What is truth?

Posts tagged ‘Alexis Tsipras’

Why Goldman Is Closing Out Its “Tactical Pro-cyclical” European Trades On Grexit Fears

It will be politics rather than economics (or Q€) that drives the shorter-term outlook in Greece. Goldman Sachs warns that the new Greek government’s position is turning more Eurosceptic and confrontational than most (and the market) had anticipated ahead of last weekend’s election. This increases the risk of a political miscalculation leading to an economic and financial accident and, possibly, Greek exit from the Euro area (“Grexit”) and while many assume European authorities have the ‘tools’ to address market dislocations arising from this event risk, Goldman expects significant market volatility. Rather stunningly, against this background, and in spite of Q€, recommends closing tactical pro-cyclical exposures in peripheral EMU spreads (Italy, Spain and Portugal) and equities (overweight Italy and Spain).

Via Goldman Sachs,

Bottom line:

  • It will be politics rather than economics that drives the shorter-term outlook in Greece. Our base case remains that, eventually, some accommodation will be found between the new Greek government and Greece’s official creditors. This view has led us, so far, to expect modest spillovers from financial tensions in Greece to other Euro area markets. Thus far, this has proven correct.
  • But the new Greek government’s position is turning more Eurosceptic and confrontational than we anticipated ahead of last weekend’s election. This increases the risk of a political miscalculation leading to an economic and financial accident and, possibly, Greek exit from the Euro area (“Grexit”). While the European authorities now have better tools to address market dislocations in general (and the re-emergence of convertibility risk in particular), these are unlikely to be activated in a manner that entirely pre-empts market tension should Grexit risks intensify or materialise. We would expect significant market volatility surrounding an event of such systemic nature as Grexit. The intensity and persistence of such volatility would depend on the process by which Grexit occurred, and on the nature of the policy and political response to it in other Euro area countries.
  • Against this background, we recommend closing tactical pro-cyclical exposures in peripheral EMU spreads (Italy, Spain and Portugal) and equities (overweight MIB and IBEX vs. SXXP) until more clarity emerges about the direction ongoing negotiations between the new Greek government and the European authorities are taking. However, we continue to see the medium-term prospects for the European equity market as attractive given the high equity risk premium, the impact of QE in moderating deflationary fears, and improving cyclical prospects driven by the impact of lower oil prices and a weakening Euro exchange rate. We continue to see tighter intra-EMU spreads, steeper EURIBOR and ‘core’ yield curves over the balance of this year, and forecast 390 on the SXXP and 3800 on the SX5E over 12 months.

Greece: Taking stock post-election

Background – Pre-election expectations

1. Ahead of the Greek elections, it was widely anticipated that a new Greek government led by the radical-left Syriza party would embark on its promised renegotiation of the terms at which Greece receives financial support from the European and international authorities. Key elements of such a renegotiation would be: (a) demands for debt relief; (b) less strenuous (or even a reversal of) fiscal adjustment; and (c) relaxation of the conditionality and control over Greek policies imposed by the ‘troika’ (the European Commission, ECB and IMF overseers of Greece’s adjustment programme). These demands run counter to the terms offered by the European authorities in their proposed extension to the existing Greek adjustment programme.

2. The threat of renegotiation promised a period of heightened political tension between the new Greek government and the European authorities, as each staked out its bargaining position. In turn, these political tensions were likely to create strains in the Greek financial sector, reflecting market participants’ concerns that external financial support could be disrupted by the political stand-off.

3. In these circumstances, the risk of a Greek exit from the Euro (“Grexit”) would rise. Whatever the economic incentives to seek a compromise, in a fraught political situation the danger of a miscalculation leading to disorderly exit always exists. Yet nevertheless, ahead of the elections our base case was that ultimately a new accommodation would be found (see: “Greece: Uncertainty to persist and peak well after the election”, Global Markets Daily, January 23, 2015).

On the Greek side, the stated ambition of Syriza (and its leader, the new Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras) – in line with the overwhelming view of Greek public opinion (as reflected in polls) – was to retain the Euro and Greek membership of the Euro area. The realities of financial and economic dependence on external support, as well as the moderating effect of the anticipated more pro-European coalition partners in the new government, would eventually lead Syriza to seek some compromise.

full article at source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-02/why-goldman-closing-out-its-tactical-pro-cyclical-european-trades-grexit-fears

Comment:

By Thomás Aengus O Cléirigh
No matter what happens to Greece, the rest of Europe, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Ireland, Belgium France, peoples are now awakening only to see that the whole austerity “Thing” was nothing short of an engineered smash and grab of the savings ( National pension fund) and cash cow potential ( Tax collections) of the working class! A financial /economic system that rewards private gamblers who infest the national banks and are able to do as they please and if the reckless and downright criminal and treasonable actions result in massive debts the citizens of said countries are forced to pick up the tab! NO MORE! Greece is just the beginning and we the peoples of the various enslaved countries will not stop until we have rid ourselves of this toxic financial system: We want a better future for our children we have shafted all our lives and we are slowly waking up to the lies of this insane financial and political system where we always lose! We must always put of having a decent liven now for some unspecified future, but our political parasites and the bankers can have lottery lifestyles now! NO More! We will ensure our children will not have to pay these odious debts period!
We must end this monopoly money financial system where the ordinary people are always the losers!

Alexis Tsipras’ “open letter” to German citizens

EL LÍDER DEL PARTIDO IZQUIERDISTA GRIEGO, ALEXIS TSIPRAS

Most of you, dear Handesblatt readers, will have formed a preconception of what this article is about before you actually read it. I am imploring you not to succumb to such preconceptions. Prejudice was never a good guide, especially during periods when an economic crisis reinforces stereotypes and breeds biggotry, nationalism, even violence.

In 2010, the Greek state ceased to be able to service its debt. Unfortunately, European officials decided to pretend that this problem could be overcome by means of the largest loan in history on condition of fiscal austerity that would, with mathematical precision, shrink the national income from which both new and old loans must be paid. An insolvency problem was thus dealt with as if it were a case of illiquidity.

In other words, Europe adopted the tactics of the least reputable bankers who refuse to acknowledge bad loans, preferring to grant new ones to the insolvent entity so as to pretend that the original loan is performing while extending the bankruptcy into the future. Nothing more than common sense was required to see that the application of the ‘extend and pretend’ tactic would lead my country to a tragic state. That instead of Greece’s stabilization, Europe was creating the circumstances for a self-reinforcing crisis that undermines the foundations of Europe itself.

My party, and I personally, disagreed fiercely with the May 2010 loan agreement not because you, the citizens of Germany, did not give us enough money but because you gave us much, much more than you should have and our government accepted far, far more than it had a right to. Money that would, in any case, neither help the people of Greece (as it was being thrown into the black hole of an unsustainable debt) nor prevent the ballooning of Greek government debt, at great expense to the Greek and German taxpayer.

Indeed, even before a full year had gone by, from 2011 onwards, our predictions were confirmed. The combination of gigantic new loans and stringent government spending cuts that depressed incomes not only failed to rein the debt in but, also, punished the weakest of citizens turning people who had hitherto been living a measured, modest life into paupers and beggars, denying them above all else their dignity. The collapse of incomes pushed thousands of firms into bankruptcy boosting the oligopolistic power of surviving large firms. Thus, prices have been falling but more slowly than wages and salaries, pushing down overall demand for goods and services and crushing nominal incomes while debts continue their inexorable rise. In this setting, the deficit of hope accelerated uncontrollably and, before we knew it, the ‘serpent’s egg’ hatched – the result being neo-Nazis patrolling our neighbourhoods, spreading their message of hatred.

Despite the evident failure of the ‘extend and pretend’ logic, it is still being implemented to this day. The second Greek ‘bailout’, enacted in the Spring of 2012, added another huge loan on the weakened shoulders of the Greek taxpayers, “haircut” our social security funds, and financed a ruthless new cleptocracy.

Respected commentators have been referring of recent to Greece’s stabilization, even of signs of growth. Alas, ‘Greek-covery’ is but a mirage which we must put to rest as soon as possible. The recent modest rise of real GDP, to the tune of 0.7%, signals not the end of recession (as has been proclaimed) but, rather, its continuation. Think about it: The same official sources report, for the same quarter, an inflation rate of -1.80%, i.e. deflation. Which means that the 0.7% rise in real GDP was due to a negative growth rate of nominal GDP! In other words, all that happened is that prices declined faster than nominal national income. Not exactly a cause for proclaiming the end of six years of recession!

Allow me to submit to you that this sorry attempt to recruit a new version of ‘Greek statistics’, in order to declare the ongoing Greek crisis over, is an insult to all Europeans who, at long last, deserve the truth about Greece and about Europe. So, let me be frank: Greece’s debt is currently unsustainable and will never be serviced, especially while Greece is being subjected to continuous fiscal waterboarding. The insistence in these dead-end policies, and in the denial of simple arithmetic, costs the German taxpayer dearly while, at once, condemning to a proud European nation to permanent indignity. What is even worse: In this manner, before long the Germans turn against the Greeks, the Greeks against the Germans and, unsurprisingly, the European Ideal suffers catastrophic losses.

Germany, and in particular the hard-working German workers, have nothing to fear from a SYRIZA victory. The opposite holds. Our task is not to confront our partners. It is not to secure larger loans or, equivalently, the right to higher deficits. Our target is, rather, the country’s stabilization, balanced budgets and, of course, the end of the grand squeeze of the weaker Greek taxpayers in the context of a loan agreement that is simply unenforceable. We are committed to end ‘extend and pretend’ logic not against German citizens but with a view to the mutual advantages for all Europeans.

Dear readers, I understand that, behind your ‘demand’ that our government fulfills all of its ‘contractual obligations’ hides the fear that, if you let us Greeks some breathing space, we shall return to our bad, old ways. I acknowledge this anxiety. However, let me say that it was not SYRIZA that incubated the cleptocracy which today pretends to strive for ‘reforms’, as long as these ‘reforms’ do not affect their ill-gotten privileges. We are ready and willing to introduce major reforms for which we are now seeking a mandate to implement from the Greek electorate, naturally in collaboration with our European partners.

Our task is to bring about a European New Deal within which our people can breathe, create and live in dignity.

A great opportunity for Europe is about to be born in Greece on 25th January. An opportunity Europe can ill afford to miss.

CRISIS ATHENS: The price of everything, and the value of nothing.

One building ,not as yet for sale in central Athens is that of the left-wing Party  led by Alexis Tsipras, Syriza. But across from that square and two  blocks down, the People’s Republic of China has bought a building that  was once a major department store.

“The Chinese already own half of Piraeus, and they are trying to buy  the rest of it,” said a Greek businessman as we drove together Friday  night to a restaurant in the outer southern suburbs of Athens.

“Over there – not far from the Syriza building – is an old warehouse  bought by the Chinese,” another source told me as we walked about in the warmth of an Athenian early afternoon, “They have four floors in the  building blocked off. Nobody knows what happens in there”.

Today, in April 2013, everything in Greece is for sale. Two days ago a small girl – aged no more than ten I would estimate – came up to me,  playing her violin in a main market  thoroughfare close to the  Acropolis. She wasn’t much of a violinist, but after finishing the  piece, she said something to me…and of course, I didn’t understand. A  man watching nearby, resigned of expression, said “She is saying she  costs very little for your pleasure”.

I gave the kid a small coin and asked the bloke if this was  commonplace. “Not common,” he replied, “but not rare either. These  bastards will reduce us to an animal state”. I wanted to ask him more,  but he waved me away. I don’t blame him; imagine how I’d feel in my own  country, being asked by a passing Swede if all English prepubescent kids now whored on the streets.

In a Telegraph piece posted last night from Rhodes by Harriet Alexander, she notes that a ……..

full article at source: http://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2013/04/21/crisis-athens-the-price-of-everything-and-the-value-of-nothing/

 

Tsipras calls for government to end troika talks

English: Alexis Tsipras in a press conference ...

English: Alexis Tsipras in a press conference in Komotini. Ελληνικά: Συνέντευξη Τύπου του Αλέξη Τσίπρα στο ξενοδοχείο Ξενία στα πλαίσια της επίσκεψης του στην Κομοτηνή 13.11.2008 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Syriza chief Alexis Tsipras called on the government to end any discussion with the representatives of the EC-ECB-IMF troika, and propose an EU Summit meeting to focus on a different strategy for Greece.

Addressing the Syriza parliamentary group on Monday, Tsipras voiced his party’s determination to engage in dynamic action against privatisations and made a special reference to the case of ATEbank, calling it a “premeditated crime”.He also referred to the Hellenic Postbank, stressing that “private interests and their stooges” will be met with his party’s strong reaction

The Syriza leader further lashed out at the three-party government, accusing it of letting time pass instead of negotiating, effectively accepting the country’s “total isolation”, as he claimed.

He spoke of “imminent bankruptcy measures,” adding that “the programme has failed.” He also said that the memorandum has gone bankrupt and “its architects, like the IMF, are the first to jump ship.”

full article at source:  http://www.athensnews.gr/category/1

 

Tag Cloud