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Quarterly Market Brief & Stock Pick from Wealthbuilder.ie


On the 21st. May we wrote the following:

“Due to lower highs and lower lows on both the Dow Industrials and Dow Transports there is

now a change of trend in existence in the markets. How long this correction will continue no

one can be sure. A bounce can be expected at any time due to the fact that the market is

terribly oversold based on Stochastics and the McClennan Summation Index. However, I do

not think we have seen support lows in place yet. What is the reason for this capitulation? As

mentioned in my last brief I believed the “flash crash” of the 6th. May mortally wounded all

indices from a technical pointy of view. It will take some time, probably the whole summer,

before some degree of confidence is restored.”

full report in PDF here Wealthbuilder_Quarterly_Brief

Dow Jones Transport Index

History of the Dow Jones Transports Index

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is the best-known U.S. stock index, but not the oldest. The Dow Jones Transportation Average has that honor.

The first Dow Jones stock index, assembled in 1884 by Charles H. Dow, co-founder of Dow Jones & Company, was composed of nine railroads, including the New York Central and Union Pacific, and two non-rails, Pacific Mail Steamship and Western Union. That was the ancestor of today’s transportation average.

The iron horse powered the U.S. economy in the late 19th century. “The really strong companies at that time were primarily railroads,” says Richard Stillman, professor emeritus of the University of New Orleans.

It wasn’t until 1896 that the Dow Jones Industrial Average appeared. The same year, Mr. Dow published a list of 20 “active” stocks, 18 of which were rails-the direct predecessor of the transportation average. On Sept. 8, 1896, it stood at 48.55.

Over the years, railroads such as Union Pacific (the only remaining original stock) have been joined in the average by the likes of Delta Air Lines, Federal Express and Ryder System.

The story of the rails in this century is one of pride, fall and partial revival. In 1916, 254,000 miles of rail lines crisscrossed the country, nearly twice the current figure. But regulation of prices and “featherbedding” by unions stunted railroads, says Richard Sylla, an economic historian at New York University. The stagnant industry was pounded by competition from trucks, revitalized waterways and, finally, airplanes.

According to Professor Sylla, the Pennsylvania Railroad was the country’s biggest corporation in the 1870s. A century later, its descendant, Penn Central, filed for bankruptcy.

Since 1980, deregulation has brought a revival of sorts. Railroad employment has fallen nearly 60 percent, but ton-miles shipped and the industry’s net income have soared.

Dow Theory

An elaborate analytical system dubbed Dow Theory (so named by people who followed Mr. Dow, but not by Mr. Dow himself) holds that the Dow Jones Transportation Average must “confirm” the movement of the industrial average for a market trend to have staying power. If the industrials reach a new high, the transports would need to reach a new high to “confirm” the broad trend. The trend reverses when both averages experience sharp downturns at around the same time. If they diverge for example, if the industrial average keeps climbing while the transports decline watch out!

The underlying fundamentals of the theory hold that the industrials make and the transports take. If the transports aren’t taking what the industrials are making, it portends economic weakness and market problems, Dow Theorists maintain.

For more information  you might like to look in on  www.wealthbuilder.ie

Attached is the latest information on the US ecomomy

Rail+Time+Indicators+May+2010 PDF

Rail Time Indicators is a non-technical summary of many of the key economic indicators

potentially of interest to U.S. freight railroads. It is issued monthly free of charge by the

Policy and Economics Department of the Association of American Railroads

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