Germany’s CESIfo published the latests (January 2013) assessment of the state of the German economy in Manufacturing and these are slightly more upbeat than at the end of Q4 2012, albeit with some clear seasonal supports.
“In manufacturing the business climate indicator continued to rise. Manufacturers are more satisfied with their current business situation than last month. The improvement in expectations with regard to future business developments continued into the New Year. Optimism is returning. After three successive declines, capacity utilisation rates also rose.”
As per data below, in manufacturing ‘optimism’ is not exactly ‘returning’, but rather ‘pessimism is receding’, as business expectations remain below 0 on balances:
Labour Day is done, the holidays are over, schools and colleges are back: game on. Expect one wild ride in the markets between now and the November US presidential election results.
Internally the technicals are weakening. There is a significant divergence between the Dow 20 Transports and the Dow 30 Industrials. The Dow 20 is moving towards lower lows and a break below 4850 will be an indication that the overall market is going to move much lower, fast.
UK Crash Expected:
With the London Olympics now more or less over the absence of sporting construction and service dollars is beginning to be felt throughout the British economy. The UK is already in recession, as is most of Euroland, but the figures going forward for UK GDP data are going to be far worse than expected. This will not augur well for City institutions which are already reeling from numerous financial scandals.
There is a fully fledge bank run ongoing in Spain that is not being adequately reported in the mainstream news media. In June $70 billion dollars left their system. In July it was $92 billion which is 4.7% of total banking deposits. This means that from January to July of this year $368 billion or 17.7% of total banking deposits has fled Spanish institutions. Previously this money was heading for Switzerland and Germany but with the truth filtering out concerning the weakness of German and Swiss banks alternative destinations are now being chosen. The emerging weakness of Deutsche Bank is a particular worry for the ECB and the situation is being exacerbated by a sharply contracting German economy. As reported in Spiegel today:
“Euro Crisis Starts to Bite. German Export Orders Fell Sharply in August.
Exports are a major pillar of the German economy, but now the sector is starting to feel the impact of the euro crisis and the global economic slowdown. German export orders fell in August by the highest rate in more than three years, the Markit financial information company announced Monday after conducting a survey of 500 industrial firms.
“Survey respondents commented on a general slowdown in global demand and particular weakness in new business inflows from Southern Europe,” the institute said. The firms hardest hit by declines are manufacturers of machinery and other investment goods as well as producers of intermediate goods such as chemicals.
In the first half of 2012, German exports had still grown thanks to demand from Japan, the United States and Russia. But it was already evident then that exports to crisis-hit countries were falling sharply, and that trend is now continuing.
Markit economist Tim Moore said the German industrial sector is going through its worst quarter — the three months to the end of September — in more than three years.
“The new orders figures are especially disappointing, with export work dropping at the fastest pace since April 2009 amid an ongoing deterioration in global demand,” he said in a statement.”
Mini Flash Crashes:
I have noted over the past few months that the “flash crash” syndrome, which nearly collapsed the market on May 6th. 2010, has not been sorted out by the powers that be. This ongoing problem has major implications and the fact that regulators have not fully solved this manipulation is very very serious. I list below two charts for your consideration. I fervently request my American colleagues to write to their elected representatives to implore them to use their influence to finally end this travesty. Its ongoing presence is undermining the integrity and future of the US stock market.
Example 1. Monster Beverage Company (MNST) 30th. April 2012.
Note: price moved from $65 to $83.96 and quickly back again, a total change of 18.9%.
Example 2. Dollar Tree Stores Inc. (DLTR). 16th. August 2012
Note: price moved from $38.40 to $49.11 and quickly back again, a total change of 27
IF you want to know where the classic 1980s power ballads (the theme from ‘Dirty Dancing’, Laura Branigan’s ‘Self Control’, Heaven 17 numbers and assorted gems from the New Romantic era) ended up, look no further than German radio. While I was driving through the northern bit of the Rhine yesterday, the car radio offered up an eclectic mix, ranging from the reasonably nostalgic to the God-awful, in a display of Catholic music tastes befitting a journey that concluded just outside Cologne cathedral, Europe’s biggest.
The other noticeable thing about driving in Germany on a weekday is the sheer amount of commerce on the roads. The inside lane of the autobahn is an uninterrupted convoy of trucks shipping Germany’s exports all over the continent.
If you want to feel the German economy, the best way is to sense the shudder of the thousands of trucks on the A3 autobahn, which bisects Germany top to bottom
I moved over to the Town of Lubeck in Northern Germany last November and I have been coming back to Ireland about every 8 weeks. The cost of accommodation is the first thing that hits you a one bedroom apartment in my town set’s me back 300 Euros in the best part of town for the month .My grocery bill is about one third of the cost in Ireland . Most striking of all is the people I have to deal with in the local council are in fact highly professional and highly qualified to be in their position and are totally answerable for their actions. You get immediate answers and immediate costing that stays the same when you are paying your bill. There is no messing around going from Billy to Jack to Jill and then her aunty down the hall and then once all around the building again just for good measure in case you misses somebody . They have a vested interest in getting you started in your business a can do altitude is everywhere within the German local civil service.
Having said that I can confirm I have noticed a few small shops going out of business and there does seem to be a growing number of shops going out of business just off the main pedestrian streets . German’s are not going out to local cafe during the week much as they used to according to a friend of mine who has a cafe in town!
Downside is there is no minimum wage and you could end up working for around 3 euro (so you might end up working two to three jobs) per hour you not likely to build up any service years as most people have to move around from job to job there are no lifelong jobs but that can also be a positive.
The cynical attempt from John Gormely to clinch to power along with his other economic terrorists in this Government is to be avoided like the plague.
These merchants of financial devastation are so addicted to power that they now know that the game is up and with the help on the only true independent news media (The internet) we the people now know the extent of the lies these economic terrorists have been telling us all along!
They have dogmatically stuck to their policy of slash and burn and stuff billions into bankrupt banks and bailed out their Galway tent developer pals.
With the establishment of NAMA they have created a new windfall for the financial gangsters that were involved in the financial destruction of our country in the first place .Over the last 18 months these vested interests have taken a majority stake in the Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) (for approx 34 million each) all this was set up by Brian Lenihan.
By pulling this stroke (typical Fianna Fail) Lenihan handed back control of the Assets of NAMA to the very people these assets were taken from in the first place, at a huge cost to the taxpayers.
In other words we the taxpayers have now been saddled with all of this private Toxic debt and the banks stand to gain the majority of any profit.
Here is what Vincent Browne had to say about this SPV
This SPV, not NAMA, is now going to take over all the bad loans and their accompanying asset from the banks and the SPV will dispose of the assets in time and recover as much of the loans as it can. Precisely what we were told NAMA was going to do. And the big difference is that while NAMA was entirely a State agency, this SPV will have a majority of private owners. Private investors will have 51 per cent of the equity of this SPV and the State, via the hapless NAMA, will have just 49 per cent. The 51 per cent owners will call the shots, decide what is to be done with the assets for which we, Irish citizens, are paying €54 billion for
Make no mistake we the people are best served by an immediate general election and let all the political parties put before the people exactly what it is they are proposing, to solve our problems
But my personal humble opinion is that I do not want any of the current Dail members brought back to the Dail
They as a group have failed miserably both in Government and in opposition and none of them deserve to be rewarded by been brought back into the longest winning lottery ticket in history for each one of them!
We the people are been subjected to a new campaign of spin ,by the current toxic financial terrorists in government whose sole objective is to cling to power, their Merk’s , perks and pensions are at stake .
They are engaged in economic terrorism by selling us out to vulture investors,and they have betrayed their sworn duty to protect and uphold the Irish constitution by doing so.
The current political system is at cause and needs to be totally overhauled and modernised.
The current crop of TD’s have everything to lose and so have a vested interest in keeping all of their
“Accumulated entitlements “by not making any changes to the system .
Make no mistake I agree with Davis Mc Williams latest assumption the country’s elite are selling us all out.
Here is what David Mc Williams hast to say about this topic in his latest article.
The last time I checked there was a harp on the front of my passport, not a picture of Michael Fingleton
The other day I met a German radio presenter from ARD, the German public radio station. I’ve known her for quite a while — since a brief spell working on the German economy in the 1990s for an investment bank. She, like many other foreign correspondents, has been sent to Ireland to see what is going on here.
After a while, I wondered why she hadn’t asked me anything about the Government, or the prospect of an election or what new political constellation might emerge here. She joked and in an exaggerated German accent laughed: “David, it doesn’t matter who your next prime minister is, he will have no power — we own you now, and he will do what we tell him.”full article here http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2010/10/06/elite-is-preparing-to-sell-country-down-the-river
We the ordinary citizens must now take it upon ourselves to bring about this necessary change.
We do not have the luxury of allowing the political elite to continue to dictate to us how and when we get to have a say in the running of our country (withholding local elections).We need ordinary people in the Dail and not smart ass career politicians who don’t know which side of the car their petrol cap in on! Politicians who tell us our bills are going down when in fact they are going up, politicians who expect us to put up with a third world health service, see our children die of infections easily fought off with the necessary investment in plant and people, while they themselves enjoy the full benefits of private health and masive pensions, politicians who send their own kids to private schools while they expect us to pay through the nose for a second class rated educational system that is constantly been robbed of essential investment .It is time for that change and the time is now!
To Mr.Gormely and the rest of your cohorts in government we want a general election and not some new con job to keep you in power!