What is truth?

Archive for the ‘Brian Lenihian’ Category

spreads tell a story

CDS spreads  

Mr Lenihan, these figures tell the Irish People the real story the spreads cannot be dismissed and you are going to have to come clean on the true nature of the Banks derivatives time bomb

No more account gimmickry! No More drip, drip losses!

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Still can’t face up to the reality,Cowen & Lenihan’s Bunker Mentality

Listening back on this recording  http://thepressnet.com/2010/09/14/8864/

I noticed again the attempt by Cowen to label the moderator a “defeatist” It occurred to me that Cowen and lenihan are increasingly using words one would have heard in the last days of the Bunker in Berlin May 1945 So we are now labelled “Defeatist” those of us that want to call a spade a spade, reality is reality and no bully boy tactics by Cowen or lenihan will change the fact the economy is on its knees and this is a result of the mismanagement of Cowen and Lenihan Here is a extract of an article I picked up yesterday in the Irish Times by Fintan O Tool, here he has spotted the language Brian Lenihan is using and again only listening again to my recording of the radio interview with Cowen does it become more apparent these two guys have totally lost the plot and must be removed as a matter of urgency for the country’s sake!

Unable to admit putting his country in this hideous mess, Brian Lenihan has turned further and further away from reality, writes FINTAN O’TOOLE WHEN SOMEONE says a thing once, it may be a slip of the tongue. When they repeat it, it is an indication of the way their mind is working. Thus it is with a phrase that Brian Lenihan used twice last Thursday, when he was explaining why “the cheapest bank bailout in the world” has turned into a €50 billion nightmare. The glimpse it gives of what is going on at the back of his mind is truly terrifying. Early in the day, on Morning Ireland , Lenihan remarked of his plan to pump another €3.7 billion into Allied Irish Banks (bringing the total so far to €7.2 billion) that it would help restore AIB to “its former greatness”. The phrase was so breathtakingly brainless that I assumed it was just one of those cliches that sometimes invades the mind when it is on rhetorical auto-pilot. But, no. Later, on Prime Time , Lenihan announced that the entire banking system would be restored to “the greatness it once had”. Oh dear God – he really means “greatness”. Do we really have to ask what constituted the “former greatness” of AIB? Was it the collusion with a massive tax fraud on the State in the 1980s and 1990s? Was it the overcharging of customers to the tune of €66 million? Read more at source http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2010/1005/1224280400401.html

German war reparations

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It took Germany 90 years to pay off 25 billion in war reparations for the First World War.
The US gulf will need 20$ Billion to clean it up .

Ireland is now been saddled with debts of 36.5 billion and that’s just Anglo Irish Bank plus the other banks another 14 billion a nice round 50,000,000,000:00
How long will it take for this little country to pay off this private debt?
Cowen and Lenihan will go down in history as the most incompetent politicians in Irish History and the leaders of the opposition parties coming in close behind.
This country needs competent men and woman in the dail and not selfish leaches sucking our country dry.

Brian Lenihan’s statement this morning.

New NAMA adjustments

1. Loans of less than €20m not being transferred now .

2. NAMA debtors to drop from 1500 to 850

3. NAMA to abandon tranches, replaced with one remaining tranche per Participating Institution (PI – AIB, Anglo, BoI, EBS, INBS) Irish Nationwide Building Society

4. Anglo tranche to be transferred by end of October 2010

5. Loan-by-loan due diligence to continue

6. EU consulted and advised – (But it got EU  approval ?)

7. Loss of sub-€20m loans to reduce NAMA portfolio from €80bn at par value to €73.4bn

8. A 67% haircut expected on remaining Anglo tranche of €19bn (remaining Anglo tranche of €19bn plus T1+2 = €35bn and Anglo was supposed to be selling loans and sub €20m loans are now excluded – is €19bn right?)

9. Large increases in estimates of haircuts remaining tranches – Anglo 67%, AIB 60%, BoI 42%, EBS 60%, INBS – not shown (why?)

source http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/author/namawinelake/

Press Statement 30 September 2010

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Press Statement 30 September 2010

The Central Bank today (Thursday 30 September) published its assessment of the capital requirements resulting from the recently announced restructuring of Anglo Irish Bank.

In addition, the Central Bank has published the outcome of its review of the capital requirements of those Irish banks subject to the Prudential Capital Assessment Review (PCAR) exercise, in light of the estimated remaining haircuts to be applied by NAMA.

Anglo Irish Bank Restructuring

The Central Bank has assessed the injection of capital needed to meet minimum regulatory requirements under both a base, or central, scenario, taking account of expected losses, and under a severe hypothetical stress scenario.

This assessment has been applied to both the proposed Funding Bank and the Asset Recovery Bank that will be created. The total capital required for both institutions under the base, or expected loss, scenario is €29.3billion.

Under the stress scenario, in the event that unexpected additional losses are incurred, the Central Bank estimates that an additional €5 billion of capital could potentially be required.

A detailed description of the capital requirements and the methodology used are set out in the attached statement.

Implementation of PCAR Requirements for Irish Banks

The Central Bank has advised the Irish banks subject to the Prudential Capital Assessment Review (PCAR) that the year-end deadline for meeting the standards remains in place. The Central Bank has reviewed the requirements based on the higher NAMA haircuts announced today and which were not available when the original calculations were conducted on 30 March.

The outcome of the review is as follows:

AIB

In light of the higher NAMA haircuts, the Central Bank has advised AIB that it will be required to raise an additional €3 billion by 31 December.

Bank of Ireland

Bank of Ireland already has sufficient capital to meet the PCAR standard in the light of the higher NAMA haircuts.

EBS

NAMA has not indicated haircut estimates for EBS at this point. Given the small size of the portfolio of loans, the impact of higher haircuts is unlikely to be significant. However, the Central Bank has informed EBS that it will need to take account of higher haircut levels of up to 60% in its capital planning and it should advise acquirers accordingly.

IL&P

IL&P does not have loans in NAMA and its PCAR is unaffected.

INBS

A PCAR exercise has not yet been conducted for INBS in light of the continuing discussion on its restructuring plans.

A more detailed description of the PCAR review is in the attached statement.

Speaking today, Central Bank Governor, Patrick Honohan, said: “Taking account of NAMA’s estimates of future haircuts has implications for required capital injections which need to be acted on now.  The new calculations give clarity and as much certainty as can reasonably be expected to the budgetary cost of the bank restructuring.  The additional budgetary costs – and in particular the higher debt-to-GDP ratio that is implied – confirm the need for a reprogramming of the budgetary profile, though it is important to recognise that the bulk of this reprogramming need arises from other sources.  Today’s announcements take the Irish banking system closer to a final resolution of its restructuring, which is a prerequisite for sustained economic recovery.”

The Head of Financial Regulation at the Central Bank, Matthew Elderfield, said: “The assessment we have published today of the costs of Anglo’s restructuring reflect careful analysis of information from a range of sources.  It also includes a projection based on a prudent hypothetical stress scenario which gives guidance as to the likely upper bound of those costs.  At the same time, we have today confirmed that we are pressing ahead with our plans to require the Irish banks to meet more rigorous capital requirements which are closely aligned with the new international standards set by the Basel Committee and to do so by the year end.  As part of this process, we have advised the banks that they need to take account of developments in the NAMA haircuts which have occurred during the course of the year.  This ensures that the banks’ year end capital position fully meets the objectives of our Prudential Capital Assessment Review process.”

Lenihan logic: heads you win and tails you win for the bondholders

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Irish Finance Minister Demonstrates that he doesn’t believe in Capitalism
By The Fundamental Analyst, on September 24th, 2010
Here again we see another case of those that embraced capitalism on the way up, shudder at the consequences when things go the other way. Take the latest comments from the Irish Finance Minister, from Reuters:
Irish finmin says no chance banks, govt will default
DUBLIN, Sept 22 (Reuters) – It is unthinkable that Ireland or its banks would default on senior debt, Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said on Wednesday.
Opposition politicians and some media commentators have called on Lenihan to force bondholders in Anglo Irish Bank [ANGIB.UL] to take some of the hit for the nationalised lender’s massive losses, which are a major burden on the exchequer.
“It’s unthinkable that Ireland would default on senior debt or that Ireland’s banks would default on senior debt,” Lenihan told Reuters in parliament.
“Ireland is not prepared to be some kind of social experiment for bank default.”
Why is it unthinkable? I’m not up to date with the extent of Anglo Irish Bank’s problems, but if the losses are big enough to eat through all subordinated debt then senior debt is next in line, simple. This is what happens in a restructuring, equity holders get taken out and bondholders take a haircut. Maybe the losses aren’t that big that senior bondholders need to take their lumps, but even so, to make a blanket statement such as the Irish FM has made demonstrates that he is firmly of the belief that bondholders aren’t responsible for their mistakes and that capitalism should be suspended when things go pear-shaped.
 
Comment:
There you have it once again Lenihan is way out of touch with the norms of capitalism
Its all about risk that’s why bondholders get to demand such high interest payments because there taking a gamble and if things go pair shaped they go and take a bath
Lenihan has a logic of heads you win and tails you win for the bondholders and they love him for it!
Maybe it would be better if Lenihan was in charge,”lets shift Cowen “me thinks the bondholders might be thinking”!

“A picture is worth a thousand words”

Europe’s biggest can of worms is overflowing again.
Fears that Europe’s banks are vulnerable to losses on risky government bond investments are sending shivers through the European bond markets, especially Ireland and Greece. Investors are dumping risky bonds tied to weaker European economies and crowding into the safe havens of German and British government bonds.
Ireland, which is grappling with an increasingly expensive bail-out of troubled lender Anglo Irish Bank, is the single worst performer Tuesday.
The premium that Ireland has to pay over Germany to borrow from investors in the bond market has hit its highest level since the euro was created in 1999 (Specifically, 3.75 percentage points compared with 3.47 percentage points on Monday.) Prices of Irish bonds have fallen, sending the yield on the benchmark 10-year Irish bond above 6%. (Bond prices and yields move inversely.)
Greece isn’t faring much better. The yield on its 10-year note is nearly 12%, while its own “risk premium” over Germany has also blown higher. Portugal’s spreads are also weaker. Credit-default swaps for Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Greece have all jumped in price, suggesting investors are more worried about these countries defaulting on their debts

Source http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2010/09/07/europes-bond-market-tanks-again/

Struggling with the euro zone’s biggest budget deficit relative to its gross domestic product at more than 14% last year, Irish authorities are also grappling with the ballooning cost of bailing out the banks, especially state-owned Anglo Irish—a bill that has already hit €33 billion ($42.55 billion), or roughly 20% of Ireland’s GDP.

Source http://wsj.com

ON THE radio on Monday, Brian Lenihan spoke of “not showing his hand” to the European Commission. He suggested that we in Ireland had to “hold our nerve”. These phrases are not normally used in economic policy — rather, they come straight from the world of poker.
This language is appropriate as it probably best sums up the Government’s policy throughout the banking crisis — it has all been a big bluff.
Yesterday, the financial markets reacted to the gambler’s words by selling Irish bonds, thus driving the yield (at one stage) up from 5.78pc to 6.15pc.
Yields came down to 6.01pc, following rumours that the European Central Bank was buying Irish bonds. We are fast becoming a vassal state of the ECB, the only institution prepared to buy Irish bonds.
The ECB is doing this for one reason — to protect the bondholders of Anglo from the default which has to come. In this little game, we issue expensive IOUs at 6pc that the ECB buys with money it prints for nothing to keep open zombie banks that don’t lend. The ECB is doing this not to protect you, but to protect rogue creditors who have no right to expect that they will be paid.
source http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2010/09/08/we-dont-have-an-economic-policy-its-all-just-a-big-bluff

Ireland has effectively nationalised its financial system for two years: it will guarantee deposits and debts for the country’s six biggest banks until 2010. This means it is assuming potential liabilities of around EUR550bn, compared with existing government debt of EUR40bn and overall GDP of EUR160bn. The move has increased pressure on the UK authorities to boost the size of the deposit guarantee.
The move was designed to shore up rapidly dwindling confidence in the banking sector. Irish financial sector shares plummeted early this week amid fears that it is particularly dependent on the frozen interbank market; loan to deposit ratios are 150% in Ireland compared with 130% in the rest of the EU, Sebastian Orsi of Merrion pointed out in the FT. Banks have been “bleeding money” as the Irish property and construction markets have tanked, noted Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in The Daily Telegraph. Ireland has become the first eurozone member to slide into recession now that the property bubble has burst and consumption has slumped.
What next?
By effectively betting its economy, Ireland has “certainly upped the stakes in the confidence game that is banking”, as Alphaville said in the FT. The hope is that the guarantee will improve Irish banks’ access to funds on world markets. But Ireland may be in for a bumpy ride. Note that the banks’ assets are highly concentrated in “fast-fading” UK and Irish property, said Lex in the FT. At Anglo-Irish Bank, the exposure to these two sectors is 80% and at Bank of Ireland and Allied Irish it is 71% and 60% respectively. And if markets keep withholding wholesale funds from “property plays”, then the government “may have to reconsider that guarantee”.
source https://info.moneyweek.com/article.php?p_id=10807

Comment :
“A picture is worth a thousand words”

I have posted the various sources above in support my own opinion that the government are totally on the wrong economic path and what’s even worse they are hell bent on sticking with this disastrous policy all logic seems to have disappeared and we are becoming slaves to the mantra we must spin ourselves out of this mess no matter what
Brian Lenihans language is increasingly that of a gambler (read DavidMcWilliams latest posting on this Link above)
David is one of the country’s finest economists and it would appear this government are choosing to ignore his sound advice just like they did on the eve of the first bank blanket guarantees
This is the time when the government should be getting the best minds in the country to come up with a real solutions to the financial crises that is after all their own making
Whether you agree with me or not, that facts are the well informed lenders (Bond Traders) of the world certainly do so, and what’s more they are getting very nervous at the lack of this governments realistic economic road map
The constant dirp drip feed of ever more disastrous figures emanating from Anglo and NAMA should frighten all of us
The Governments belligerence and a misplaced sense of loyalty to their pals a la Galway tent has to be abandoned pronto, and these gamblers must face the music themselves
The Irish nation cannot afford the commitments made by incompetent government minsters that are overwhelmed by the sheer complexity that is the Derivatives market
It is just plain stupid to expect civil servants who have no training in this field to advice party indoctrinated con men to understand these financial nuclear bombs
There are only a hand full of people in the world that understand these complex financial instruments ,even after 10 years of market participation myself I still don’t know anybody in the field that has successfully traded their way into profit
These financial instruments were created by the largest financial corporations in the world (AIG, JP Morgan, Citi etc and they were designed as far as I can make out to protect themselves as they were the market makers as well as the insurer and we all know that insurance companies are notorious in looking after themselves
the bottom line here is the markets have now copped on to the spin the Irish Government have been spewing out on the world’s airways and they Ireland Ink has a set repayment capability and that is now breached and any further surprises coming from Anglo Irish and Allied or Bank of Ireland is going to push this little country over the Default Bridge
And with the current Captain on the Irish Titanic ignoring the warnings of Icebergs dead ahead what does he do?
Call for more Ice for his pals cocktail,s

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