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More Billions to go down the Irish banks black holes

A report from Goodbody Stockbrokers has argued that the State cannot bear the losses from the banking crisis on its own.

In a report on Irish debt levels, Goodbody says there should be some form of risk-sharing with bondholders. But it adds that Ireland cannot do this on its own, and should push for a Europe-wide solution to the problem.

Goodbody says some €21 billion of bank debt should be restructured now – otherwise there will have to be a restructuring of Irish sovereign debt some time after 2014. Goodbody economist Dermot O’Leary says a new government must act urgently, as two-thirds of these bondholders are due to be repaid over the next 24 months.

Goodbody estimates the savings to the taxpayer could be around €10 billion if a 50% haircut were applied to the outstanding stock of unsecured, unguaranteed senior and subordinate bondholders.

The stockbroker believes Ireland will not reach the target of a 3% of GDP budget deficit by 2014, as foreseen under the four-year plan. Instead it believes the deficit will still be 4.3%, and the debt/GDP ratio will reach 115%.

The report also warns that reducing Ireland’s debt to levels required by the EU Stability & Growth Pact could take 20 years of tight budgets, even if the targets set out for the next four years are met.

Goodbody says the costs of the banking crisis make it less likely that Ireland will be able to pay back its debts in the future. It has raised its estimate of the cost of the banking crisis to €57.5 billion or 36% of gross domestic product.

‘The new Government has a small window of opportunity to convince the EU that it is in everyone’s interest to implement a more comprehensive reform of the banking system, which recognises that the Irish sovereign can no longer support the burden alone,’ said economist Dermot O’Leary.

Other options suggested by Goodbody are allowing the European Financial Stability Facility to directly recapitalise weak banking systems such as Ireland’s or facilitate the sale of Irish banking assets through an EU-wide insurance scheme.

The Goodbody report also says a reduction in the interest rates charged under the EU/IMF bail-out is needed. It calculates that every one-point reduction saves €675m a year in interest payments.

Ireland will need more EU help to raise funds – NCB

Stockbroker NCB has said that Ireland will need further EU help after 2013 to raise funds. It says a lowering of the interest rate on EU loans would give Ireland a higher probability of weaning itself off aid by 2014.

The ‘Ireland Moves Forward’ report also identifies state assets that could be the first to be sold off to help the Government finances, including those in the areas of forestry, energy, networks and ports.

The report says Ireland can look forward to a two-tier jobless recovery in 2011 with exports continuing to grow but domestic demand remaining weak. It says that the country’s competitiveness has improved significantly through the economic downturn.

It also points out that foreign direct investment in Ireland increased significantly last year, despite the global pot declining by 8%.

NCB says the country will be rolled into the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), the permanent EU crisis mechanism to replace the current European Financial Stability Fund.

It says a lowering of the interest rate on EU loans would give Ireland a higher probability of weaning itself off aid by 2014.

But it argues that any post-general election attempt renegotiation of the terms of the EU/IMF financial support for Ireland would lead to a deal that looks ‘very similar’ to the existing one.

It says the only changes would be in the exact details of how the €15 billion in budgetary corrections in coming years are achieved. However, NCB does see changes to the interest rate taken at a European level as likely in the coming months.

Today’s report says the Irish banks remain reliant on the state for capital and on the ECB and Irish Central Bank for liquidity. It adds that the March stress tests will determine whether any additional capital is needed apart from the €10 billion already earmarked for the financial institutions.

NCB predicts that the National Asset Management Agency will be a major ‘dictator of activity in 2011’ and beyond.

NCB says the VHI, Coillte, Rosslare Port as well as energy sector assets like Bord Gáis and the ESB with generation and supply assets should be sold off ahead of network assets such as distribution and transmission.

Today’s report also says there are further falls in house prices with a further 10% fall from peak levels expected.

NCB says that the Irish equity market is no longer a reflection of the Irish economy. The report notes that Irish derived profits now represent 17% of overall profit in its sample of recommended Irish shares. That compares to 36% in 2006.

It says publicly quoted food and construction companies are likely to be active acquirers of other businesses this year, while the area of renewable energy/cleantech industries continue to be an area of significant investor interest.

source:http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0208/economy-business.html

Comment:

As Max has been saying we are still not been told the real figures and we continue to get a drip drip feed on this financial disaster .Now Dukes comes out and tells us that we must pump 15 billion more into these toxic black holes that is now All of the Irish Banks

The two main contenders for the top jobs in the new Government are choosing to ignore the real problem that is because they are themselves not in a position to understand the debt of this financial meltdown

The Banks must be allowed to fold and a new commercial bank that has new capital be brought into existence. The new 15,000,000,000: and not forgetting the new 1,500,000,000 for Bank of Ireland  billion  could be better spent in a new jobs stimulus packet and new Bank credit for small business

For God sake anybody with a atom of sense should know this !

See the Republic of Ireland’s national debt mount up, a measure of the legacy the Irish Government is in the process of bequeathing to the children of Ireland:

€ 95,314,656,426

The FINANCE DUBLIN Irish Government Debt Clock was set at midnight on June 30th 2009, when it was €65.278 billion It updates the latest figures for the National Debt of Ireland. The clock is re-set periodically, to reflect changes in debt and deficit estimates from the Dept of Finance, the National Treasury Management Agency (NTMA), and independent economists.

spreads tell a story

CDS spreads  

Mr Lenihan, these figures tell the Irish People the real story the spreads cannot be dismissed and you are going to have to come clean on the true nature of the Banks derivatives time bomb

No more account gimmickry! No More drip, drip losses!

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Is it time to let AIB go?

Allied Irish Banks' crest

Image via Wikipedia

Is it time to let AIB go?

namawinelake | November 2, 2010 at 11:51 am | Categories: Irish economy, NAMA | URL: http://wp.me/pNlCf-Kw

It sounds like the kind of decision a family around the death bed of a loved one faces. Though perhaps the comparison isn’t in the best taste, the reality is that the venerable 185-year old bank is facing insolvency and it is only the dogmatic government strategy of maintaining a duopoly of “Irish” banks not to mention over €10bn of public funds and significant ECB funds that is keeping the bank afloat. This entry examines the status of AIB and the cost of keeping it alive.

Firstly for our international friends, AIB is Allied Irish Banks PLC – note the plural “Banks”. It has nothing to do with the biggest failure in Irish corporate history, Anglo Irish Bank which is referred to domestically simply as “Anglo”. AIB was conceived in 1825 with the opening of a bank called Provincial Bank and over the next century and a half merged with other domestic banks to give us the Allied Irish Banks that we know today. Alongside Bank of Ireland it is seen as the rock of Irish banking.

During the property boom in the 2000s the bank was a late participant in the mania but there is evidence that once it arrived at the party it wasted no time in trying to catch up with the existing party-goers. The Minister for Finance estimates that the bank’s remaining NAMA loans are worth 40c in the euro (including long term economic value).

Its most recent set of accounts for the first six months of 2010 show that the bank had assets of €169bn, liabilities of €160bn and capital of €9bn. So it is a huge business in an Irish context but clearly solvent by reference to these results. Unfortunately the results don’t reflect the true condition of the loan assets. The cumulative provision for losses on NAMA loans in the interim results was 26% – that is, the loans were worth 74c in the euro. The most recent ministerial estimate is 40c in the euro. This should result in a further loss to AIB of €5.5bn. But NAMA loans form a small part of AIB’s total loanbook and the company will have some €81bn of non-NAMA loans (plus €4.5bn of €5-20m formerly NAMA loans) once NAMA has absorbed the poison. The cumulative provision on these loans in June 2010 was just €3bn (note 22 on page 83). Given that these loans include commercial property and business lending in a state which has suffered the greatest contraction in GDP amongst developed countries in modern times, I would suggest that provision is utter fantasy.

Like some shady cash-in-hand sole trader, AIB maintain a second set of books under the auspices of the Financial Regulator who in March this year set out the capital requirements for AIB and other banks (the Prudential Capital Assessment Review). In September using this second set of books, the Regulator announced that AIB needed raise €10.4bn by the end of this year. AIB’s strategy was to dispose of some assets and then to raise additional equity underwritten by the State. There is a detailed entry on these capital raising efforts here but in summary the bank disposed of its Polish operation (still subject to approvals) which yielded €2.5bn capital from the €3.1bn sale price and yesterday AIB held an EGM in which shareholders approved the sale of the bank’s stake in US bank M&T which should add €0.9bn to the capital coffers. The bank announced yesterday that it was placing the sale of the UK operation on hold (though there appears to be some back-pedalling on these comments this morning). Unless there is some dynamic between the UK sale and capital that means that the bank still needs €7bn in new capital in the next 60 days. And there is only sucker with that level of available funding that is willing to invest in what is likely to be an insolvent bank, and that’s the government who seem intent on placing just under one half of our National Pension Reserve Fund (that’s the €3.5bn invested in preference shares last year and the €7bn now needed as a proportion of the €24bn funds in the NPRF) in one basket (case) – AIB.

The government strategy seems chauvinistic (“we need a duopoly of Irish banks”), knee-jerked, immoral (not a word you’ll often see on here but taking money from the pension fund to prop up an insolvent bank is flagitious when there are other options to protect a functioning banking system), recklessly risky (one half of the pension fund is “invested” in one company in one sector). AIB should be taken into 100% state ownership immediately, the State should assess the value of any shareholdings in AIB (I expect they are worth nothing), negotiate with the €4bn+ of junior bondholders the company had at June 2010 and assess if senior bondholders might make a contribution to the insolvent bank. Only then should the State assess the systemic importance of AIB and should probably seek a buyer for the rump of that company. Even if the state is left with only one Irish bank so what? We have a Financial Regulator with 520 staff that should be able to regulate a restricted market to combat uncompetitive practices and when the Irish economy recovers other banks may see prospects here.

If on the other hand, we maintain the pretence that AIB is a viable bank then €7bn will need be found in the next 60 days. At the very best we are set to lose €1.8bn if we continue with the madness of the NPRF underwriting a share issue at €0.50 per share when the shares are presently trading at €0.35. With the healthiest Irish bank, Bank of Ireland, having to borrow 3-year funds at 5.875% last week (excluding costs) in a market where mortgages and commercial lending is still available at 3%, the prospects for profitability at AIB are slim in the context of the NPRF’s investment strategy which allows it invest in any market across the globe.

It is time to say our goodbyes and pull the plug.

source http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2010/11/02/is-it-time-to-let-aib-go/

Comment:

Unfortunately this government is hell bent on holding on to this once trophy bank along with the top notch gangsters and X Politicians at the helm who will not vote themselves out of this sought after gig

Since the Minister of Finance himself says that the still remaindering loans are only worth 40c in the euro this alone tells me that the bank is gone beyond repair, as every one of his pronouncements on figures have been totally out.  I expect that you wouldn’t even get 10 cent on the euro The cost is irrelevant as the down trodden taxpayers are going to pay up.This Bank is dead and powering billions into it is tantamount to treason.

Shut this toxic toilet down now and save us the poor taxpayers a little bit of pain!

Thomas

Residents movement for political change

Bank of America Corp

Bondholders are penalizing Bank of America Corp. the most of any of the largest U.S. financial firms as the investigation into the foreclosure crisis expands. Credit-default swaps on the country’s largest bank by assets rose above those of its peers by a record margin, according to data provider CMA. The contracts, which imply Bank of America has lost its investment-grade rating, exceed Citigroup Inc.’s by the most ever and surpassed Morgan Stanley’s this week for the first time in a year.

 Attorneys general from all 50 states joined to open an investigation into whether lenders and mortgage companies falsified documents as they sought to repossess homes. Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America said Oct. 8 it would curtail foreclosure sales nationwide, as speculation rose the lender would have to buy back home mortgages with faulty documentation. “As we look at the financial landscape and try to put pen to paper and figure out who might be most exposed to problems associated with foreclosure moratoria, with robo-signers, with mortgage put-backs,

Bank of America’s at the top of the list,” said David Havens, a financial institution debt analyst at Nomura Holdings Inc. in New York. Bank of America is being singled out for expanding its real-estate operations and acquiring Countrywide Financial Corp., then the biggest U.S. mortgage lender, in 2008 during the worst housing slump since the Great Depression, Havens said. The bank also increased its mortgage assets through the $29 billion purchase of Merrill Lynch & Co. in January 2009 under pressure from the Federal Reserve, which was trying to prevent failure of the U.S. banking system. ‘Nothing Different’ “There’s nothing different about our company today than yesterday,” Chief Executive Officer Brian T. Moynihan said after a speech in Boston yesterday.

The bank’s review of foreclosures will take “a few weeks to get through,” he said. Jerry Dubrowski, a spokesman for Bank of America, declined to comment further. Elsewhere in credit markets, the extra yield investors demand to own company bonds instead of similar-maturity government debt rose 1 basis point to 168 basis points, or 1.68 percentage points, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global Broad Market Corporate Index. The spread has narrowed 13 basis points since Aug. 31. Yields averaged 3.396 percent yesterday, the index shows.

Structured Notes Structured notes issuance in the U.S. reached a record, with banks selling $38.4 billion of the securities this year as investors turn away from stocks and toward fixed-income products. Sales of the products, which are bonds bundled with derivatives, compare with $33.9 billion last year and $37.6 billion in the previous record year of 2008, according to database StructuredRetailProducts.com. Credit-default swaps on the Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index, which investors use to hedge against losses on corporate debt or to speculate on creditworthiness, were little changed, rising 0.08 basis point to a mid-price of 98.54 basis points as of 12:58 p.m. in New York, according to index administrator Markit Group Ltd. In London, the Markit iTraxx Europe Index of 125 companies with investment-grade ratings increased 1.93 to 102.5.

The indexes typically rise as investor confidence deteriorates and fall as it improves. Credit-default swaps pay the buyer face value if a borrower fails to meet its obligations, less the value of the defaulted debt. A basis point equals $1,000 annually on a contract protecting $10 million of debt. ‘Political Implications’ The cost to protect Bank of America’s debt for five years climbed for a fourth day, touching yesterday’s record of 205 basis points, according to Phoenix Partners Group. The difference between the swap price and the average of the five largest banks grew yesterday to 41.1 basis points, the most on record. Citigroup’s swaps rose 3.2 basis points to 177 today and contracts on New York-based Morgan Stanley fell 2.2 basis points to 173, Phoenix data show.

In February, Citigroup’s contracts were 94.4 basis points higher than those of Bank of America’s, according to CMA. “For all of these residential real estate issues that are dominating the headlines today and have significant political implications in the 19 days going into the election, Bank of America sits there more exposed than Citigroup right now,” Nomura’s Havens said. Implied Ratings Prices on Bank of America’s credit-default swaps imply the debt is ranked Ba1 as of Oct. 13, five levels below its actual A2 grade, according to Moody’s Corp.’s capital markets research group. That’s the first time the firm’s swaps have signaled a junk ranking since May 6, the data show. Bank of America’s $2.5 billion of 4.5 percent notes due in April 2015 fell 0.381 cent to 103.89 cents on the dollar as of 11:36 a.m. in New York, Trace data show. The bonds were issued at 99.9 cents in March to yield 215 basis points more than Treasuries.

 The bank has $360 billion of bonds outstanding, Bloomberg data show. The rising price of swaps reflects potential costs that banks may face on so-called mortgage put-backs from investors. Put-backs occur when a mortgage lender is forced to repurchase a loan that’s been sold for securitization. Banks may also have to pay for legal challenges. Loan-Servicing Grade The Association of Financial Guaranty Insurers, a trade group for bond insurers, said in a letter last month toMoynihan that his bank should repurchase as much as $20 billion in home loans that were based on wrong or missing information. Moody’s put Bank of America’s loan-servicing grade on review for a possible downgrade on Oct. 4, citing irregularities in the foreclosure process and deterioration of loss mitigation and collections.

The bank’s swaps have doubled this year, adding 106.4 basis points. That’s still down from 400.7 basis points in March 2009, CMA data show. “You’ve had balance sheet repair but the work isn’t done,” said Joel Levington, managing director of corporate credit at Brookfield Investment Management Inc. in New York. “People need to get their hard hats back on.”

Comment:

If the market is now taking heed of the problems of Bank of America and mortgage defaults why are the Irish Banks ignoring the same problems here in Ireland? I believe the problem of negative equity is not entirely all the fault of the mortgage holders there is percentage of the fault on the lending intuitions as I believe they did not carry out due diligence on all transactions and standards were not enforced. Standard procedures were not adhered to in a lot of cases. We the taxpayers are going to have to face the problem sooner or later with a mass default of mortgages or a mass bailout, a kind of NAMA for homeowners and the Department of Finance knows it but the banks are pussy footing around the problem. This very possibility was discussed to –day on radio one

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