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Archive for the ‘Irish budget deficit’ Category

Lenihan raising house prices

 

Extract from article in namawinelake  ( click on text)

On the Minister of Finance.

What business does he have telling us that prices are now realistic? What prices is he referring to? On what basis are prices realistic? To whom are they realistic? If prices are realistic does that, as the Independent aver, equate to prices being at the bottom? Maybe but let’s remember that the Minister must also on occasion don the leader’s hat and tell us to cheer up, it will get better and we will rebound and I know that we must believe that.

I wonder whether if the Minister donned the realist’s hat he would believe his own words at this point in time. If the Minister had just spent €54bn of the State’s money on gold, I wouldn’t expect him to say anything other than “buy gold today and get as much of the stuff as you can”. Time will tell.

 

Machholz comment

Spot on, this guy (The Irish Government) has at a stroke become the largest property owner (through his creation of the largest fraud in Irish history NAMA) in Europe if not the world.

I deal in the financial markets on a Daly bases and have done so for the last 15 years, buying stock and selling stock, hedging through options .It is common practice to see an action in the various markets called “pump and dump” this is done with 98% of the time of worthless stock

Large chunks are bought for pennies and the talked up, by analysts who get themselves on to such media channels Fox news, yahoo Finance and cbsmarketwatch and a whole host of other news outlets ,pumping the message that this is the time to buy this sh**

This of course is precisely what Lenihan is now trying to do, talk up the stock (Property) (mostly worthless stock)

The last time a Minster from this Government told people to buy property, (Berti Ahern) He said that if you were not getting into property now you were a fool, we all know what happened then!

I have over the years bought and sold property and always kept to a few rules when ,buying as there is only one rule when selling and that is sell at a profit.

 When buying

  • find out what rent you would get for the property

    Let’s say you will be getting 800 euro per month, and that rents are stable and not going down. This would then give an annual rent of 9,600:00 Euros

  • Multiply this figure by 10, this gives you 96,000.000:00Euros .This is the maximum you should pay for this building period!

    Why 10? , because this is the highest interest rates are likely to go. And with this system you will always get someone to rent and thus pay the mortgage.

  • Do not listen to the estate agent with regards to a price for the property; His or her interest is completely different to yours.
  • Ballpark value of average property is dependent on availability of credit from the banks

    And location .values can be arrived so

    The average working wage is currently 28,000:00 Euro and I believe falling because of the government’s income tax measures to pay off the huge bailout of the banks and their cronies in the Building industry.

    The stated policy of the Banks is to give only two and a half times salary and that is with conditions attached

    So 28,000:00 X 2.5 = 70,000:00 Walla, average price one should pay for a property in Ireland

    This formula works all over Europe (Germany, France etc)

  • So based on these figures we are nowhere near the bottom ,with 500,00 on the dole and approx 56,000 leaving the country, approx 23,000 young students leaving as well who do you think is going to buy all 300,000 empty properties around the country??


     

we need reform now!

The current Irish Government are responsible for the financial disaster the country is in,
With the establishment of NAMA the Government is trying to socialize the enormous losses that the Banks and their Developer buddies have encored.
Corruption is rife and now a new monster burocratic system is being created, where X politicians will have jobs for life and the same corrupt developers will be able to manipulate the housing market all over again
While the people are being robbed of their homes, savings, pensions, and education for their children, that same gangsters are running the country
This has to stop!
Join the CAB to-day and get things moving
Come on! Get active in your own area now!
We as a country need new faces and not the same old tired faces that have being around using the system to suite themselves.

overly optimistic Irish Government’s plan

By Sarah Collins in Brussels

Thursday March 18 2010

IRELAND’S plans to bring spending and borrowing under control may require deeper cuts than previously forecast, the European Commission said yesterday, as it demanded that Finance Minister Brian Lenihan take action on public sector pensions and provide more details about plans for further cuts over the next few years.

The commission said in the report that the Government’s plan to slash the budget deficit by eight percentage points over the next four years is overly optimistic and lacks detail. Ireland is currently running a budget deficit that is four times the EU’s limit but has promised to bring it below 3pc of gross domestic product by 2014.

“The budgetary outcomes could be worse than targeted in 2010 and considerably worse than targeted thereafter,” said the report.

“The authorities should stand ready to take additional measures beyond the planned consolidation packages in case growth turned out to be lower than projected in the programme.”

The biggest problem is the Government’s prediction that the economy will expand 3.3pc next year.

The commission’s forecast sees the economy growing by just 2.6pc.

The commission also says there are risks the 2010 Budget could fall victim to spending “slippages”, not least because of injections that could be called in to shore up the country’s banks.

Mr Lenihan did not set aside money to pay for any further cash injections into the country’s banks this year, despite widespread expectations that Allied Irish Banks, Bank of Ireland and Anglo Irish will all require billions of euros.

EU officials said Ireland’s adjustment process will be “rather drawn out” and that emigration and high interest rates on government debt could wear on the economy. The present plans would only stabilise government debt by 2020.

“Specific additional risks relate to the government’s bank guarantees to support the financial sector, which, if called, would lead to increases in deficit and debt,” it says.

It also told the Department of Finance to spell out how it will slash the deficit by three percentage points in 2012 and a further two points in 2013 and 2014 to bring it below the EU’s limit.

The department also needs to provide more data to explain some of its calculations, it adds. Revenue and expenditure projections are “technical” rather than being targets, it says.

“From 2011 on, taking into account the risks to the deficit targets, the budgetary strategy may not be consistent with the (EU) recommendation. In particular, the deficit targets for 2011-2014 need to be backed up by concrete measures and the plans for the entire period need to be strengthened,” the report says.

The call for the Government to strengthen the “binding nature of the medium-term budgetary framework” appears to be a demand for Ireland to make plans beyond the traditional scope of budgets here.

A government spokesman said yesterday that specific extra cuts or tax rises would be announced in relevant budgets, when it would take account of the then-prevailing economic circumstances.

The commission says the Government should introduce more public sector pension reform to improve the long-term sustainability of the public finances.

“The long-term budgetary impact of ageing is clearly higher than the EU average,” the report says.

The report adds that the Government should also consider plugging holes in the budget by widening its tax base. It says the effects of the new carbon tax will be negated by cuts in VAT rates.

“The sharp decline in revenue recorded in the context of the housing market correction and the wider recession has revealed some vulnerabilities of the Irish tax system, such as a narrow tax base and a high reliance on taxing transactions in assets,” the report says. Ireland is one of 20 member states under increased scrutiny by the EU executive for running up a deficit that exceeds the bloc’s limit.

Countries are legally bound to maintain deficits – the shortfall between revenue and spending – below 3pc of gross domestic product and keep gross debt – the amount the government borrows to finance the shortfall – below 60pc of GDP. Ireland’s deficit last year was 11.6pc of GDP, while debt rose to 64.5pc, both above EU thresholds.

In April last year Brussels gave the Government until 2013 to bring the deficit back into line but extended the deadline last December.

– Sarah Collins in Brussels

Irish Independent

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