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Archive for the ‘current affairs (Irish)’ Category

The FINANCE DUBLIN Irish Government Debt Clock

See the Republic of Ireland’s national debt mount up, a measure of the legacy the Irish Government is in the process of bequeathing to the children of Ireland:

                        

                          € 87,669,547,647

 

The FINANCE DUBLIN Irish Government Debt Clock was set at midnight on June 30th 2009, when it was €65.278 billion.

(25 August): S&P downgrade disputed by NTMA, but, the main problem – non banking bailout costs – remain

The most negative aspect of the S&P re-rating on August 24th 2010 is the ‘outlook negative’ aspect, rather than the actual rating, the aspect the NTMA focusses on in disputing the validity of the downgrade. Here’s what S&P say on this aspect: “The negative outlook reflects our view that the rating could be lowered again if–as a result of its support for the financial sector or due to a more sluggish economic recovery (emphasis added)–the government’s fiscal performance improves more slowly than we currently assume.”

“Conversely, the outlook could be revised to stable if the Irish government looks more likely to achieve its fiscal target for the underlying general government deficit of less than 3% of GDP by 2014, or if the banking sector stabilizes more quickly and at a lower fiscal cost to the government than we now think likely.”

As argued many times in this page, since the Finance Dublin Debt Clock was set up in July 2009, while the cost of the banking bailout is admittedly very serious, the much more serious issue is the excessive cost of the state in the economy, which currently sees the national debt as rising by some €18 billion a year. This compares with a estimated total net (once-off) cost of the banking bailout of €25 billion to €30 billion.

Continued emphasis on the (admittedly serious) cost of the banking bailout, Anglo-Irish bank etc., at the expense of focus on Ireland’s unsupportable current and capital spending Budget (now costing 5.35 per cent p.a. in the bond markets to fund) will continue to put Ireland’s credit rating unfavourably under the microscope.

As a close reading and assessment of S&P’s statement shows, a positive result could be achieved by a decision from the Irish Government that it will address the issue of Ireland’s deteriorating credit ratings head-on in the forthcoming Budget by going further than previously announced in cutting down the spending programmes for 2011, 2012, on capital and current account than the (now clearly inadequate) €3 billion it has previously signalled for the 2010 Budget – i.e. bringing forward its fiscal consolidation plan.

Such would be consistent with the principles enunciated by the Minister for Finance in his Beal na mBlath speech on August 22nd. Lenihan’s statement that “We know from the 1980s that unless businesses are confident about the Exchequer’s long term position, they will not create new jobs” shows that this awareness is there – and that policy framed to underpin business and household confidence is key to (a) recovery in tax revenues, which springs from expanded employment primarily, and (b) a stabilisation in the property market, upon which the financial cost of the banking bailout will crucially depend.

Comment

At the above rate we will be well over the  100,000,000,000 Billion  by Christmas so go and get your Christmas shopping now you might not be able to afford it at Christmas !

Any coming budget savings in the 2011 budget will go directly into the Anglo Irish Bank Black Hole and we will need another emergency budget sometime next year when we finally get this shower of gangsters out of government, but I fear the damage will be complete by then! They will by then have helped their pals get everything worth taking of shore and we the people will be left saddled with the bad debts  and all the bills  

Any announcements coming from Brian Clown or Brian Lenihan must be taken with a pinch of salt! the Twiddle Dum and Twiddle Dee politicians are the last people we should rely on for leadership, after nearly two years since the bank crises these two jokers are only now coming to the realization that a bailout of the toxic toilet Anglo Irish Bank wasn’t a great idea after all and the billions powered down that toxic toilet was better spent in retraining the enormous dole queues

Almost two years and 22.5 billions, Clown and Lenihan still cannot  tell the Irish people where this enormous amount of money went, specifically who got this money and why?

Why is it taking this long to say exactly how much has this Toxic toilet has  in bad debts? How many staff has been recruited to this toxic toilet since the financial crises started and why??

Since the announcement of a split of Anglo Irish are we now going to have double staff levels, a second management level, at double the costs, for the same totally discredited bankrupt bank?

Since the work lode will now presumably be less in one or the other good bank, bad bank can we the taxpayers expect a reduction a claw back of the pay rises given to this surplus staff now???

When are we going to see prosecutions of the directors of the banks who have effectively stolen from every citizen of this country? And when can we expect Clown and lenihan resign for the gross mishandling and incompetence of the economy? Since they have effectively destroyed our countries financial independence and with it our soverne independence, they are guilty of economic terrorism

Neither they, nor their cronies should be allowed to benefit in any shape or form from these crimes that includes running off into the sunset with enormous pensions.

it’s time for a change in Irish politics and we must start with a system change this means a constitutional change to make these people personally accountable for their actions whilst in the service of the citizens

Machholz

Should the transfer of Anglo’s remaining NAMA tranches be put on hold ?

from source http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/author/namawinelake/

Should the transfer of Anglo’s remaining NAMA tranches be put on hold pending clarification of Anglo’s total costs?
namawinelake | August 27, 2010 at 10:15 am
Anglo has transferred a cumulative total of €16bn of its NAMA-bound loans in tranches 1 and 2, leaving an estimated €20bn in its remaining tranches if the estimates in NAMA’s revised Business Plan and accompanying tranche 2 detail are correct (what introduces some doubt is the claim two weeks ago by the Anglo CEO Mike Aynsley that €2-4bn of NAMA-bound loans in the UK and US may be “reclassified” in agreement with NAMA).
If tranches 1 and 2 are anything to go by, NAMA will in future pay Anglo a Long Term Economic Value (LEV) premium of 10-12% of the current market value of the loans. So if €20bn is still valid as the face value of the remaining Anglo loans and they have a current market value of 45% of their face value, then NAMA will be paying €0.9-1.1bn above the current market value of the loans. That is a substantial sum of money to be gifting a bank whose future is being debated as we speak at the EU with a European preliminary view on the future of Anglo due in weeks.
The perpetual murmurs of disquiet about Anglo have grown substantially in volume this week. Standard and Poor’s downgrade of Ireland’s credit rating was predicated in part on their assessment of the increased cost of bailing out Anglo at €35bn. Last week in Beijing the Governor of the Central Bank broke the news that “Anglo may impose a NET [my emphasis] cost to the Government of about €22-€25 billion”. A net cost of course could be a gross cost of €35bn with €10bn recouped over time (eg through sale of a government stake in Anglo’s Newbank, redemption of NAMA bonds at face value rather than the accounting value which might assume a large discount). Trinity College economics professor Constantin Gurdgiev repeated his view that Anglo could incur losses of “€33bn in mid-range case, rising to €38.6bn in the worst case scenario”. It is not clear if these losses equate to a net cost to the State as there may already be provisions for these losses and Anglo has a (small) capital base. Today in the Irish Times, former Ulster Bank chief economist Pat McArdle suggests that, in an attempt to improve Ireland’s credit rating “we could try to give greater certainty regarding the Anglo bailout cost, possibly by postponing all other transfers to Nama until Anglo is taken care of.” Other calls this week came from the domestic politics (FG’s Finance spokesman, Michael Noonan calling for a debate at balance sheet level to assess the different options for Anglo) and the Financial Times editorial which today says “it is time to staunch the bleeding. As Irish state guarantees near their expiry date, some banks will not be able to refinance their balances. The government should prepare insolvent banks for forced debt-for-equity swaps, which would instantly recapitalise the banks in question and cap the government’s exposure”. This blog has expressed concerns about the non-NAMA losses at Anglo and whether these are being realistically assessed at present.
Last weekend NAMA paid Anglo a LEV premium of €270m on its latest tranche of loans, a considerable gifted sum in normal times but small in comparison with the expected €1bn of LEV premiums on the remainder of Anglo’s NAMA loan book. Has the tipping point now come whereby Anglo’s future is consensually decided (consensus impedes speed of action but the sums involved have grown to state of war proportions for the Irish state)? And until Anglo’s costs are clarified, should NAMA put the transfer of future loans on hold as these future transfers will involve the State paying substantial sums in excess of the true value of the loans.

Comment:

We did not have to wait for the past 18 months to expire to suddenly find out that NAMA was going to end up paying way over the odds for the various toxic assets from the Banks, never mind the Crap it was getting from ANGLO IRISH BANK
The simple fact is that from the start we the ordinary Joe soaps could smell that a sweetheart deal has been done by the Fianna Fail Government with the establishment of what is now openly been acknowledged as the largest bail out in Irish corporate history and all for the benefit for the golden circle, the chosen few, the cronies and leaches and hangers-on of the Fianna Fail party

This is now seen as a fraudulent transfer of wealth from the citizens of Ireland to a group of irresponsible gamblers, with the help of economic traitors within the government and a totally incompetent regulatory authority that at this stage one must ask if it was designed to be so, in order to facilitate this fraud in the first place !

It is the duty of every citizen to make sure that the next tranche 3 of toxic loans from Anglo-Irish Bank should not take place and indeed an independent international enquire should be set up to investigate exactly who were the beneficiaries of the billions that have already gone into this toxic Toilet, who was responsible for the approval ludicrous high valuations put on these worthless toxic assets and whether there was a conflict of interest at any level
The Fraudulent actions of Government ministers to be exposed and all individuals brought before the courts and jailed on convictions, no golden handshakes or beefed up pensions to be paid out to any individuals found to have felicitated in the cover-up of fraudulent actions or helped to hide relevant information that would have expose this monstrous fraud on the Irish taxpayers
This continued drip ,drip feed of lies must be stopped and the truth must be put before the people
In the form of a general election or a referendum on the issue
I call on all the opposition parties to declare that they will not honour any of the fraudulent guarantees given to the international bondholders by way of an extended government guarantee given in the first place without the consent of the Irish people
I dispute the authority of any government to place me and the hundreds of thousands of its citizens into a kind of financial enslavement to corrupt financial institutions that then are enabled to legally rob me of my family home, my savings, and my prosperity as a consequence of their corrupt practices.
As a result of the establishment of NAMA the countries financial institutions have effectively sucked dry the financial resources of the country for the next generation.
Thus robbing me and the majority of the countries citizens the necessary means to independently provide for their family’s and so forcing families to become dependent on the state for handouts
These actions are a clear breach of the rights guaranteed to every citizen of Ireland by the Irish constitution (see PDF Here Constitution of Ireland) and so renders the establishment of NAMA illegal without first haven put it to a referendum to the citizens of Ireland
Please stand up for our constitutional rights , get active and  put an end to this  madness

Vatican intransigence

VATICAN OBSERVERS
last night speculated that Pope Benedict’s decision not to accept the resignations of Dublin auxiliary bishops Eamonn Walsh and Ray Field is an indication of a Holy See “Maginot Line” on the question of episcopal resignations in light of the clerical sex abuse scandals.
For months now, Vatican commentators have argued that the delay in accepting resignations originally tendered last Christmas indicated a reluctance to see more heads roll.
This reluctance is at least twofold. First, there is nothing the Holy See would like less than to be seen to be dismissing bishops, solely in response to pressure from the media and public opinion. Secondly, senior Vatican figures are concerned about a possible “domino effect” for the Irish hierarchy. In other words, there may still be many Irish bishops with “mishandling/bureaucratic”, sex abuse skeletons still in the cupboard who would also have to resign.
To a certain extent, say observers, the Vatican has opted to differentiate between sins of omission and sins of commission in relation to the clerical sex abuse scandal.
link to full story

Comment
I believe the pope is worried that a precedent would be set by the faithful having a say in who is to be a bishop and even maybe have a say in other areas of the church
This is unpalatable for an organization that has deemed itself un…answerable to anyone on earth
The church is in fact a business and the shareholders (us) are only paid a dividend after we die (so were promised )
What a fantastic scam and the envy of all other business on the planet
This latest development is yet another slap across the face of victims who are told in no uncertain terms where their place is in the pecking order of the Vatican’s concerns, namely at the bottom!

Transparency in Ireland

Absolutely nothing has changed almost a year later
Cowen is still in charge and is still the 4th most highly paid politician in the world
Just think about that.
Dr. Constantine Gurdgiev sets out the real numbers and they speak for themselves
we are kidding ourselves if we chose to ignore these facts
The insiders still hold all the power in this country and they are responsible for the mess we are in
They are also trying to convince the people of Ireland that they have the answers to our problems
How depressing! We must wake up and rid ourselves of these incompetent baboons that are ruling our country


European bank stress test scam!

European bank stress test – official estimates signify NAMA is unintentionally overpaying for loans and undermine DoF’s claims about the Bottom

namawinelake | July 24, 2010 at 6:28 am

The Committee of European Banking Supervisors (CEBS) together with the EC and ECB has published its eagerly awaited results of stress-testing 91 European banks. The two Irish banks included in the exercise, Bank of Ireland and Allied Irish Banks passed the stress-test which set out to examine the capital base of banks in two scenarios – a benchmark scenario and an adverse scenario. Good news for BoI and AIB – seven other European banks didn’t pass the test.

As stated in the report “the benchmark scenario was based on the EU Commission Autumn 2009 forecast and the European Commission Interim Forecast in February 2010, with several adaptations to reflect recent macro-economic developments in a number of countries. The adverse macro-economic scenario was based on ECB estimates”. The assumptions for Ireland are summarized below together with the calculation by the CEBS of the effect on commercial and residential property prices

For information, here is a round up of recent predictions/projections for the Irish residential market:

For information, the ESRI published this week recovery scenarios for the State  – the high growth scenario and the low growth scenario. Both scenarios forecast 2010 GDP to contract by 0.4% and unemployment in 2010 to reach 14%.

What makes the stress test fascinating from the point of view of NAMA is its forecasts for commercial and residential property prices. It’s benchmark scenario is for a 15% compound decline in residential in 2010 and 2011 with drops in both years, a 19% compound decline in commercial in 2010 and 2011 with drops in both years. There is no projection beyond 2011. NAMA has chosen a Valuation Date of 30th November, 2009 pursuant to section 73 of the NAMA Act by reference to which NAMA is valuing the loans being transferred from the financial institutions.

How much does property need recover by 2020 assuming

1. Prices stop falling at the end of 2011

2. All property is sold in December 2020

3. 67% of property is located in Ireland

4. 33% of property is located in the UK

5. Property in the Ireland and the UK is split 50:50 between commercial and residential

The table below what recovery needs happen if NAMA is forced to rely on the recovery of the property market to break even – remember in the draft Business Plan is that the recovery was a flat 10% over 10 years. With the CEBS benchmark scenario, the recovery would be 24.7% and in the adverse scenario 41%. Both of these represent significant changes to NAMA’s draft Business Plan. To emphasise, assuming prices stop falling after 2011, the compound rate of growth needed would be 2.5% per annum for each of the nine years in the benchmark scenario and 4% in the adverse scenario.  These compound percentages might be rendered meaningless if there is significant default and NAMA’s interest receivable falls below its interest payable.

Perhaps a more interesting implication from the benchmark scenario is related to the question of whether NAMA is overpaying for loans now by paying for loans according to the 30th November, 2009. The answer is a resounding yes and if you compare forecast prices at the end of 2010 with the 30th November, 2010, there is an implication that NAMA is overpaying by something in the order of €3-6bn again based on the following assumptions:

1. NAMA acquires the loans by reference to a valuation date of 31st December 2010

2. Price changes in the month of December 2009 have been ignored

3. The LEV remains at a constant 11% above CMV

4. 67% of assets are in Ireland

5. 33% of assets are in the UK

6. The split of assets between commercial and residential is 50:50

Now of course the above is very much a simplification. NAMA’s assets may not correspond to general commercial and residential forecasts – where is development land for example? NAMA will have 7% or so of assets in the Rest of World. NAMA’s LEV as a percentage of CMV may change. So far this year in Ireland residential is off 5% (to the end of Q1) and commercial 8% (to the end of Q2) and the UK is broadly positive, so we have some way to drop before we get to the EU benchmark scenario. There are other assumptions but it is a fair representation, I believe, to say that we are overpaying by billions for NAMA loans by reference to current values – some overpayment was planned via the Long Term Economic Value device but the overpayment being referred to here is on top of that.

Lastly this stress test report comes on the heels of the publication of the EU’s Decision in respect of the first Anglo restructuring plan which was submitted with the DoF’s imprimatur, to the EC in November 2009. The Decision (paragraph 41) revealed that Anglo was planning for property prices were seen to drop in 2009 by 15-19% [actual according to Permanent TSB/ESRI was 18.5%] and continue falling in 2010 and 2011 before starting to rise in 2012. The average decline in property prices in the plan is estimated at 47% peak to trough but in the worst case is 62%. And now with this stress test we have the official EC/ECB estimates that property will continue to drop this year and next. Of course a finance minister has a responsibility to instil confidence but Brian Lenihan’s Bottom statements in September 2009 and April 2010 are now looking distinctly disingenuous and more importantly damaging because the Bottom will come at some point but may overshoot because of a lack of confidence in advice from the government.

source http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2010/07/24/european-bank-stress-test-%e2%80%93-official-estimates-signify-nama-is-unintentionally-overpaying-for-loans-and-undermine-dof%e2%80%99s-claims-about-the-bottom/

comment

Needless to say this whole stress test episode is just a political stage show for the benefit of Joe public  in Euro land .The sad fact is that this test has absolutely no value whatsoever as it does not take into consideration the real dodgy bonds and loans that are the cause of the banking crises in Europe 

The various European politicians have jumped on this and are telling us and the markets that there is no financial crises with our banks and the  European Banks and it’s all a bad dream  that we are all collectively having!.

Cowen and Lenihans assurances that we have turned the corner in 2009 and again in April of this year were lies and dam lies!

How anybody will ever believe a word out of their lying mouths again I will never know!

We now need to wake up and start spending again and where are we going to get the money to spend when we are out of work, when the gangsters in the same “sound banks” are hiking interest rates and pushing people out of their homes as a result of their gambling

The government having poured billions into these same Toxic Banks, are desperately trying to get those of us that still have a little money to invest in these bankrupt banks so they can again start the whole rotten pyramid cycle all over again.Now that the country  is practically bankrupt, they are now about to sell off the last vestiges’ of silver ware the country has left, along with proposed new toll, s on the National roads network, along with home rates and water charges where can we go from here?

500,000 people are out of work and for the last two years none of the politicians in power or the crony independent TD, s that are propping them have done anything for the unemployed

The current government’s unemployment policy is to” let them eat cake “and waffle on about the smart economy

That’s smart all right 60,000 young people left the country last year and the ESRI believes at least 200,000 more will have left by 2014

Clearly the unemployed are only receiving lip service and are way down in the pecking order!

We need a complete change of the political system

Help get rid of the gombeen, s running this country,

Get active on the ground in your own neighbourhoods and do not vote the same leaches back into office

it’s time to change  the system!

New reserve currency

This is big trouble for the USA
WASHINGTON (AP) — Regulators on Friday shut down a Nevada bank, raising to 83 the number of U.S. bank failures this year.
The 83 closures so far this year is more than double the pace set in all of 2009, which was itself a brisk year for shutdowns. By this time last year, regulators had closed 40 banks. The pace has accelerated as banks’ losses mount on loans made for commercial property and development.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. took over Nevada Security Bank, based in Reno, with $480.3 million in assets and $479.8 million in deposits. Umpqua Bank, based in Roseburg, Ore., agreed to assume the assets and deposits of the failed bank.
New reserve currency
We in Ireland are still bailing out bankrupt banks at the cost billions we don’t have causing economic depression for this and the next generation!
With 52 thousand students coming out of our universities and no jobs to go to
alone along with 100,000 people all ready left the country ,and another 53 thousand students leaving secondary education this year
How many of them are going into apprenticeships, jobs or is it emigration for the majority for them
The Unelected Cowen and his band of economic terrorists are helping the top bankers of the state live it up while the rest of us struggle to pay our monthly bills
I say let the bankrupt banks pay their own bills and allow them to fail, just like the Americans are doing in the land of Free markets
Allowing the crooks in the Dail to plunder our natural resources and the wealth of future generations is a crime I personally do not want to be responsible for, when our children ask what you did to prevent it I can show I was active in my opposition and I made a stand
What can you say you did??
It is the responsibility of each and every one of us to oppose this band of thieves we must stand up and take action
Do not just stand by and allow our country to be destroyed by the current government who have sold out to the faceless bondholders in Germany , France and England
Stand up and Fight back now!
Put yourself up for election do not give you vote to any of the current TD’s
We need new blood in the Dail and not Family dynasties
We want a general election now and we need a new community party made up of new local people from ordinary backgrounds that will work for an average wage and not clock up huge self given perks, ending up as millionaires while the rest of us struggle to pay for these perks & pensions
We need real servants of the people and not leach’s sucking the rest of us dry like some of the current shower of TD’s are doing
The next general election must end Gombeenisem for good.
Promise yourself this and we just might save Ireland!

Preliminary Report Into Ireland’s Banking Crisis 31 May 2010

After reading the Preliminary Report into Ireland’s Banking Crisis one can only come to the conclusion that Cowen and Lenihan are Guilty of “Gross Incompetence and Dereliction of Duty”
And should resign immediately and be brought before the courts
on charges of economic treason !

Preliminary Report Into Ireland’s Banking Crisis 31 May 2010

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