Looking at the ESRI Quarterly Economic Commentary, summer 2009
I notice that they are predicting unemployment to top 12.6% and then next year they are predicting a top of 16%
Given that this body has never got its figures right I suspect that they are just guessing!
Example from March when the unemployment total was only 300K at the beginning of July we have according to government figures 411K
So an average of 30K added every month!
They are calming that this acceleration is slowing down, and this is where they believe
We will see a top of 11.6% at the end of this year!
BUT wait a minute!
Since most of our economy is based on consumer spending we have a lot more pain ahead of us along with all the new taxes on the way
these figures cannot be believed.
We in my own family have cut down on the VHI ,the phone the use of the car the take- a -ways even the Sunday news papers .
I am painting the house by and by myself I would say we are cutting about 50% out of discretionary spending.
Now extrapolate that to every family in the country and you start to get the picture!
We will see a rise of the unemployment figure at the end of the year to 550-590K
By the end of 2010 we will see at least 768.000 unemployed in this country and that is not counting the ca.50, 000. New young students and graduates that emerge from the third level collages every year
The government are also doing what most other governments are doing with the real figures and that is messaging them.
For example if you are or have being a self employed person and then register to go on to the dole, you do not show up on the live register, not for a year, then there are the people who are on the various trade courses and then there are the thousands in the community work programs that take anywhere from 2 weeks to 37 weeks
With the building industry destroyed, and nursing a disastrous oversupply in the housing stock
The same in the commercial building sector
The collapse of the financial services industry
Some Banks will have to go under (More on that topic soon) more job losses!
The disastrous tourist year to-date -30% and an oversupply of hotels all over the country (More Job Losses)
The need to slash jobs in the civil services
(We can’t afford to keep paying the overinflated numbers for such a small country)
Approximately 35 % of total civil services numbers will have to go I suspect (100.00 Jobs)
And the rest that are lucky to retain their jobs will have to nurse a 30 % shave off their salaries
And perks and come back down to earth and live amongst us humble citizens again!
The hint of big cuts on the way in the Health services
The already announced cuts in Education and more on the way
This is what to expect if the IMF are called in
Now for the big question
Where are 760.000 new jobs going to come from in the next 5 years???
Plus where are all the newly qualified students going to find work
Ask all the politicians that will be coming to your door soon
Do you believe that the ruling elite that got us into this mess should be forgiven and lead us as a country into the next 5 years
If so what message does that send out to all future political chasers?
Earlier in the year some minsters were saying that most of the immigrant workers were expected to go back to their countries, this was the spin around Christmas last
Well look at this graph from the ESRI and you will see that it tells a different story!
The most of them are clearly staying here!
So we might see even bigger numbers on the dole queues
The Government needs to be saving something in the order of 20 Billion and not pussy footing around with 3-5 billion. The longer they do this the more pain we will have to endure as a nation and the closer we might be coming to open revolt!
It’s time to take on the elephants’
Let Anglo Irish Bank Sink
Let Bank of Ireland Sink
Let Allied Irish bank Sink
Open a new Post Bank a credit union Bank
Stop bailing out international investors to the tune of Billions they took risks and they were paid handsomely for their risk .The Americans did not bail out the international investors of Laymen Brothers nether should we bail out the 10 golden circle investors of Anglo Irish Bank and the other high risk takers who played poker with our national wealth!
We must cut the civil service numbers by 30 %b at least and give the rest a minimum of 30 % hair cut!
We must immediately inject 4 billions into a stimulus for retraining re-education our work force population
Cut the Dail numbers to 50 slash pensions of former TD’s Minsters, Judges Teachers and any other Civil Servant earning a pension over the national industrial wage
Working for the public should not in turn make you better off financially than the people who you are supposed to be working for!
Full Stop! It’s time to get real
Bring the culprits that have engaged in corruption to justice and this means CAB taking everything away from them starting with the criminals in the dail and in the civil service and in the financial institutions