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Posts tagged ‘Daft.ie’

Average house price €210,000, says report


AN “ONGOING mismatch” between supply and demand in the housing market pushed asking prices down 3.1 per cent in the first three months of the year, according to the latest report by housing website Daft.ie.

According to Daft’s House Price Report, the average national asking price for property has fallen 43 per cent since the peak of the market and now stands at €210,000.

Another study published today by DKM Economic Consultants on behalf of MyHome.ie places the average national asking price at €260,000. It says prices are down 4.1 per cent on a quarterly basis, with the market enduring a drop of 37 per cent nationally since its peak, and 43 per cent in Dublin.

Both reports agree that it remains a buyer’s market.

The average time it took to sell a property in the first quarter of 2011 was nine months, the same as a year ago, according to Daft. The average time in Dublin was five months, down only slightly year-on-year.

The MyHome.ie Property Barometer said the average time it takes for a property to go sale agreed varied from three months in Dublin to 13 months in Connacht and Ulster.

“An ongoing mismatch between supply and demand is pushing prices further down,” said Ronan Lyons, economist at Daft.

“Prospective buyers find it difficult to get the finance, while owner-occupiers are often restricted by negative equity. As a result, the market is moving very slowly.”

Of the 3,000 properties posted for sale on Daft.ie at the start of 2010, one in three is still for sale 15 months later, Mr Lyons added. In Dublin, however, the figure is closer to one in six.

In an article accompanying the Daft report, Eoin Fahy, chief economist at Kleinwort Benson Investments, said a “first wave” of house price falls had resulted from bubble prices, unemployment and the tighter supply of credit.

A “new set of problems” may now be on the way, he said. “A second wave of factors may keep downward pressure on house prices.

“This will be mainly due to higher interest rates, but there is also an outside risk to house prices from repossessions and even from strategic default.”

In a strategic default, borrowers have such a negative view of the future “that even those that can pay, don’t pay, as they can’t see why they should pay their mortgages each month when so many others will not”, Mr Fahy writes.

While the Daft report finds quarterly price falls both across the State and in each region of Dublin, the MyHome report suggests that prices are rising in the south part of the city centre, with only modest declines in the west and south of the county.

“The moderating pace of price decline in Dublin is to be welcomed, as is the fact that affordability continues to improve,” said the report’s author, DKM director Annette Hughes.

“The median asking price for a 3-bed semi ranges from €149,000 in Longford to €285,000 in Dublin. The national figure is now €179,000, which is equivalent to around five times’ average earnings,” Ms Hughes said.

Further price drops are likely over the course of 2011, she added, partly as a result of impending interest rate hikes.

The European Central Bank has signalled that it will increase rates as early as the meeting of its governing council this Thursday.

MyHome.ie managing director Angela Keegan said the figures indicated 2011 is going to be another challenging year.

“While the stamp duty changes have attracted trader-uppers back into the market, first-time buyers face some difficult choices,” she said. “They will have to weigh up the fact that prices may fall further with changes in mortgage interest relief which it appears now will be introduced at the end of the year.”



Interest rates now said to be heading higher I wouldn’t be buying as I expect to see house prices averaging  around  125,000:00 in Dublin and even that on the merger average industrial wage is to expensive so at  210,000:00 we have a long way to go to get to the bottom .For the current oversupply of Apartment shoeboxes in Dublin I would hope to see the average price come down to a realistic 45-55,000:00 euro and that’s with car parking  otherwise forget it !

Sean Fitzpatrick is renting properties at bargain-basement levels

Sean Fitzpatrick – best value for money landlord in the State?
namawinelake | September 25, 2010 at 11:38 am | Categories: Irish Property, NAMA | URL: http://wp.me/pNlCf-C7  

The Irish Times yesterday reported on former Anglo Irish boss Sean Fitzpatrick’s continuing bankruptcy journey through the High Court and stated that Sean, together with his wife in some instances, has a number of properties on which he is collecting rent. The details of the properties given would seem to suggest that Sean is renting properties at bargain-basement levels, in particular on the following two properties:
(1) 25 Camaderry Road, Bray, Co Wicklow on which Sean gets €5,100 per annum in rent (that’s an even €425 per calendar month). I don’t know the road at all but a summary search on DAFT.ie shows a three-bedroom one-bathroom semi-detached house on Camaderry Road with a sale agreed status – the asking price was €569,000. There doesn’t seem to be any other property for sale or rent on Camaderry Road. If Sean’s 25 Camaderry Road property were similar to this property and the €569,000 asking price was a reflection of the value of the house then Sean would be getting a yield of 0.9%. The Rent Assistance for Wicklow is €529 pcm at the very lowest single occupancy level and rises to €1,110 pcm, so Sean appears to be undercutting the State’s own rental assistance levels!
(2) Flat at 7th,8th and 9th floors, Smithfield Market, Dublin on which Sean is reported to be receiving €16,800 per annum (equal to an even €1,400 per calendar month). Again there are no further details of the accommodation but if the apartment extends over three floors, it is hardly a studio! Now it appears that you can rent a 1-bed apartment from €850 pcm in the Smithfield Market but penthouse apartments would appear to be going for €2,600 pcm. Without knowing more details about Sean’s flat it would be difficult to comment but on the face of it a 3-floor flat for €1,400 pcm appears very low.
It should be said that the Irish Times article also refers to a property at Killiney Court being rented for €30,000 per annum (€2,500 pcm) and previous reporting has claimed this property is an apartment so it would seem that the rental on the Killiney Court property is more in line with open market rents.
source http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/author/namawinelake/

Files in the Land Registry Office show that Mr and Mrs FitzPatrick became owners of an apartment in Smithfield Market in December 2006.

Ownership of the apartment, which is on the seventh, eight and ninth floors of the building according to the registry documents, was transferred in December 2006 by Fusano Properties.

Fusano was the developer of the complex and is part-owned by businessman Paddy Kelly. Fusano was funded by Anglo Irish Bank.

Mr Kelly’s loans are now understood to belong to the National Asset Management Agency.

In May 2008, a mortgage against the property was registered by Haven Mortgages. In his statement of affairs filed as part of his bankruptcy proceedings, Mr FitzPatrick said he was getting an annual income of €16,800 from the apartment. source http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2010/0924/1224279586377.html

In May 2008, a mortgage against the property was registered by Haven Mortgages. In his statement of affairs filed as part of his bankruptcy proceedings, Mr FitzPatrick said he was getting an annual income of €16,800 from the apartment.

The apartment was one of three properties he said he was renting but which, when mortgage payments and other costs were taken into account, were producing a monthly loss of €3,505.

Another of the properties was 25 Camaderry Road, Bray, Co Wicklow, from which Mr FitzPatrick gets €5,100 per annum in rent.

A lien against this property was registered in March 2009 in favour of Ulster Bank.

The final property being rented is at Killiney Court, Station Road, Killiney, Co Dublin, from which he gets rent of €30,000 per annum.

source http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2010/0924/1224279586377.html


I thought Sean Fitzpatrick has only 188 euro a month to live on!

Why is this c**** been let con his creditors and the Irish taxpayers?

Anywhere else he would not have such a grin on his face

he is making such a fool out of us all ! He should be in Jail along with the rest of the gangsters that have destroyed this country

A taste of things to come here in Ireland

A taste of things to come here in Ireland

According to David Mc Williams’s latest article” Collapsing house prices? We ain’t seen nothing yet

A comprehensive report on the Irish property market is out and it confirms the total destruction of wealth of a certain generation. According to the wonderfully detailed work done by Ronan Lyons at Daft.ie, asking prices countrywide fell by just over 4pc in the second three months of the year.

The average asking price nationally in the second quarter of 2010 was just over €224,000 — 36pc below its 2007 peak. The acceleration in price falls will come as little surprise, but the question now is how can a generation whose balance sheet has been so totally vaporized ever start spending again?

David has given some examples of what an investment in such a property to –day would yield (approx 7 %) for an investor and thus come to a realistic current price for the said property namely €135,620.

But as I have already highlighted my specific and well tested way of calculating the proper price of any property .(See http://thepressnet.com/2010/04/05/lenihan-raising-house-prices/) (namely 10 X times the annual rent less costs like taxes and fees) will give you a very close figure to the most realistic price for a property

So if we were to look at what an investor should receive if they were to invest now at these prices with a possible rent of 900 euro per month perhaps coming in from this investment your total return would be 900 X12 (months) = 10,800:00

Less property tax (currently 200:00 Euros)

And maybe even management fees in the case of apartments in the city approx 2,000 so all told I would say you would have a net return of 8,600 Euros you might also consider income tax at 30%.but even if there are no management fees you will certainly have to pay income tax

In any case I would come to a figure of 8,600 X 12 months = 103,200:00 been the maximum I would pay for that property but in the current climate and baring in mind that there are over 250,000  housing units unsold and we have approx 60,000 people leaving the country ,and the government pushing rents down by as much as 30%  in some areas ,unemployment  true figures heading up to 20% plus, I would expect that these prices still have a long way to go and I’m afraid to say lower much lower, with a bottom of around 65,000 euro per unit

These prices would then bring us back to the average prices we currently see in places like Germany and France

David is usually accused of being a profit of doom ,well I would consider his latest announcements on house prices as been quite optimistic very  optimistic

Here is a video clip I picked up describing the current situation in the US and I believe it would support my expected outlook of things to come

Bad news for the value of NAMA loans

 Very bad news for the value of assets behind NAMA loans
namawinelake | July 14, 2010 at 7:02 am | Categories: NAMA | URL: http://wp.me/pNlCf-p6

Jones Lang Lasalle (JLL), John Mulcahy’s old company today publishes its index for Irish commercial property for Q2, 2010 and it continues to show declines. The Report should be available from JLL later (free registration required). Jack Fagan at the Irish Times reports that the overall capital index has fallen by 4.7% in Q2, 2010 bringing the cumulative fall since the start of the year to 6.7%. The index is published on a quarterly basis only but if it is assumed that the Q4, 2009 index fell at an even rate then this would mean that the overall commercial capital index has fallen by 8% since 30th November, 2009 – the date chosen by NAMA to be the Valuation Date pursuant to section 73 of the NAMA Act for the assessment of Current Market Values of property backing NAMA loans. Here is the index
Q3, 2009               682
Nov 30 2009          664 (655+(682-655 )/3)
Q4, 2009               655
Q1, 2010               641
Q2, 2010               611 (calculated Q1, 2010 less 4.7%)
Because JLL publish their quarterly index before SCS/IPD and because, like SCS/IPD, the JLL index is one of the sources on which NAMA can rely according to the LEV regulations, I am today changing the basis of the Ireland Commercial NAMA property performance shown in the header above from SCS/IPD to JLL.
There is an important consequence to the information published by JLL today – based on the latest performance of the indices covering Ireland and UK (commercial and residential) and on the basis of NAMA having 1/3rd of its assets in the UK, this means that the value of the NAMA portfolio can’t possibly be “broadly neutral” as claimed by the Minister for Finance two weeks ago. If you take NAMA’s assets to be €40.5bn and assume 1/3 (€13.5bn) are in the UK and the rest are in Ireland (about 7% were expected to be in the Rest of World so this is an approximation). The UK Commercial sector is outperforming residential so assume (in the best case for NAMA) that 100% of the NAMA assets in the UK are commercial. The Irish Commercial sector at -8% since last November 2009 has outperformed the latest available Permanent TSB/ESRI index so let’s assume 100% of Irish assets are commercial also. At the *very best* for NAMA, the assets backing the loans have fallen by €1bn from €40.5bn to €39.5bn by reference to a 30th November, 2009 Valuation Date. If the assets were 100% residential then the fall is €1.6bn (and remember that relies on the Permanent TSB/ESRI index which is three months out of date and is likely to have shown further falls in Q2 if the DAFT.ie report published yesterday is a good guide).

source http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2010/07/14/very-bad-news-for-the-value-of-assets-behind-nama-loans/

House prices set ‘to fall further’


Just a few days after the Minster of Finance told us  the Nation, that the property prices have bottomed out .

we now get this report and again this shows that this Man cannot count and must be on something from the countless Head shops around the country!

IRISH TIMES reporters

House prices could continue to fall for a further 18 months, TCD finance professor Brian Lucey has warned.

The prediction came as property website Daft.ie published data that showed that although the property price crash is slowing, it is not yet over.

The latest Daft.ie house price index showed that asking prices fell by 3.4 per cent in the first three months of 2010, which represents the smallest quarterly fall in almost two years. The average house price nationally has now fallen by one-third from the peak in May 2007 to €234,000.

However, commenting on the report, Prof Lucey said that a total fall of 50 per cent is likely. Based on this assumption and average price declines since the peak, the market will not bottom out for another 18 months, he predicted.

Price falls in early 2010 were steepest in Dublin’s commuter counties, Galway city and north county Dublin.

In Dublin city centre, average prices have now fallen 44.2 per cent since the peak to €238,926. This is the sharpest decline experienced in any region.

The length of time that properties spend on the market has risen slightly in all parts of the country, including Dublin where it increased from four to five months. However in Connacht and Ulster, properties sold in the first quarter had been on the market for a 15-month average.

“Buyers are clearly factoring in further deflation,” Prof Lucey said.

Overall, the stock of houses available for sale has fallen by about 5 per cent since the middle of last year. However, in Dublin, the stock has declined by a more significant 20 per cent, which indicates that the overhang of unsold properties may be clearing in the capital.

“Furthermore, the news that almost one in three properties listed in January is either ‘sale agreed’ or sold suggests that those who price their properties keenly will find a buyer,” commented Daft.ie economist Ronan Lyon.

Prof Lucey said the fact there is no real-time or even monthly house price index produced by a Government agency is “unconscionable”. “We are, as a nation, steering blind, not to mention dumb, on the seas of house price deflation,” he said.

He added that based on the Daft.ie figures, the emerging problem of negative equity will deepen, which in turn will act as a bar “to labour mobility, to discretionary expenditure, and ultimately to economic growth”.

Meanwhile Fine Gael’s Kieran O’Donnell said the figures show the Minister for Finance’s claim that prices had reached rock bottom is “dangerously misguided”.

He said: “The reality is that thousands of people are already stuck in negative equity because of the property bubble stoked by Fianna Fáil. Many have lost their job and now face losing their home.

“This is a truly disastrous situation.

“For Minister Lenihan to be encouraging more young people to enter the housing market at such a risky time is downright irresponsible,” Mr O’Donnell added.

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