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Some observations on NTMA & NAMA statements to the Oireachtas Committee

Oireachtas

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Dr.Constantin Gurdgiev has posted a superb article on the statements issued by
NAMA and the NTMA to the Oireachtas committee last week I would highly
recommend that everybody  take the time and read it in full at source.

By Dr.Constantin Gurdgiev

 I was going over the statements issued by NTMA and NAMA to the Oireachtas
Committee last week and was struck by some rather interesting
bits…

Let’s start with the Statement by John Corrigan, Chief Executive
NTMA, to the Joint Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, 9
September 2011:

“The banking stress tests carried out by the Central Bank
in the first quarter of 2011 quantified the additional capital support required
by the banking sector at €24 billion. The NTMA Banking Unit has worked very hard
to minimise the amount of this additional capital to be provided by the
taxpayer. Through initiatives like burden sharing with the junior bondholders
and the sourcing of private capital for Bank of Ireland, the net amount of this
capital provided by the State is now expected to be around €16.5 billion. The
savings generated can be redirected to funding the day-to-day operation of the
country.”
Can Mr Corrigan explain this: as of August 1, 2011, the State
has injected (under PCAR/PLAR allocations) €17.292bn (here)
according to DofF note. That €792mln difference is not exactly a
pittance…
Oh, and while we are on the issue of being accurate –
PCAR/PLAR capital allocations are designed to deliver capital & liquidity
cushions for the period 2011-2013. Not a trivial issue, mind you, especially
since Mr Corrigan repeatedly relies on PCAR/PLAR recapitalization exercise as a
definitive (aka permanent) line in the sand on banking crisis.
Now, as to the “savings can be redirected to funding the day-to-day operation of the
country” – that is pure rhetoric, sir, isn’t it? Mr Corrigan himself shows that it is.

Please read full article at source here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/

Retail Sales and Consumer Confidence: July (By Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev )

By Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev

In the previous post, we looked at the latest data on retail sales for Ireland
for July 2011 (here).
Now, let’s update the data for retail sales and consumer confidence.

Per  ESRI latest data, consumer confidence in Ireland dropped from 56.3 in June 2011
to 55.9 in July, with 3mo moving average down to 57.2 in July from 57.9 in June.

full article here :http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2011/08/29082011-retail-sales-and-consumer.html

Comment:

Another excellent presentation of facts !

With the government in full denial that the economy is free fall,
maybe now these figures might give them a wakeup call. Austerity doesn’t work
because if it did, after three years we should be booming by now! The government
are about to announce another round of Austerity measures and thus tighten the
tap of credit and economic activity .Just where do they expect economic growth
to come from when the very consumers they are relying on are on their knees and
swimming in an ocean of debt ?

Should the transfer of Anglo’s remaining NAMA tranches be put on hold ?

from source http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/author/namawinelake/

Should the transfer of Anglo’s remaining NAMA tranches be put on hold pending clarification of Anglo’s total costs?
namawinelake | August 27, 2010 at 10:15 am
Anglo has transferred a cumulative total of €16bn of its NAMA-bound loans in tranches 1 and 2, leaving an estimated €20bn in its remaining tranches if the estimates in NAMA’s revised Business Plan and accompanying tranche 2 detail are correct (what introduces some doubt is the claim two weeks ago by the Anglo CEO Mike Aynsley that €2-4bn of NAMA-bound loans in the UK and US may be “reclassified” in agreement with NAMA).
If tranches 1 and 2 are anything to go by, NAMA will in future pay Anglo a Long Term Economic Value (LEV) premium of 10-12% of the current market value of the loans. So if €20bn is still valid as the face value of the remaining Anglo loans and they have a current market value of 45% of their face value, then NAMA will be paying €0.9-1.1bn above the current market value of the loans. That is a substantial sum of money to be gifting a bank whose future is being debated as we speak at the EU with a European preliminary view on the future of Anglo due in weeks.
The perpetual murmurs of disquiet about Anglo have grown substantially in volume this week. Standard and Poor’s downgrade of Ireland’s credit rating was predicated in part on their assessment of the increased cost of bailing out Anglo at €35bn. Last week in Beijing the Governor of the Central Bank broke the news that “Anglo may impose a NET [my emphasis] cost to the Government of about €22-€25 billion”. A net cost of course could be a gross cost of €35bn with €10bn recouped over time (eg through sale of a government stake in Anglo’s Newbank, redemption of NAMA bonds at face value rather than the accounting value which might assume a large discount). Trinity College economics professor Constantin Gurdgiev repeated his view that Anglo could incur losses of “€33bn in mid-range case, rising to €38.6bn in the worst case scenario”. It is not clear if these losses equate to a net cost to the State as there may already be provisions for these losses and Anglo has a (small) capital base. Today in the Irish Times, former Ulster Bank chief economist Pat McArdle suggests that, in an attempt to improve Ireland’s credit rating “we could try to give greater certainty regarding the Anglo bailout cost, possibly by postponing all other transfers to Nama until Anglo is taken care of.” Other calls this week came from the domestic politics (FG’s Finance spokesman, Michael Noonan calling for a debate at balance sheet level to assess the different options for Anglo) and the Financial Times editorial which today says “it is time to staunch the bleeding. As Irish state guarantees near their expiry date, some banks will not be able to refinance their balances. The government should prepare insolvent banks for forced debt-for-equity swaps, which would instantly recapitalise the banks in question and cap the government’s exposure”. This blog has expressed concerns about the non-NAMA losses at Anglo and whether these are being realistically assessed at present.
Last weekend NAMA paid Anglo a LEV premium of €270m on its latest tranche of loans, a considerable gifted sum in normal times but small in comparison with the expected €1bn of LEV premiums on the remainder of Anglo’s NAMA loan book. Has the tipping point now come whereby Anglo’s future is consensually decided (consensus impedes speed of action but the sums involved have grown to state of war proportions for the Irish state)? And until Anglo’s costs are clarified, should NAMA put the transfer of future loans on hold as these future transfers will involve the State paying substantial sums in excess of the true value of the loans.

Comment:

We did not have to wait for the past 18 months to expire to suddenly find out that NAMA was going to end up paying way over the odds for the various toxic assets from the Banks, never mind the Crap it was getting from ANGLO IRISH BANK
The simple fact is that from the start we the ordinary Joe soaps could smell that a sweetheart deal has been done by the Fianna Fail Government with the establishment of what is now openly been acknowledged as the largest bail out in Irish corporate history and all for the benefit for the golden circle, the chosen few, the cronies and leaches and hangers-on of the Fianna Fail party

This is now seen as a fraudulent transfer of wealth from the citizens of Ireland to a group of irresponsible gamblers, with the help of economic traitors within the government and a totally incompetent regulatory authority that at this stage one must ask if it was designed to be so, in order to facilitate this fraud in the first place !

It is the duty of every citizen to make sure that the next tranche 3 of toxic loans from Anglo-Irish Bank should not take place and indeed an independent international enquire should be set up to investigate exactly who were the beneficiaries of the billions that have already gone into this toxic Toilet, who was responsible for the approval ludicrous high valuations put on these worthless toxic assets and whether there was a conflict of interest at any level
The Fraudulent actions of Government ministers to be exposed and all individuals brought before the courts and jailed on convictions, no golden handshakes or beefed up pensions to be paid out to any individuals found to have felicitated in the cover-up of fraudulent actions or helped to hide relevant information that would have expose this monstrous fraud on the Irish taxpayers
This continued drip ,drip feed of lies must be stopped and the truth must be put before the people
In the form of a general election or a referendum on the issue
I call on all the opposition parties to declare that they will not honour any of the fraudulent guarantees given to the international bondholders by way of an extended government guarantee given in the first place without the consent of the Irish people
I dispute the authority of any government to place me and the hundreds of thousands of its citizens into a kind of financial enslavement to corrupt financial institutions that then are enabled to legally rob me of my family home, my savings, and my prosperity as a consequence of their corrupt practices.
As a result of the establishment of NAMA the countries financial institutions have effectively sucked dry the financial resources of the country for the next generation.
Thus robbing me and the majority of the countries citizens the necessary means to independently provide for their family’s and so forcing families to become dependent on the state for handouts
These actions are a clear breach of the rights guaranteed to every citizen of Ireland by the Irish constitution (see PDF Here Constitution of Ireland) and so renders the establishment of NAMA illegal without first haven put it to a referendum to the citizens of Ireland
Please stand up for our constitutional rights , get active and  put an end to this  madness

We are been lied to by the Central Bank and the CSO

I see California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger declared a state of emergency over the state’s finances on Wednesday last , raising pressure on lawmakers to negotiate a state budget that is more than a month overdue and will need to close a $19 billion shortfall.
The deficit is 22 percent of the $85 billion general fund budget the governor signed last July for the fiscal year that ended in June, highlighting how the steep drop in California’s revenue due to recession, the housing slump, financial market turmoil and high unemployment have slashed its personal income tax collection.
So far I could be talking about Ireland but for one vital difference Schwarzenegger does not dance around the issues, he can’t afford to because of the effectiveness of the opposition. The fiscal facts are made known to all political parties and they have to come up with real solutions or face the people who are notoriously unforgiving
The yanks have no time for waffelers, gombeenmen and crooks unlike here in Ireland we are it seems are to be saddled with them !
I am indebted to Dr.Constantin Gurdgiev for having provided this excellent article on the subject
We are not been told the full facts of our financial situation and a lot more pain is on the way
We are been lied to by the Central Bank and the CSO who have a vested interest in talking up our economy

Thankfully we live in the age of the Internet and the real figures cannot be kept hidden from the people

Source http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/
Last week the State of California declared official emergency in relation to its fiscal shortfall. The problem, you see, is that torn between various vested interests, California’s legislature is unable to approve a new budget for 2011. The State deficit is currently running at $19bn, which represents 22% of the general budget fund. As a part of emergency declaration, Governor Schwarzenegger ordered three days off without pay per month beginning in August for tens of thousands of state employees to preserve the state’s cash to pay its debt, and for essential services. Now, 3 days out of each month represents roughly speaking a 14% straight cut across all lines of wages, pensions liabilities, overtime etc. A bit more dramatic than Irish Government 2-year old programme of cutting PS pay by an average of 5-7%.

May be the depth of California’s crisis is that much (say 2.5 times?) deeper than the fiscal crisis in Ireland?

Well, let’s compare, shall we? To do so, I took budgetary projections (latest available) for California and Ireland and put them side by side. I computed the extent of expected and planned deficits in both locations as a share of the net Government expenditure.
It turns out that in its state of emergency, ‘insolvent’ California is not 2-3 times worse off than Ireland. It is the ‘turning the corner’ Ireland that looks 1.5 times worse off than California. And not just now – all the way through the next 4 years.

So California – its Governor and Legislature – are at the very least trying to work through the summer to hammer out some sort of a resolution. Our own legislators and Government are out to enjoy a spot of recreation. And why not, you may ask, if the economy has finally turned the corner… err… sort of… for the 15th time since May 2009 that is…

Dr. Constantin GurdgievWhat might have been!

News Talk explors the NAMA scam

This is an excellent analysis of the financial quagmire
given by Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev,we now find ourselves in and it is people of this calibre we need in government
The Good Doctor would have my vote for Finance Minster anytime.

If your not depressed allready ,you will be after you looked at this
sorry!

Reckless expectations, not competition

 

This is a lengthy post – to reflect the importance of the issue at hand. And it is based largely on data from Professor Brian Lucey, with my added analysis .

The proposition that this post is proving is the following one:

Far from being harmed by competition from foreign lenders, Irish banking sector has suffered from its own disease of reckless lending. In fact, competition in Irish banking remains remarkably close (although below) European average and is acting as a stabilizing force in the markets relative to other factors.

I always found the argument that ‘too much competition in banking was the driver of excessive lending’ to be an economically illiterate one. Even though this view has been professed by some of my most esteemed colleagues in economics.

In theory, competition acts to lower margins in the sector, and since it takes time to build up competitive pressure, the sectors that are facing competition are characterized by stable, established players. In other words, in most cases, sectors with a lot of competition are older, mature ones. This fact is even more pronounced if entry into the sector is associated with significant capital cost requirements. Banking – in particular run of the mill, non-innovative traditional type – is the case in point everywhere in the world.

As competition drives margins down, making quick buck becomes impossible. You can’t hope to write a few high margin, high risk loans and reap huge returns. So firms in highly competitive sectors compete against each other on the basis of longer term strategies that are more stable and prudent. Deploying virtually commoditized services or products to larger numbers of population. Reputation and ever-increasing efficiencies in operations become the driving factors of every surviving firm’s success. And these promote longer term stability of the sector.

Coase’s famous proposition about transaction costs provides a basis for such a corollary.

This means that in the case of Irish banking during the last decade, if competition was indeed driving down the margins in lending (as our stockbrokers, the Government and policy analysts ardently argue today), then the following should have happened.

  1. Banks should have become more prudent over time in lending and risk pricing,
  2. There should have been broader diversification of the banks lending portfolia, with the bulk of new loans concentrating in the areas relating directly to depositor base – corporate and household lending, and a hefty fringe of higher-margin inter-mediation lending to financial institutions, and
  3. Banks would be seeking to ‘bundle’ more services to differentiate from competitors and enhance margins.

In Ireland, of course, during the alleged period of ‘harmful competition’ exactly the opposite took place. Let me use Prof Brian Lucey’s data (with added analysis from myself) to show you the facts.

Firstly, Irish banks became less prudent in lending – as exemplified by falling loans approvals criteria, and by rising LTVs:

Lending to private sector as % of GDP was ca 50% in 1995, reaching 100% in 1998 and rising to 300% in 2009Vast increases in lending to developers: in 1997 there were €10bn lent out to developers against €20bn in mortgages; in 2008 these figures were €110bn and €140bn respectivelyOver the time when lending to private sector rose 600%, mortgages lending rose 550%, our GDP rose by 75%

Secondly, banks reduced their assets and liabilities diversification (charts 1-3 below) setting themselves up for a massive rise in asymmetric risk exposures. .

On the funding side, out went customers deposits, in came banks deposits, foreign deposits and bonds and Irish bond s

Full article link http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2010/03/economics-21032010-reckless.html

articel by  Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev

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