derivatives trades by the  various banks and these losses will have to be brought out for all to see sometime .  
    
This brings a whole new meaning to the praise “Well connected”
This stinks to high heaven!

http://thepressnet.com/2010/10/03/nama-changes-were-designed-to-keep-bank-of-ireland-private/

and http://thepressnet.com/2010/10/02/majority-of-countrys-banking-system-nationalized/

Preliminary Report Into Ireland’s Banking Crisis 31 May 2010

After reading the Preliminary Report into Ireland’s Banking Crisis one can only come to the conclusion that Cowen and Lenihan are Guilty of “Gross Incompetence and Dereliction of Duty”
And should resign immediately and be brought before the courts
on charges of economic treason !

Preliminary Report Into Ireland’s Banking Crisis 31 May 2010

Irish Life Mortgage’s


Opposition parties have sought an assurance from the Government that other banks will not follow the lead of Permanent TSB if it puts up its variable mortgage interest rates.

Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said that no Minister for Finance since the foundation of the State had come into the Dáil and announced what mortgage interest rates would be.

He also pointed out that Permanent TSB had not applied to come under NAMA, nor had it sought any recapitalisation from the State.

Mr Lenihan added that Permanent TSB had paid for the benefit of the State 

Guarantees

and said the bank was in a difficult situation with historically low interest rates.

source http://www.rte.ie/business/2010/0128/mortgage.html

Lenihan again, cops out!

 Has he forgotten that is the Governments guarantees ,that keeps this corrupt financial Toxic Bank Afloat?

All he has to do is make a phone call, but for 70 thousand family’s,

 The sad news is,                                           

You’re not worth it!

NAMA Fraud!

 

We the people must not let the Gangsters in the Dail and the Banks get away with the massive fraud they intend to carry out under the Guise of NAMA

This is our money that is going down the Toilet; the Golden circle is still living the High life while the rest of us are languishing in Negative Equity, lying on trolleys in hospitals, standing in the ever growing Dole queues and heading for the Boat or the Airport

There is another way stand up and fight back get on to the streets ,organize in your own local areas and help maintain a permanent demonstration outside the Dail ,the head offices of the Banks, the Treasury Building and the Department of Finance.

Don’t just talk about it do something, help bring our grievances to the streets

I’m’ ready are you?

The Foxes minding the Chickens

The Governments intention to hold the inquire in the banking collapse in Private is an outright attack on Irish democracy

Having beaten down the will of the people to use the exiting democratic means to challenge them

We find that they are in total control of all the machinery of the state and they are using them to maintain their hold on power.

A recent poll on the performance of the governing parties is a complete farce.

The same radio station went out and asked the general public about the results and not one out of the members of the public supported the so called results of the earlier poll.

The News Media in this country is heavily infested by the ruling political elite

That is why there is a revolution going on with the whole way we access news to-day.

Bloggers are organizing themselves all around the country and demanding the same access as the established news media and probing into local corrupt practices within local county councils

(See for example https://mail.google.com/mail/?hl=en&shva=1#all/12654e2d240b57cd )

if you are want to start making a difference to the way the country is being run and get involved in direct action, you could start to-day by tacking action and fight for your right to be heard .

It’s your country and not the personal property of Brian Cowen, Brian lenihian, The Greens or indeed any of the political parity’s currently sitting the Dail

If you believe in an open economy, free enterprise, competition social justice

Then please get in touch and start an action group in your own area and help us to formulate a manifesto to challenge the established con artists that lurk within the current political system.

Join the CAB to-day

The Ireland of to-day!

 

The Ireland of to-day!


“Just look at us. Everything is backwards; everything is upside down. Doctors destroy health, lawyers destroy justice, universities destroy knowledge, governments destroy freedom, the major media destroy information and institutionalized, evangelicals] religions destroy spirituality, etc.”

Mahatma Gandhi:

Does this not accurately describe the Ireland of to-day?

Wake up, and fight back!

 

march against Government policies (1)

 

Caption taken from

www.Independent.ie

 

UP to 75,000 yesterday took to the streets to protest at €4bn in proposed Budget cuts — but the only thing that had changed by last night was that the country was €70m deeper in debt.

And Taoiseach Brian Cowen and his Cabinet insisted the Government would press ahead with the cuts in the Budget.

Last night, Mr. Cowen’s spokesman said the march would not shrink the gaping hole in the public finances.

When the marches were over, Defense Minister Willie O’Dea told the Irish Independent that the Government still had to take the difficult decisions.

 

Everybody seems to have forgotten who it was that got us into this mess in the first place .Mr.Cowen and Mr.Lenihan and the their Green Lackeys are responsible and when and not if the fireworks get started the people will hopefully get justice

The corrupt bankers and the incompetence of the financial regulator’s office must be addressed as well

We must take back all the golden handshakes that were given out to these crooks and criminal precautions must be sought

All bankers that were involved must be stripped of their pensions and other assets and these given back to the people who have lost their jobs and pensions

These fraudsters should be on trial for treason and the loss financial independence of Ireland

If the Government is looking for money they should go to the Irish permanent they have 7,000,000,000:00 sloshing  around to help out friends in distress!


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