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Posts tagged ‘Finance’

Arrears and the Paradox of Aggregation

By David Mc Williams

So we have arrived at the day when the State has to deal with the consequences of the housing binge on the balance sheet of the ordinary person. A few years ago, people who warned this day would come were dismissed as doom-mongers. Now we see what was clear all along: the real merchants of doom were those who harassed a generation of people into debt, condemning them to negative equity and unpayable mortgages. This problem has to be fixed because the economy, burdened with such huge levels of debt, cannot grow.

It’s a simple equation. If people are paying back debt, they are not spending on other things. The economy runs on the basis that, in the aggregate, my spending is your income and your spending is my income.

Therefore, if people are not spending because they are paying back debt, everyone’s income eventually falls…………………………………………

full article at source: http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2013/03/14/arrears-and-the-paradox-of-aggregation

Jim Corr’s Message to the people of Ireland (was he right????)

Comment:

By Thomas O Cleirigh

On 23rd November 2010 this brave Irish patriot (Jim Corr) came out and warned the people of Ireland of the pearls of the engineered financial crash that our country was going through. I thought it would be interesting to once again to look at his video clip and see how things have turned out and what new information has emerged .One thing is for sure he called it exactly right, all of his warnings have turned out to be true and the sophisticated financial scam has destroyed our country and the gangsters who are continuing to carry out the will of the hidden money men are still in power.

Wake up Ireland ,we need more real patriots and true Irishmen and woman ,who will stand by the interests of our people and cast off the shackles of financial slavery imposed by corrupt politicians who are the puppets of hidden bondholders.

BIS Calls for Hyperinflationary Depression?

By the Daily Bell

The Bank for International Settlements Sunday issued an oblique endorsement of coordinated action by the world’s largest central banks to ease funding conditions for banks. “A freezing of interbank markets in major funding currencies, as during the recent crisis, may require the ability to supply official liquidity in major currencies in an elastic manner,” the BIS wrote in its regular quarterly report.” – MarketWatch

Dominant Social Theme: Inflate! And everything will work out.

Free-Market Analysis: We’ve already indicated that we believe the Anglosphere power elite is attempting to create a kind of Great Depression in order to ease the path of world government. This squib of an article in MarketWatch (excerpted above) – unnoticed by most of the mainstream press – only reconfirms our impression.

It endorses recent “coordinated” central banking loosening. But it does more: “A freezing of interbank markets in major funding currencies, as during the recent crisis, may require the ability to supply official liquidity in major currencies in an elastic manner.”

Think about that. The BIS, whatever it is, is all for printing lots of money. And the BIS is no small-time trade group. It is perhaps the most powerful (and least known) global business body in the world. Its mysteries are manifold. its workings are well-hidden.

Of course, somebody actually set up the Bank for International Settlements in the late 1930s. And since then someone has set up or helped set up about 200 central banks around the world, many of them reporting directly to the BIS.

full article at source :http://www.thedailybell.com/3339/BIS-Calls-for-Hyperinflationary-Depression

Good morning Ireland

Good Morning all out there in Webland.The News from Ireland is
not great and is bordering on grim!

After the company Aviva called all its workers to a “Meeting” and after a heated presentation the workers were in effect left in limbo according to Kevin
Hough of the Galway advertiser
.This is just the start as I believe we are about to see a massive rationalization of the financial industry.AIB Bank of Ireland and Irish life and Permanent not to forget the up to two thousand staff in Anglo Irish Bank still pushing papers from one end of their desks to the other all day for nothing .In case you have
forgotten all these are in fact quasi civil servants and I  believe the taxpayers of the country are going to pay a heavy price to offload these now surplice to requirement staff. I
reckon we could see up to 12,500 staff layoff in the coming year from the
financial sector. Watch this space, I hear rumblings and there are getting louder!

Last week I approached the local friendly Bank manager with a prepossession
to buy a commercial building in Dublin a proposition that was self
financing .I was in a position to raise 35% of the required capital and the
rental income was netting a 12.5% return on the latest agreed lease
arrangements with the current tenant. After a promise to get back to me I
called the said manager at home last evening only to be told that the manager
could not secure the loan facility as the bank could not supply the funds .I
called to the local car dealership looking for a seven seater we are getting
rid of two cars and downsizing to one family car. Having asked how business was
going the sales person told me customers are not able to get any funds from the
banks, one well established business man was refused an 8,000 euro loan for a commercial second hand car.This is just one of many such stories I am hearing from around the town .The main roads are empty there is noticeable very little traffic on the roads and the shops are empty. Apart from the shops that have closed down there is one
good news story a new deli shop is about to open (Brave investor! see photos)I
called into a few shops and got the same story costs (rates, water charges etc)
are up and punters are as scarce as the proverbial abominable snowman ..On the
Marlton road the works are continuing at a snail’s pace but still going forward
we should have a joined up footpath by Christmas!

Well the really good news is the lottery wasn’t won and I am off to get me ticket

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The euro will fall towards $1.30 before year-end.

LONDON: A darkening euro zone economic
outlook, a shrinking interest rate advantage and scepticism over European
authorities’ ability to resolve the sovereign debt crisis have raised the risk
the euro will fall towards $1.30 before year-end.

The single currency has already broken below $1.40 — a level around which sovereign demand has been clustered — and plumbed a six-month low around $1.3790 on Friday after the European Central Bank on Thursday signalled a halt to its policy tightening.

A near 5 percent fall in the euro against the dollar in the 10 days reflects investor concern
over the stability of fiscally weak euro zone countries, including Greece and
Italy, which in turn has shaken confidence in the region’s banking system.

Full article at source: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/forex/Euro-risks-fall-to-130-as-Europe-struggles-on-debt/articleshow/9923882.cms

What Happens When That Juggler Gets Clumsy?(Reggie Middleton)

 

Anybody thinking of going into the markets now should at least take a look at this blog Reggie has been spot on now for the last 4 years I’ve been following him.

 

By Reggie Middleton

 

It has been hard for true fundamental investors to reliably make money since the bear market rally of this generation (c. 2nd quarter 2009) due to the fact that global market central planners world wide (read as central bankers and their cohorts) have been distorting price discovery and realistic valuations to an unprecedented extent. Counting the money just doesn’t work when no one truly respects and valued money but you. In essence, central bankers world wide (starting here in the US, with our central bank) have disrupted and disrespected the economic circle of life. For a detailed explanation of this happenstance, see Do Black Swans Really Matter? Not As Much as the Circle of Life, The Circle Purposely Disrupted By Multiple Central Banks Worldwide!!! But….. Those very same central bankers/central planners have to juggle many, too many, balls in order to keep this charade afloat. Yes, sink this charade will – and when it does, it will probably look very ugly. Now, its a timing game. As the title inquires…

source and full article here :http://boombustblog.com/BoomBustBlog/What-Happens-When-That-Juggler-Gets-Clumsy.html

America’s true reason for intervention

Sent in to us this morning

By

America‘s true reason for intervention, and missile attacks against
Libya has become very clear today with a sudden creation by the rebels of a new
central bank on March 29th.

The rebels in Libya are in the middle of a life or death civil war and Moammar
Gadhafi is still in power and yet somehow the Libyan rebels have had enough
time to establish a new Central Bank of Libya and form a new national oil
company. Perhaps when this conflict is over those rebels can become time
management consultants. They sure do get a lot done. What a skilled bunch of
rebels – they can fight a war during the day and draw up a new central bank and
a new national oil company at night without any outside help whatsoever. If
only the rest of us were so versatile! But isn’t forming a central bank
something that could be done after the civil war is over? According to
Bloomberg, the Transitional National Council has “designated the Central
Bank of Benghazi as a monetary authority competent in monetary policies in
Libya and the appointment of a governor to the Central Bank of Libya, with a
temporary headquarters in Benghazi.” – The Economic Collapse via Uruknet

Continue reading on Examiner.com America’s true reason for attacking Libya becomes
clear with new central bank – National Finance Examiner | Examiner.com

http://www.examiner.com/finance-examiner-in-national/america-s-true-reason-for-attacking-libya-becomes-clear-with-new-central-bank?fb_comment=31429431#ixzz1RE4oUUTB

Comment:

I don’t find myself in agreement with the general thrust of this article but I do respect the
possibility of some truth in it as we all know that America always looks out for itself and its interests first. Just look over at Bahrain and Saudi Arabia the democracy movement was crushed and Saudi Arabian forces invaded Bahrain and nobody in the west said anything indeed the news media just went silent. There are still reports seeping out about torture and summary executions and the world media are ignoring these reports why because Saudi Arabia in the American sphere of interest and is a no go area for the established media that is mostly controlled by American interests !

Take a look of a simple for the actions of the government in this country
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRlPwaiMw6k&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1QjoEMKJCc8&feature=channel_video_title
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1f42cSy384Q&feature=channel_video_title
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_we3qxzWUWw&skipcontrinter=1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x50hglSMXTY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3uDwnr4uPD4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ymuAIaUKhY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H-tP_k80yXA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ACKskuYUqt4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qhnjpSJhInY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dlmhOd4ScJE
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hDKruSCu0xE&skipcontrinter=1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GbtAa9zdXtE&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SMNlVoJkXMc&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AG9IacKr3Yc&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=35AHq64XxBo&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dLXeNZ3Q0mI&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fiIILd9MtXQ&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-xNQurFBkKU&feature=related

UNDERWATER :NATION THAT CANNOT SWIM

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Comments by economists continue to center on consumer spending and desired job growth, without any mention of business investment and reduced regulatory impediments. The nation has no clue among leaders to engineer a recovery. Tragically, it is not possible unless the housing market rebounds convincingly, and unless the big US banks are liquidated. The negative momentum is so grotesque. It is like a man sliding backwards on a steep icy street with no objects nearby to grab. The remarkable fact in my view is that so many trained economists and market mavens are shocked that the USEconomy is entering another recession. They must have considered Clunker Car program, New Homebuyer Tax Credit initiative, and the General Motors bailout all to be genius concepts. They seem poorly trained in capitalism, and well trained in asset inflation management laced with public indoctrination. To the sound money crowd, the degradation was obvious. The landscape is taking on the same look at mid-2008 when all hell broke loose on the financial and economic fronts. It should not be so surprising, since nothing has been fixed.

Innovation remains prevalent among technology and telecommunication firms. Too bad so much of the product output is done by US subsidiaries in Asia. The USGovt leadership thought a green revolution would make for a solid initiative until it realized that most of the purchases would come from Asia. The high speed rail projects almost all involve Chinese equipment. The US is so badly on a slippery slope, that a simple debt default might be the best of outcomes to hope for, given the nasty added ramifications that could come from chaos. The main location for innovation within the USEconomy seems to be in financial fraud and military weapons. Former USFed Chairman Volcker once accused the financial industry of having only one productive innovation in three decades, the automatic teller machine (ATM), a scurrilous accusation indeed.

The American people, having been exposed to a powerful cost surge, futile compromises to address the USGovt budget deficits, profound mortgage fraud, a series of fixes without solution that are disguised elite banker redemptions, tremendous waste of over $2.5 trillion in various policy initiatives, exemption from Wall Street prosecution, chronic housing market decline, and phony economic statistics, are awakening to the reality of a systemic failure USEconomy, punctuated by a USTreasury Bond default. The preliminary signal is full isolation by the USFed as sole buyer of USTreasurys at USGovt debt auctions. They are currently buying about 80% of USGovt debt at official auctions. Many dopey analysts have put forth the notion, even within the gold community, that a debt default is impossible given the control of the global reserve currency to cover the debt. This is shallow thinking in my view. Once the USFed and its monetary engines are exposed on the world stage to rely upon hyper monetary inflation to sustain the broken USGovt financial contraption where fraud and war and insolvency are the three passengers without a driver, the USDollar will be punished, avoided, and become the object of even more profound revolt. The leaders can swim only if they push others in the pool underwater. Most debt default starts with a nasty run on the currency.

The underwater nation suffers from massive insolvency in the banking sector. Three bad jokes are played upon the US public. 1) They are told that the banks hold large Excess Reserve accounts at the USFed, earning interest income. Lie! The funds are Loan Loss Reserves moved from the banks to the USFed, where the central bank is hiding its own insolvency. The banks will need those funds to cover losses. The USFed by loose calculations is between $1.4 trillion and $1.8 trillion in the red, mainly from purchasing overpriced mortgage assets, some of whose leveraged items are totally worthless. The housing market is not coming back. The USFed itself is starging at the abyss, and might resign its commission. 2) The big US banks claim also that they have tightened their lending standards. Lie! They are insolvent and therefore must reduce their lending on a grand scale. The big US banks are in possession of far less capital than they claim, thanks to the FASB accounting rule change put into effect in April 2009. Their plight worsens. They cannot dump REO bank owned homes on a depressed market. The big US banks are trapped in an extreme and worsening condition, insolvent to the tune of $3 trillion. The FDIC pretends to have funds to support over $7 trillion in banking deposits, but their insurance fund has long been depleted. The MyBudget360 outfit does great work in analysis of the housing market and mortgage finance. See their chart below on bank balance sheet over-statement. 3) Lastly, US corporations we are told own huge cash balances. Lie! Their foreign subsidiaries command the cash, and it will not be put to work on US soil, even with handsome benefits to repatriate the funds. Business prospects look horrible in the United States, the land of fraud, insolvency, and war.

So as Rome burns, the legislators fiddle and the generals wage war for private gain. The situation is best put into perspective by David Stockman, former Budget Director in the Reagan Admin. He said, “The real problem is the de-facto policy of both parties is default. When the Republicans say no tax increases, they are saying we want the US government to default. Because there is not enough political will in this country to solve the problem even halfway on spending cuts. When the Democrats say you cannot touch Social Security, when you have Obama sponsoring a war budget for defense that is even bigger than Bush, then I say the policy of the White House is default as well.”

But the true insanity and unfixable nature are brought into proper perspective by John Williams, who heralds from the noble Shadow Government Statistics clan. He said, “[The USGovt deficit] cannot be covered by taxes. The government could take 100% of everyone’s income, corporate profits, and it would still be in deficit. [Conversely] they could also cut every penny in government spending except for Medicare and Social Security, and they would be in deficit.” The message by Williams is that the national government finances are not even remotely fixable, even with total income confiscation, even with almost full government shutdown!! GOLD & SILVER PRICES SHOULD ZOOM ON A BILLBOARD MESSAGE BY STOCKMAN AND WILLIAMS ALONE. My forecast made in September 2008 stands, that the USGovt debt default will occur in two to three years time. Time is up, and the threat of debt default looms large.

NOTHING FIXED, STILL INSOLVENT & FRAUD RIDDEN

The following paragraph should be read twice:

One should constantly remember that no solution to the financial crisis has been installed, nothing fixed, no big banks liquidated, no end to monetary inflation, no end to outsized USGovt deficits, no change of Goldman Sachs running the USGovt finance ministry, no discharge of big bank home inventory, no end to secretive subterranean support of stocks and bonds, no revival of the housing market, no return of US industry from Asia, no prosecution of Wall Street for multi-$trillion bond fraud, no end to money laundering of narco funds to Wall Street banks, no interruption to the endless costly wars, no end to the propaganda obediently pumped out by the US press & media networks. Nothing has changed except that some commodities are lower in price, including the queen Silver.

The steady stream of debt downgrades around the world curiously overlooks perhaps the worst offender of all, the United States. Refer to its  horrendous PIIGS-like key ratios with much higher volume of debt. It seems good sport to nail Greece or Spain with a debt downgrade, when the US wrestles with a debt limit and chronic $1.5 trillion annual deficits, even costly endless wars. So Moodys is telling the USCongress that they better raise the debt ceiling or else. Or else what? Nothing!! The German debt rating agency Feri had the stones to downgrade the USGovt debt from AAA to AA. It is a significant slap in the face. They pointed to the fact that for the third consecutive year, the USGovt deficit is over 10% relative to gross domestic product (GDP). Its CEO Tobias Schmidt said, “The US government has fought the effects of the financial market crisis primarily by an increase in government debt. We do not see that here is sufficient alternative measures. Our rating system shows a deterioration, so the downgrading of the credit ratings of US is warranted. Deficits of such magnitude are not a sustainable fiscal policy. We would reconsider the rating when the US government creates a long-term sustainable budget.”

The debt rating agencies are bound by extreme political pressure, and probably secretive pressures also, maybe even outright bribery or violent threats. The agencies can shoot at the scouts like Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo, but few if any alarm bells are actually going off. The champion of all insider trading, of investing in opposition to clients, of front running USGovt policy, of deceptive collusion with foreign governments on currency swaps to hide debt, the venerable Goldman Sachs might be in some trouble. The Goldman Sachs credit default swap could serve as a predictor for USGovt debt default. It has begun to rise and cause concern.

 It is almost funny, if not tragic, that despite deferred criminal prosecution on mortgage bond fraud, despite being banned in Europe for misrepresentation and collusion to conceal sovereign debt, Goldman Sachs still has total control of the USDept Treasury. If only the people were more aware that GSax under Robert Rubin leased, sold, and leveraged a few $trillion in profit from the gold bullion that used to reside in Fort Knox. A reliable source has a friend who manages a security group in Fort Knox, which is used today to store nerve gas, nothing more, certainly no gold. The Jackass fully expects a USGovt debt default will come in the form of a forced debt forgiveness, during a grand global conference, with a hidden military threat looming. Events in Libya are extremely telling on the threat of war and wealth confiscation. A total of $95 billion in frozen (later stolen) Qaddafi wealth is a strong banker motive to conduct a good war in Libya. In all, $32 billion in Libyan funds were frozen in major US banks, and 45 billion Euros were frozen in major European banks.

Two events occurred within 24 hours of big significance. 1) The USFed Chairman Bernanke spoke after the financial markets closed. He cited numerous singular events to blame for the rising price inflation that has plagued the USEconomy in recent months. He accepts no responsibility from the historically unprecedented release of the hyper monetary inflation spigot to cover the USGovt debts and purchase USTreasury Bonds that the world no longer wants. The USFed is currently purchasing between 75% and 80% of all USTreasury auction bonds, notes, and bills. They use a nifty quick turnaround with the obligated Primary Bond Dealers. What used to distributed to bond funds like PIMCO and pension funds across the US land are no more. The dedicated Primary Bond Dealers have resorted to shoving all the USTreasury product back to the USFed inside one month in anything but routine FOMC operations, usually in two weeks time. The US financial press reports hardly a peep. In the last few months, every time Bernanke spoke, to discuss the weak prospects of the USEconomy, the high commodity price phenomenon, the putrid banking situation, the droopy housing market, the falling USDollar, and the ongoing activity of Quantitative Easing, the USDollar fell and the Gold price rose. Nothing has changed in that respect. Waiting until 5pm to speak only caused the response to occur in the next morning.

2) The OPEC nations met at their usual pow-wow in Vienna Austria, but they accomplished nothing. They split 6 in favor and 6 against on a crude oil production increase. The dirty little secret is that the Saudis no longer have ANY spare capacity. The world always counts on the Saudis to compensate for lost output like what has been felt from Libyan disruption. The crude oil price jumped $2 quickly on Wednesday morning. My view is that the OPEC nations no longer harbor any sympathy for Western nations, have no interest in relieving their cost problems from rising energy prices. They see their own food prices rising fast, when they are more vulnerable to food prices as a people. They observe the unrest in Egypt, the war in Libya, and can see the flight of gold from those countries, while assets are confiscated in Western banks. The OPEC nations see more opportunity to gather in greater petro income at a time of great strain for their own economies and banking systems.

A geopolitical impact is on the horizon. The Saudis cannot increase output. The Petro-Dollar defacto standard is built on Saudi oil, whose volume is far less than believed. They have a dead elephant oilfield in Ghawar, details in the private reports. The Bernanke speech that cited numerous exogenous factors, plus the OPEC stalemate, seems to provide the Gold & Silver price the lit fuse for rising. The Petro-Dollar requires USMilitary protection of the Saudi royal billionaires. They are busy cutting deals for Persian Gulf security from China and Russia. It requires control of oil supply by the Saudis. It requires a US$-based purchase & sale of crude. All three requirements are slowly vanishing. The Petro-Dollar is dying a slow death. With its disappearance will come the Third World to the United States.

QE3 A CERTAINTY

Ultimately, the wretched condition of the USEconomy, the US banks, the US households, and the USGovt guarantees continuation of Quantitative Easing. The USFed and USDept Treasury are actively pursuing a Scorched Earth program to send the financial markets downward, even as the laundry list of horrendous USEconomic statistics reads endlessly. Details on the degradation of the USEconomy can be found in the June Hat Trick Letter report. The next round might be renamed Global QE. Watch the Japanese Yen, whose exchange rate is back over 125 in a sudden upward thrust, fully forecasted by the Jackass in April. They are selling USTBond assets to raise cash for reconstruction and to cover trade deficits. If another G-7 Meeting is hastily convened, they will coordinate USTBond purchases again. Call it Global QE, a far more powerful Quantitative Easing initiative with greater commodity price impact on a global scale. Inflation is all the US banking leadership knows. Left with poor or limited policy options, they will inflate more. Struggling with national insolvency, they will inflate more. Unable to load on vast stimulus packages, they will simply rely upon basic run-of-the-mill inflation. The USFed Chairman should be called the Secretary of Inflation, in a perfect world. Inflation is all they know. They will inflate until the USEconomy is a burned crisp and the US banking system is a charred ruin. The USDollar is halfway complete with a death spiral. GOLD & SILVER PRICES WILL RESPOND WITH A MOONSHOT. The FOREX market is not the domain of fools.

THE USDOLLAR DEATH SPIRAL

The big FX currency traders realize the USDollar is in a terminal decline. The big FX currency traders realize the USGovt and USFed are locked in a corner with no good policy alternatives. The rebound from May has ended. It relieved the oversold condition, and not much else. Crude oil is back over $100 per barrel. Gold is back pecking away at the $1550 level. Silver is set to challenge the $40 level again. Nothing has changed except the illusion of a tighter USFed policy, which is slowly fading away in a reality backdrop. Recall their nonsense propaganda in early 2010, about an Exit Strategy from the 0% corner. Instead, as the Jackass correctly forecasted, they went deeper with a QE card. Then amidst denials, another correct Jackass forecast, they went deeper with a QE2 card. They will go to a QE3 card next, since they are far more desperate with even more ruinous fundamentals than a year ago. It could go into a pre-emptive Global QE, thus relieving the USFed as the lone perpetrator, my forecast. The USDollar knows it. The investor community is awakening to it. The USEconomic statistics echo the QE sirens calling the corporate ships at sea to their deaths on the rocky shores. Gold & Silver will rise in the second half of the year. This time the Second Half Recovery will feature precious metals on an absolute tear!!

read full article at source : http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article28574.html

 

Reggie on the ECB’s Continued Solvency After Sovereign Debt Buying Binge, Guess What!

By Reggie Middleton

There has been a lot of noise in both the alternative and the mainstream financial press regarding potential risk to the ECB regarding its exposure at roughly 48 to 72 cents on the dollar to sovereign debt purchases through leverage, and at par at that. This concern is quite well founded, if not just over a year or so too late. In January, I penned The ECB Loads Up On Increasingly Devalued Portuguese Bonds, Ensuring That They Will Get Hit Hard When Portugal Defaults. The title is self explanatory, but expound I shall. Before we get to the big boy media’s “year too late” take, let’s do a deep dive into how thoroughly we at BoomBustBlog foretold and warned of the insolvency of both European private banks and central banks, including the big Kahuna itself, the ECB! The kicker is that this risk was quite apparent well over a year ago. On April 27th, 2010 I penned the piece “How Greece Killed Its Own Banks!“. It went a little something like this:

Yes, you read that correctly! Greece killed its own banks. You see, many knew as far back as January (if not last year) that Greece would have a singificant problem floating its debt. As a safeguard, they had their banks purchase a large amount of their debt offerings which gave the perception of much stronger demand than what I believe was actually in the market. So, what happens when these relatively small banks gobble up all of this debt that is summarily downgraded 15 ways from Idaho.

Well, the answer is…. Insolvency! The gorging on quickly to be devalued debt was the absolutely last thing the Greek banks needed as they were suffering from a classic run on the bank due to deposits being pulled out at a record pace. So assuming the aforementioned drain on liquidity from a bank run (mitigated in part or in full by support from the ECB), imagine what happens when a very significant portion of your bond portfolio performs as follows (please note that these numbers were drawn before the bond market route of the 27th)…

The same hypothetical leveraged positions expressed as a percentage gain or loss…

Relevant subscription material for BoomBustBlog paying members:

  1. Greece Public Finances Projections
  2. Banks exposed to Central and Eastern Europe
  3. Greek Banking Fundamental Tear Sheet

Online Spreadsheets (professional and institutional subscribers only)

       Greek Default Restructuring Scenario Analysis

       Greek Default Restructuring Scenario Analysis with Sustainable Debt/GDP Limits and Haircuts

Several months later I posted several follow-up pieces along the same vein:

To Cut or Not to Cut, The Irish Threaten To Play Rough With Those Clippers: Threats of Haircuts Rattle the ECB! Thursday, March 31st, 2011

       A Comparison of Our Greek Bond Restructuring Analysis to that of Argentina Wednesday, May 26th, 2010

For our professional and institutional subscribers, the Ireland Default Restructuring Scenario Analysis with Sustainable Debt/GDP Limits and Haircuts are available online. All subscribers have access to the  Irish Bank Strategy Note which adequately warned before Irish banks dropped 85% in value. The  Ireland public finances projectionsis also available to all paying members.

To continue reading the full article and much more please follow link to source:

 http://boombustblog.com/reggie-middleton/2011/06/09/over-a-year-after-being-dismissed-as-sensationalist-for-questioning-the-ecbs-continued-solvency-after-sovereign-debt-buying-binge-guess-what/

Comment:

The Irish government spends millions every year on financial advisers I suggest they instead pay Reggie to advise then better still Reggie should be Finance Minster. I have been following his observations and conclusions for three years now and I only wish I had heard of him earlier. There is no substitute for the real facts and the truth!

Thank God there are people like this man around; otherwise the small investors would be history. Great article Reggie and Thank you .

GreekWatch (Day 2 of 13) : “the situation seems desperate”

The IMF and EU teams seem to be working away quietly on their review mission in Athenswhilst the discussions about new austerity measures and privatisations get louder. There were rumours yesterday evening that the Greek prime minister was considering a referendum on new austerity measures though that seems to have been dismissed today with the claim that he is only seeking “consensus” – remember the prime minister controls 160 of the parliament’s 300 seats so “consensus” is a PR exercise, but it is one advocated by the IMF and EU. There were small-ish (by Greek standards) demonstrations on the streets yesterday evening when some 20,000 protesters across a number of cities staged peaceful protests.

Full article at source http://wp.me/pNlCf-1rh.

Comment:

This morning I nearly fell out of my bed when I heard Ivan Yates and Willy Slattery Head of Ireland State Street in the IFSC take opposite sides to the problems of Irelands Debts .Judging from Mr.Slattery utterances and his categorical support for Mr. Edna Kenny’s declaration that there will be no default speaks volumes. This confirms to me that the Bondholders have indeed their feet under the cabinet table .By voting out the Last government we have unwittingly placed the spokespersons and lobbyists for the Funds industries and bond holders at the centre of power in Ireland .Just listen to this banisters blatant defence of his own interests and that of the international hot money industry in the IFSC. His claim that we now have good transparency in the Finances of the country is laughable and an outright lie. There is estimated 1.75 trillion Euros in managed funds in the IFSC and I would like to know what percentage is been paid in taxes for the secure harbour the Irish government is giving these dubious funds .after all let’s say the government gets .5% that would equate to an instant 8 750 000 000 Billion .in taxes for the hard pressed Irish Government.
Now why did Mr.Slattery not suggest his industry pay this tax??? No he wants the low paid workers and the unemployed to cough up and keep him and his cronies in business in the IFSC.As for Mr. Yates at least he understands that we simply cannot pay these debts as we simply do not have the earnings capacity .
Listen hear to the Breakfast show

http://media.newstalk.ie/podcast/24322/

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