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Posts tagged ‘Equities’

Stock Market S&P Bear Calls Have ALL Missed

Salivating Bears have been calling for a market top for over 4 years, now, and none have been right. The sentiment is understood but misplaced. This goes to show how markets are not predictable, but people are. So many want to exercise the FILO inventory premise: First In Last Out. It is so difficult to check egos at the door for there is a huge difference in being right and being profitable.

Those who choose to be right often find themselves on the loosing end. Those who choose to be profitable always have a game plan. Game plans rarely pick tops or bottoms, the most unprofitable areas for trading. The best source for market information comes from the market itself, and from what we can see, there has been no indication that a top has formed. It is possible the market is getting there, but getting there and being there are not the same. Always to stick to a proven game plan.

The message of the market is best viewed from the charts, and we are using the E-Mini.

An associate of ours has observed that market rallies tend to last 15-20 weeks, and the current rally is in week 20. A correction, of some sort, is now due, this week, next week, it cannot be known until it happens, but the Time factor is ever-present.

Last week was an OKR, [Outside Key Reversal], defined by a higher high and lower low from the preceding week, and in this one, a lower close, [the close can higher, lower or unchanged]. The word “Reversal” provides a clue as to near term expectations. Not ours, necessarily, but as in the acronym, OKR.

The one factor outweighing the rest is the trend, and the trend for stocks is up. Trends tend to persist, and it takes time to turn one around. Time equates to patience, and it is patience that is the undoing of a great many traders. There have been so many calling for a top, as we have observed from comments and expectations over the last 4 years.

In an up trend, demand is already a proven factor. It is supply, or sellers who bear the burden of proof for making a change, and that has not yet happened. The groundwork already exists for a correction, but it is impossible to know, in advance, if it will be a normal correction, and lately, they have been 9-10 days in duration, or if it will signal the potential of a topping formation.

Identifying the trend as up does not mean one should not be cautious or unprepared for a market turn, but the caution would be in the form of taking profits and/or using close stops. It does not mean going short. Even the 2008 market top took a few months to develop…………………

full article at source : http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article39842.html

Dow Stock Market New All Time High, Exponential Inflation and Multiple Technological Revolutions

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The stock market has continued to confound the academic proponents of the the debt deflation mantra who have in perfect perma bear style been banging their heads continuously against a four year stealth bull market that has marched all the way to an new NEW All Time Closing High of DJIA 14,253.77

Many academic economists and journalists who think they are economists and salesmen will be commentating at length over the next few days by looking in their rear view mirrors to explain why the stock market has risen, despite the fact that these same people can be quickly googled be found to have repeatedly claimed over many times that the rally in the stock market was unsustainable and would imminently end.

Virtually all of the reasons put forward will be wrong as especially academic economists will find themselves floundering all over the place to explain why the stock market can trade at new all time highs whilst their economic statistics say that a triple dip recession suggests the exact opposite should be true, because the actual key drivers of the unfolding stealth bull stocks market as covered in depth in the recent Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond ebook (FREE DOWNLOAD), are that general stock market indices as the Dow are geared towards oscillating around an exponential inflation mega-trend towards which stocks are leveraged, which is why they will ALWAYS converge towards and BREAK to New All Time Highs, including that the Dow level of 14,200 was the forecast conclusion of 2 years ago in the preceding Stocks Stealth Bull Market ebook of March 2011……………………….

full article at source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article39342.html

Market Forging Higher, Not Yet Warning of a Top

By Sam Collins

One of the remarkable technical events of the past 12 months is the breakout and blast-off of the Dow Jones Transportation Average. On Tuesday, the index set a new all-time high after breaking from a 10-month consolidation in early December.

RSI is somewhat overbought, and Tuesday’s spike to new highs could lead to some profit-taking. But the momentum of this remarkable performance is usually predictive of a better-performing economy, and thus, a pullback in this or any index should be viewed as a buying opportunity.

Conclusion: Despite the lack of volume, stocks appear headed to new highs, boosted by better-than-expected retail sales and the anticipation of a better economic climate. Even the breakdown of the most influential technology stock of the decade (Apple), the fiscal cliff, and the threat of a U.S. bond default have failed to stop the advance………….

full article at source: http://investorplace.com/2013/01/daily-stock-market-news-market-forging-higher-not-yet-warning-of-a-top/?sid=KE8137&cp=OZDT&ct=201301116&cc=eletter&en=4524897

Market Top??? All aboard for the ride down !

Thomás Ó Cléirigh

According to this commentary (Link below)we should expect a big drop in the market soon this is just an opinion but if this will come to pass we can expect to see all of the financial institutions (Banks) hit a wall and collapse back down to their lows. So I would now start to hedge my bets to the downside.

As a trader of BAC I have a long position but I have also a covered call in place but I am now looking for a good entry to place a put position .By the sounds of it I need to move now to get covered. The chart seems to confirm the resistance of $8.50 and I note the stock is struggling. A good entry would be 8.25- 8-35 All aboard for the ride !!

Can the Fed Fool Investors Again?.

Surprise! Spain Makes The Same Ass-Backwards Mistake That The US and UK Made – Banning Shortselling

By ReggieMiddleton

Spain has crossed the rubicon, and entered into bad decision nirvana as it too decided to ban short selling, which has worked so well for all of those other smart countries which have done so. For instance, when the US did it in 2008, they helped their bank’s shares float to the tune of -48%! Hey, with friends like that, who needs enemies. When will they learn that tempering/tampering with financial markets is not ever as good as it sounds. Keep in mind that short sales put a natural floor under weak securities by creating natural sellers at the end or a trade (whether the trade is successful or not). If the stock is truly overvalued (hear’s to you European banks), then the shares are going to drop anyway as the holders of those shares sell to get out of them. Without shorts, there will be no buying on the way down as speculators and astute investors cover profitable short sales and the only bids you will get are at rock bottom where fundamental guys feel there “deals that can’t be refused” (except for the occasional BTFD fools along the way). That is usually a bid that’s much higher than would have been achieved through the short sale. Of course, nobody explained this to the Spanish

full article at source: http://boombustblog.com/blog/item/6126-surprise-spain-makes-the-same-ass-backwards-mistake-that-the-us-and-uk-made-banning-shortselling

Stocks Bear Market Primary B Wave Rally Continues

Here is a current stock market analyzes by Tony_Caldaro . I wouldn’t necessary agree with everything he says but in any case it is a good general analyzes in my humble opinion .I am averageing  in on the short side having earlier stocked up on the primary asset ( Stock I trade) once in place, I don’t really care which way the market goes as I should be able to take off some profits in trading the options! current position up 17.5% in the year on invested funds.I supose the message is be hedged at all times !

Good Trading  Machholz

Another impressive week for the bulls: SPX/DOW +5.45%. After the recent low at SPX 1075, a week ago Tuesday, the market has had quite a strong rally over the past nine trading days. A general agreement to recapitalize European banks, when needed, has ignited an uptrend in their equity markets. All five European indices we track are in
confirmed uptrends. Generally, equity markets, worldwide, have followed with
rallies of their own. The US market has rallied 14.0% over this period with the
tech stocks, (the NDX), displaying the greatest strength. During this rally,
some investors et al, have turned bullish and others cautiously bullish. We are
not in either of those camps long term, only medium term during this uptrend.

We noted last week, the most obvious count was five waves down into the SPX 1075 low to complete a Primary wave a decline. Primary wave B would now likely retrace 50.0% to 61.8%, (1223-1258), of the entire decline from SPX 1371 to 1075. And, the rally would
offer another opportunity to hedge one’s portfolio. We expected this uptrend
would be choppy and last one to two months. What has occurred, instead, is a
spike up rally, with three 20+ point pullbacks along the way, reaching the
50.0% retracement level in a matter of only nine trading days. This type of
market activity is a bit odd for a typical bear market rally. However, B wave
rallies during bear markets can sometimes look like new bull markets. We have
seen these types of spike up rallies before.

full article at source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article31000.html

Bear Market Remains Probable

By: Tony_Caldaro

The week started off with a meltdown in Europe. They lost 4.35% on monday
while the US markets were closed. When the US market opened on tuesday, it
gapped down losing about 3%, made the low for the week, rallied nearly 6% from
that low, then ended the week with another meltdown in Europe (-3.20%) closing
about 1% above the low for the week. Economic reports for the week were sparse
with positives edging out negatives four to threeOn the plus side: ISM
services, consumer credit, the trade deficit and wholesale inventories all
improved. On the negative: weekly jobless claims rose, and both the monetary
base and the WLEI declined. For the week the SPX/DOW were -1.95%, and the
NDX/NAZ were -0.35%. Asian markets lost 2.4%, Europe was -3.9%, the Commodity
equity group slid 1.8%, and the DJ World index lost 3.3%. This week we have a
plethora of economic reports and it’s Options expiration week.

LONG TERM: bear market highly probable

We have been posting every day, for some time now, “bear market highly
probable”. What this means is that we suspect we are in a bear market, by the
wave patterns, but it has not yet been confirmed by OEW’s quantitative
analysis. The March 2009 to May/July 2011 bull market unfolded in five
quantified waves. This is quite clear. We have counted these waves as five
Primary waves, expecting this first bull market off the Mar09 Supercycle low to
be of a Cycle wave degree. Historically Cycle waves can last anywhere from one
(1973-1974) to thirty-three years (1974-2007). The shorter ones are typically
bear markets, and the longer ones bull markets.

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