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Archive for the ‘Budget 2011’ Category

Still can’t face up to the reality,Cowen & Lenihan’s Bunker Mentality

Listening back on this recording  http://thepressnet.com/2010/09/14/8864/

I noticed again the attempt by Cowen to label the moderator a “defeatist” It occurred to me that Cowen and lenihan are increasingly using words one would have heard in the last days of the Bunker in Berlin May 1945 So we are now labelled “Defeatist” those of us that want to call a spade a spade, reality is reality and no bully boy tactics by Cowen or lenihan will change the fact the economy is on its knees and this is a result of the mismanagement of Cowen and Lenihan Here is a extract of an article I picked up yesterday in the Irish Times by Fintan O Tool, here he has spotted the language Brian Lenihan is using and again only listening again to my recording of the radio interview with Cowen does it become more apparent these two guys have totally lost the plot and must be removed as a matter of urgency for the country’s sake!

Unable to admit putting his country in this hideous mess, Brian Lenihan has turned further and further away from reality, writes FINTAN O’TOOLE WHEN SOMEONE says a thing once, it may be a slip of the tongue. When they repeat it, it is an indication of the way their mind is working. Thus it is with a phrase that Brian Lenihan used twice last Thursday, when he was explaining why “the cheapest bank bailout in the world” has turned into a €50 billion nightmare. The glimpse it gives of what is going on at the back of his mind is truly terrifying. Early in the day, on Morning Ireland , Lenihan remarked of his plan to pump another €3.7 billion into Allied Irish Banks (bringing the total so far to €7.2 billion) that it would help restore AIB to “its former greatness”. The phrase was so breathtakingly brainless that I assumed it was just one of those cliches that sometimes invades the mind when it is on rhetorical auto-pilot. But, no. Later, on Prime Time , Lenihan announced that the entire banking system would be restored to “the greatness it once had”. Oh dear God – he really means “greatness”. Do we really have to ask what constituted the “former greatness” of AIB? Was it the collusion with a massive tax fraud on the State in the 1980s and 1990s? Was it the overcharging of customers to the tune of €66 million? Read more at source http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2010/1005/1224280400401.html

German war reparations

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It took Germany 90 years to pay off 25 billion in war reparations for the First World War.
The US gulf will need 20$ Billion to clean it up .

Ireland is now been saddled with debts of 36.5 billion and that’s just Anglo Irish Bank plus the other banks another 14 billion a nice round 50,000,000,000:00
How long will it take for this little country to pay off this private debt?
Cowen and Lenihan will go down in history as the most incompetent politicians in Irish History and the leaders of the opposition parties coming in close behind.
This country needs competent men and woman in the dail and not selfish leaches sucking our country dry.

European bank stress test scam!

European bank stress test – official estimates signify NAMA is unintentionally overpaying for loans and undermine DoF’s claims about the Bottom

namawinelake | July 24, 2010 at 6:28 am

The Committee of European Banking Supervisors (CEBS) together with the EC and ECB has published its eagerly awaited results of stress-testing 91 European banks. The two Irish banks included in the exercise, Bank of Ireland and Allied Irish Banks passed the stress-test which set out to examine the capital base of banks in two scenarios – a benchmark scenario and an adverse scenario. Good news for BoI and AIB – seven other European banks didn’t pass the test.

As stated in the report “the benchmark scenario was based on the EU Commission Autumn 2009 forecast and the European Commission Interim Forecast in February 2010, with several adaptations to reflect recent macro-economic developments in a number of countries. The adverse macro-economic scenario was based on ECB estimates”. The assumptions for Ireland are summarized below together with the calculation by the CEBS of the effect on commercial and residential property prices

For information, here is a round up of recent predictions/projections for the Irish residential market:

For information, the ESRI published this week recovery scenarios for the State  – the high growth scenario and the low growth scenario. Both scenarios forecast 2010 GDP to contract by 0.4% and unemployment in 2010 to reach 14%.

What makes the stress test fascinating from the point of view of NAMA is its forecasts for commercial and residential property prices. It’s benchmark scenario is for a 15% compound decline in residential in 2010 and 2011 with drops in both years, a 19% compound decline in commercial in 2010 and 2011 with drops in both years. There is no projection beyond 2011. NAMA has chosen a Valuation Date of 30th November, 2009 pursuant to section 73 of the NAMA Act by reference to which NAMA is valuing the loans being transferred from the financial institutions.

How much does property need recover by 2020 assuming

1. Prices stop falling at the end of 2011

2. All property is sold in December 2020

3. 67% of property is located in Ireland

4. 33% of property is located in the UK

5. Property in the Ireland and the UK is split 50:50 between commercial and residential

The table below what recovery needs happen if NAMA is forced to rely on the recovery of the property market to break even – remember in the draft Business Plan is that the recovery was a flat 10% over 10 years. With the CEBS benchmark scenario, the recovery would be 24.7% and in the adverse scenario 41%. Both of these represent significant changes to NAMA’s draft Business Plan. To emphasise, assuming prices stop falling after 2011, the compound rate of growth needed would be 2.5% per annum for each of the nine years in the benchmark scenario and 4% in the adverse scenario.  These compound percentages might be rendered meaningless if there is significant default and NAMA’s interest receivable falls below its interest payable.

Perhaps a more interesting implication from the benchmark scenario is related to the question of whether NAMA is overpaying for loans now by paying for loans according to the 30th November, 2009. The answer is a resounding yes and if you compare forecast prices at the end of 2010 with the 30th November, 2010, there is an implication that NAMA is overpaying by something in the order of €3-6bn again based on the following assumptions:

1. NAMA acquires the loans by reference to a valuation date of 31st December 2010

2. Price changes in the month of December 2009 have been ignored

3. The LEV remains at a constant 11% above CMV

4. 67% of assets are in Ireland

5. 33% of assets are in the UK

6. The split of assets between commercial and residential is 50:50

Now of course the above is very much a simplification. NAMA’s assets may not correspond to general commercial and residential forecasts – where is development land for example? NAMA will have 7% or so of assets in the Rest of World. NAMA’s LEV as a percentage of CMV may change. So far this year in Ireland residential is off 5% (to the end of Q1) and commercial 8% (to the end of Q2) and the UK is broadly positive, so we have some way to drop before we get to the EU benchmark scenario. There are other assumptions but it is a fair representation, I believe, to say that we are overpaying by billions for NAMA loans by reference to current values – some overpayment was planned via the Long Term Economic Value device but the overpayment being referred to here is on top of that.

Lastly this stress test report comes on the heels of the publication of the EU’s Decision in respect of the first Anglo restructuring plan which was submitted with the DoF’s imprimatur, to the EC in November 2009. The Decision (paragraph 41) revealed that Anglo was planning for property prices were seen to drop in 2009 by 15-19% [actual according to Permanent TSB/ESRI was 18.5%] and continue falling in 2010 and 2011 before starting to rise in 2012. The average decline in property prices in the plan is estimated at 47% peak to trough but in the worst case is 62%. And now with this stress test we have the official EC/ECB estimates that property will continue to drop this year and next. Of course a finance minister has a responsibility to instil confidence but Brian Lenihan’s Bottom statements in September 2009 and April 2010 are now looking distinctly disingenuous and more importantly damaging because the Bottom will come at some point but may overshoot because of a lack of confidence in advice from the government.

source http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2010/07/24/european-bank-stress-test-%e2%80%93-official-estimates-signify-nama-is-unintentionally-overpaying-for-loans-and-undermine-dof%e2%80%99s-claims-about-the-bottom/

comment

Needless to say this whole stress test episode is just a political stage show for the benefit of Joe public  in Euro land .The sad fact is that this test has absolutely no value whatsoever as it does not take into consideration the real dodgy bonds and loans that are the cause of the banking crises in Europe 

The various European politicians have jumped on this and are telling us and the markets that there is no financial crises with our banks and the  European Banks and it’s all a bad dream  that we are all collectively having!.

Cowen and Lenihans assurances that we have turned the corner in 2009 and again in April of this year were lies and dam lies!

How anybody will ever believe a word out of their lying mouths again I will never know!

We now need to wake up and start spending again and where are we going to get the money to spend when we are out of work, when the gangsters in the same “sound banks” are hiking interest rates and pushing people out of their homes as a result of their gambling

The government having poured billions into these same Toxic Banks, are desperately trying to get those of us that still have a little money to invest in these bankrupt banks so they can again start the whole rotten pyramid cycle all over again.Now that the country  is practically bankrupt, they are now about to sell off the last vestiges’ of silver ware the country has left, along with proposed new toll, s on the National roads network, along with home rates and water charges where can we go from here?

500,000 people are out of work and for the last two years none of the politicians in power or the crony independent TD, s that are propping them have done anything for the unemployed

The current government’s unemployment policy is to” let them eat cake “and waffle on about the smart economy

That’s smart all right 60,000 young people left the country last year and the ESRI believes at least 200,000 more will have left by 2014

Clearly the unemployed are only receiving lip service and are way down in the pecking order!

We need a complete change of the political system

Help get rid of the gombeen, s running this country,

Get active on the ground in your own neighbourhoods and do not vote the same leaches back into office

it’s time to change  the system!

Cabinet prepared for tough economic decisions

according to the RTE News

Government ministers are admitting tough decisions must be taken in order to deal with economic realities.

Their comments came ahead of a Cabinet meeting at Farmleigh to discuss preparations for December’s Budget.

Minister for Justice Dermot Ahern said today’s meeting was the start of a long process.

He said that the difference between income and expenditure could not continue.

He said that the long budgetary process started with decisions being made early, but he added that as time goes on the cuts would come ‘closer to the bone’.

Minister for Foreign Affairs Micheál Martin said a range of options would be put before Cabinet today.

He said every year the Cabinet works hard on the Budget and that would continue. Mr Martin added that every Department must identify areas in which it can save money.

Minister for Culture, Sport and Tourism Mary Hanafin said today’s meeting was an important part of the budgetary process. She said it is, as yet, too early to make decisions, but that tough decisions need to be made.

Ms Hanafin insisted the decisions must happen in the context of creating employment.

Minister for Agriculture Brendan Smith said a lot of decisions need to be made and detailed discussions will take place between now and Budget day.

Asked if the outcome of today’s meeting and the next Budget would mean pain for the public and Government departments, Green Party minister Eamon Ryan said ‘let’s see, we will get there’.

Today’s meeting was due to begin with an overview from Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan.

The Government needs to axe €3bn from spending, €1bn from the capital programme with the lion’s share of the balance coming from cuts rather than tax hikes.

December will not see a property tax but what sources were calling ‘novel approaches’ in the capital tax area were not being ruled out even though all concerned realise the scope for significant revenue there is limited.

There will be no announcements at Farmleigh today. The meeting is expected to continue until after 5pm.

Comment:

How long more are we the Irish public going to tolerate these incompetent baboons at best running our country?

Not one of the departments’s projections has been right. (Department of Finance)

All we can expect is more taxes and lies!

How do the politicians and bureaucrats, perceive the citizenry? Paying lip service to their role as “public servants,” especially at election time, public officials, in reality, scoff at any such notion. In their eyes, the citizens are means, not ends, which exist solely to ensure the preservation of the bureaucracy.

This philosophical perspective — that the citizen is merely a “cog in the wheel” which can, and will, be sacrificed for the greater good of the bureaucracy

The civil bureaucracy exercises ever-increasing control over the lives and wealth of the citizenry.

 

 Are we are now going to continue to allow these economic terrorists destroy the rest of our country’s wealth for the sake of Toxic banks and dodgy developers ,whom by the way Fine Gael is just as cosy with it would appear ?

We the people are soverne and not the over bloated individuals that clam to be servants of the people

We need to rid ourselves of these leaches and incompetent bureaucrats once and for all

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