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Archive for the ‘Dow Transports’ Category

Quarterly Market Brief & Stock Pick from Wealthbuilder.ie

Wealthbuilder.ie

On the 21st. May we wrote the following:

“Due to lower highs and lower lows on both the Dow Industrials and Dow Transports there is

now a change of trend in existence in the markets. How long this correction will continue no

one can be sure. A bounce can be expected at any time due to the fact that the market is

terribly oversold based on Stochastics and the McClennan Summation Index. However, I do

not think we have seen support lows in place yet. What is the reason for this capitulation? As

mentioned in my last brief I believed the “flash crash” of the 6th. May mortally wounded all

indices from a technical pointy of view. It will take some time, probably the whole summer,

before some degree of confidence is restored.”

full report in PDF here Wealthbuilder_Quarterly_Brief

Pirates Of The ‘Carry-On-Regardless’

Posted by jayfromeire on Mar 25th, 2010 and filed under Economic Crisis, International. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback to this entry from your site


William K. Black wrote a book in 2005 titled “The Best Way to Rob a Bank is to Own One” where he outlined the fraud and corruption at the highest levels of international banking.                   

What we are seeing now in the light of massive bonuses, involving billions of Euro, Dollars and Pounds, being handed out to executives and lower level employees, is simply the same culture of fraud and corruption which has seeped down to the lower levels of an industry which has utterly disregarded any pretence of moral conscience.       

           
 

This industry has deliberately plunged the world and the majority of ordinary people into a period of extreme doubts and anxieties over the future of themselves, their children and future generations.        

The climate of greed in this industry has undeniably never changed. Whilst the international bankers have absconded with the wealth of nations, their cronies in subsidiary banks, where ordinary people’s financial security is crucial, are now doing the same. These lower level parasites continue to coerce governments into passing legislation, in Ireland’s case, NAMA – (Never Any Money Again).                   

This is happening across the developed world and allows governments, without the consent of its citizens, to literally tax working people to pay for the illegal and corrupt practices of a criminal cabal responsible for the state of the world today.                    

This is piracy of the highest order, and the ordinary people paying for this, for generations to come, will be born into a financial bondage to the coming world state which amounts to nothing less than SLAVERY.               

We are being financially raped by the banking elite who simply demand that our government pass the very legislation which will condemn the citizens to a future of indentured servitude. We, the taxpayers, will have to cough up our last cent to the parasites of finance to furnish their lavish lifestyles of champagne parties and fancy yachts, whilst we are left struggling to make ends meet.                 

The government tells us we need to get through this current financial crisis together, by pulling together don’t you know, whilst they maintain their positions of power over us and live the highlife with their banker and building developer buddies. They don’t take responsibility for, or account to the public for, the catastrophe they’ve inflicted on families and businesses in this country. At the same time they try to justify their uselessness and inflated salaries, presumably in line with their inflated egos and ludicrous self belief in their value to society, whilst at the same time maintaining their massive expense accounts and lavish pension arrangements which nobody else in the country is entitled to.

machholz responce 

Careful what you ask for!

With the cries of change the government getting louder, I caution and ask the question will we be any better off?

Make no mistake I want to have a change of government and I want to jail All the corrupt Basta***

Responsible for the mess we are now in.

What exactly will the new government do about the political gangsters responsible for the mess we are now in?

see posting

The Economist comments

 

Mar 17th 2010, 15:50 by R.A. | WASHINGTON

PAUL KRUGMAN continues to push back against my criticism of his get-tough approach to the Chinese dollar peg. New posts on the subject are here, and here. The first concerns the question of how much of the world is in a liquidity trap, which is important because:

We’re currently living in a world in which both central banks and governments are unable or unwilling to pursue sufficiently expansionary policies to eliminate mass unemployment; so it’s a paradox of thrift world, in which anyone who tries to save more reduces demand, reduces employment, and – because investment responds to excess capacity – ends up actually reducing investment. By exporting savings to the rest of the world, via an artificial current account surplus, China is making all of us poorer.

Read more on this link http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2010/03/chinas_currency_3?source=hptextfeature

It may be the right direction

 

Markets nosedived on Thursday when Barack Obama set out broad new measures on financial regulation. The most significant of them is banning deposit-taking banks from proprietary trading that is “unrelated to serving customers”. This activity has generated politically incendiary profits for banks and bonuses for bankers.

The timing was political: the president spoke on the day that Goldman Sachs announced fourth-quarter earnings of $4.95bn. Those of a more populist nature than Mr Obama – both on the left and on the right – will say that he comes late to the game.

The Recession is not over.  

Economists may see the recession as being over, but the man on the street does not. Roughly 60% of the public believes the recession still has a way to go, a NBC/Wall Street Journal poll reported last October. Even those who have not suffered know someone—a friend, a neighbor, a family member—who is being hurt. Two in three say the rally in the stock market has not changed their views.

The uptrend is broken.
— The uptrend in the S&P 500 Index was broken this week.  There is a lot of backpedaling in Washington, which was all too ready to claim success as the market was rising, but asked us to ignore the last two day decline.

The uptrend, which was technically “on the edge” since early December, has finally lost what is called trend support.  Look for much lower prices ahead.


Obama’s proposals strengthened Treasuries.

Treasuries headed for a third weekly gain as speculation that President Barack Obama’s bank- regulation plans will crimp economic growth weakened equities and added to demand for fixed-income securities.  The yield on the 10-year note reached its lowest in a month after the Obama administration yesterday proposed to limit the size and trading activities of financial institutions as a way to prevent another systemic meltdown. The Treasury is scheduled to sell $118 billion in notes next week.

Gold’s decline ready to resume?

Gold may decline as a rebounding dollar curbs demand for the metal as an alternative investment, a survey showed.

Twelve of 17 traders, investors and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, or 71 percent, said bullion would fall next week. Four forecast higher prices and one was neutral. Gold for delivery in February was down 2.9 percent for this week at $1,097.70 an ounce at noon in New York yesterday.

The Nikkei turns south.

— Japanese stocks slumped the most since November after the U.S. proposed to reduce risk-taking at banks and concern mounted that China will raise interest rates to curb inflation. The Nikkei 225 fell 2.6 percent to close at 10,590.55 in Tokyo, almost erasing this year’s gain. The broader Topix index slid 1.6 percent to 940.94, with six times as many stocks declining as advancing. Both gauges lost the most since Nov. 27.

Shanghai isn’t immune to troubles, either.

Investors pulled $348 million from China equity funds last week, the biggest outflow in 18 weeks, on concern China’s moves to cool its economy will slow growth, according to EPFR Global.     Chinese stocks fell since the government this month started tightening monetary policy to curb record loan growth and prevent bubbles in the nation’s property and stock markets.  Technically, the Shanghai Index violated a potential Head and Shoulders formation, which calls for a large decline.  The bubble may be popped.

The dollar is showing bullish tendencies.

The dollar is poised for an upside breakout.  The “line in the sand” in red is a technical pattern called a neckline of an inverted Head and Shoulders pattern.  Tuesday’s election in Massachusetts is considered a change in the outlook of Washington to “dollar friendly.”    In the past, Washington talked a good talk, but their actions were quite destructive to the dollar.  The outlook may have reversed.

A safety net hides the risk of bank failure.

 — There is a fascinating phenomenon that occurs in the banking system when capital is running short.  At least, this was the case before the government decided to be the ultimate financial backup for the entire banking structure of our country.  Places like Washington Mutual or Countrywide were offering stellar rates on various savings vehicles only days before their demise.  How can this be?  Well for one, banks are allowed to chase public capital and realize that the public will put money into a bank so long as the FDIC backs up the bank.  Unfortunately, if the bank fails the FDIC only covers your principal, not interest.

The chart shows Gasoline prices dropping faster than at the pump.

 The Energy Information Agency weekly report suggests, “The U.S. average price for regular gasoline dropped a penny to $2.74 per gallon, $0.89 higher than the average a year ago. On a regional basis, price changes were mixed. The East Coast price of $2.75 per gallon moved up less than a penny, while the price in the Rocky Mountains jumped up four cents to $2.62 per gallon. The price on the Gulf Coast was essentially unchanged at $2.62 per gallon. Prices in the Midwest and on the West Coast dropped, moving down over a penny on the West Coast to $2.95 per gallon and dropping nearly five cents to $2.68 per gallon in the Midwest.”

Frigid weather keeps NatGas prices high.

The Energy Information Agency’s Natural Gas Weekly Update reports, “As the extreme cold left much of the lower 48 States this week, natural gas demand for space heating and as a fuel for electric power plants fell precipitously. Compared with the prior report week, U.S. natural gas average daily demand decreased about 25 percent from 106 Bcf to 79 Bcf, according to Bentek Energy LLC. Lower demand led to widespread declines in prices that were generally less than 5 percent.”

Joseph Stiglitz: ‘We’re More Strict With Our Poor Than With Our Banks’

During the economic turmoil of the last few years, Nobel Prize-winning economist and Columbia University professor “ersatz capitalism” in America. He has also repeatedly called for a second round of fiscal stimulus to support struggling Americans.  Read full article here.
Joseph Stiglitz has been one of the most strident and incisive critics of the historic bailout of the banking sector.

Never one to mince words, Stiglitz, who served as the Chief Economist at the World Bank and on President Clinton’s Council of Economic Advisers, has said the meltdown has resulted in a kind of

Is The U.S. Economy Being Tanked By Mistake or By Intent?

Should American bankers be let off the hook because they self-declare, before an investigational panel, that the failure of their newly invented risk swaps and other highly leveraged investment schemes was simply due to “mistakes”? Not malfeasance – just every-day mistakes? Bankers just fell asleep at the helm at a critical juncture in American history. Is that what we are being led to believe?

Oh well, it’s just 18 million American homes that now lay empty in the wake of unprecedented foreclosures, and the bankers have collected obscene bonuses for reckless lending of their depositors'(and taxpayers’) money. It’s like the captain and crew of a ship saying, not to worry, twenty-percent of the passengers were lost overboard, but this was due to unavoidable mistakes, and then being rewarded with bonuses when they reach port.

for more information follow link http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/cherniawski/2010/0122.html
source :by Anthony Cherniawski, The Practical Investor, LLC | Janury 22, 2010

Market Up-Date January 2010

Quarterly Market Brief & Stock Pick

Sent to me by  Chris  at  www.wealthbuilder.ie

 
 

The market is currently trying to find its bearings after the spectacular run up since March 2009.

 
 

On a weekly chart the Dow Industrials and Dow Transports both indicate a definite technical consolidation line being formed. The longer the averages remain in their respective November and December ranges the more the the market will discount the March rise and focus on the new support point. According to Hamilton the greater the duration of this “line of consolidation” the more significant the direction of the trend on “breakout.” On probability the market will move North, once the earnings season indicates there are no major surprises in the offing. However, how quickly the averages approach previous highs is anyones guess but price movement is bound to be choppy due to all of the following:

 
 

A:              Will future earnings eventually justify such rich valuations.

B:              When rates start rising will the hikes be benign or aggressive due to explosive inflation.

C:              Will the Real Estate, Financial & Banking sectors “tank” on rate hikes.

D:              When will unemployment stabilise and improve.

E:              Has the market discounted tax hikes.

 
 

As always the market must try to discount such uncertainty but given the mix I see above average risk in the martket given the weak underlying fundamentals.Therefore I am happy to advise clients to hold onto their fabulous 2009 gains and await a clearer economic tablet or a powerful technical indicator.

 
 

Some folk recommend Gold or Silver but again I see major institutional manipulation which makes a traders life a misery. Trading gold makes good fundamental sense but in actuality the technical picture has been muddied by paper gold in the form of ETFs, so I have moved on.

 
 

The situation since March provides all the emanations that TARP funds found a home in equities. In other words the fix was in. The wonderful gains thus far have given “banks” great profits to repay congress borrowed funds. I use the word bank with great delicacy because they are in effect derivitave traders. For this reason the TARP funds were not used to “stimulate” the real economy and therefore cannot be found in credit card account funding or car finance deals or property mortgages or business overdrafts (no that would be too much work and risk). The funds are in hyper leveraged instruments, cross purchased. Thus this is a synthetic bull run, hence the spectacular market rise.
The sooner congress realises this the sooner the true American economy can regenerate. When will it be accepted in honour and faith that the key to recovery was, is, and will be small enterprise. History educates that small entrepreneurs create 80% of ALL NEW JOBS in America. Support them and all will go well.
Ignore them and a double dip
correction will prove inevitable due
to sustained high unemployment.

 
 

I don’t know if any of you noticed but over the Christmas, during a 7 day period, short term interest rates shot up 600% from .01% to .07% and long term rates jumped 25%. In the first days of the new year they were pulled back but short rates are sill up 200%.  This volality indicates the fact that the FED has a major job on its hands holding the “balanced quantatitative easing” story together. A lot is riding on the holding of rates down and if anyone drops the PR ball there will be hell to pay. Ergo the market is risky until the jobs situation shows definite unmanipulated improvement.

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

Stock Pick:

RDSA: Royal Dutch Shell plc.

 
 

Royal Dutch has regained about half of the ground lost since their 2008 peak, supported by a partial recovery in oil prices.

 
 

The refining, chemicals and natural gas lines have not snapped back as quickly as the oil pumpimg business.
However, efficiency measures have been implemented and Shell is targeting a return to growth before too long.

 
 

Expansion is on track for the oil and gas exploration business in 2011, when a couple of extra large gas projects in Qatar are due to come on stream.
These top quality ADRs should appeal to conservative investors. While the issue is untimely strong dividend income underpins the good long-term total return potential that we envision.

 
 

Fundamentals:

Dividend Yield:                                  5.5%

Financial strength:              A++

PE Ratio:                            11.0

Return On Cap:                            12.5%             

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