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Archive for the ‘Brian Cowen’ Category

Markets are right to be worried

Markets are right to be worried — ‘final’ €50bn to fix banks looks like tip of iceberg

Sunday October 10 2010

THE soaring cost of bailing out the banks means that Ireland is now locked out of the bond markets.

Lenders are terrified that they might not get their money back. And they are right to be worried because the real cost of fixing our broken banking system is almost certain to far exceed even the €50bn figure that has so terrified Irish taxpayers and the international financial markets.

Last week, Finance Minister Brian Lenihan announced that the cost of fixing Ireland’s broken banking system had risen once again. He put the “final” cost of sorting out the Anglo mess at between €29bn and €34bn, up from the €25bn figure that had been previously indicated by official sources.

Just for good measure Mr Lenihan also announced that AIB would require an extra €3bn of new capital while the Irish Nationwide needs an extra €2.4bn.

When the estimated cost of bailing out each institution is totted up, the total comes to just more than €50bn.

That is a truly terrifying figure, the equivalent of about 40pc of the value of this year’s economic output as measured by GNP.

The reaction to Mr Lenihan’s announcement was immediate and severe. The government was forced to cancel the last three monthly bond auctions of 2010 as international investors insisted that the government devise a credible fiscal strategy; while the political system went into a deep shock from which the only escape route is likely to be an early general election.

Unfortunately, things aren’t as bad as Mr Lenihan told us last week.

They are almost certainly much worse.

First things first. Even the €34bn cost of bailing out Anglo, which the government insists is a “worst-case scenario”, will almost certainly be exceeded. That is the view of ratings agency Standard & Poor’s, whose bearish stance on the likely cost of the Irish bank bailout has consistently been vindicated by events.

For what it is worth, some analysts now reckon that bailing out Anglo will cost up to €40bn.

This would push up the total cost of fixing our banks to €55bn.

However, horrific and all as it might be, a €55bn tab for sorting out the banks might be just about bearable if we and our creditors could be confident that this was the final figure. Unfortunately we can’t be sure that the meter will stop running at even this enormous figure.

When one looks closely at the figures published last week it is clear that, with the exception of Anglo, the extra capital being pumped into the banks relates almost exclusively to losses suffered on loans being sold to Nama or, in the case of AIB and Bank of Ireland, loans of between €5m and €20m that had originally been destined for Nama but will not now be transferred to the state’s bad bank.

Which, of course, begs the question, if the banks have suffered such horrific losses on the loans they are transferring to Nama, about a fifth of their total peak lending, what sort of losses can they expect on their other loans?

When it published its half-year results on August 4, AIB revealed that, after transferring about €23bn of bad loans to Nama and the disposal of its Polish, American and UK interests, that it would have a loan book of about €81bn.

This loan book will include €27bn of Irish residential mortgages, €32bn of business banking loans, €16bn of commercial and SME loans and €6bn of personal loans.

Over at Bank of Ireland, the composition of its expected post-Nama and disposals loan book looks remarkably similar to that its great rival.

Bank of Ireland is expecting to have a total loan book of €82bn of which €28bn will be Irish mortgages, €31bn of non-property lending to SMEs and other corporates, €24bn of property and construction lending and €4bn of consumer lending.

Meanwhile, Irish Life & Permanent‘s mortgage banking subsidiary Permanent TSB, which has transferred no bad loans to Nama and has not had to be bailed out by the taxpayer, had a €38.7bn loan book at the end of June which included €27.6bn of Irish residential mortgages, €8.1bn of UK residential mortgages, €2.3bn of commercial lending and €1.5bn of consumer lending.

What are the odds on at least some of the banks’ post-Nama loan books going bad?

Between them the six Irish-owned banks had €99bn of residential mortgages on their books at the end of June. With house prices now down by at least 50pc from the peak and still falling, a significant writedown in the bank’s mortgage loans books is inevitable.

Even a 20pc writedown would cost the banks a further €20bn in fresh loan losses.

The combined €50bn that AIB, Bank of Ireland and the Permo have lent to SMEs and other companies must also be vulnerable to further, substantial writedowns as is their €11.5bn of personal lending. And as for the banks’ non-Nama property and construction lending, I’d be very surprised if it wasn’t cause for a few sleepless nights among the surviving bank bosses.

Add it all up and it is clear that even the €55bn estimate for the cost of bailing out the banking system will be comfortably exceeded, with Standard & Poor’s now putting the likely figure at €90bn.

The way things are going, I suspect that the S&P estimate could well turn out to be a floor, below which the cost won’t fall, rather than a ceiling, above which it won’t rise.

Comment :

             +derivative Losses 200,000,000:00?

This figure is creeping up and up and up and This Minster Lenihan is definitely not firing on all cylinders!

He is going in the wrong direction, Mr Lenihan is still digging an even bigger hole and I think we will not now be able to get out of it without massive help from the IMF.

With the available figures still dirp, dirp, dripping out of the Finance Department I now believe we are looking at a possible 150,000,000,000:00 (Billion) but without a look at the books in Bank of Ireland, Allied Irish bank, and Irish Life and Permanent, remember these institutions are issuing their own bonds and the government are guaranteeing these bonds.

There are bonds coming up for renewal to the tune of 30 to 45 Billion from the various banks and I can’t see how the banks are going to re-finance under the current circumstances.

Needless to say we are not been given the full figures and I expect that Lenihan and his gang of financial terrorists will try to sneak out more bad figures soon ,this would more than likely be done using cronies from the various media they control .

At this stage we the public have been softened up and there is likely to be more and more drip drip feed of bad news.

The government’s attempt to con the opposition parties into a half-baked union is most telling and this tells me that the real figures must be really bad!  Even worse that my figures as I keep reminding people there is no mention of the huge losses on their derivatives trades by the  various banks and these losses will have to be brought out for all to see sometime .  
    
This brings a whole new meaning to the praise “Well connected”
This stinks to high heaven!

http://thepressnet.com/2010/10/03/nama-changes-were-designed-to-keep-bank-of-ireland-private/

and http://thepressnet.com/2010/10/02/majority-of-countrys-banking-system-nationalized/

Still can’t face up to the reality,Cowen & Lenihan’s Bunker Mentality

Listening back on this recording  http://thepressnet.com/2010/09/14/8864/

I noticed again the attempt by Cowen to label the moderator a “defeatist” It occurred to me that Cowen and lenihan are increasingly using words one would have heard in the last days of the Bunker in Berlin May 1945 So we are now labelled “Defeatist” those of us that want to call a spade a spade, reality is reality and no bully boy tactics by Cowen or lenihan will change the fact the economy is on its knees and this is a result of the mismanagement of Cowen and Lenihan Here is a extract of an article I picked up yesterday in the Irish Times by Fintan O Tool, here he has spotted the language Brian Lenihan is using and again only listening again to my recording of the radio interview with Cowen does it become more apparent these two guys have totally lost the plot and must be removed as a matter of urgency for the country’s sake!

Unable to admit putting his country in this hideous mess, Brian Lenihan has turned further and further away from reality, writes FINTAN O’TOOLE WHEN SOMEONE says a thing once, it may be a slip of the tongue. When they repeat it, it is an indication of the way their mind is working. Thus it is with a phrase that Brian Lenihan used twice last Thursday, when he was explaining why “the cheapest bank bailout in the world” has turned into a €50 billion nightmare. The glimpse it gives of what is going on at the back of his mind is truly terrifying. Early in the day, on Morning Ireland , Lenihan remarked of his plan to pump another €3.7 billion into Allied Irish Banks (bringing the total so far to €7.2 billion) that it would help restore AIB to “its former greatness”. The phrase was so breathtakingly brainless that I assumed it was just one of those cliches that sometimes invades the mind when it is on rhetorical auto-pilot. But, no. Later, on Prime Time , Lenihan announced that the entire banking system would be restored to “the greatness it once had”. Oh dear God – he really means “greatness”. Do we really have to ask what constituted the “former greatness” of AIB? Was it the collusion with a massive tax fraud on the State in the 1980s and 1990s? Was it the overcharging of customers to the tune of €66 million? Read more at source http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2010/1005/1224280400401.html

German war reparations

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It took Germany 90 years to pay off 25 billion in war reparations for the First World War.
The US gulf will need 20$ Billion to clean it up .

Ireland is now been saddled with debts of 36.5 billion and that’s just Anglo Irish Bank plus the other banks another 14 billion a nice round 50,000,000,000:00
How long will it take for this little country to pay off this private debt?
Cowen and Lenihan will go down in history as the most incompetent politicians in Irish History and the leaders of the opposition parties coming in close behind.
This country needs competent men and woman in the dail and not selfish leaches sucking our country dry.

Press Statement 30 September 2010

Central Bank of Ireland

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Press Statement 30 September 2010

The Central Bank today (Thursday 30 September) published its assessment of the capital requirements resulting from the recently announced restructuring of Anglo Irish Bank.

In addition, the Central Bank has published the outcome of its review of the capital requirements of those Irish banks subject to the Prudential Capital Assessment Review (PCAR) exercise, in light of the estimated remaining haircuts to be applied by NAMA.

Anglo Irish Bank Restructuring

The Central Bank has assessed the injection of capital needed to meet minimum regulatory requirements under both a base, or central, scenario, taking account of expected losses, and under a severe hypothetical stress scenario.

This assessment has been applied to both the proposed Funding Bank and the Asset Recovery Bank that will be created. The total capital required for both institutions under the base, or expected loss, scenario is €29.3billion.

Under the stress scenario, in the event that unexpected additional losses are incurred, the Central Bank estimates that an additional €5 billion of capital could potentially be required.

A detailed description of the capital requirements and the methodology used are set out in the attached statement.

Implementation of PCAR Requirements for Irish Banks

The Central Bank has advised the Irish banks subject to the Prudential Capital Assessment Review (PCAR) that the year-end deadline for meeting the standards remains in place. The Central Bank has reviewed the requirements based on the higher NAMA haircuts announced today and which were not available when the original calculations were conducted on 30 March.

The outcome of the review is as follows:

AIB

In light of the higher NAMA haircuts, the Central Bank has advised AIB that it will be required to raise an additional €3 billion by 31 December.

Bank of Ireland

Bank of Ireland already has sufficient capital to meet the PCAR standard in the light of the higher NAMA haircuts.

EBS

NAMA has not indicated haircut estimates for EBS at this point. Given the small size of the portfolio of loans, the impact of higher haircuts is unlikely to be significant. However, the Central Bank has informed EBS that it will need to take account of higher haircut levels of up to 60% in its capital planning and it should advise acquirers accordingly.

IL&P

IL&P does not have loans in NAMA and its PCAR is unaffected.

INBS

A PCAR exercise has not yet been conducted for INBS in light of the continuing discussion on its restructuring plans.

A more detailed description of the PCAR review is in the attached statement.

Speaking today, Central Bank Governor, Patrick Honohan, said: “Taking account of NAMA’s estimates of future haircuts has implications for required capital injections which need to be acted on now.  The new calculations give clarity and as much certainty as can reasonably be expected to the budgetary cost of the bank restructuring.  The additional budgetary costs – and in particular the higher debt-to-GDP ratio that is implied – confirm the need for a reprogramming of the budgetary profile, though it is important to recognise that the bulk of this reprogramming need arises from other sources.  Today’s announcements take the Irish banking system closer to a final resolution of its restructuring, which is a prerequisite for sustained economic recovery.”

The Head of Financial Regulation at the Central Bank, Matthew Elderfield, said: “The assessment we have published today of the costs of Anglo’s restructuring reflect careful analysis of information from a range of sources.  It also includes a projection based on a prudent hypothetical stress scenario which gives guidance as to the likely upper bound of those costs.  At the same time, we have today confirmed that we are pressing ahead with our plans to require the Irish banks to meet more rigorous capital requirements which are closely aligned with the new international standards set by the Basel Committee and to do so by the year end.  As part of this process, we have advised the banks that they need to take account of developments in the NAMA haircuts which have occurred during the course of the year.  This ensures that the banks’ year end capital position fully meets the objectives of our Prudential Capital Assessment Review process.”

Lenihan logic: heads you win and tails you win for the bondholders

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Irish Finance Minister Demonstrates that he doesn’t believe in Capitalism
By The Fundamental Analyst, on September 24th, 2010
Here again we see another case of those that embraced capitalism on the way up, shudder at the consequences when things go the other way. Take the latest comments from the Irish Finance Minister, from Reuters:
Irish finmin says no chance banks, govt will default
DUBLIN, Sept 22 (Reuters) – It is unthinkable that Ireland or its banks would default on senior debt, Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said on Wednesday.
Opposition politicians and some media commentators have called on Lenihan to force bondholders in Anglo Irish Bank [ANGIB.UL] to take some of the hit for the nationalised lender’s massive losses, which are a major burden on the exchequer.
“It’s unthinkable that Ireland would default on senior debt or that Ireland’s banks would default on senior debt,” Lenihan told Reuters in parliament.
“Ireland is not prepared to be some kind of social experiment for bank default.”
Why is it unthinkable? I’m not up to date with the extent of Anglo Irish Bank’s problems, but if the losses are big enough to eat through all subordinated debt then senior debt is next in line, simple. This is what happens in a restructuring, equity holders get taken out and bondholders take a haircut. Maybe the losses aren’t that big that senior bondholders need to take their lumps, but even so, to make a blanket statement such as the Irish FM has made demonstrates that he is firmly of the belief that bondholders aren’t responsible for their mistakes and that capitalism should be suspended when things go pear-shaped.
 
Comment:
There you have it once again Lenihan is way out of touch with the norms of capitalism
Its all about risk that’s why bondholders get to demand such high interest payments because there taking a gamble and if things go pair shaped they go and take a bath
Lenihan has a logic of heads you win and tails you win for the bondholders and they love him for it!
Maybe it would be better if Lenihan was in charge,”lets shift Cowen “me thinks the bondholders might be thinking”!

Ahern turns up the heat on Cowen (Let the fun begin!)

Ahern turns up the heat on Cowen

TAOISEACH Brian Cowen‘s position looked increasingly precarious last night as a cabinet minister confirmed Fianna Fail TDs were contacting senior party figures to express concerns about his leadership.

A string of ministers came out to publicly back Mr Cowen, but several, while expressing their support, also made it clear that the situation within Fianna Fail was serious and volatile.

As the fallout from the Taoiseach‘s disastrous ‘Morning Ireland‘ interview escalated rather than receded:

  • Justice Minister Dermot Ahern admitted “worried” TDs were in touch with him.
  • Foreign Affairs Minister Micheal Martin repeated his belief that “lessons had to be learned”.
  • Tourism Minister Mary Hanafin said people expected senior ministers to be able to communicate properly.

Despite the fallout over the deeply embarrassing party “think-in” in Galway, ministers doggedly stuck to the line yesterday that the Taoiseach had suffered from a “nasal” problem and not from over-drinking.

Yet bizarrely, at the same time they spoke of how Mr Cowen had had “an off-day” and called the interview “an unfortunate incident”.

The confusing signals came as Mr Cowen again tried to reassure voters and colleagues there would not be any repeat of his late-night session. But in another inadequate interview performance, he struggled to find the words to restore confidence.

Speaking about his 3.30am debacle in Galway, the Taoiseach said he would be “a bit more cautious in terms of that aspect of how I conduct my social life”.

Mr Cowen’s efforts to contain criticism of the interview debacle came as the Green Party indicated it would not tolerate another embarrassing episode.

Fianna Fail backbenchers are still angry at the fallout from their leader’s performance and some have contacted ministers, including Mr Ahern — a development that could be very damaging for Mr Cowen.

But showing the damage caused to the Government by the affair, Environment Minister John Gormley admitted the controversy was a distraction from the Coalition’s work.

Mr Cowen now faces into a crucial 48-hour period as backbench unhappiness leaves his future on a knife-edge.

After days of denials of party rumblings, Mr Ahern’s surprising admission of concerns over this week’s events added to the controversy.

“I have spoken to backbenchers since last Tuesday and, yes, obviously there are people, you know, who are worried about what happened on Tuesday. But equally so, I think there is a clear understanding that our situation as a country is too vital and too serious for us to be diverted by, in effect, a party row at this stage,” he said on the RTE ‘Six One News’.

Ms Hanafin conceded she had questioned why the Taoiseach did the interview when she heard it. “You certainly expect somebody at our level who is giving an interview to be able to communicate properly,” she said in Donegal.

Mr Martin again admitted the affair was damaging. “Clearly we have lessons to learn and we will work on . . . future communications strategies,” he said.

Finance Minister Brian Lenihan also came out in support of Mr Cowen, saying “the matter (was) closed”.

Despite expressing confidence in Mr Cowen’s leadership, Mr Gormley repeatedly refused to say what he would do if the Taoiseach put in another below-par performance.

He claimed such questions were “hypothetical”.

Within Fianna Fail, there was a strong sense Mr Cowen was still under immense pressure. “Everybody is very nervous,” a senior party source said.

But a veteran TD said he did not believe a formal heave was in the offing as nobody had been canvassing support for a motion of no confidence. “They’d need to be on to a middle-ground fellah like me if that was happening,” the TD said.

Mr Cowen said he would not get involved in speculation about a potential leadership heave in Fianna Fail.

He said he had learned not to be found in a similar position again and would need to leave social functions sooner.

“I think such is the atmosphere of politics today and perhaps the way people tell you things and how things can go off on a tangent very quickly, I’d be more cautious about that aspect of how I conduct my social life,” he said.

Tanaiste Mary Coughlan was critical of the scrutiny politicians were under.

“If we as politicians and as human beings are not allowed to live in this country with the freedom that every person else has it’s a very sad day.”

– Fionnan Sheahan, Aine Kerr and Eimear Ni Bhraonain

Irish Independent link http://www.independent.ie/national-news/ahern-turns-up-the-heat-on-cowen-2342896.html

Comment:

This only confirms that this shower will stop at nothing to stay in power even if it means they turn on their own leader to do so!

They are so engrossed with the idea of staying within the walls of Lenster House their own parallel universe, where they are pampered like lords and the riff raff ordinary surfs like us only occasionally get to be invited for a few minutes

The infighting is quite common amongst rats; they will turn on each other for their own survival just like Fianna Fail is now doing!

We the public will now be told that the new leader is the person to lead this country into the next decade and we should all put our shoulders to the collective wheel once again but with renewed vigour, but the leader will stay behind to watch over the gear of course while we the ordinary surfs are expected to do the pushing!

We can expect whoever might emerge, to distance themselves from the mistakes of the past

And blame it on everybody else in the country.

Let the fun begin!

Should the transfer of Anglo’s remaining NAMA tranches be put on hold ?

from source http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/author/namawinelake/

Should the transfer of Anglo’s remaining NAMA tranches be put on hold pending clarification of Anglo’s total costs?
namawinelake | August 27, 2010 at 10:15 am
Anglo has transferred a cumulative total of €16bn of its NAMA-bound loans in tranches 1 and 2, leaving an estimated €20bn in its remaining tranches if the estimates in NAMA’s revised Business Plan and accompanying tranche 2 detail are correct (what introduces some doubt is the claim two weeks ago by the Anglo CEO Mike Aynsley that €2-4bn of NAMA-bound loans in the UK and US may be “reclassified” in agreement with NAMA).
If tranches 1 and 2 are anything to go by, NAMA will in future pay Anglo a Long Term Economic Value (LEV) premium of 10-12% of the current market value of the loans. So if €20bn is still valid as the face value of the remaining Anglo loans and they have a current market value of 45% of their face value, then NAMA will be paying €0.9-1.1bn above the current market value of the loans. That is a substantial sum of money to be gifting a bank whose future is being debated as we speak at the EU with a European preliminary view on the future of Anglo due in weeks.
The perpetual murmurs of disquiet about Anglo have grown substantially in volume this week. Standard and Poor’s downgrade of Ireland’s credit rating was predicated in part on their assessment of the increased cost of bailing out Anglo at €35bn. Last week in Beijing the Governor of the Central Bank broke the news that “Anglo may impose a NET [my emphasis] cost to the Government of about €22-€25 billion”. A net cost of course could be a gross cost of €35bn with €10bn recouped over time (eg through sale of a government stake in Anglo’s Newbank, redemption of NAMA bonds at face value rather than the accounting value which might assume a large discount). Trinity College economics professor Constantin Gurdgiev repeated his view that Anglo could incur losses of “€33bn in mid-range case, rising to €38.6bn in the worst case scenario”. It is not clear if these losses equate to a net cost to the State as there may already be provisions for these losses and Anglo has a (small) capital base. Today in the Irish Times, former Ulster Bank chief economist Pat McArdle suggests that, in an attempt to improve Ireland’s credit rating “we could try to give greater certainty regarding the Anglo bailout cost, possibly by postponing all other transfers to Nama until Anglo is taken care of.” Other calls this week came from the domestic politics (FG’s Finance spokesman, Michael Noonan calling for a debate at balance sheet level to assess the different options for Anglo) and the Financial Times editorial which today says “it is time to staunch the bleeding. As Irish state guarantees near their expiry date, some banks will not be able to refinance their balances. The government should prepare insolvent banks for forced debt-for-equity swaps, which would instantly recapitalise the banks in question and cap the government’s exposure”. This blog has expressed concerns about the non-NAMA losses at Anglo and whether these are being realistically assessed at present.
Last weekend NAMA paid Anglo a LEV premium of €270m on its latest tranche of loans, a considerable gifted sum in normal times but small in comparison with the expected €1bn of LEV premiums on the remainder of Anglo’s NAMA loan book. Has the tipping point now come whereby Anglo’s future is consensually decided (consensus impedes speed of action but the sums involved have grown to state of war proportions for the Irish state)? And until Anglo’s costs are clarified, should NAMA put the transfer of future loans on hold as these future transfers will involve the State paying substantial sums in excess of the true value of the loans.

Comment:

We did not have to wait for the past 18 months to expire to suddenly find out that NAMA was going to end up paying way over the odds for the various toxic assets from the Banks, never mind the Crap it was getting from ANGLO IRISH BANK
The simple fact is that from the start we the ordinary Joe soaps could smell that a sweetheart deal has been done by the Fianna Fail Government with the establishment of what is now openly been acknowledged as the largest bail out in Irish corporate history and all for the benefit for the golden circle, the chosen few, the cronies and leaches and hangers-on of the Fianna Fail party

This is now seen as a fraudulent transfer of wealth from the citizens of Ireland to a group of irresponsible gamblers, with the help of economic traitors within the government and a totally incompetent regulatory authority that at this stage one must ask if it was designed to be so, in order to facilitate this fraud in the first place !

It is the duty of every citizen to make sure that the next tranche 3 of toxic loans from Anglo-Irish Bank should not take place and indeed an independent international enquire should be set up to investigate exactly who were the beneficiaries of the billions that have already gone into this toxic Toilet, who was responsible for the approval ludicrous high valuations put on these worthless toxic assets and whether there was a conflict of interest at any level
The Fraudulent actions of Government ministers to be exposed and all individuals brought before the courts and jailed on convictions, no golden handshakes or beefed up pensions to be paid out to any individuals found to have felicitated in the cover-up of fraudulent actions or helped to hide relevant information that would have expose this monstrous fraud on the Irish taxpayers
This continued drip ,drip feed of lies must be stopped and the truth must be put before the people
In the form of a general election or a referendum on the issue
I call on all the opposition parties to declare that they will not honour any of the fraudulent guarantees given to the international bondholders by way of an extended government guarantee given in the first place without the consent of the Irish people
I dispute the authority of any government to place me and the hundreds of thousands of its citizens into a kind of financial enslavement to corrupt financial institutions that then are enabled to legally rob me of my family home, my savings, and my prosperity as a consequence of their corrupt practices.
As a result of the establishment of NAMA the countries financial institutions have effectively sucked dry the financial resources of the country for the next generation.
Thus robbing me and the majority of the countries citizens the necessary means to independently provide for their family’s and so forcing families to become dependent on the state for handouts
These actions are a clear breach of the rights guaranteed to every citizen of Ireland by the Irish constitution (see PDF Here Constitution of Ireland) and so renders the establishment of NAMA illegal without first haven put it to a referendum to the citizens of Ireland
Please stand up for our constitutional rights , get active and  put an end to this  madness

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