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Posts tagged ‘Bloomberg’

Greece Slams EU Bailout-ers: “We Don’t Want The $7 Billion, We Want To Rethink The Whole Program”

 greece_elections_victory

UPDATE: “CONSTRUCTIVE TALKS” are over:

  • *GREECE’S VAROUFAKIS SAYS WILL NOT ASK FOR BAILOUT EXTENSION
  • *VAROUFAKIS SAYS WILL NOT ACCEPT SELF-PERPETUATING CRISIS
  • *VAROUFAKIS SAYS DISCUSSED EURO AREA, NEW DEAL FOR GREECE
  • *DIJSSELBLOEM SAYS UNILATERAL STEPS IS NOT THE WAY FORWARD
  • *DIJSSELBLOEM SAYS GREECE SHOULD CLARIFY ITS POSITION (we think they did!)
  • *GREECE’S VAROUFAKIS SAYS WILL CONVINCE EU PEERS ON NEW DEAL

As Eurogroup chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem (of “template” foot in mouth infamy) heads to Athens for talks today, Bloomberg reports the new Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis has a clear message for his European overlords of the past: “We don’t want the 7 billion euros…We want to sit down and rethink the whole program.” While this exposes the nation’s banking system to further runs, yesterday’s revelation that Russia could step in with financing should they need it, leaves Dijsselbloem and Shulz with less and less leverage even as Spain’s chief economic advisor warns, if Greece doesn’t play along, “there will be problems on all fronts.”

“Will Greece antagonize the European union? If they don’t there won’t be any problems,” Alvaro Nadal, chief economic adviser to the Spanish prime minister, said in a radio interview in Madrid on Friday. “If they do, there will be, on all fronts.”

And, as Bloomberg reports, that is what Greece’s new government is doing (as they promised the people),

Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said he’s not interested in persuading Greece’s official creditors to release the final 7 billion euros ($8 billion) of bailout funds as Eurogroup Chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem headed to Athens for talks on Friday.

 

Greece wants to agree a new plan shifting from spending cuts to combating corruption and boosting public investment. The proposal hinges on the euro area and the European Central Bank agreeing to write down Greece’s public debt, a suggestion that has been met with skepticism by officials across the rest of Europe.

 

“We don’t want the 7 billion euros,” Varoufakis said in an interview with the New York Times published late on Thursday. “We want to sit down and rethink the whole program.”

 

 

“In all honesty, if you sum up all their promises then the Greek budget will very quickly be out of balance and then further debt relief won’t help anyway,” Dijsselbloem said in Amsterdam on the eve of his trip. “We want to keep Greece in the euro zone, in the European Union, but that also requires the Greeks to meet their commitments.”

Things are not going well…

European Parliament Martin Schulz confirmed the divide between Tsipras and the rest of Europe after two hours of talks with the Greek leader in Athens on Thursday.

full article at source:http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-30/greece-slams-eu-bailout-ers-we-dont-want-7-billion-we-want-rethink-whole-program

ECB Says May Buy Gold, Stocks Next, Admits “Not Sure If Japan’s QE Has Worked”

While it remains to be seen if a majority of the Swiss population want their central bank to purchase a whopping 1,500 tons of gold in the coming years, perhaps the most notable event for gold overnight (aside from news that while India exports fell 5% in October, gold and silver imports soared by 280% and 136% Y/Y, respectively), came from ECB Executive Board member Yves Mersch who in a speech in Frankfurt said that the ECB balance-sheet expansion is “neither an end in itself nor a fetish.” As quoted by Bloomberg, the ECB member said that  “the effect on rates that comes along with it is at best a collateral benefit.”

Nothing new here: we have discussed why unlike Japan and the US, the biggest gating factor for Europe is the presence of freely-available, unencumbered collateral that could, at least in theory, be purchased by the ECB. Which brings us to the Mersch punchline: “Theoretically the ECB could purchase other assets such as gold, shares, ETFs to fulfill its promise of adopting further unconventional measures to counter a longer period of low inflation.”

In other words, for the first time ever, the ECB revealed just what the endgame for the Eurozone would looke like: full-blown monetization of virtually everything that is not nailed down. Including gold.

More from Mersch via Bloomberg: “The ECB should allow current stimulus measures to take effect first, then potential new measures must be analyzed in advance for effectiveness and conformity to ECB mandate.” He concluded by saying that “Monetary-policy easing can bring no positive effect if Europe’s economy isn’t structurally well-positioned” through reforms.

Which is ironic because in the same speech the same Mersch also opened a whole new can of worms when he admitted that he is not sure if the BOJ’s QE has worked.

“I’m not so sure it has worked, considering that this morning we saw that Japan has officially slid into recession again.”

full article at source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-17/ecb-says-may-buy-gold-stocks-next

The Germans, Italians, French… Most Of Western Europe On The Brink Of Bank Collapse!

The logo of Deutsche Bank AG without wordmark.

The logo of Deutsche Bank AG without wordmark. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

By Reggie Middeleton of the www.Boombustblog.com

If those who persue the BoomBust regularly recall, on Tuesday, 12 July 2011 I penned BoomBustBlog Traders Armed With BoomBustBlog Research Caught ~10% Deutsche Bank Fall.

Deutsche Bank looks downright UGLY! Our new Forensic Analysis/Technical Trade combo called this one out about 2 weeks ago with impressive precission. Kudos to all who contributed.

DB is now trading 20 points lower. Those that haven’t read said piece should check it out for the resident BoomBustBlog traders and fundamental analysts caught this one right on the money and a full three months before the sell side and the pop media. On that note, Bloomberg reports Deutsche Bank Risk Seen Rising as Puts Appreciate Most in Europe: Options 9 Sep 2011

” There could be ongoing pressure on German markets because people want to be short and there could be some pricing… The price of options to protect against losses in Deutsche Bank …

It would appear that much of the pop media should follow the BoomBust a tad bit more closely. I will probably release the prime French bank run candidate some time soon, potentially on in the Max Keiser Show, as I drop little bread crumb hints along the way since the banks share price is already approaching our valuation bands. Anyone in the pop media space who wants a scooping story, here is the motherload. On a separate, but related note, let’s look at what those DB puts looked like when the BoomBust first warned on said German bank…

 

And this just in from Bloomberg: Germany Said to Ready Plan to Help Banks If Greece Defaults

Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government is preparing plans to shore up German banks in the event that Greece fails to meet the terms of its aid package and defaults, three coalition officials said.

full article at source :http://boombustblog.com/index.php?option=com_k2&Itemid=200079&id=5851&lang=en&view=item

This is all about Irish Banks Too

  except the poor that can’t pay their TV License

Sellers of Anglo defaults may pay 25.5c on euro

Sellers of default insurance on Anglo Irish Bank may have to pay as much as 25.5 cents on the euro to settle contracts linked to senior debt.

Credit-default swaps traders set final recovery values in auctions yesterday of 74.5 per cent and 76 per cent on the senior bonds, according to Markit Group and Creditex Group. Results varied because of the different maturities of notes being auctioned.

Final values for subordinated debt were set at 18 per cent and 18.5 per cent.

Anglo Irish changed terms on 2017 subordinated bonds, virtually wiping out investors who did not accept an 80 per cent discount on their notes.

Investors can choose not to settle contracts, betting they will get more if losses are imposed on remaining junior notes maturing in 2014 and 2016. – (Bloomberg)

Ireland Paralyzed by these two !

 

Looking at the London student’s demonstration yesterday I thought we might be looking at what the future hold in store for us in Ireland even the chants are the same! So is it the students we should be looking to for leadership???

The morning the Irish Government Bonds are now over 9% and I expect to see them continue to climb .The Game is up for the gangsters in Government but like all power crazed politicians they don’t want to go and leave all those lovely perks and trappings so we the ordinary citizens will have to suffer until this shower are pushed out of office and hopefully brought to justice

we are no longer an independent state these crooks have sold us out .

The yield on the Irish 10-year bond added 30 basis points to 9.06 percent. The 5 percent security maturing in October 2020 slipped 1.6, or 16 euros per 1,000-euro ($1,375) face amount, to 74.145. A decline today would extend their longest losing streak in at least three years. The Irish spread over bunds reached an all-time high of 652 basis points, or 6.52 percentage points, Bloomberg generic data shows.

Bank of Ireland takes bizarre action to prevent the State acquiring more than 50% control

Bank of Ireland takes bizarre action to prevent the State acquiring more than 50% control

namawinelake | November 9, 2010 at 1:27 pm | Categories: NAMA | URL: http://wp.me/pNlCf-M9

 

photo machholz

The State presently owns 36.5% of the ordinary stock of Bank of Ireland thanks to the payment in lieu of cash of the 8% dividend on the €3.5bn “directed” investment from the National Pension Reserve Fund in March 2009 and the conversion of some preference shares to ordinary shares in May 2010. You might recall that in February 2010, BoI paid out 184m ordinary shares to the NPRF on its €3.5bn preference share investment made in March 2009, in lieu of a cash dividend because the pesky EU had forbidden it to make a cash distribution when in receipt of State-aid. Three months later, the NPRF acquired additional ordinary shares in BoI through the rights issue by the bank and the conversion of some €1.7bn of the preference shares to ordinary shares. As part of the rights issue conversion of preference shares the interest rate payable on the remaining €1.8bn of preference shares was to rise from 8% to 10.25%. So that’s how the State this morning owns 36.5% of BoI and has €1.8bn of preference shares yielding 10.25% per annum with the dividend due next February 2010.

Next February 2011, BoI will be required to pay the NPRF €214m – roughly 10.25% of €1.8 (I say roughly because remember we had €3.5bn preference shares earning 8% for about two months of this dividend year and then the 10.25% applies for 10 months approx). We are now waiting almost four months (a record as far as I can tell) for the EU to publish the Decision announced on 17th July, 2010 which set out the conditions for BoI’s restructuring. I’m willing to bet that the EU will allow BoI to start making cash payment for dividends again. Because if they don’t, BoI would need pay the €214m in ordinary shares or at current prices (€0.42 per share with the company having an ordinary share capitalisation of €2.24m), nearly 10% of the company which would bring the State shareholding up from 36.5% to 46.5%. Given the volatility of BoI’s share price, we could easily end up with an ordinary share dividend which would give us 50% of BoI – majority control which seems anathema to the State’s strategy for the banking sector.

And so yesterday in the High Court we witnessed the bizarre spectacle of BoI applying (in simple terms) to be allowed reclassify part of its capital base in such a way that a dividend payment can be made in cash so the horror of the State taking majority control of BoI can be avoided. Of course if economist Morgan Kelly, whose latest jeremiad in yesterday’s Irish Times is correct (and there is sufficient support for his position to suggest he’s not being a crackpot), then the scale of non-NAMA losses in BoI will give us majority State control in the near future anyway. Nonetheless it is interesting to see the legal lengths to which BoI will go to avoid majority ownership in the next three months

Comment:

The Government accepts now that Anglo will cost the taxpayers 34.5 billion and we must accept that AIB and Bank of Ireland will cost at least €30 billion because they were just as bad as Anglo in lending, not only to the Developers but to ordinary folk that couldn’t not even afford the matchboxes the banks were lending out money for. So you end up with a taxpayer bill of €13 billion for Bank of Ireland plus the 3.5 billion we already paid out Bank of Ireland lending practices were on par or  even worse than Anglo Irish Bank as they tried to catch up with Anglo . With the worsening mortgage default situation heading our way and a possible bailing out of negative equity home owners a much bigger loss provision will have to be faced up to at Bank of Ireland and that is before we start on the derivates Losses .For my money we are now looking at the end game.

Bank of Ireland is only months away from been nationalized and to assume anything else is simple ignoring reality, there cooked and we the taxpayers are snookered!

Just two points in support of this assumption

(1)    Yesterday the Irish times seem to have now gone against the Government with that article from MORGAN KELLY up to now there were mostly cheerleaders for the Government in its actions with the banks and the whole NAMA set up, the Kelly article is a watershed and a parting of the waves and I believe the Irish times is “smelling change” of Government is in the air and want to be on the winning side.

(2)   Cowen and lenihan have lost the plot all together and we now have foreign” minders “taking up residence in the Department of Finance and also in Treasury Buildings (NAMA ) Our sovereignty in lost because of the actions of these traitors and the blame game is about to get started.

                God help us all

look at these videos

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/64352822/

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/64349432/

Phase #2 of the Euro-Zone Debt Crisis

Phase #2 of the Euro-Zone Debt Crisis

by Gary Dorsch | may 26, 2010

“A trend in motion, will stay in motion, until some major outside force, knocks it off its course.” For almost fourteen uninterrupted months stock markets around the globe were climbing higher, recouping $21-trillion of wealth since hitting bottom in March 2009. The global economy was pulling out of its worst recession since the 1930’s, led by locomotives in China, India, and Brazil. On May 4th a survey taken by JP Morgan showed that global manufacturing expanded at its fastest pace in six years in April as output and new orders surged to new multi-year highs.

In the United States factory activity was firing on all cylinders, lifting the Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) to a six-year high at 60.4 in April, with employers becoming increasingly confident about hiring. Although manufacturing is not a huge component of the US-economy the factory industry is still where recessions tend to begin and end. For this reason the factory PMI is very closely watched, setting the tone for the upcoming month and other key economic indicators.

The US economy added 570,000 jobs during the first four months of 2010. In sharp contrast, just a year earlier, the US economy was losing more than 700,000 jobs during the worst months of the “Great Recession,” which began in December 2007. Still there’s been a worrisome undercurrent lurking beneath the surface – the U-6 jobless rate, including those who can only find part-time work or are too discouraged to look for a job, rose to depression levels of 17.1% in April highlighting the deepening impoverishment of the American middle class.


Still, traders on Wall Street saw the glass as more than half full rather than half-empty. The key numbers were still turning up spades. The combined net income for S&P-500 companies in the first quarter were 46% higher from a year earlier, helping to fuel the S&P-500 Index’s 75% rebound from its recession low in March 2009. Analysts on Wall Street upped their forecasts for S&P 500 profits to grow 29% this year and 19% in 2011, the biggest two-year advance since 1998.

Bullish traders bought increasingly expensive stocks on all dips, comforted by a steady stream of remarks from Fed officials promising to keep the fed fund rates locked near zero percent for an “extended” period of time. So powerful was the hallucinogenic effect from $1.75 trillion of liquidity injected into the markets by the Fed that speculators bid up the Dow Industrials to the 11,200 level, just shy of the 11,450 level – where horror story of the Lehman bankruptcy began.

Yet according to a Bloomberg opinion poll dated March 19th-22nd, there was always a big “disconnect” between the bullish perceptions on Wall Street and the fear and trepidation felt by workers on Main Street. There was great disbelief in the theory that the Fed could simply inflate the US economy to prosperity. Barely one in three Americans thought the economy was on the right track, and less than 10% predicted the economy would be strong within a year. Most American investors plowed their remaining savings in bond funds and missed the “green shoots” rally.

Still, the strategy pursued by the Fed and US Treasury were rather simple – inflate the value of the stock market through any means possible, including massive money printing, pegging interest rates at ultra-low levels, clandestine intervention in the stock index future markets, and jigging the accounting rules for valuing toxic bank assets. Eventually, the “wealth effect” would kick in and consumers would increase their annual spending by 3.5 cents for every dollar of added wealth. The Fed’s QE scheme opened the monetary floodgates driving high grade and junk bond yields sharply lower, and fueling a $5.5 trillion recovery of US-stock values.


But just as US consumer confidence was rebounding to a two-year high, buoyed by the Dow Industrials’ rally above the 11,000-level and US-home prices showing a year-over-year gain of 2%, the first increase since 2005, “a major outside force, began to knock the stock markets off their upward course.” Few traders would realize how the tiny nation of Greece with just 11-million citizens could bring the world economy to the brink of another Lehman-style meltdown.

Few traders on Wall Street took notice of the obscure and thinly traded Greek credit default swap (CDS) markets. There was a sense of complacency about talk of a Greek debt default, with traders reckoning that at the end of the day politicians in Germany and France would ultimately bankroll a massive bailout and prevent panic and fear from spreading to other highly-indebted Euro-zone countries, like Portugal or Spain, and plunging the Euro into a death spiral.

However, lying beneath the surface of the euphoria on Wall Street a ticking time bomb was winding up and getting ready to explode. The villain igniting the fuse was a most unlikely source – the S&P credit rating agency – which usually lingers far behind the credit default curve. Surprisingly, S&P roiled Euro-zone politicians and shocked the markets on April 26th by downgrading Greece’s €300 billion of debt three notches to junk status, at BB+, and thus, derailing the upward trajectories in industrial commodities and global equities. 

In the eye of the storm Greek CDS rates soared towards 1,200 bps, and yields on Greece’s two-year notes jumped to 25.8 percent. Suddenly stock markets in the fastest growing emerging markets in Brazil, China, and Russia were at the gates of bear market territory after suffering steep losses of 20% or more. Crude oil plunged $23 /barrel to as low as $64 /barrel, and there was a 20% shakeout in the copper market. The Australian and Canadian dollars tumbled 12% and 7% respectively amid a flight from natural resource shares and monetary tightening in China.


On May 7th, EU monetary affairs chief Olli Rehn spoke about the need to avoid a Greek default on its debts at all costs. “Little did authorities of the United States know in September 2008 what the bankruptcy of investment bank Lehman Brothers would lead to. The consequence was that the world’s financial system was paralyzed in a way that led to the biggest global recession since the 1930’s. Consequences from Greece’s insolvency would be similar, if not worse,” he warned.

Rhen’s apocalyptic warnings were taken very seriously. Euro-zone finance ministers and central bankers huddled behind closed doors during the May 8-9th weekend working frantically to craft a bank bailout plan before the opening of the Asian stock and currency markets on May 10th. What emerged was “shock and awe” – a 750-billion euro ($1-trillion) bailout package, including standby loans and guarantees that could be tapped by Euro-zone governments that were shut out of the credit markets. Putting the squeeze on naked short sellers the Spanish IBEX Index jumped 15% in a single day and the Euro briefly jumped to a high of $1.3100.

Since May 10th however the “shock and awe” effect has worn-off. The Spanish stock market index has completely surrendered its one-day gain of 15%, and the Athens stock index has retreated to within 5% of its March 2009 lows. The Euro has failed to gain any traction and is still sliding lower along a slippery slope towards parity with the US dollar. While the $1 trillion bailout succeeded in preventing an immediate default on Greece’s sovereign debt, the cost of borrowing for Greece’s biggest banks remains prohibitively high, which could choke its economy to death.

Thus, the focus of the second phase of the European debt crisis has shifted from the specter of a sovereign bond default to a frightful situation where European banks may become unwilling to lend money to the private sector, or could demand higher interest rates or impose tougher collateral rules. In other words, the markets fear a “double-dip” liquidity crunch, which could deprive European companies with junk bond ratings of badly needed funds as banks become more risk averse.

Since May 10th credit default swaps for the Euro-zone’s top 50 junk rated bonds has surged to as high as €625,000 to insure €10 million of debt. That’s up sharply from €460,000 since the $1 trillion bank rescue plan was announced. In fact, the European corporate bond market has been effectively shut down for banks with bond issuance slumping to $2.6 billion in May, down from $82 billion in January.


Amid fears of a liquidity crunch in Europe there are expectations in the gold market that the ECB would respond by ramping up its money printing operations to full throttle, and in the process exerting further downward pressure on the Euro. As of May 21st the ECB had already bought 26.5 billion Euros worth of sovereign bonds as part of its agreement to monetize the debts of the most fiscally irresponsible Euro zone governments. The ECB might end up monetizing as much as 750 billion Euros of sovereign debt, including riskier bank bonds, to avoid a full blown crunch.

After climbing to a record 1,000-euros /oz in mid-May, Gold endured a brief pullback tumbling in tandem with sharp slides in crude oil, copper, nickel, rubber, and other industrial commodities. But gold has proven itself a very resilient metal and highly sought after as the purest form of “hard” currency, shining brightly as a hedge against paper currency devaluations and the monetization of government debt.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has crossed the Rubicon agreeing to monetize hundreds of billions of Euros held in Greek, Portuguese, and Spanish bonds. In the process the supply of Euros in world money markets is likely to increase. The ECB’s efforts at sterilizing the bond purchases are voluntary and have been feeble at best. Furthermore, at the end of the day, there is little chance that Greece’s 2.5 million working citizens can repay 300 billion Euros of debt, while at the same time absorbing 25% wage cuts in the public sector and paying 23% VAT taxes.

At some point Greece’s government would seek to untangle the noose strangling its economy and demand a restructuring the country’s debts, and in a polite way tell its lenders to take a big haircut. Argentina is holding a $20 billion debt swap this month at 45 cents on the dollar, nine years after defaulting on $95 billion of loans. The Euro would remain a very unstable and weak currency. Reports that Beijing is becoming increasingly nervous about its Euro zone bond holdings drove the Euro to as low as $1.2180 and fueled a flight for safety into gold.

source

Gary Dorsch
SirChartsAlot, Inc.

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