Quarter 1, 2010 – Permanent TSB/ESRI Index crashes 10.3% for Dublin
Today sees the publication of the first Permanent TSB/ESRI QUARTERLY house price index which replaces the old monthly index which was suspended following publication of the December 2009 index because of thin sales. The index published today tells us that the price of residential property has fallen by 4.8% since the end of December 2009 to the end of March 2010, ie an average monthly fall of 1.6%. The indication is that the pace of price falls is easing overall. The average price of a property nationwide is now €204,830. However prices in Dublin crashed 10.3% in the quarter which is worse than the 7.5% fall in Q4, 2009.
The National House Price index stood at 91.0 at the end of March 2010. The last time it was at this level was in November, 2002 when it stood at 91.2. The following shows the index since June 1999 at the end of each quarter (Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec).
The Dublin House Price index stood at 83.0 at the end of March 2010. The last time it was at this level was in June, 2002 when it stood at 83.3. The following shows the index since June 1999 at the end of each quarter (Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec). The average price of a property in Dublin is now €250,872.
The Outside Dublin House Price index stood at 95.9 at the end of March 2010. The last time it was at this level was in March, 2003 when it stood at 96.3. The following shows the index since June 1999 at the end of each quarter (Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec). The average price of a property is now €183,309.
So the key questions : are prices still falling? We don’t know by month but it is certainly the case that prices have continued to fall since December 2009 and the rate of fall between Sep-Dec 2009 (quarter) was 8.5% compared with a fall between Dec 2009 and March 2010 (quarter) of 4.8%.
Extract from article in namawinelake ( click on text)
On the Minister of Finance.
What business does he have telling us that prices are now realistic? What prices is he referring to? On what basis are prices realistic? To whom are they realistic? If prices are realistic does that, as the Independent aver, equate to prices being at the bottom? Maybe but let’s remember that the Minister must also on occasion don the leader’s hat and tell us to cheer up, it will get better and we will rebound and I know that we must believe that.
I wonder whether if the Minister donned the realist’s hat he would believe his own words at this point in time. If the Minister had just spent €54bn of the State’s money on gold, I wouldn’t expect him to say anything other than “buy gold today and get as much of the stuff as you can”. Time will tell.
Spot on, this guy (The Irish Government) has at a stroke become the largest property owner (through his creation of the largest fraud in Irish history NAMA) in Europe if not the world.
I deal in the financial markets on a Daly bases and have done so for the last 15 years, buying stock and selling stock, hedging through options .It is common practice to see an action in the various markets called “pump and dump” this is done with 98% of the time of worthless stock
Large chunks are bought for pennies and the talked up, by analysts who get themselves on to such media channels Fox news, yahoo Finance and cbsmarketwatch and a whole host of other news outlets ,pumping the message that this is the time to buy this sh**
This of course is precisely what Lenihan is now trying to do, talk up the stock (Property) (mostly worthless stock)
The last time a Minster from this Government told people to buy property, (Berti Ahern) He said that if you were not getting into property now you were a fool, we all know what happened then!
I have over the years bought and sold property and always kept to a few rules when ,buying as there is only one rule when selling and that is sell at a profit.
find out what rent you would get for the property
Let’s say you will be getting 800 euro per month, and that rents are stable and not going down. This would then give an annual rent of 9,600:00 Euros
Multiply this figure by 10, this gives you 96,000.000:00Euros .This is the maximum you should pay for this building period!
Why 10? , because this is the highest interest rates are likely to go. And with this system you will always get someone to rent and thus pay the mortgage.
- Do not listen to the estate agent with regards to a price for the property; His or her interest is completely different to yours.
Ballpark value of average property is dependent on availability of credit from the banks
And location .values can be arrived so
The average working wage is currently 28,000:00 Euro and I believe falling because of the government’s income tax measures to pay off the huge bailout of the banks and their cronies in the Building industry.
The stated policy of the Banks is to give only two and a half times salary and that is with conditions attached
So 28,000:00 X 2.5 = 70,000:00 Walla, average price one should pay for a property in Ireland
This formula works all over Europe (Germany, France etc)
So based on these figures we are nowhere near the bottom ,with 500,00 on the dole and approx 56,000 leaving the country, approx 23,000 young students leaving as well who do you think is going to buy all 300,000 empty properties around the country??