By: Christopher Quigley
What a market. Even the most experienced traders that I know are having a difficult time getting a handle on what is happening. Wednesday’s market action caught a lot of folk napping. Monday’s 216 point drop in the Dow Industrials convinced many that finally the much anticipated market “correction” had arrived.
The slight “uptick” on Tuesday was a classic VIX buy signal but it turned out to be a trap. Those traders who shorted the market on the 26th were pulverized by the bullish 175 Dow point move on the 27th.
What can we make of such whiplash moves?
For me, regardless of the economy, the movement of the market is understandable when you assess it through the paradigm of Dow Theory. The market is powering forward because technically it is very strong. This strength was first indicated by the 128 point breakout in the Dow Transports on the second of January. Prior to this the Dow 20 had traded within a trading line for nearly a year. It was perfectly clear to Dow Theory aficionados that the momentum and the direction of any breakout from this “range line” would be highly significant. The 307 point follow through move on the Dow Industrials on the same day as the Trannies breakout confirmed the trend. With Dow Theory “ a trend once in place continues until both indices confirm otherwise”. Nothing has happened in the last few days to alter this January bull move. Thus the correct trading strategy at the moment is to go long on pullbacks not short “potential” tops.
full report Wealthbuilder Market Brief 1st March 2013
By Sam Collins
One of the remarkable technical events of the past 12 months is the breakout and blast-off of the Dow Jones Transportation Average. On Tuesday, the index set a new all-time high after breaking from a 10-month consolidation in early December.
RSI is somewhat overbought, and Tuesday’s spike to new highs could lead to some profit-taking. But the momentum of this remarkable performance is usually predictive of a better-performing economy, and thus, a pullback in this or any index should be viewed as a buying opportunity.
Conclusion: Despite the lack of volume, stocks appear headed to new highs, boosted by better-than-expected retail sales and the anticipation of a better economic climate. Even the breakdown of the most influential technology stock of the decade (Apple), the fiscal cliff, and the threat of a U.S. bond default have failed to stop the advance………….
full article at source: http://investorplace.com/2013/01/daily-stock-market-news-market-forging-higher-not-yet-warning-of-a-top/?sid=KE8137&cp=OZDT&ct=201301116&cc=eletter&en=4524897
Spain has crossed the rubicon, and entered into bad decision nirvana as it too decided to ban short selling, which has worked so well for all of those other smart countries which have done so. For instance, when the US did it in 2008, they helped their bank’s shares float to the tune of -48%! Hey, with friends like that, who needs enemies. When will they learn that tempering/tampering with financial markets is not ever as good as it sounds. Keep in mind that short sales put a natural floor under weak securities by creating natural sellers at the end or a trade (whether the trade is successful or not). If the stock is truly overvalued (hear’s to you European banks), then the shares are going to drop anyway as the holders of those shares sell to get out of them. Without shorts, there will be no buying on the way down as speculators and astute investors cover profitable short sales and the only bids you will get are at rock bottom where fundamental guys feel there “deals that can’t be refused” (except for the occasional BTFD fools along the way). That is usually a bid that’s much higher than would have been achieved through the short sale. Of course, nobody explained this to the Spanish
full article at source: http://boombustblog.com/blog/item/6126-surprise-spain-makes-the-same-ass-backwards-mistake-that-the-us-and-uk-made-banning-shortselling
By Anthony Wile (Daily Bell)
Here’s some interesting news along the lines of “man bites dog.” According to a recent Reuters article, US financial advisors are actually growing leery of US Treasury bonds.
This is almost unheard of and one could certainly make a case that it is a sign of most unsettled times. Ordinarily, financial advisors, especially those in the US, are disposed to provide Treasuries for most every ill.
They are seen as repositories of value, security and liquidity – and this perspective has been preached relentlessly to the average US consumer. And yet now we now find a much different perspective, being reported by Reuters:
It’s the newest market riddle: where do you go for safety when the traditional option could be in a bubble?
With fiscal problems in Europe once again leading to sharp drops in global stock markets, many investors are seeking out stable assets that can both protect their principal and generate an income stream to keep up with inflation.
full article at source: http://www.thedailybell.com/3883/Anthony-Wile-Treasuries-and-Derivatives-Blow-Up-So-Where-Do-You-Go–
Today was a nice day in Lubeck the sun was a little slow coming out but when it did it was great.I have noticed to price increases on petrol here and folks in Ireland beware ,this is what you local garage prices are going to look like very soon.
Since my last trade update I have gone into and out of BAC making profits on the way up but loosing on the protection puts (845.00$) I see this as a necessary cost of doing business however the net picture is an overall gain as of today’s action alone 1200$ and when I count the rest of the month I recon we have a net gain of 3782$.This is for six days trading so far this month (March) As I am not in the market everyday and I have to wait until the market presents an oppertunityfor me !.( Remember you dont have to be in the market all the time.) .I am currently heavy on the put side now for a quick test of the 8.50 on BAC, But I expect it (BAC) will go for the 9.63 mark first and meet resistance .
With the profits on the stock side (now ,again 1600) plus 10 call contracts on the may 9 strike We are in for a few dollars more ! I am using these profits to purchase the put 9 strike in May which are now dirt cheap, and I have until may for an eventual 8.50 pullback to be right .If I am wrong the continued rise in the stock should help me counter losses in the puts by purchasing more calls or puts whichever way the market goes on the day .The most important thing is to match any move the market throws at you (Massage you trades to counter any potential loss) until the trade is in a strangl and it wont matter which way the stock goes after that, your are on a win win trade then!
Remember allways be hedged! Good trading!
Trading up-date with Machholz
Well my friends we are losing our shirts on our protective puts and there is no more value but time now, however we have as a result of the Bank of America stock ( Total stock 3500 )movement up from a purchase price of $5.01- $5.15 we are experiencing a very healthy profit and to offset any losses in these puts total gains for month so far is approx **$9,875 +$ 672 to offset the losses on the puts.
All in all a nice months work and this should pay for my rent in Lubeck for the coming year! Nice one!
Have purchased new protective 8$ puts up until April Just in case the bottom falls out of the market
Remember always be hedged I am still holding on to my stock as I believe we have a way to go but if I am wrong I make a few bob on the way back down !But I think we are going to see at least a move up to the 200 MDA and maybe beyond!
**This includes all trades that includes other stock and option trades not highlighted in trading posts.