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Posts tagged ‘Economic growth’

Forecast indicates Icelandic economic growth

 

The latest statistics from Iceland’s data analysts indicate the national economy should experience healthy growth over the next five years. Figures released late last week by official bellwether Statistics Iceland show the economy will have grown by two per cent this year.

For the same period through to the New Year, the figures show an expansion of 1.6 per cent in private consumption. This will be evened out by a contraction of 3.1 per cent in investment.

Statistics Iceland’s forecasts for 2014 show the upward trend is set to continue with the economy witnessing growth of  2.5 per cent. The bureau’s winter report shows investment growth of a whopping 10.6 per cent for the coming year while private consumption will expand by 2.5 per cent.

Looking at archival statistics the bureau said relatively strong economic growth in the first months of last year tapered off towards the end of the period. More jobs this year has provided the Icelandic workforce with additional disposable income, yet this has not spurred people to spend and private consumption is only on a gradual upward arc.

Wage discussions are currently in progress in some industries. The bureau says this may impact on the projected inflation figure of 3.8 per cent for 2013. This figure is marginally higher than predicted in the last forecast issued on 28 June.

Statistics Iceland is an independent body which collects and analyses report data on the economy as well as in areas such as social trends. The agency is due to publish its next economic forecast next April.

Comment:

By Thomás Aengus O Cléirigh

IMG_1965

We in Ireland are now financial debt slaves, sold out by our own collaborators and Berlin puppets! This is what we should have done in Ireland instead of rewarding the gangsters who brought down our economy, who stole our national wealth who helped enslave our people and who bailed out private corrupt banks, we should have jailed them ,told ECB to get stuffed and dumped the euro .

Oh Yeah ,and shot every member of the last government as a warning to any other gombeens who might have the idea we the people are gullible and can be pawned off with platitudes as they cow down to their real masters in Berlin!

Irish Economy 2013: Central Bank expects weak growth this year

By Finfacts Team
The Central Bank said today that its expects weak growth this year with a
continuation of the gradual recovery in the overall level of economic activity,
though at a slightly slower pace than previously expected

In its Q4 2013 bulletin [pdf],
the Bank says its latest forecasts for GDP (gross domestic product) growth for
2013 and 2014 are marginally lower than those published in the last bulletin.
GDP growth of 0.5% is now projected for this year, with growth of 2.0% forecast
for 2014, representing a downward revision of 0.2 and 0.1%, respectively, to the
previous forecasts for 2013 and 2014. The forecast for GNP (gross national
product), mainly excluding the profits of the multinational sectors has also
been revised down in a similar fashion and is now projected to grow by 0.1% this
year, and by 1.2% next year.

full article at source: http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1026631.shtml

What the Economic Crisis Really Means – and what we can do about it

We were told that the global financial crisis of 2008 happened because irresponsible borrowers couldn’t afford to pay back their loans. This is true, but it was also part of a much deeper problem. The issue is that our economic system is based on the need for continuous, perpetual growth. It’s highly likely that we’re already in the beginnings of something much worse than a depression, even if bankers and governments won’t admit it yet. Fortunately, we don’t need to hear it from them. We can tell that something is going on, we have the internet and we can share information amongst ourselves. And thankfully, if we try hard enough, we could just end up with something much much better than what we have now. I’m no expert, however I am someone who’s done several years of reading on these topics and I really want everyone else to know what’s going on, and understand the risks and the opportunities. It’s only fair.

So let’s look at how our banking system really works. It’s commonly believed that banks lend out money that they already have from invested savings. That would’ve encouraged a fairly stable system of banking. Instead, we have what’s called a fractional reserve banking system. This means that banks can loan out almost all the money that gets deposited with them. For example, when you put $100 in one bank, they lend $90 of it to someone else, who then puts that $90 in their bank. Now there’s $190 where there used to be $100. That $90 lent out will also be deposited and $81 lent again. In this way, money ends up being multiplied between ten and a hundred times. Sounds crazy right? Less than 1% of the money in the economy is actual notes and coins, the rest are just numbers on computers, created as debt. This system rapidly increases the amount of money in the economy, which fuels economic growth, allowing most of us the ability to pay back our debts with interest. But only so long as the economy keeps on growing…………………..

full article at source: http://www.doingitourselves.org/

Europe Continues To Drink The ECB’s Poisoned Kool-Aid

Despite the drumbeat of defeatism  from English-speaking economists, and despite three years of disappointing  economic results, the Eurozone persists in the execution of its original “Plan  A”, adopted three years ago: 1. Balance eurozone government budgets by  raising taxes and reducing expenditure. 2. Improve external competitiveness  with internal deflation and market reforms. 3. Stabilize debt ratios through  fiscal consolidation and the (eventual) resumption of economic growth. 4.  Prevent speculative attacks and restore market access with credible long-term  policies, backstopped by the ECB and the ESM. 5. Remove “exit risk” by the  ECB’s pledge to buy government bonds in the event of stress.

Now is an opportune moment to assess  where “Plan A” stands with respect to probability of ultimate success. At  present, all of the troubled countries (except Cyprus) are either in compliance  with Troika agreements, or are otherwise implementing (or pretending to  implement) fiscal consolidation and structural reform.

The bond market’s reaction to  progress to date has been positive, with yields declining and limited issuance  resuming for a number of peripheral countries. The ESM has not had to make new  loans (besides Greece), and the ECB has not had to intervene in the bond market.  In the hierarchy of world crises, Europe appears to be moving to the  back-burner, outside the spotlight of daily headlines and TV news bulletins

Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/blog/europe-continues-to-drink-the-ecb-s-poisoned-kool-aid-by-christopher-t–mahoney#BYWfpba6vi8WRG1j.99

Debt Black Hole Event Horizon, Economic Singularity, The Minsky Moment

Wipe our Debt

Wipe our Debt (Photo credit: Images_of_Money)

By John_Mauldin

“Concern about politics and the processes of international   co-operation is warranted but the best one can hope for from politics in   any country is that it will drive rational responses to serious   problems. If there is no consensus on the causes or solutions to serious   problems, it is unreasonable to ask a political system to implement   forceful actions in a sustained way. Unfortunately, this is to an   important extent the case with respect to current economic difficulties,   especially in the industrial world.

While there is agreement on the need for more growth and job   creation in the short run and on containing the accumulation of debt in   the long run, there are deep differences of opinion both within and   across countries as to how this can be accomplished.What might be   labelled the ‘orthodox view’ attributes much of our current difficulty   to excess borrowing by the public and private sectors, emphasises the   need to contain debt, puts a premium on credibly austere fiscal and   monetary policies, and stresses the need for long-term structural   measures rather than short-term demand-oriented steps to promote growth.”The alternative ‘demand support view’ also recognises the need to   contain debt accumulation and avoid high inflation, but it pushes for   steps to increase demand in the short run as a means of jump-starting   economic growth and setting off a virtuous circle in which income   growth, job creation and financial strengthening are mutually   reinforcing. International economic dialogue has vacillated between   these two viewpoints in recent years.”There is indeed considerable disagreement throughout the world on   what policies to pursue in the face of rising deficits and economies   that are barely growing or at stall speed. Both sides look at the same   set of realities and yet draw drastically different conclusions. Both   sides marshal arguments based on rigorous mathematical models “proving”   the correctness of their favorite solution, and both sides can point to   counterfactuals that show the other side to be insincere or just plain   wrong.

Spain and Greece are both examples of what happens when there is   too much debt and austerity is applied to deal with the problem. One   side argues that the cure for too much debt is yet more debt, while the   other side seemingly argues that the cure for a lack of growth is to   shrink the economy. It is as if one side argues that the cure for a   night of drunken revelry is a fifth of whiskey while the other side   prescribes a very-low-calorie diet of fiber and veggies…………………………..

full article at source:  http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article37031.html

Russian CB raises rates

by

Bank of Russia hiked key refinancing rate to 8.25 by 25bps on the foot of rising inflation pressures, with current rate back at the levels seen last in November 2011. The bank also hiked overnight repo rate to 5.5% and deposit rate to 4.25%.

Inflation in agricultural commodities is the core driver as Russia raised some food tariffs and as weaker crops bit into domestic supply. Imports demand for agricultural goods and relative pressure on the ruble vis USD are additional factors.

The signal from the BR is relatively clear: although Russian economic growth has been under some pressure in H1 2012, inflation is back on the…………………………

full article at source:http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/

Euro zone lacks engine for growth

By Dr.Constantin Gurdgiev

In my previous postings here, I have suggested that by mid-year, Greece will be back in the market’s crosshairs. Now, time to look beyond that which consumes the media space once again.

The latest data on first-quarter GDP growth shows that the euro area economy has now trifurcated into a slow-growth core (Germany and Finland, plus Estonia and Slovakia), a Titanic-like periphery (Italy, Spain, Greece, Cyprus, Portugal and the Netherlands) and a no-growth pool containing all the other member states. The only uncertainties remaining at this stage are the smaller countries yet to report their figures for the quarter: Ireland (in an official recession since the fourth quarter of 2011); Luxembourg (which was still expanding at the end of 2011), Malta (which registered quarter-over-quarter contraction in the last three months of 2011); and Slovenia (which had a third consecutive quarterly contraction in GDP

full article at source: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/international-news/global-exchange/international-experts/euro-zone-lacks-engine-for-growth/article2433566/

Britain Slows in Slump

 By the Daily Bell

Growth fears as UK manufacturing slows sharply … Export orders for Britain’s manufacturers have collapsed at their fastest rate in almost three years, a key survey has found, raising fresh fears about the state of the economy. Manufacturing output expanded for the fifth consecutive month in April, but at the weakest pace since December. Poor export orders pulled activity in the UK’s key manufacturing industry down to its slowest rate of growth in four months in April, according to the closely- watched purchasing managers’ index (PMI), as companies reported fewer orders across the board – from Europe, the US and Asia. Foreign demand for British goods has now deteriorated for two of the past three months as export orders dropped at their fastest pace since May 2009. The sharp decline in exports caused total new order books to shrink for the first time in five months. – UK Telegraph

full article at source:http://www.thedailybell.com/3847/Britain-Slows-in-Slump

Sunday Times 1/4/2012 – Deep Reforms, not Exports-led Recovery, are needed

After four years of the crisis, there are four empirical regularities to be learned from Ireland’s economic performance. The first one is that the idea of internal devaluation, aka prices and wages deflation, as the only mechanism to attain debt deleveraging, is not working. The second is that the conventional hypothesis of a V-shaped recovery from the structural crisis, manifested in economic growth collapse, debt overhang and assets bust, is a false one. The third fact is that Troika confidence in our ability to meet ‘targets’ has little to do with the real economic performance. And the fourth is that exports-led recovery is a pipe dream for an economy in which exports growth is driven by FDI.
 
Restoring growth requires structural change that can facilitate private companies and entrepreneurs search for new catalysts for investment and consumption, jobs creation and exports.
 
For anyone with any capacity to comprehend economic reality, Quarterly National Accounts (QNA) results for Q4 2011, showing the second consecutive quarterly contraction in GDP and GNP, should have come as no surprise. In these very pages, months ago I stated that all real indicators – Purchasing Managers indices, retail sales, consumer and producer prices, property prices, industrial turnover figures, banking sector activity, and even our external trade statistics – point South. Yet, the Government continues to believe in Troika reports and statistical aberrations produced by superficial policy and methodological changes.
 full article at source:

THE CENTRAL Bank has sharply lowered its economic growth forecast for 2012

By STEPHEN COLLINS, Political Editor Irish Times

THE CENTRAL Bank has sharply lowered its economic growth forecast for 2012, citing slowing export growth and weak consumer spending. However the Bank says its lower growth forecast should not affect the Government’s budgetary arithmetic for the year.

Despite the renewed weakening of the economy since the middle of last year, tax revenues for January met budgetary targets, according to figures released yesterday by the Department of Finance.

Taoiseach Enda Kenny refused to accept the Government’s more optimistic budget forecasts were out of line with the Central Bank and said the real priority was creating jobs.

Full article at source: http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2012/0203/1224311178039.html#.TyuSp2Bs5sk.blogger

Comment:

There are no surprises here for followers of this blog as I have repeatedly stated that the central banks economic forecasts along with the government’s forecasts were the stuff of fantasy .How can you take out of the economy 3.5 billion each year for the last 4 years and expect the economy to grow? The latest governments attempt to convince the people of Ireland that signing up to this new EU treaty which will legally oblige the government to continue to take out of the Irish economy  (at best )up to 4 –possible 6 Billion( If no growth in the economy) Euros every year for the next ten years is just plain madness! We are currently running a deficit of -120 Billion and this new treaty obliges us to bring this down to -60 Billion. Things are bad now what do you think the country is going to be like when we have to continue take out amount of money from the economy? Without a massive injection of billions into the re-training of the unemployed, education and infrastructure we are just going to squeeze every last drop of wealth out of anybody that has anything in this country!

Any Fool can see this country is condemned to another generation of depression .One hundred and fifty thousand people have left the country and with at least 1000 leaving every week, four hundred and fifty thousand on the dole and at least 145,000 on short term FAS job creation (training schemes) not to mention the 65,000 X self employed that are not even registered in these official numbers who do not get the time of day  from the social services we haven’t even begun to see the shit hit the fan yet! As usual we have politicians pontificate on matters they haven’t got a clue tells the rest of us we have no choice! These well healed gangsters spouting from the Dail chambers where they continue to prance around waffling as the ordinary folk drown in financial swamps created by their bosom buddies “German  Bankers”and their Irish agents in the Corrupt Irish Banks .

I am one of the emigrants who returned to Ireland for a few weeks and the first thing when you come off the plane in Dublin airport as you walk along what seems to be endless walkways in the new terminal ,was an enormous photograph of Jerry Adams along with what one must assume are celebrities of Irish society. Fifty feet further down the corridor you are met with an enormous poster from corporate Allied Irish Bank finance welcoming you to Ireland. (One of the Banks that have caused the financial meltdown of the country) Is this some joker’s idea of taking the piss??? Yes I thought I am back in Gombeen land!  I won’t be staying any longer that I have too! If I was not depressed before I am now !and I am only five minutes in the country What it must be like for the countless ordinary people who have no choice but to stay and get fleeced by the incompetent politicians  who have sold them out to the leaches in Europe. As I get the bus to town I noticed the price of petrol and I am shell shocked at the prices. How in God’s name can anyone get to work or afford to live outside the city what about the countless thousands who live in the so called satellite towns commuting to Dublin every day why are they not out on the streets demonstrating against the price of petrol?????

Oil has come down from 146 $ a barrel to 97 $ a barrel. When it was 149$ a barrel we were paying 1.36 Euro per ltr   now the price per barrel is 97$ how come we are now paying 1.58 Euro per Ltr  so why are we still paying way over the all time high prices ?Because we are all docile and putting up with been screwed .

Wake up Ireland and kick ass

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