What is truth?

Archive for the ‘Irish Bond prices and yields’ Category

spreads tell a story

CDS spreads  

Mr Lenihan, these figures tell the Irish People the real story the spreads cannot be dismissed and you are going to have to come clean on the true nature of the Banks derivatives time bomb

No more account gimmickry! No More drip, drip losses!

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Hangover for Irish Banks

Central Bank of Ireland located on Dame Street...

Image via Wikipedia

MONDAY’S jump in banking stocks was followed by a hangover yesterday as the country’s lenders pared most of the gains posted in the session.

Bank of Ireland fell 4pc to 69c after Standard & Poor’s (S&P) cut its outlook to “negative” from “stable” and warned that the lender faces “considerable challenges” restoring its credit profile as the Irish economy recovers slowly.

“Our view is that the Irish economy is likely to recover only quite slowly, with household finances remaining stretched, asset prices unlikely to start appreciating materially for a couple of years and credit demand remaining muted for many years,” S&P said in a gloomy forecast.

Allied Irish Banks, fresh from celebrating the sale of its stake in Bank Zachodni, tumbled 4.6pc to 75c as ING Group said the bank “is not out of the woods yet”, following the sale and is still “likely” to end up in majority state ownership.

Another stock feeling groggy yesterday was Norkom which tumbled 15.8pc to 80c, extending the previous session’s 24 decline following a profit warning.

CRH was another loser, slipping 1.9pc to €13.20 after the building materials company was downgraded to “neutral” from “outperform” at Credit Suisse by equity analyst Harry Goad. His target price is €14 per share.

The ISEQ ended the session down 20.44 points, or 0.7pc, to 2795.04 points. Elsewhere in Europe, stocks were little changed with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index close to a four-month high, as better-than-estimated US retail sales offset a selloff in utilities and a slump in German investor confidence.

Stocks initially rallied after a government report showed sales at US retailers climbed in August for a second consecutive month. Separate figures from the ZEW Centre for European Economic Research showed German investor confidence fell more than economists forecast to a 19-month low in September.

In the UK inflation unexpectedly exceeded the government’s 3pc limit for a sixth month in August; while a UK housing-market gauge fell more than economists expected in August to the lowest since May 2009, according to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors.

Electricity companies RWE and E.ON dropped after brokers downgraded Germany’s largest utilities. Philips lost 3.9pc after the world’s biggest lighting company set new financial targets for the next five years. Gamesa Corporacion Tecnologica paced advancing shares amid takeover speculation.

ARM Holdings retreated 4pc after the company said a number of executives sold shares in the UK designer of semiconductors that power Apple’s iPhone.

Ladbrokes dropped 1.2pc after Goldman Sachs downgraded its recommendation on the bookie to “sell” from “neutral.”

– Thomas Molloy

Irish Independent

 

Comment:

This comes as no surprise to me as I have pointed out in previous posts the two main banks are from any normal booking keeping standards, they are both bankrupt

They are engaged in hiding enormous losses behind dioubious financial instruments called derivates as they are not going to disclose these losses

I believe they are trying to drip feed the markets over the next 3-5 years if they can get the time from the government or they will try to pass them off to NAMA

There is some credence to this method as NAMA is the ideal vehicle to do so through the Toxic toilet that is Anglo Irish Bank

Stay away from Irish  bank shares as I expect the State will eventually end up owing a majority holding of Allied Irish Bank and possibly a 49% stake holding of Bank of Ireland at best!

Irish banks are still in denial

While all the focus has been on losses at Anglo Irish, the other Irish banks are in denial about the scale of State support needed. It is time to face the facts: the three viable banks need over €17 billion, writes PETER MATHEWS 

LAST WEEK, the scary reports of liabilities at Irish banks centred on the colossal Anglo Irish Bank loan losses, the scale of which I (and other analysts) had been only too aware of more than a year ago. The focus on Anglo Irish was understandable, as far as it went. But the banking sector crisis is not just about Anglo. The Government is missing the bigger picture entirely.

The Irish banking system is analogous to a household’s heating/plumbing system with inter-related boilers. The two big boilers are AIB and Bank of Ireland. There are other smaller boilers, including Anglo and Irish Nationwide, which got really badly damaged by using the wrong fuel and, as a result, they’re now broken beyond repair. The correct decision now is to “stop-cock” Anglo and Irish Nationwide out of the overall system, decommission them and wind them down, in an orderly way, over a period of five to seven years.

AIB and Bank of Ireland (BoI) are the economy’s two heavy duty “main boilers”. Both are now in highly unreliable condition, hissing and spluttering and stopping and starting unpredictably. Both need major refits and servicing. They are severely undercapitalised and poorly directed and managed. Yet both persist in pretending they’re in reasonable shape. They are not. And that’s absolutely the case for BoI, notwithstanding the insistent protests that it is okay because it has more or less raised the capital amount indicated as adequate last March.

But that was last March. And last March’s estimates for both AIB and BoI were not enough. BoI needs €6.5 billion, not €3.65 billion. And AIB needs €10 billion, not €7.4 billion.

The proof goes along the following lines. Gross loans in AIB listed for transfer to the National Asset Management Agency (Nama) totalled €24 billion. A (light) 40 per cent writedown on this figure amounts to €9.6 billion, which should be rounded at €10 billion. We note also that AIB will have to absorb large further losses on its mortgage loan book, its corporate loan book and its SME book and also on its personal lending portfolio. In addition, it may well have uncovered exposures on derivatives. For these reasons, and extensive relevant professional experience, I feel conscience bound to point out that AIB definitely needs recapitalisation now of not less than €10 billion. Furthermore, AIB should not be selling its stakes in Polish and US banks. They are the most profitable, cash-flowing parts of AIB. AIB is only doing this as a panic measure to try and plug its deepening capital shortfall.

Similarly, BoI needs a €6.5 billion recapitalisation. Why €6.5 billion? Because in BoI, the listed loans for transfer to Nama were €16 billion. Apply a 40 per cent write down. This amounts to €6.4 billion, which should be rounded to €6.5 billion. All comments applicable to AIB in the preceding paragraph apply also to BoI.

The Educational Building Society (EBS) also needs recapitalisation of €1 billion to cover its loan losses. Four months ago, the Oireachtas Joint Committee on Finance and the Public Service was advised that the three viable banks, AIB, BoI and EBS, needed immediate capital of €10 billion, €6.5 billion and €1 billion. That’s €17.5 billion in total. The question arises: should the State provide all of this on top of the €7 billion already invested in AIB and BoI in 2009? Clearly not. How much of this €17.5 billion should the State invest? Perhaps €11 billion, in appropriate proportions, into AIB, BoI and EBS.

All of this will result in temporary State nationalisation of these three banks. This leads to another question: where will the €6.5 billion balance come from? The State will be in majority control, at levels in excess of 85 per cent, and able to force existing bondholders in AIB, BoI and EBS to take writedowns on their holdings of bonds, while maybe offering them, say, a small debt-for-equity swap as a sweetener to soften the blow. After, say, five years, the banks will have regained reasonable annual-maintainable normal profit levels in the range €3.5 billion to €4 billion, putting the State in a good position to realise, by way of stock exchange or private sales, its investment of €18 billion in these three banks, plus a profit.

Temporary nationalisation of AIB and BoI will merely formalise the reality that, without 100 per cent State support, both are insolvent. Removal of the State guarantee on deposits at this point would lead to a run on the banks’ deposits. However, we see the banks continuing their delusory charade that they are financially sound and independent!

Realism and optimism are essential for recovery. But optimism must be based on reality. As a country we’re facing a stark reality. Protracted denial in the banking industry, the Government, official Ireland and the professions must stop. Unfortunately, the Fianna Fáil-led Government is responsible for the financial destruction of our economy. Regrettably, the Green Party has collaborated in this destruction. These are the facts. The true situation has been denied by the Government for far too long.

Finally, after two years, only in the last few days have the Minister for Finance, the Government and (some of) the banks been forced to admit the true scale of the destruction. What a waste. What a shame.

So let’s stop the stupid denial. Let’s acknowledge the scale of destruction in the Irish-owned banking sector, not just the Anglo Irish story. AIB and BoI have not been honest with us. Their loan losses are also a shock-and-awe story and they’re only being revealed, on the drip, in drawn-out chapters.

Let’s measure truthfully all the appalling financial damage. Let’s insist AIB and BoI are recapitalised at the truthful, honest, correct and much more robust levels (thereby resulting in temporary nationalisation and bondholder participation through bond writedowns) to enable them to make necessary, much larger, loan-loss provisions than they’ve done to date. Let’s reverse the nonsensical, unwieldy Nama project. This can be done speedily and simply. We’ve got to stop what has become a slow-motion Nama/banks bailout nightmare. Let’s roll up our sleeves and face the challenge. And let’s get on with the work of recovery

source http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2010/0909/1224278513715.html?via=mr

Comment

This is an excelent articel by PETER MATHEWS 

Early August I posted  my disbelief at the figures the EU stress test results for Allied Irish and Bank of Ireland at the time I stated I thought the figures from the EU were false and were conveniently forgetting some serious hidden derivative losses these corrupt institutions’ were keeping off the book through some fancy  account gimmickry  

My figures were for allied Irish were 10 billion and bank of Ireland, I thought 7 billion or there about .So it is nice to see an independent analyst confirm these figures

Comming over the wires I see headlines say

“Ireland has fallen four places to 29th on the list of global competitiveness and its banking system is the least sound of the 139 countries surveyed, according to the World Economic Forum’s annual rankings.”

now what does that tell you ?

“A picture is worth a thousand words”

Europe’s biggest can of worms is overflowing again.
Fears that Europe’s banks are vulnerable to losses on risky government bond investments are sending shivers through the European bond markets, especially Ireland and Greece. Investors are dumping risky bonds tied to weaker European economies and crowding into the safe havens of German and British government bonds.
Ireland, which is grappling with an increasingly expensive bail-out of troubled lender Anglo Irish Bank, is the single worst performer Tuesday.
The premium that Ireland has to pay over Germany to borrow from investors in the bond market has hit its highest level since the euro was created in 1999 (Specifically, 3.75 percentage points compared with 3.47 percentage points on Monday.) Prices of Irish bonds have fallen, sending the yield on the benchmark 10-year Irish bond above 6%. (Bond prices and yields move inversely.)
Greece isn’t faring much better. The yield on its 10-year note is nearly 12%, while its own “risk premium” over Germany has also blown higher. Portugal’s spreads are also weaker. Credit-default swaps for Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Greece have all jumped in price, suggesting investors are more worried about these countries defaulting on their debts

Source http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2010/09/07/europes-bond-market-tanks-again/

Struggling with the euro zone’s biggest budget deficit relative to its gross domestic product at more than 14% last year, Irish authorities are also grappling with the ballooning cost of bailing out the banks, especially state-owned Anglo Irish—a bill that has already hit €33 billion ($42.55 billion), or roughly 20% of Ireland’s GDP.

Source http://wsj.com

ON THE radio on Monday, Brian Lenihan spoke of “not showing his hand” to the European Commission. He suggested that we in Ireland had to “hold our nerve”. These phrases are not normally used in economic policy — rather, they come straight from the world of poker.
This language is appropriate as it probably best sums up the Government’s policy throughout the banking crisis — it has all been a big bluff.
Yesterday, the financial markets reacted to the gambler’s words by selling Irish bonds, thus driving the yield (at one stage) up from 5.78pc to 6.15pc.
Yields came down to 6.01pc, following rumours that the European Central Bank was buying Irish bonds. We are fast becoming a vassal state of the ECB, the only institution prepared to buy Irish bonds.
The ECB is doing this for one reason — to protect the bondholders of Anglo from the default which has to come. In this little game, we issue expensive IOUs at 6pc that the ECB buys with money it prints for nothing to keep open zombie banks that don’t lend. The ECB is doing this not to protect you, but to protect rogue creditors who have no right to expect that they will be paid.
source http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2010/09/08/we-dont-have-an-economic-policy-its-all-just-a-big-bluff

Ireland has effectively nationalised its financial system for two years: it will guarantee deposits and debts for the country’s six biggest banks until 2010. This means it is assuming potential liabilities of around EUR550bn, compared with existing government debt of EUR40bn and overall GDP of EUR160bn. The move has increased pressure on the UK authorities to boost the size of the deposit guarantee.
The move was designed to shore up rapidly dwindling confidence in the banking sector. Irish financial sector shares plummeted early this week amid fears that it is particularly dependent on the frozen interbank market; loan to deposit ratios are 150% in Ireland compared with 130% in the rest of the EU, Sebastian Orsi of Merrion pointed out in the FT. Banks have been “bleeding money” as the Irish property and construction markets have tanked, noted Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in The Daily Telegraph. Ireland has become the first eurozone member to slide into recession now that the property bubble has burst and consumption has slumped.
What next?
By effectively betting its economy, Ireland has “certainly upped the stakes in the confidence game that is banking”, as Alphaville said in the FT. The hope is that the guarantee will improve Irish banks’ access to funds on world markets. But Ireland may be in for a bumpy ride. Note that the banks’ assets are highly concentrated in “fast-fading” UK and Irish property, said Lex in the FT. At Anglo-Irish Bank, the exposure to these two sectors is 80% and at Bank of Ireland and Allied Irish it is 71% and 60% respectively. And if markets keep withholding wholesale funds from “property plays”, then the government “may have to reconsider that guarantee”.
source https://info.moneyweek.com/article.php?p_id=10807

Comment :
“A picture is worth a thousand words”

I have posted the various sources above in support my own opinion that the government are totally on the wrong economic path and what’s even worse they are hell bent on sticking with this disastrous policy all logic seems to have disappeared and we are becoming slaves to the mantra we must spin ourselves out of this mess no matter what
Brian Lenihans language is increasingly that of a gambler (read DavidMcWilliams latest posting on this Link above)
David is one of the country’s finest economists and it would appear this government are choosing to ignore his sound advice just like they did on the eve of the first bank blanket guarantees
This is the time when the government should be getting the best minds in the country to come up with a real solutions to the financial crises that is after all their own making
Whether you agree with me or not, that facts are the well informed lenders (Bond Traders) of the world certainly do so, and what’s more they are getting very nervous at the lack of this governments realistic economic road map
The constant dirp drip feed of ever more disastrous figures emanating from Anglo and NAMA should frighten all of us
The Governments belligerence and a misplaced sense of loyalty to their pals a la Galway tent has to be abandoned pronto, and these gamblers must face the music themselves
The Irish nation cannot afford the commitments made by incompetent government minsters that are overwhelmed by the sheer complexity that is the Derivatives market
It is just plain stupid to expect civil servants who have no training in this field to advice party indoctrinated con men to understand these financial nuclear bombs
There are only a hand full of people in the world that understand these complex financial instruments ,even after 10 years of market participation myself I still don’t know anybody in the field that has successfully traded their way into profit
These financial instruments were created by the largest financial corporations in the world (AIG, JP Morgan, Citi etc and they were designed as far as I can make out to protect themselves as they were the market makers as well as the insurer and we all know that insurance companies are notorious in looking after themselves
the bottom line here is the markets have now copped on to the spin the Irish Government have been spewing out on the world’s airways and they Ireland Ink has a set repayment capability and that is now breached and any further surprises coming from Anglo Irish and Allied or Bank of Ireland is going to push this little country over the Default Bridge
And with the current Captain on the Irish Titanic ignoring the warnings of Icebergs dead ahead what does he do?
Call for more Ice for his pals cocktail,s

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