What is truth?

Posts tagged ‘Iran’

China Fires Shot Across Petrodollar Bow: Shanghai Futures Exchange May Price Crude Oil Futures In Yuan

by Tyler Durden

With the US shale revolution set to make America the largest exporter of crude,
however briefly, the influence of Saudi oil is rapidly declining. This has been
felt most recently in the cold shoulder the US gave Saudi Arabia and Qatar first
over the Syrian debacle, and subsequently in its overtures to break the ice with
Iran over the stern objections of Israel and the Saudi lobby (for a good example
of this the most recent soundbites
by Prince bin Talal
). But despite the shifting commodity winds and the
superficial political jawboning, the reality is that nothing threatens the US
dollar’s hegemony in what many claim is the biggest pillar of the currency’s
reserve status – the petrodollar, which literally makes the USD
the only currency in which energy-strapped countries can transact in to purchase
energy. This may be changing soon following news that the Shanghai
Futures Exchange could price its crude oil futures contract in yuan, its
chairman said on Thursday, adding that the bourse is speeding up preparatory
work to secure regulatory approvals.

full article : http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-21/china-fires-shot-across-petrodollar-bow-shanghai-futures-exchange-may-price-crude-oi

What must be said

Mr Gunter Grass published this poem What must be saidand caused quite a stir last week here in Germany

BY Günter Grass 

Why have I kept silent, held back so long, on something openly practiced in

war games, at the end of which those of us

who survive will at best be footnotes?

It’s the alleged right to a first strike

that could destroy an Iranian people

subjugated by a loudmouth

and gathered in organized rallies,

because an atom bomb may be being

developed within his arc of power.


Yet why do I hesitate to name

that other land in which

for years—although kept secret—

a growing nuclear power has existed

beyond supervision or verification,

subject to no inspection of any kind?


This general silence on the facts,

before which my own silence has bowed,

seems to me a troubling lie, and compels

me toward a likely punishment

the moment it’s flouted:

the verdict “Anti-semitism” falls easily.


But now that my own country,

brought in time after time

for questioning about its own crimes,

profound and beyond compare,

is said to be the departure point,

(on what is merely business,

though easily declared an act of reparation)

for yet another submarine equipped

to transport nuclear warheads

to Israel, where not a single atom bomb

has yet been proved to exist, with fear alone

the only evidence, I’ll say what must be said.


But why have I kept silent till now?

Because I thought my own origins,

Tarnished by a stain that can never be removed,

meant I could not expect Israel, a land

to which I am, and always will be, attached,

to accept this open declaration of the truth.


Why only now, grown old,

and with what ink remains, do I say:

Israel’s atomic power endangers

an already fragile world peace?

Because what must be said

may be too late tomorrow;

and because—burdend enough as Germans

we may be providing material for a crime

that is foreseeable, so that our complicity

wil not be expunged by any

of the usual excuses.


And granted: I’ve broken my silence

because I’m sick of the West’s hypocrisy;

and I hope too that many may be freed

from their silence, may demand

that those responsible for the open danger

we face renounce the use of force,

may insist that the governments of

both Iran and Israel allow an international authority

free and open inspection of

the nuclear potential and capability of both.


No other course offers help

to Israelis and Palestinians alike,

to all those living side by side in emnity

in this region occupied by illusions,

and ultimately, to all of us.


Günter Grass

Translated by Breon Mitchell

Why Attacking Iran Will Not Work in 2012

By: Patrick_Henningsen

Currently, the US is following a trajectory of past unsuccessful empires that   were unable to sustain themselves resulting in an eventual collapse from within.   The US is currently running up a budget deficit which is not only   threatening to bankrupt its entire economy, but also threatening the hegemony of   its sole instrument for advantage and influence on the world stage – the US   dollar. Any threat to the supremacy of the dollar is also a threat to the   empire.

It is difficult to calculate the outcome of a western   attack against Iran -because there are so many variables.

No moral mandate

For centuries, even Rome required a moral mandate as it conquered the known   world. As was the case with the Iraqi invasion and occupation in 2003, the West   and its Axis powers led by Washington will require a multi-nation coalition   backed by some form of moral mandate in order to move forward with their   plans.

Previously, a US-UK campaign against Iraq’s alleged weapons of mass   destruction was waged through the UN, and was sufficient at the time in   achieving a minimal sway in public opinion needed from both the American and   British people, justifying their governments’ foreign policy goals enough to get   the war off the ground. But the cost in 2012 of pushing forward under false   pretences with both Afghanistan and Iraq in 2003, means that the Axis coalition   powers have already played their best hand under the current social democratic   system.

full article at source:http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article32471.html

American General is asked if he has authority to bomb Iran……………………

Look what happens to an American General when he is asked if
he has authority to bomb Iran without congressional authority

Did he just swallow his tongue, he sure looks like he just S***  himself ?

This is nowhere near over.

By “This”, we mean the regional contagion, spreading violence and rising geopolitical risk in the Middle East and North Africa. Reports say that Libya has stopped producing oil and that pipeline delivery to Europe (Italy) is interrupted. Libya seems headed for complete dismemberment and full-blown civil war.

Note that China is evacuating 15,000 workers. China! Imagine that we learn there are as many workers from China in Libya as there are workers from Egypt. Anyone still think this is a local idiosyncratic event.

We are watching a “sea change” occur among one tenth of the world’s population and among the world’s low cost marginal producers of the world’s energy. Scenarios with benign outcomes and peaceful transitions appear remote.

Note how the region’s worst of the bad actors seize their opportunities where they find them. Every success emboldens them. A case study is Iran’s two ships transiting the Suez. Also, note how the most suppressive regimes like Syria, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Libya have learned how to suppress social networks, cut off cell phones, block internet traffic and reverse or alter the information flows.

Consider that suppressive regimes are not an encouraging environment for business risk taking and capital investment. This true around the world. Despots maintain their power with only harsh methods whether in the Middle East or North Korea or Venezuela. Simply put: a thug is a thug. Their actions eventually stymie and persecute thoughtful and creative internal forces. Despots raise costs and lower production. In addition, the energy dependent western democracies are now learning that despots are also not reliable longer-term partners.

Also, consider that success by demonstrators and protesters leads to additional demonstrations and increasing demands for reforms. We believe that the turmoil and regime change in the region has a long way to go. We also believe that forecasting the outcomes is a highly problematic exercise. Do we end up with open democracy or Islamized fundamentalist states or something else? This is going to be determined on a case-by-case basis. We do not know the outcomes. History says that emerging democracies are rare in the Middle East.

A sea change can bring on a protracted period of higher oil and energy pricing. The US economy is ill prepared for it. Our policies border on madness. We do not drill for oil off our coast. In the Gulf, deep water drilling is encouraged in Cuban national waters but not in American waters. On American land, we spend billions subsidizing an uneconomic program called ethanol. We raid the federal treasury to put money in the pockets of the politically connected few. In addition, we raise the price of corn and farmland and global Ag output to increase the starvation of millions of people. Thank you Washington and specifically a few members of America’s congress.

Back to the Middle East. Consider that a 1-penny increase in the price of a gallon of gasoline acts as a sales tax on consumers at the rate of 1.2 billion dollars a year (Naroff Economics estimate). A one-dollar rise in the price of oil eventually leads to a 2.5-cent increase in gasoline on average (Moody’s estimate). It is easy to get to a $4-$5 range for gasoline in the US.

Add that to the food price surge and we have a shock. We have already consumed about half of the 2% payroll tax cut. It appears higher gas prices will use up the other half and more by Memorial Day. Gasoline at 4 to 5 dollars a gallon will be enough to turn the improving consumer sentiment numbers into deteriorating ones and will hurt the fragile economic recovery. It will also set back any hope for stability in the housing sector.

If we flirt with a double dip recession, the Fed may be debating QE3 by late summer. So far, QE2 seems to have little impact. It may turn out to have been too small to do very much. A few hundred billion in a mass of many trillions is not very much.

Consider that there has been no significant increase in the amount of federal debt reaching the markets. To get to that conclusion, add up all the new treasury issuance, subtract the shrinkage of Fannie and Freddie debt and subtract the Fed’s purchases. The net result is that most of the federal deficit is being financed without increasing the publicly traded portion.

So why have treasury bond interest rates risen since QE2, if they are not driven by the deficit. They may be driven by inflation expectations or flight from the dollar or re-allocation of portfolios. However, they do not seem to be higher due to direct federal borrowing from the markets.

So where is this going?

Any slowing of the US economy from this energy shock may act to lower interest rates and dampen inflation expectations. Higher energy prices can mean that something else does not get purchased. We may see substitution and not inflation.

We think being full invested when there is a shooting war in a major oil producing country is folly. There is one position that must be maintained. We are high in energy overweight. We are underweighted in consumer discretionary exposure.

This is nowhere near over.


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