Wealthbuilder Market Brief September

The Dow Industrials, Transports and the S&P are range bound with the NASDAQ in a bullish breakout.

By  Christopher M. Quigley

The “Syrian Conflict pullback” is over and the market is back in bullish mode, particularly the NASDAQ which has just given a bullish breakout signal.

For the third time the 1480’ish level on the Dow Transports has held. With this support holding, the bull trend is back in business on the Industrials the Transports and the S&P. However, they are range bound.

Within this apparent overall strength however there is much technical weakness about when you start to drill down a bit into specific stocks, particularly consumer staples. This development is causing me to worry somewhat and indicates that all is not completely “rosy” in the economic fundamental garden.

For example of the 10 top holding in the bell-weather consumer staples ETF: XPL, 5 are trading at or below their 100 DMA (PG, PEP, CVS, CL and MO) and another 3 are trading at or below their 200 DMA (KO, PM and WMT). Apparently this technical weakness is due to bad guidance moving forward which is not a good omen for the health of the overall world economy. This may also explain why so many companies, in the broader market, are trading below recent highs. Thus caution is warranted.

Full PDF doc Here:  Wealthbuilder Market Brief September 10th

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New Dow High as Another Stocks Bear Market Goes Up in Smoke

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dow Jones surges to a new all time closing high of 15,460.92 as many market commentators literally never learn! And there is a reason for this.

Bull markets do one thing, and one thing only, they resolve to NEW bull market highs, as that is what ultimately defines what a bull market is, and so the market that I have traded for near 30 years, the DJIA stock index has once more resolved to a new bull market ALL Time High.

Meanwhile those that clearly have a psychological blind spot towards being on the right side of a trend, continuously repeat the same behaviour pattern of betting against the trend as evidenced by the fact that the deeper the recent correction progressed the more vocal they became in their utterances for an end of the bull market that they were never even able to recognise as a  bull market by virtue of what I deem to be ridiculous statements such as that of saying that the stock market bull run of 5 years had just been a cyclical event within a secular  BEAR market. Despite the fact that you will have heard the SAME garbage for over FIVE YEARs now!

To reiterate once more, there is no cyclical or secular ONLY BULL or BEAR, only LONG or SHORT, either that or as is more probably the case those that are most vocal commentators NEVER actually TRADE or INVEST with their OWN money! That is self evident in the fact that had they traded with their own money, then by now they would have gone bust several times over!

full article :http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article41365.html

Dow Stock Market New All Time High, Exponential Inflation and Multiple Technological Revolutions

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The stock market has continued to confound the academic proponents of the the debt deflation mantra who have in perfect perma bear style been banging their heads continuously against a four year stealth bull market that has marched all the way to an new NEW All Time Closing High of DJIA 14,253.77

Many academic economists and journalists who think they are economists and salesmen will be commentating at length over the next few days by looking in their rear view mirrors to explain why the stock market has risen, despite the fact that these same people can be quickly googled be found to have repeatedly claimed over many times that the rally in the stock market was unsustainable and would imminently end.

Virtually all of the reasons put forward will be wrong as especially academic economists will find themselves floundering all over the place to explain why the stock market can trade at new all time highs whilst their economic statistics say that a triple dip recession suggests the exact opposite should be true, because the actual key drivers of the unfolding stealth bull stocks market as covered in depth in the recent Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond ebook (FREE DOWNLOAD), are that general stock market indices as the Dow are geared towards oscillating around an exponential inflation mega-trend towards which stocks are leveraged, which is why they will ALWAYS converge towards and BREAK to New All Time Highs, including that the Dow level of 14,200 was the forecast conclusion of 2 years ago in the preceding Stocks Stealth Bull Market ebook of March 2011……………………….

full article at source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article39342.html

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Wealthbuilder Market Brief 1st March 2013 (Christopher Quigley)

By: Christopher Quigley

What a market. Even the most experienced traders  that I know are having a difficult time getting a handle on what is happening.  Wednesday’s market action caught a lot of folk napping. Monday’s 216 point drop in the Dow Industrials  convinced many that finally the much anticipated market “correction” had  arrived.

The slight “uptick” on Tuesday was a classic VIX buy  signal but it turned out to be a trap. Those traders who shorted the market on  the 26th were pulverized by the bullish 175 Dow point move on the 27th.

What can we make of such whiplash moves?

For me, regardless of the economy, the movement of  the market is understandable when you assess it through the paradigm of Dow  Theory. The market is powering forward because technically it is very strong.  This strength was first indicated by the 128 point breakout in the Dow  Transports on the second of January. Prior to this the Dow 20 had traded within  a trading line for nearly a year. It was perfectly clear to Dow Theory  aficionados that the momentum and the direction of any breakout from this “range  line” would be highly significant. The 307 point follow through move on the Dow  Industrials on the same day as the Trannies breakout confirmed the trend. With  Dow Theory  “ a trend once in place  continues until both indices confirm otherwise”. Nothing has happened in the  last few days to alter this January bull move. Thus the correct trading  strategy at the moment is to go long on pullbacks not short “potential” tops.

full report Wealthbuilder Market Brief 1st March 2013

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Current Position of the Market by Andre Gratian

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Very Long-term trend – The very-long-term cycles are down and, if   they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over) there will   be another steep and prolonged decline into late 2014. It is probable, however,   that the steep correction of 2007-2009 will have curtailed the full downward   pressure potential of the 120-yr cycle.

SPX: Intermediate trend – SPX has made a top at 1474. A mid-correction   rally is underway.

Last week’s newsletter discussed the probability of a mid-correction rally   starting from the 1335-1341 level, the possibility that a short-term low had   already been reached at 1343, and that a reversal had already started. The   forecast turned out to be correct, but the mid-correction rally is even stronger   than anticipated. I had an initial phase projection of 1403, but on Friday SPX   closed at 1409. Although Friday’s momentum could spill over into Monday, SPX is   giving indications of having completed this phase of the rally and is ready to   start a retracement. I have already mentioned that the reason for this pull-back   would be the cycles that are due to bottom at the end of the month and that   which are likely to produce a retracement of about 50% of the move from 1343.   This is reinforced by the fact that this would be a retracement down to the   level of the 4th wave of the 5-wave move which ostensibly just ended. For SPX,   this would take prices back down to about 1377.

A reason for the rally to end at Friday’s high is that it represents a 50%   retracement of the entire decline from SPX 1474. DJIA has retraced slightly less   than 50%, while NDX has only retraced slightly more than .382 which still makes   it the weakest of the three indices.

Following the near-term correction into the end of the month, a resumption of   the rally is likely with marginal new highs anticipated, perhaps extending to   .618 of the decline from 1474. That would bring SPX to about 1424. Upon   completion of this move, the intermediate decline could then continue into the   original forecast time slot of early 2013.

I have given a forecast of what could happen over the next few weeks based on   cycles and Fibonacci projections that seem logical. Let’s see how accurate this   scenario will turn out to be.

In last week’s newsletter, I also mentioned that AAPL had most likely reached   a near-term low in a climactic fashion. That also proved to be correct. By   Friday’s close, the stock had tacked on another 42 points…………………………….

full article at source:http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article37719.html

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• www.wealthbuilder.ie

Bad Prospects for Extension of Stock Market Rally

By Andre_Gratian

SPX: Very Long-term trend – The very-long-term cycles are down and, if   they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over) there will   be another steep and prolonged decline into late 2014. It is probable, however,   that the steep correction of 2007-2009 will have curtailed the full downward   pressure potential of the 120-yr cycle.

SPX: Intermediate trend – SPX has made a triple top, which is a   bearish pattern. It has now given a strong indication that an intermediate   correction is underwayAnalysis of the short-term trendis done on a daily basis with the   help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and   weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.Market Overview

After several days of resisting the downtrend, the indices finally started to   rally on October 26. The SPX tacked on 31 points from Wednesday’s 1403 low, but   met with heavy selling on the next day after nearing its top declining channel   line, and retraced .618 of its advance. The Dow and NDX suffered the same   fate.

I had warned that the SPX would reach a resistance level at the opening and   to expect at least a consolidation. However, what started as profit-taking   became more intense as the day progressed and, by the close, the index had lost   all of its previous day’s gain, and filling the gap which had been created on   Thursday. In the process it came to rest on the support level created by the   base which had formed prior to the rally. Now the question is whether this was   only a severe but normal correction of the uptrend which started at 1403, or if   the counter-trend rally is already over. With cycles expected to start making   their lows as early as next week, the uptrend does not have time on its   side.

There is also a matter of an unfilled P&Fcount to 1395 and Fib projection   to 1386. While (near-term) the election may play a role in the background   uncertainty and resulting volatility, we know that the odds favor a continued   decline of intermediate proportion into January 2013.

Because of its influence on the market (especially the NDX), AAPL has to be   considered a key — if not the most important — short-term indicator. On Friday   it made a new correction low, losing almost 20 points, and was definitely partly   responsible for the overall market weakness. There was relentless selling until,   by the close it had reached what could be an important Fibonacci projection.   That projection taken from the high of 705 has already proved its effectiveness   by producing several temporary holds on the way down: at 626, 613, at 591 – all   of them important Fib measurements………………………….

full article at source:  http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article37345.html

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Tech Stocks Signal Bearish Move for Stock Market

By: Steven_Vincent

Today’s intraday pop and drop reversal contributes to the growing picture of bearish tape action more consistent with a C wave decline. We are starting to see “good” news, such as recent announcements from the EU, either ignored or actually sold, whereas bad news is being hit hard, such as AMD’s profit warning. Alcoa announced an earnings beat and it intially popped and then got crushed for -3.3% on big volume

It’s also interesting that while the news media were reporting about the beat last night, there has not been a single mention of the selling onslaught today.

One of the major technical features underlining the bearish potential in this market is the dramatic underperformance of the darling sector, technology. Equal Weighted Tech (NDXE) is getting crushed and semiconductors and networking are leading the way down.

Here’s the major index relative performance chart since the April high, with NDXE in blue

read full article at source:  http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article35540.html

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