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Archive for the ‘David McWilliams blog posting’ Category

We don’t have an economic policy, it’s all just a big bluff

 

David Mc Williams is like a lonely voice of logic in the wilderness

The powers that be want shut of him and wish he up sticks and goes away!

The hard hitting questions and the overwhelming logic to his solutions speak for themselves

Every concerned citizen should read this latest article which exposes our present political elite and their lies

This country is in such need of a jolt of reality and Mr. David McWilliams should be congratulated on his dedication and persistence in bringing the real truth to the people of Ireland and I only hope he is not too late! Is the message getting true??

Machholz

 

When we get real, we will see that Anglo’s debts are likely to be in the region of €36bn — or roughly 50pc of its loan book of €72bn. As the bond market indicated yesterday, we are clearly running out of time, and contrary to the minister’s assurances, no one thinks the €25bn bailout of Anglo is “manageable”. This cavalier attitude to finance is frightening away proper investors. This is exactly how the Greek crisis started and we know how that ended.

The Government is bluffing with our future, and by extending the guarantee yesterday it is simply showing all the signs of panic, rather than firm financial management

By David Mc Williams

full article http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2010/09/08/we-dont-have-an-economic-policy-its-all-just-a-big-bluff

Who’s right ,Eurpoe or The USA ??

 

By Brian Parkin and Tony Czuczka


June 7 (Bloomberg) — Chancellor Angela Merkel‘s Cabinet is meeting to tie up a “decisive” round of budget cuts that will shape government policy for years to come, fueling disagreement with U.S. officials who favor measures to step up growth.

Ministers met for 11 hours until early today to identify potential savings of 10 billion euros ($12 billion) a year, after Merkel said Europe’s debt crisis underscores the need for budget tightening to ensure the euro’s stability. A large part of the cuts were agreed overnight, a government official who spoke on customary condition of anonymity said by phone. Talks resumed at 9 a.m. Berlin time.

“It’s not exaggerated to say that this Cabinet meeting will give important direction for Germany in coming years, years that will be decisive,” Merkel told reporters yesterday before ministers met in the Chancellery. She is scheduled to hold talks with French President Nicolas Sarkozy in Berlin later today.

Merkel’s government is reining in its deficit and urging fellow euro-region states to do likewise to thwart a sovereign- debt crisis. The savings risk further alienating voters angry at Germany’s 148 billion-euro share of a European plan to backstop the euro and clash with a June 5 call by Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner for “stronger domestic demand growth” in European countries like Germany that have trade surpluses.

At stake for Merkel is “the credibility of Germany as one of the countries forcing the others to start fiscal tightening,” Juergen Michels, chief euro-area economist at Citigroup Inc. in London, said in a phone interview on June 4. “It’s a very fine line between fiscal tightening and not choking off the economy.”

Bund Yield Record

German 10-year bunds rose, pushing the yield down to a record low today, as concern the debt crisis may spread boosted demand for the perceived safety of the 16-nation currency’s benchmark securities. The yield fell three basis points to 2.55 percent as of 8:52 a.m. in London. It reached 2.548 percent, according to Bloomberg generic data, the lowest since at least 1989, the year the Berlin Wall fell. The euro fell 0.2 percent to $1.1940 at 10:49 a.m. in Frankfurt.

Tax increases, cuts in welfare and jobless benefits and the loss of about 10,000 civil service posts are among the German measures being considered, Deutsche Presse-Agentur reported, citing unnamed government sources. Utilities face 2.3 billion euros in higher taxes if parliament agrees to extend the running time of German nuclear-power plants, the news agency said.

‘No Taboos’

The Defense Ministry said last week there are “no taboos” when it comes to potential savings. Merkel’s Cabinet seeks to cut almost 30 billion euros to 2013, Bild newspaper said June 5, without saying how it got the information.

Germany’s budget deficit is forecast to rise to 5.5 percent of gross domestic product this year. While that’s less than half the 13.6 percent of GDP in Greece last year and smaller than the U.K.’s 11.1 percent for the fiscal year to March 2010, it’s still almost double the European Union’s 3 percent limit.

Germany’s top AAA rating is at risk unless Merkel’s government agrees on deficit cuts and persuades other euro-area nations to do likewise, Kurt Lauk, who heads a business lobby within Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union party, told reporters on June 2. “We’re at a decisive turning point,” he said.

Spain, which lost its top grade from Fitch Ratings last month, has seen government borrowing costs soar to a euro-era record, even after Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero announced the deepest budget cuts in at least three decades.

Roubini on Stimulus

While countries with large debt such as Italy should trim deficits and contain wages, Germany should spend more and raise wages to help fuel demand in the euro area, Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economist who predicted the financial crisis, said in an interview.

“Germany can afford having more stimulus not just this year but next year,” Roubini said June 5 in Trento, Italy.

Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, in an interview en route to a meeting of Group of 20 counterparts including Geithner in Busan, South Korea, said there’s no disagreement “in principle” over the need to reduce deficits, only over the pace at which action is taken.

While “it’s possible that the U.S. could use accelerating growth over time to help them reduce their deficits, in Europe we can’t count on growth alone to mend our fiscal position,” Schaeuble said June 4. “I don’t share the view that reducing deficits and strengthening growth are mutually exclusive.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Brian Parkin in Berlin at bparkin@bloomberg.net; Tony Czuczka in Berlin at aczuczka@bloomberg.net. source http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aVGqrlbamDjE

 

 
May 26, 2010Don’t Doubt Bernanke’s Ability to Create Inflation

With the Dow Jones now down 11% nominally from its high last month, NIA has been getting hundreds of emails and phone calls asking if there is any way we could be wrong about the threat of hyperinflation in the U.S. and if indeed deflation is the real problem we need to be worried about. The names Nouriel Roubini, Robert Prechter, and Harry Dent get mentioned to us a lot, with many NIA members asking why these so-called “experts” believe deflation is in our future.

Roubini, Prechter and Dent have been wrong about the overwhelming majority of their economic forecasts over the past decade. When it comes to their latest predictions about deflation, they will actually be right to some extent. We will see deflation in some assets like stocks and Real Estate, but only when priced in terms of real money – gold and silver. In terms of dollars, prices for pretty much all goods and services are guaranteed to rise dramatically over the next few years. Creating inflation is the only thing in the world Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke knows how to do and is good at.

During the past week, the mainstream media has shifted from saying we are experiencing an “economy recovery” to now saying we are at risk of a “double dip recession”. Nothing fundamentally has changed in our economy. The fact is, the U.S. economy has been in a recession since mid-2000. All government reported positive GDP growth since mid-2000 has been due to nothing but inflation. Our economy should have experienced a depression in 2001 and an even greater one in 2008, but the depression has been temporarily avoided at the expense of an inevitable Hyperinflationary Great Depression down the road.

NIA believes it is impossible for the U.S. to experience price deflation when the Federal Reserve has held interest rates at 0% for the past 17 months. Sure, there will probably be a second wave of mortgage defaults that could cause another round of forced liquidations on Wall Street, but during any future period of forced liquidations, we doubt the U.S. dollar will still be looked at as the “safe haven” it was in 2008/2009. Gold and silver will soon be looked at as the only real safe havens because they are the only assets that provide protection from both a deteriorating economy and massive inflation. Precious metals will decouple from the Dow Jones and we will begin to see gold and silver rise at the same time as the stock market falls.

Bernanke was questioned yesterday following a speech at the Bank of Japan about whether a 4% inflation target would be better than the Fed’s current inflation target of 2%. Bernanke responded that “it would be a very risky transition” if the Fed changed their inflation target, claiming that U.S. inflation expectations are currently “very stable”. (NIA estimates the real rate of U.S. price inflation is already north of 5%.)

Unfortunately, no policymaker in the world is smart enough to accurately control the rate of price inflation through the manipulation of interest rates, and certainly not Bernanke. It’s mind-boggling to us how the mainstream media could believe anything Bernanke says about inflation after how wrong he has been about everything else. Maybe the press has already forgotten that it was Bernanke who in July of 2005 said, “it’s a pretty unlikely possibility” that home prices will decline across the country, “house prices will slow, maybe stabilize but I don’t think it’s going to drive the economy too far from its full employment path”. We are 100% sure that Bernanke will be proven wrong again when it comes to inflation.

The U.S. Dollar Index has rallied from 75 to 87 since December and is approaching its high from March of 2009 of 89. This has given Bernanke the cover to keep interest rates at a record low 0%, but NIA believes Bernanke is misreading these economic signals. When the U.S. Dollar Index reached its high last year of 89, gold was only $900 per ounce. Today, gold is approximately $1,200 per ounce. The fact that gold has held up so strong despite a rapidly rising U.S. Dollar Index, proves that our financial system is getting ready to overdose on excess liquidity. The U.S. Dollar Index has rallied only because it is heavily weighted against the Euro. The Euro is now overdue for a huge bounce, which we believe will send the U.S. dollar crashing while sending gold to new record highs.

It’s not good for us to pay too much attention to short-term volatility in the financial markets. Short-term “noise” often causes investors to second guess what they know is true. In our new documentary ‘Meltup’ (which has now surpassed 441,000 views in 10 days) we said, “If stocks were to see a nominal decline one last time, we will likely see Bernanke shoot up his largest ever dose of quantitative easing, which could turn the current Meltup into hyperinflation.”

We are seeing signs of this coming true already. Washington is now calling for another stimulus. Larry Summers, senior economic adviser to President Obama, has asked Congress to begin drafting a new stimulus bill in an attempt to prevent a “double dip recession”. The proposed size of this new stimulus is so far only $200 billion, much smaller than the last $787 billion stimulus bill. However, we are sure Congress will increase the size of it, especially if stocks continue their nominal decline. The new stimulus bill will likely coincide with trillions of dollars in additional quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve.

Source http://inflation.us/dontdoubtbernanke.html


 

The major difference is that the Americans want to print money and spend

And the Europeans and particular the Germans want to tighten and save and stop waist!

To my mind the most prudent are of course the Europeans but it would suggest that there is a lot more pain heading our way ,with our European partners in contraction mode and the Germans demanding more austerity measures from all the other EU countries I can’t see where the jobs growth will come from

Even when our own incompetent government will be telling that Ireland is now growing again

Without growth in jobs this is just a mirage that soon will fade again.

The Billions that are been poured down the toxic banks toilets will not save or generate jobs

the billions so far have not even stabilized the situation, and with the next phase of the depression now coming down the track at us the government will need to borrow more money to plug even more holes in the toxic Anglo Irish Bank, together with the disaster that is NAMA there is no way we can borrow enough money and remain financial viable as an independent sovereign state !

Somebody please stop this madness

David Mc Williams has a new article ” Kill Anglo to save Ireland” (http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2010/06/07/kill-anglo-to-save-ireland) all independent minded people should take the time to read

We cannot afford to just sit back and allow our sovereign nation disappear in an ocean of debt

we owe it to our children and ourselves .


Euro Crisis or Death by A Thousand Day Trades

 

We in Europe are certainly living in interesting times.

   PDF Document  here   Euro Crisis Or Death By A Thousand Cuts[1]

Labour unrest, collapsing employment, bankrupt public coffers, riots and sovereign debt default.

This all might seem unexpected however in 1995 a former European Union economist Bernard Connolly foretold it all in his classic book “The Rotten Heart of Europe.” Connolly was hounded out of his elite job for telling the truth about the lies and obfuscation about the ERM (Exchange Rate Mechanism), the forerunner of the Euro. He knew that his instincts and training as a professional economist were telling him that the Euro would be a disaster for Nation States yet he was not allowed to articulate his genuine concerns.“As we shall see, in France the long arm of the authoritarian state has pressurized dissident economists and bankers, deployed financial information programmes on international TV channels, threatened securities houses with loss of business if they questioned the official economic line, and shamelessly used state-owned and even private-sector banks, in complete contradiction with their shareholder’s interests and Community law, to support official policy. ……….

The economic profession in Europe organized literally hundreds of conferences, seminars and colloquia to which only conformist speakers were invited; and the Commission’s “research” programmes financed large numbers of economic studies to provide the right results from known believers.”Connolly goes to state the essence of his book:

“My central thesis is that the ERM and the EMU (European Monetary Union, the mechanism with ultimately brought the Euro into technical existence) are not only inefficient but also undemocratic: a danger not only to our wealth but to our freedom and ultimately, our peace.”

As the current crisis unfolds we are just beginning to see the flaws in the Euro system that Connolly foresaw. Under the regime yes we have stable exchange rates between the Euro countries but there is no harmony between the disparate economies that make up Euroland. For example when it comes t0 borrowing “sovereign debt” each country is on its own. This last week Greece had to pay 18% on two year money whereas Germany had to pay only 3% approx. Where Greece has gone Spain, Portugal and Ireland are soon to follow. The technical makeup of the Euro is being brought into the glare of the light of day and business functionaries do not like the weaknesses they see. The idea that the Euro has a “central” bank has thus been exposed as a myth. If the Euro actually had a real central bank the sovereign nations of the European Super State would be able to borrow under its aegis, they cannot.

This means the Euro is not a “currency” as such but in actual fact is an exchange rate mechanism only.

Thus it is a political entity not an economic one. The fact that Germany “cannot assist” Greece in these crises while the Euro burns indicates again that politics and power rules the day not bread and butter and families and jobs. The behavior of Germany is actually frightening in light of the fact that it is the major beneficiary of this artificial exchange mechanism. The Euro is allowing cheap German goods flood.

Europe and explains why it has 200-300 billion Euros of trade surpluses with its economic partners.In a survey last week over 80% of Greeks want to exit the Euro but this voice is not being reported in much the same fashion that Connolly’s concerns were silenced by elite bankers and politicos. However, in 1995 the world was less connected when the Euro mechanism was being set up. Today we have hedge funds connected through Cray computers ready to “play” the markets. As soon as traders realize the Euro is a one way bet they will opt destroy the exchange mechanism because of its exposed failings.

The Emperor has been seen to have no cloths. As sure as night follows day they are going to reap their reward, the same way George Soros reaped his one billion paycheck on the 16th. September 1992 (“Black Friday”) when the bank of England lost 3.4 billion Sterling in one single day defending a flawed exchange link to Euroland. It is my suspicion that Germany sees this as a very real scenario and does not desire to waste its hard won foreign reserves on a “Norman Lamont” (The “Black Friday” chancellor of the British exchequer) type endgame.

All of this would be fascinating if it were purely an academic issue, unfortunately it is not. In Ireland, for example, the country is going through a horrendous economic downturn, one which is being exacerbated by this “currency” crisis. The problem is we now know the Euro is not a real currency and confidence is shot. The end result is lost jobs, non-existent credit, frozen business cash flows, unemployment and emigration. In other words the issues are very, very real. And I am sure it is the same in Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy.

I do hope that the powers that be put their heads together to solve this developing disaster. Bernard Connolly wrote about it 35 years ago so they have had a lot of time to prepare. Let’s hope wisdom prevails and that the lessons Argentina learnt nearly a decade ago can be used. In that crisis, when she had to break the link to the Dollar (a la our Euro) she allowed devaluation but inspiringly its leaders also insisted the devaluation of all Dollar loans. In doing so the elite realized that they had only two options.

Social catastrophe or neutered bankers. They took on the bankers and substantially diminished the debt. Thus they saved their nation.

Accordingly, the so called “PIIGS” countries; Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain, should form a league based on national economic restructure. This league should form a common secretariat with the purpose of negotiating an exit from the Euro and allowing their currencies to “float” once more. This will immediately allow their economies to become competitive again without widespread deflation. Most importantly all Euro loans must be devalued to a new negotiated exchange conversion, as per the Argentinean model. This action will be greatly resisted by Euro bankers. This is why no one European nation could go this route alone. But together in league they have a chance.

I hope Irish leaders realize the difficulty we are in and have the intelligence and wisdom to formulate the type of solution mentioned. If such leadership was shown by Ireland perhaps the other heads in Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain would have the courage to join with their fellow European brothers and sisters and save their nations from certain financial destruction. Yes we truly are living in interesting times.

source  thanks to chris at  www.wealthbuilder.ie

Reference: “The Rotten Heart of Europe”

Bernard Connolly

Faber & Faber, London, 1995.

The Lunacy of NAMA

In response to David Mc Williams excellent new article

Lunacy of NAMA bailout will tip us over the edge

With all the western countries now carrying huge debts

I have to question who exactly is behind the buying all this debt?

I mean where do they get all this money?

I know that the US is printing so many Dollars that the real value of the dollar is now probably only worth less than a cent!

And the Euro, well just read the newspapers!

Total EU External Debt 18,302,319.trillion $

Total US External Debt 13,703,567.trillion $

These mountains of debt cannot be repaid and the markets will have to wake up to this fact soon or later!

There isn’t enough gold in the ground to cover these vast amounts of debt

The only thing that is keeping the financial markets stable is the use of obscure derivatives tools, but these are just promissory notes with nothing behind them, something

Like the emperor with no clothes syndrome.

Which brings us to another question and that is why is gold so cheap!

It should be somewhere around 6,000 an ounce at least.

Somewhere, sometime the market will face up to this reality and we will see the mother of all crashes then.

make no mistake the ball is already rolling!


NAMA plan ,pure folly

David Mc Williams explains ,but there is no mention of the Derivative contracs Anglo is holding along with the AIB and BOI.

These Derivative contracts are all in the red and nobody is takling about them

Is this what Allen Dukes is referring to when he says Anglo will need more funds ??

Are the goverement paying off the huge losses from the other Banks through the Anglo Irish back door??

we need answers!

“Hometown fightback” posting from David Mc Williams

 

David McWilliams has posted a new article, ‘Hometown fightback: it’s time to get

the ball rolling’

I walked by the barbers in Dalkey yesterday and for a split second I was back in

the mid-1970s. I was once again the little boy with the flaming red hair, short

pants and freckles looking up at the kind barber. The boy had a dilemma and the

barber was the only person in the whole world who could solve it.

You may view the full article and add your own comments at

http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2010/03/24/hometown-fightback-its-time-to-get-the-ball-rolling

David

Comment from Machholz

Living in Wicklow town

What your are describing is the same here, only the traders people seem to have given up

Apart from the few eastern block people that seem to give it a go every so often nothing is storing here

The local political top dogs seem to not give a dam

And I am sorry to say that any new shops that open last only 3-4 months

People here seem to just accept the slow death of the town

What a shame!

See my posting on http://thepressnet.com/2010/03/22/wicklow-open-for-business/

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