By Finfacts Team
The Central Bank said today that its expects weak growth this year with a
continuation of the gradual recovery in the overall level of economic activity,
though at a slightly slower pace than previously expected
In its Q4 2013 bulletin [pdf],
the Bank says its latest forecasts for GDP (gross domestic product) growth for
2013 and 2014 are marginally lower than those published in the last bulletin.
GDP growth of 0.5% is now projected for this year, with growth of 2.0% forecast
for 2014, representing a downward revision of 0.2 and 0.1%, respectively, to the
previous forecasts for 2013 and 2014. The forecast for GNP (gross national
product), mainly excluding the profits of the multinational sectors has also
been revised down in a similar fashion and is now projected to grow by 0.1% this
year, and by 1.2% next year.
full article at source: http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1026631.shtml
After four years of the crisis, there are four empirical regularities to be learned from Ireland
’s economic performance. The first one is that the idea of internal devaluation
, aka prices and wages deflation, as the only mechanism to attain debt deleveraging, is not working. The second is that the conventional hypothesis of a V-shaped recovery
from the structural crisis, manifested in economic growth
collapse, debt overhang
and assets bust, is a false one. The third fact is that Troika confidence in our ability to meet ‘targets’ has little to do with the real economic performance. And the fourth is that exports-led recovery is a pipe dream for an economy in which exports growth is driven by FDI.
Restoring growth requires structural change that can facilitate private companies and entrepreneurs search for new catalysts for investment and consumption, jobs creation and exports.
For anyone with any capacity to comprehend economic reality, Quarterly National Accounts
(QNA) results for Q4 2011, showing the second consecutive quarterly contraction in GDP
, should have come as no surprise. In these very pages, months ago I stated that all real indicators – Purchasing Managers indices, retail sales, consumer and producer prices, property prices, industrial turnover figures, banking sector activity, and even our external trade statistics – point South. Yet, the Government continues to believe in Troika reports and statistical aberrations produced by superficial policy and methodological changes.
full article at source:
Have a look at this excellent article from
by Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev
Much ignored by irish media so far, the US Congressional proposals to reform corporate tax system are gaining
speed and have serious implications for Ireland. In the nutshell, today, US
House Ways & Means Committee Chairman Dave Camp described some of his report
Lower corporate tax rate to 25 from 35%
Exempting 95% of overseas earnings from US tax
Introducing a tax holiday on repatriated profits
For US MNCs operating in Ireland this will serve as a powerful incentive to
on-shore profits accumulated in Ireland. While the full impact is impossible to
gauge – it is likely to be significant, running into 50% plus of retained
This will, in turn, translate into higher Net Income Outflows from Ireland
(see QNA) and thus directly depress our Gross National Product.