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European bank stress test scam!

European bank stress test – official estimates signify NAMA is unintentionally overpaying for loans and undermine DoF’s claims about the Bottom

namawinelake | July 24, 2010 at 6:28 am

The Committee of European Banking Supervisors (CEBS) together with the EC and ECB has published its eagerly awaited results of stress-testing 91 European banks. The two Irish banks included in the exercise, Bank of Ireland and Allied Irish Banks passed the stress-test which set out to examine the capital base of banks in two scenarios – a benchmark scenario and an adverse scenario. Good news for BoI and AIB – seven other European banks didn’t pass the test.

As stated in the report “the benchmark scenario was based on the EU Commission Autumn 2009 forecast and the European Commission Interim Forecast in February 2010, with several adaptations to reflect recent macro-economic developments in a number of countries. The adverse macro-economic scenario was based on ECB estimates”. The assumptions for Ireland are summarized below together with the calculation by the CEBS of the effect on commercial and residential property prices

For information, here is a round up of recent predictions/projections for the Irish residential market:

For information, the ESRI published this week recovery scenarios for the State  – the high growth scenario and the low growth scenario. Both scenarios forecast 2010 GDP to contract by 0.4% and unemployment in 2010 to reach 14%.

What makes the stress test fascinating from the point of view of NAMA is its forecasts for commercial and residential property prices. It’s benchmark scenario is for a 15% compound decline in residential in 2010 and 2011 with drops in both years, a 19% compound decline in commercial in 2010 and 2011 with drops in both years. There is no projection beyond 2011. NAMA has chosen a Valuation Date of 30th November, 2009 pursuant to section 73 of the NAMA Act by reference to which NAMA is valuing the loans being transferred from the financial institutions.

How much does property need recover by 2020 assuming

1. Prices stop falling at the end of 2011

2. All property is sold in December 2020

3. 67% of property is located in Ireland

4. 33% of property is located in the UK

5. Property in the Ireland and the UK is split 50:50 between commercial and residential

The table below what recovery needs happen if NAMA is forced to rely on the recovery of the property market to break even – remember in the draft Business Plan is that the recovery was a flat 10% over 10 years. With the CEBS benchmark scenario, the recovery would be 24.7% and in the adverse scenario 41%. Both of these represent significant changes to NAMA’s draft Business Plan. To emphasise, assuming prices stop falling after 2011, the compound rate of growth needed would be 2.5% per annum for each of the nine years in the benchmark scenario and 4% in the adverse scenario.  These compound percentages might be rendered meaningless if there is significant default and NAMA’s interest receivable falls below its interest payable.

Perhaps a more interesting implication from the benchmark scenario is related to the question of whether NAMA is overpaying for loans now by paying for loans according to the 30th November, 2009. The answer is a resounding yes and if you compare forecast prices at the end of 2010 with the 30th November, 2010, there is an implication that NAMA is overpaying by something in the order of €3-6bn again based on the following assumptions:

1. NAMA acquires the loans by reference to a valuation date of 31st December 2010

2. Price changes in the month of December 2009 have been ignored

3. The LEV remains at a constant 11% above CMV

4. 67% of assets are in Ireland

5. 33% of assets are in the UK

6. The split of assets between commercial and residential is 50:50

Now of course the above is very much a simplification. NAMA’s assets may not correspond to general commercial and residential forecasts – where is development land for example? NAMA will have 7% or so of assets in the Rest of World. NAMA’s LEV as a percentage of CMV may change. So far this year in Ireland residential is off 5% (to the end of Q1) and commercial 8% (to the end of Q2) and the UK is broadly positive, so we have some way to drop before we get to the EU benchmark scenario. There are other assumptions but it is a fair representation, I believe, to say that we are overpaying by billions for NAMA loans by reference to current values – some overpayment was planned via the Long Term Economic Value device but the overpayment being referred to here is on top of that.

Lastly this stress test report comes on the heels of the publication of the EU’s Decision in respect of the first Anglo restructuring plan which was submitted with the DoF’s imprimatur, to the EC in November 2009. The Decision (paragraph 41) revealed that Anglo was planning for property prices were seen to drop in 2009 by 15-19% [actual according to Permanent TSB/ESRI was 18.5%] and continue falling in 2010 and 2011 before starting to rise in 2012. The average decline in property prices in the plan is estimated at 47% peak to trough but in the worst case is 62%. And now with this stress test we have the official EC/ECB estimates that property will continue to drop this year and next. Of course a finance minister has a responsibility to instil confidence but Brian Lenihan’s Bottom statements in September 2009 and April 2010 are now looking distinctly disingenuous and more importantly damaging because the Bottom will come at some point but may overshoot because of a lack of confidence in advice from the government.

source http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2010/07/24/european-bank-stress-test-%e2%80%93-official-estimates-signify-nama-is-unintentionally-overpaying-for-loans-and-undermine-dof%e2%80%99s-claims-about-the-bottom/

comment

Needless to say this whole stress test episode is just a political stage show for the benefit of Joe public  in Euro land .The sad fact is that this test has absolutely no value whatsoever as it does not take into consideration the real dodgy bonds and loans that are the cause of the banking crises in Europe 

The various European politicians have jumped on this and are telling us and the markets that there is no financial crises with our banks and the  European Banks and it’s all a bad dream  that we are all collectively having!.

Cowen and Lenihans assurances that we have turned the corner in 2009 and again in April of this year were lies and dam lies!

How anybody will ever believe a word out of their lying mouths again I will never know!

We now need to wake up and start spending again and where are we going to get the money to spend when we are out of work, when the gangsters in the same “sound banks” are hiking interest rates and pushing people out of their homes as a result of their gambling

The government having poured billions into these same Toxic Banks, are desperately trying to get those of us that still have a little money to invest in these bankrupt banks so they can again start the whole rotten pyramid cycle all over again.Now that the country  is practically bankrupt, they are now about to sell off the last vestiges’ of silver ware the country has left, along with proposed new toll, s on the National roads network, along with home rates and water charges where can we go from here?

500,000 people are out of work and for the last two years none of the politicians in power or the crony independent TD, s that are propping them have done anything for the unemployed

The current government’s unemployment policy is to” let them eat cake “and waffle on about the smart economy

That’s smart all right 60,000 young people left the country last year and the ESRI believes at least 200,000 more will have left by 2014

Clearly the unemployed are only receiving lip service and are way down in the pecking order!

We need a complete change of the political system

Help get rid of the gombeen, s running this country,

Get active on the ground in your own neighbourhoods and do not vote the same leaches back into office

it’s time to change  the system!

overly optimistic Irish Government’s plan

By Sarah Collins in Brussels

Thursday March 18 2010

IRELAND’S plans to bring spending and borrowing under control may require deeper cuts than previously forecast, the European Commission said yesterday, as it demanded that Finance Minister Brian Lenihan take action on public sector pensions and provide more details about plans for further cuts over the next few years.

The commission said in the report that the Government’s plan to slash the budget deficit by eight percentage points over the next four years is overly optimistic and lacks detail. Ireland is currently running a budget deficit that is four times the EU’s limit but has promised to bring it below 3pc of gross domestic product by 2014.

“The budgetary outcomes could be worse than targeted in 2010 and considerably worse than targeted thereafter,” said the report.

“The authorities should stand ready to take additional measures beyond the planned consolidation packages in case growth turned out to be lower than projected in the programme.”

The biggest problem is the Government’s prediction that the economy will expand 3.3pc next year.

The commission’s forecast sees the economy growing by just 2.6pc.

The commission also says there are risks the 2010 Budget could fall victim to spending “slippages”, not least because of injections that could be called in to shore up the country’s banks.

Mr Lenihan did not set aside money to pay for any further cash injections into the country’s banks this year, despite widespread expectations that Allied Irish Banks, Bank of Ireland and Anglo Irish will all require billions of euros.

EU officials said Ireland’s adjustment process will be “rather drawn out” and that emigration and high interest rates on government debt could wear on the economy. The present plans would only stabilise government debt by 2020.

“Specific additional risks relate to the government’s bank guarantees to support the financial sector, which, if called, would lead to increases in deficit and debt,” it says.

It also told the Department of Finance to spell out how it will slash the deficit by three percentage points in 2012 and a further two points in 2013 and 2014 to bring it below the EU’s limit.

The department also needs to provide more data to explain some of its calculations, it adds. Revenue and expenditure projections are “technical” rather than being targets, it says.

“From 2011 on, taking into account the risks to the deficit targets, the budgetary strategy may not be consistent with the (EU) recommendation. In particular, the deficit targets for 2011-2014 need to be backed up by concrete measures and the plans for the entire period need to be strengthened,” the report says.

The call for the Government to strengthen the “binding nature of the medium-term budgetary framework” appears to be a demand for Ireland to make plans beyond the traditional scope of budgets here.

A government spokesman said yesterday that specific extra cuts or tax rises would be announced in relevant budgets, when it would take account of the then-prevailing economic circumstances.

The commission says the Government should introduce more public sector pension reform to improve the long-term sustainability of the public finances.

“The long-term budgetary impact of ageing is clearly higher than the EU average,” the report says.

The report adds that the Government should also consider plugging holes in the budget by widening its tax base. It says the effects of the new carbon tax will be negated by cuts in VAT rates.

“The sharp decline in revenue recorded in the context of the housing market correction and the wider recession has revealed some vulnerabilities of the Irish tax system, such as a narrow tax base and a high reliance on taxing transactions in assets,” the report says. Ireland is one of 20 member states under increased scrutiny by the EU executive for running up a deficit that exceeds the bloc’s limit.

Countries are legally bound to maintain deficits – the shortfall between revenue and spending – below 3pc of gross domestic product and keep gross debt – the amount the government borrows to finance the shortfall – below 60pc of GDP. Ireland’s deficit last year was 11.6pc of GDP, while debt rose to 64.5pc, both above EU thresholds.

In April last year Brussels gave the Government until 2013 to bring the deficit back into line but extended the deadline last December.

– Sarah Collins in Brussels

Irish Independent

The Foxes minding the Chickens

The Governments intention to hold the inquire in the banking collapse in Private is an outright attack on Irish democracy

Having beaten down the will of the people to use the exiting democratic means to challenge them

We find that they are in total control of all the machinery of the state and they are using them to maintain their hold on power.

A recent poll on the performance of the governing parties is a complete farce.

The same radio station went out and asked the general public about the results and not one out of the members of the public supported the so called results of the earlier poll.

The News Media in this country is heavily infested by the ruling political elite

That is why there is a revolution going on with the whole way we access news to-day.

Bloggers are organizing themselves all around the country and demanding the same access as the established news media and probing into local corrupt practices within local county councils

(See for example https://mail.google.com/mail/?hl=en&shva=1#all/12654e2d240b57cd )

if you are want to start making a difference to the way the country is being run and get involved in direct action, you could start to-day by tacking action and fight for your right to be heard .

It’s your country and not the personal property of Brian Cowen, Brian lenihian, The Greens or indeed any of the political parity’s currently sitting the Dail

If you believe in an open economy, free enterprise, competition social justice

Then please get in touch and start an action group in your own area and help us to formulate a manifesto to challenge the established con artists that lurk within the current political system.

Join the CAB to-day

protests in Dublin streets (3)

Budget 2010

Remember the joke ‘What’s the difference between Iceland and Ireland? One letter and six months!’ Oh how Insider wishes that had been true.

The Icelanders took no crap from their Government;

They took to the streets and toppled their Government, dumping with it the banks and speculators that had caused the crisis through their greed and free market economics. There was no NAMA in Iceland, no bailing out of the banks and their hangers-on.

Today the icy island is experiencing economic ‘green shoots’ quite unlike Ireland

Where our crooks that led us into this catastrophe are still in place and they have successfully convinced the people to pay their gambling debts

But for how long will the people put up with this con job and take matters into their own hands?

Irish peoples union Dublin March to-day

Dublin 12.09.2009  link

 

Had a demonstration in Dublin to-day against the proposal to set up the Toxic Bank NAMA

 

 

They were supported by a wide range of concerned citizens!

This demonstration was called a very short notice and was organized over the internet via Face book, Blogs, and social networks .The ordinary people are getting more and more sophisticated in their use of the internet and more people have now independent tools to get the word out .this is not the 1970’s or the 1980’s where the ordinary people were left with only one option, that was to suffer in silence or emigrate for good, and leave the corrupt politicians rule the country

Not this time! Groups like Irish peoples union are springing up all over the country and I believe we are seeing the start of a people’s movement that will eventually shake up Irish politics for good

I attended to-days march to give my support to this movement; I am passionately against the whole concept of NAMA and I believe that this is the greatest challenge to the Irish Independence since the foundation of the Irish republic

I believe this is an attempt by the government to off lode all of the toxic debts of their buddies in the Banks and the Building Industry on to the backs of the Irish people and subsequently financially enslave this generation and the next.

We owe it to our children to fight this and any other attempt to take away our livelihoods and our financial independence

The corrupt politicians and criminals in the Banks must be brought to account!

Machholz is not a member of any political party and is a swing voter!

How to win a referendum:

Scaremongering but who’s doing it?


Finance Minister Brian Lenihan also warned yesterday that if Irish voters snubbed the treaty the result would “shatter international confidence” and lead to continued scarcity of funding and increased borrowing costs.(Looking for a yes vote)

A ‘No’ vote in next month’s lisbon Treaty  referendum could result in the interest bill on Ireland’s national debt jumping by up to €900m a year according to Indecon
(
Looking for a Yes vote )

A NO vote in the upcoming Lisbon Treaty referendum would represent a “spiritual withdrawal”, from Europe, Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan has warned. (Looking for a Yes vote)

A Yes vote in the referendum would earn Ireland the continued goodwill and support of the EU in tackling the banking crisis, he added.

Mr Gormley “It would be entirely counterproductive to vote “The whole emphasis in terms of the European recovery is a green recovery [which can provide] jobs, jobs, jobs.” Echoing the sentiments of other pro-Lisbon political leaders, “It would be a huge mistake to focus on national issues when this is a campaign to get us out of recession,” he said. (Looking for a yes vote)

How to win a referendum:

1. On top of high VRT, introduce a Green (Party) carbon tax, and just to be on the safe side, impose a €200 a year work parking tax, just for daring to have a job!

2. Make the citizens vote a second time, even though they said No – but make sure you don’t change the wording.

3. Have on the Yes side a millionaire car salesman, like Bill Cullen, who opposed changes to the infamous VRT, and is the biggest over priced merchant for  the Renault spear parts in the country(Nice one Bill!)

 

4 . Have Ryanair on the Government side, who are best known for their F-Service , saying there are a millions reasons to vote Yes (excluding taxes and charges), and (Baggage charges Now approaching 100 euro per bag) then have the same Government introduce a €10 travel tax, contrary to EU law of freedom of movement between member-states.

5 . In case the European Central Bank doesn’t hype up mortgage rates any time soon, re-introduce water rates and a property tax on every family home in Ireland, while at the same time making taxpayers bail out the bankers and the builders.

6 . Make sure Brian Cowen leads the Yes campaign.

7 . Have crooks running FAS

8 . Have people like John O’Donoghue become Ceann Comhairle in the Dail

9 . Create Toxic Banks to help your buddies in the Banks and the Building


Industries

10 . Keep corrupt Politicians in places of power

11 .TAX the Sh*** out of the ordinary people

12 Tell them you are going to crucify them in the coming December Budget

13. Make a complete mess of the Economy, and blame it on the ordinary people

For having paid extortion prices for their own homes

14. Put a Tax on those homes, let say 1000 Euro on average for every home in

The land

15 .when you hold a referendum keep going back to the people until you get the right result (the one you want)

16 .
Keep corrupt Bankers in their High paying Jobs at Bankrupt Banks

17. Allow these same Banks (Now with Government appointed Directors) to

Overcharge their own customers, and then, clam that it was a computer error when found out.

18. Allow dodgy Building Developers stroll into the courts of the land and present fantasy valuations as a means to dance around The Supreme Court rulings

When 80 families are turned out, and lose their overpriced homes every week, sold to them by these developers in the first place

19 . Make it blatantly obvious, that there is one law for the rich, and another law for the poor in this country

20. Tell everyone that NAMA is the only game in town and we the people must pay the gambling debts of the super rich of the country.

That should do it!

 

 

 


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