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Should the transfer of Anglo’s remaining NAMA tranches be put on hold ?

from source http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/author/namawinelake/

Should the transfer of Anglo’s remaining NAMA tranches be put on hold pending clarification of Anglo’s total costs?
namawinelake | August 27, 2010 at 10:15 am
Anglo has transferred a cumulative total of €16bn of its NAMA-bound loans in tranches 1 and 2, leaving an estimated €20bn in its remaining tranches if the estimates in NAMA’s revised Business Plan and accompanying tranche 2 detail are correct (what introduces some doubt is the claim two weeks ago by the Anglo CEO Mike Aynsley that €2-4bn of NAMA-bound loans in the UK and US may be “reclassified” in agreement with NAMA).
If tranches 1 and 2 are anything to go by, NAMA will in future pay Anglo a Long Term Economic Value (LEV) premium of 10-12% of the current market value of the loans. So if €20bn is still valid as the face value of the remaining Anglo loans and they have a current market value of 45% of their face value, then NAMA will be paying €0.9-1.1bn above the current market value of the loans. That is a substantial sum of money to be gifting a bank whose future is being debated as we speak at the EU with a European preliminary view on the future of Anglo due in weeks.
The perpetual murmurs of disquiet about Anglo have grown substantially in volume this week. Standard and Poor’s downgrade of Ireland’s credit rating was predicated in part on their assessment of the increased cost of bailing out Anglo at €35bn. Last week in Beijing the Governor of the Central Bank broke the news that “Anglo may impose a NET [my emphasis] cost to the Government of about €22-€25 billion”. A net cost of course could be a gross cost of €35bn with €10bn recouped over time (eg through sale of a government stake in Anglo’s Newbank, redemption of NAMA bonds at face value rather than the accounting value which might assume a large discount). Trinity College economics professor Constantin Gurdgiev repeated his view that Anglo could incur losses of “€33bn in mid-range case, rising to €38.6bn in the worst case scenario”. It is not clear if these losses equate to a net cost to the State as there may already be provisions for these losses and Anglo has a (small) capital base. Today in the Irish Times, former Ulster Bank chief economist Pat McArdle suggests that, in an attempt to improve Ireland’s credit rating “we could try to give greater certainty regarding the Anglo bailout cost, possibly by postponing all other transfers to Nama until Anglo is taken care of.” Other calls this week came from the domestic politics (FG’s Finance spokesman, Michael Noonan calling for a debate at balance sheet level to assess the different options for Anglo) and the Financial Times editorial which today says “it is time to staunch the bleeding. As Irish state guarantees near their expiry date, some banks will not be able to refinance their balances. The government should prepare insolvent banks for forced debt-for-equity swaps, which would instantly recapitalise the banks in question and cap the government’s exposure”. This blog has expressed concerns about the non-NAMA losses at Anglo and whether these are being realistically assessed at present.
Last weekend NAMA paid Anglo a LEV premium of €270m on its latest tranche of loans, a considerable gifted sum in normal times but small in comparison with the expected €1bn of LEV premiums on the remainder of Anglo’s NAMA loan book. Has the tipping point now come whereby Anglo’s future is consensually decided (consensus impedes speed of action but the sums involved have grown to state of war proportions for the Irish state)? And until Anglo’s costs are clarified, should NAMA put the transfer of future loans on hold as these future transfers will involve the State paying substantial sums in excess of the true value of the loans.

Comment:

We did not have to wait for the past 18 months to expire to suddenly find out that NAMA was going to end up paying way over the odds for the various toxic assets from the Banks, never mind the Crap it was getting from ANGLO IRISH BANK
The simple fact is that from the start we the ordinary Joe soaps could smell that a sweetheart deal has been done by the Fianna Fail Government with the establishment of what is now openly been acknowledged as the largest bail out in Irish corporate history and all for the benefit for the golden circle, the chosen few, the cronies and leaches and hangers-on of the Fianna Fail party

This is now seen as a fraudulent transfer of wealth from the citizens of Ireland to a group of irresponsible gamblers, with the help of economic traitors within the government and a totally incompetent regulatory authority that at this stage one must ask if it was designed to be so, in order to facilitate this fraud in the first place !

It is the duty of every citizen to make sure that the next tranche 3 of toxic loans from Anglo-Irish Bank should not take place and indeed an independent international enquire should be set up to investigate exactly who were the beneficiaries of the billions that have already gone into this toxic Toilet, who was responsible for the approval ludicrous high valuations put on these worthless toxic assets and whether there was a conflict of interest at any level
The Fraudulent actions of Government ministers to be exposed and all individuals brought before the courts and jailed on convictions, no golden handshakes or beefed up pensions to be paid out to any individuals found to have felicitated in the cover-up of fraudulent actions or helped to hide relevant information that would have expose this monstrous fraud on the Irish taxpayers
This continued drip ,drip feed of lies must be stopped and the truth must be put before the people
In the form of a general election or a referendum on the issue
I call on all the opposition parties to declare that they will not honour any of the fraudulent guarantees given to the international bondholders by way of an extended government guarantee given in the first place without the consent of the Irish people
I dispute the authority of any government to place me and the hundreds of thousands of its citizens into a kind of financial enslavement to corrupt financial institutions that then are enabled to legally rob me of my family home, my savings, and my prosperity as a consequence of their corrupt practices.
As a result of the establishment of NAMA the countries financial institutions have effectively sucked dry the financial resources of the country for the next generation.
Thus robbing me and the majority of the countries citizens the necessary means to independently provide for their family’s and so forcing families to become dependent on the state for handouts
These actions are a clear breach of the rights guaranteed to every citizen of Ireland by the Irish constitution (see PDF Here Constitution of Ireland) and so renders the establishment of NAMA illegal without first haven put it to a referendum to the citizens of Ireland
Please stand up for our constitutional rights , get active and  put an end to this  madness

These stooges obviously don’t read the papers

More proof that the Banks are in fact calling to tune with regards to the running of our country
Cowen and Lenihan have swallowed hook line and sinker the notion from the other Bank Lords that no Irish Bank must be allowed to fail because of the damage that will be done to the financial viability of our nation state
Wake up lads nobody would touch us with a mile long barge pole!
These stooges obviously don’t read the papers and they sure don’t take sensible advice even when the pay through the nose for it.
Look at this article U.S. Bank Failures In 2010 Surpass 100
If the US the center of capitalism in the world can close down 103 Banks this year alone we in Ireland can let a corrupt private Bank go down the Toxic Toilet it has made for itself!
It’s like telling the Captain of the Titanic there is an Iceberg dead ahead and there response is
The Titanic is unsinkable according to the instruction manual and so we should stay the course

Why is NAMA calming that it was not a public authority?

EU Commissioner’s preliminary decision on NAMA
Who is controlling NAMA?
Why is NAMA calming that it was not a public authority?
Is it in order to be able to escape having to supply information on its activities to the public via Freedom of information act?
see what the EU Commissioner’s preliminary decision is 35189551-NAMA-Preliminary-Decision-Reply
to recap this is what NAMA is suposed to be according to the finance Minster
10. NAMA is established as a separate corporate body with a board appointed by the
Minister for Finance under the control of the NTMA. NAMA as a corporate entity will
arrange and supervise the identification of property-backed loans on the books of the
qualifying financial institutions in the State but will delegate under its control the
purchase and management of those loans to a separately created special purpose
vehicle (the “SPV”)2. 95% of the consideration for the purchase of the loans will be
financed by securities guaranteed by the government and the remainder with non-
State guaranteed debt.

11. The SPV will be a separate legal entity with a subscribed capital of !100 million
with private investors owning 51% of the equity and the remainder owned by NAMA.
Given that the SPV is 95% funded by the State however, NAMA representatives on
the board of the SPV have a veto over all decisions of the SPV board that could
affect NAMA or the Government.

12. The SPV will seek to make a profit through the management of the acquired
assets during the lifetime of NAMA, however given that the SPV debt will be
guaranteed by the Government the distribution of the SPV profits to the private
shareholders will be capped and the remainder will accrue to the State.3 The details
of the distribution of the SPV profits are not publicly available.

Now who is in control of this SPC?
Why the investment arms of the three major Irish financial institutions (IL&P, BOI, AIB) thats who! The very vehicle that is there to rescue their own corrupt companies.link here

This is outrageous! Lenihian and his cronies has pulled a con on us all,
The same gangsters that have caused this whole financial collapse are now running NAMA.(The Bankrupt Banks ,have effectively taken control of 80 billion worth of assets for 100 million investment )the barging of the millennium
And it should come as no surprise to see the NAMA board try now to extract themselves from having to answer the hard questions from the probing general public through the Freedom of information act
When will the Irish people rise up and stop this fraud?

Central Bank report for Quarter 2

Just more lies?
Central Bank report for Quarter 2, NAMA’s resident and non-resident borrowers
namawinelake :
source http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2010/07/31/central-bank-report-for-quarter-2-nama%e2%80%99s-resident-and-non-resident-borrowers/

The wide-ranging quarterly Central Bank report and forecast published yesterday contains some interesting nuggets on NAMA and Irish property in general. On NAMA, it publishes information on the first tranche which hasn’t been publicly seen before, namely a split of the first tranche loans between resident and non-resident borrowers and also gives the provision the banks held for the loans transferred. The information is on page 39 of the report and is summarised here.

Of note is that the writedown by NAMA on the loans (49.6% in total) comprises a writedown by the banks themselves (23.7%) and NAMA’s additional write-down (26.9%) – given that Anglo’s accounts were published on 31st March, 2010 and INBS’s accounts were published on 9th April, 2010 and they each contained the government’s recapitalisations announced on 30th March, 2010, it is indeed amazing that they were showing their provisions at such a low level – was it a case that the accounts were produced many months earlier and only amended for the government’s injections of capital – wasn’t there any attempt to show the imminent NAMA haircuts? As to the split between resident and non-resident, I’m not sure how much can be deduced. For information the following were reported by the media (not confirmed by NAMA and indeed Paddy McKillen’s spokeswoman has denied that Paddy was in tranche 1) as being the Top 10 developers in the first tranche – spot the non-residents!
Liam Carroll
Bernard McNamara
Sean Mulryan
Derek Quinlan
Paddy McKillen
Treasury Holdings
Michael O’Flynn
Joe O’Reilly
Gerry Gannon
Gerry Barrett
As to what the Central Bank say in their report on page 39 about the write-downs with respect to residents and non-residents they are talking rubbish – the figures show that the resident loans had greater write-downs at both the banks and at NAMA.

We are been lied to by the Central Bank and the CSO

I see California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger declared a state of emergency over the state’s finances on Wednesday last , raising pressure on lawmakers to negotiate a state budget that is more than a month overdue and will need to close a $19 billion shortfall.
The deficit is 22 percent of the $85 billion general fund budget the governor signed last July for the fiscal year that ended in June, highlighting how the steep drop in California’s revenue due to recession, the housing slump, financial market turmoil and high unemployment have slashed its personal income tax collection.
So far I could be talking about Ireland but for one vital difference Schwarzenegger does not dance around the issues, he can’t afford to because of the effectiveness of the opposition. The fiscal facts are made known to all political parties and they have to come up with real solutions or face the people who are notoriously unforgiving
The yanks have no time for waffelers, gombeenmen and crooks unlike here in Ireland we are it seems are to be saddled with them !
I am indebted to Dr.Constantin Gurdgiev for having provided this excellent article on the subject
We are not been told the full facts of our financial situation and a lot more pain is on the way
We are been lied to by the Central Bank and the CSO who have a vested interest in talking up our economy

Thankfully we live in the age of the Internet and the real figures cannot be kept hidden from the people

Source http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/
Last week the State of California declared official emergency in relation to its fiscal shortfall. The problem, you see, is that torn between various vested interests, California’s legislature is unable to approve a new budget for 2011. The State deficit is currently running at $19bn, which represents 22% of the general budget fund. As a part of emergency declaration, Governor Schwarzenegger ordered three days off without pay per month beginning in August for tens of thousands of state employees to preserve the state’s cash to pay its debt, and for essential services. Now, 3 days out of each month represents roughly speaking a 14% straight cut across all lines of wages, pensions liabilities, overtime etc. A bit more dramatic than Irish Government 2-year old programme of cutting PS pay by an average of 5-7%.

May be the depth of California’s crisis is that much (say 2.5 times?) deeper than the fiscal crisis in Ireland?

Well, let’s compare, shall we? To do so, I took budgetary projections (latest available) for California and Ireland and put them side by side. I computed the extent of expected and planned deficits in both locations as a share of the net Government expenditure.
It turns out that in its state of emergency, ‘insolvent’ California is not 2-3 times worse off than Ireland. It is the ‘turning the corner’ Ireland that looks 1.5 times worse off than California. And not just now – all the way through the next 4 years.

So California – its Governor and Legislature – are at the very least trying to work through the summer to hammer out some sort of a resolution. Our own legislators and Government are out to enjoy a spot of recreation. And why not, you may ask, if the economy has finally turned the corner… err… sort of… for the 15th time since May 2009 that is…

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