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Archive for the ‘Bank Bailout in Ireland’ Category

More Billions to go down the Irish banks black holes

A report from Goodbody Stockbrokers has argued that the State cannot bear the losses from the banking crisis on its own.

In a report on Irish debt levels, Goodbody says there should be some form of risk-sharing with bondholders. But it adds that Ireland cannot do this on its own, and should push for a Europe-wide solution to the problem.

Goodbody says some €21 billion of bank debt should be restructured now – otherwise there will have to be a restructuring of Irish sovereign debt some time after 2014. Goodbody economist Dermot O’Leary says a new government must act urgently, as two-thirds of these bondholders are due to be repaid over the next 24 months.

Goodbody estimates the savings to the taxpayer could be around €10 billion if a 50% haircut were applied to the outstanding stock of unsecured, unguaranteed senior and subordinate bondholders.

The stockbroker believes Ireland will not reach the target of a 3% of GDP budget deficit by 2014, as foreseen under the four-year plan. Instead it believes the deficit will still be 4.3%, and the debt/GDP ratio will reach 115%.

The report also warns that reducing Ireland’s debt to levels required by the EU Stability & Growth Pact could take 20 years of tight budgets, even if the targets set out for the next four years are met.

Goodbody says the costs of the banking crisis make it less likely that Ireland will be able to pay back its debts in the future. It has raised its estimate of the cost of the banking crisis to €57.5 billion or 36% of gross domestic product.

‘The new Government has a small window of opportunity to convince the EU that it is in everyone’s interest to implement a more comprehensive reform of the banking system, which recognises that the Irish sovereign can no longer support the burden alone,’ said economist Dermot O’Leary.

Other options suggested by Goodbody are allowing the European Financial Stability Facility to directly recapitalise weak banking systems such as Ireland’s or facilitate the sale of Irish banking assets through an EU-wide insurance scheme.

The Goodbody report also says a reduction in the interest rates charged under the EU/IMF bail-out is needed. It calculates that every one-point reduction saves €675m a year in interest payments.

Ireland will need more EU help to raise funds – NCB

Stockbroker NCB has said that Ireland will need further EU help after 2013 to raise funds. It says a lowering of the interest rate on EU loans would give Ireland a higher probability of weaning itself off aid by 2014.

The ‘Ireland Moves Forward’ report also identifies state assets that could be the first to be sold off to help the Government finances, including those in the areas of forestry, energy, networks and ports.

The report says Ireland can look forward to a two-tier jobless recovery in 2011 with exports continuing to grow but domestic demand remaining weak. It says that the country’s competitiveness has improved significantly through the economic downturn.

It also points out that foreign direct investment in Ireland increased significantly last year, despite the global pot declining by 8%.

NCB says the country will be rolled into the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), the permanent EU crisis mechanism to replace the current European Financial Stability Fund.

It says a lowering of the interest rate on EU loans would give Ireland a higher probability of weaning itself off aid by 2014.

But it argues that any post-general election attempt renegotiation of the terms of the EU/IMF financial support for Ireland would lead to a deal that looks ‘very similar’ to the existing one.

It says the only changes would be in the exact details of how the €15 billion in budgetary corrections in coming years are achieved. However, NCB does see changes to the interest rate taken at a European level as likely in the coming months.

Today’s report says the Irish banks remain reliant on the state for capital and on the ECB and Irish Central Bank for liquidity. It adds that the March stress tests will determine whether any additional capital is needed apart from the €10 billion already earmarked for the financial institutions.

NCB predicts that the National Asset Management Agency will be a major ‘dictator of activity in 2011’ and beyond.

NCB says the VHI, Coillte, Rosslare Port as well as energy sector assets like Bord Gáis and the ESB with generation and supply assets should be sold off ahead of network assets such as distribution and transmission.

Today’s report also says there are further falls in house prices with a further 10% fall from peak levels expected.

NCB says that the Irish equity market is no longer a reflection of the Irish economy. The report notes that Irish derived profits now represent 17% of overall profit in its sample of recommended Irish shares. That compares to 36% in 2006.

It says publicly quoted food and construction companies are likely to be active acquirers of other businesses this year, while the area of renewable energy/cleantech industries continue to be an area of significant investor interest.

source:http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0208/economy-business.html

Comment:

As Max has been saying we are still not been told the real figures and we continue to get a drip drip feed on this financial disaster .Now Dukes comes out and tells us that we must pump 15 billion more into these toxic black holes that is now All of the Irish Banks

The two main contenders for the top jobs in the new Government are choosing to ignore the real problem that is because they are themselves not in a position to understand the debt of this financial meltdown

The Banks must be allowed to fold and a new commercial bank that has new capital be brought into existence. The new 15,000,000,000: and not forgetting the new 1,500,000,000 for Bank of Ireland  billion  could be better spent in a new jobs stimulus packet and new Bank credit for small business

For God sake anybody with a atom of sense should know this !

See the Republic of Ireland’s national debt mount up, a measure of the legacy the Irish Government is in the process of bequeathing to the children of Ireland:

€ 95,314,656,426

The FINANCE DUBLIN Irish Government Debt Clock was set at midnight on June 30th 2009, when it was €65.278 billion It updates the latest figures for the National Debt of Ireland. The clock is re-set periodically, to reflect changes in debt and deficit estimates from the Dept of Finance, the National Treasury Management Agency (NTMA), and independent economists.

He could be talking about Ireland

I agree we need to be concentrating of  industrious business ,why can’t I but Irish made shirts, shoes, Irish made bicycles, for god sake Irish made anything?

75% of our business here in Ireland is services, and we are now been forced to become debt servicing junkies by Cowen and his cronies.  

Unless we get up off our collective backsides we will be forced to vote in twiddle dummer when we get rid of twiddle Dee

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kja5aCYuocU&feature=player_embedded

spreads tell a story

CDS spreads  

Mr Lenihan, these figures tell the Irish People the real story the spreads cannot be dismissed and you are going to have to come clean on the true nature of the Banks derivatives time bomb

No more account gimmickry! No More drip, drip losses!

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Welcome to the crises of Credit

Welcome to the crises of Credit

Ireland is going through a crises of credit .The attached video clip explains how this crises happened

And hopefully also gives you an insight to the problem we are facing. So the next time Brian Lenihan says we have turned a corner or property has bottomed out you will know better.

We haven’t even begun to deal with the real problem and that is the derivatives time bomb.

Credit default swaps are mentioned in the video clip pay close attention to them!

With the government having embarked on the slash and burn budgets and now their attempt to get the opposition to sign up to even tougher budgets and all because they want to hand over the savings to international “investors” you don’t have to be a genius to see that this is bringing us down the road to destruction Why? Because they are taking away the means for the still paying home owners to pay their mortgages, people start losing their jobs and then they will start to default, already 90,000 people are behind in their mortgages payments and that is before we even get started on the even tougher budgets

Of 2011,2012,2013,2014 each budget will have to slice off approximately 5,000,000,000:00 each year of the budget deficit and that is not counting the billions that we have to pay in interest on the remanding national sovereign deficit plus the cost of bailing out Anglo Irish Bank, the bonds sold into the market by the rest of the banks .

The government has to come clean on the Credit default swaps and the leveraging exposures of the banks only then will we know the exact nature of the problems facing us.

We are nowhere near the bottom and lenihan knows it only too well and now the opposition parties have some idea as well! With the government’s insistence on bailing out the private bank Anglo Irish and their establishment of NAMA they have created the perfect storm. They have done exactly the wrong thing; they have rewarded the gambling investors and are cowering down to their demands to be bailed out and have the Irish taxpayers pay for their sour investments.

This course of action is not surprising because the government are receiving advice from the same advisers that advised the international investors to lend their funds to Anglo in the first place!

In a nutshell vested interests are running the finances of this country and when nothing is left they will consent to calling in the IMF who will have no other option then other than to sell off the country in bits and pieces to the same vested interests

What a scam!

How spin works

There you have it Brendan Keenan (Independent Newspapers) says the banks are fine swallowing the government’s line that the Irish Banks aren’t insolvent. Then we had Professor Morgan Kelly (UCD) advocating allowing the non retail (Anglo Irish Bank) banks to be let go! Then we had Kevin McConnell, Head of Research, and Bloxham Stockbrokers again touting the spin of the Government

Fast forward to today and see who was right surprise surprise why the noble professor.

Now what have learned out of this?

The establish news media in towing the government line and you can’t believe a word from the vested interests of people like Bloxham Stockbrokers who after all want to sell you shares in these Toxic banks Stockbrokers get paid in fees on trades. They have no incentive to talk down the market. It hasn’t gone unnoticed how they have been the cheerleaders for NAMA.

Markets are right to be worried

Markets are right to be worried — ‘final’ €50bn to fix banks looks like tip of iceberg

Sunday October 10 2010

THE soaring cost of bailing out the banks means that Ireland is now locked out of the bond markets.

Lenders are terrified that they might not get their money back. And they are right to be worried because the real cost of fixing our broken banking system is almost certain to far exceed even the €50bn figure that has so terrified Irish taxpayers and the international financial markets.

Last week, Finance Minister Brian Lenihan announced that the cost of fixing Ireland’s broken banking system had risen once again. He put the “final” cost of sorting out the Anglo mess at between €29bn and €34bn, up from the €25bn figure that had been previously indicated by official sources.

Just for good measure Mr Lenihan also announced that AIB would require an extra €3bn of new capital while the Irish Nationwide needs an extra €2.4bn.

When the estimated cost of bailing out each institution is totted up, the total comes to just more than €50bn.

That is a truly terrifying figure, the equivalent of about 40pc of the value of this year’s economic output as measured by GNP.

The reaction to Mr Lenihan’s announcement was immediate and severe. The government was forced to cancel the last three monthly bond auctions of 2010 as international investors insisted that the government devise a credible fiscal strategy; while the political system went into a deep shock from which the only escape route is likely to be an early general election.

Unfortunately, things aren’t as bad as Mr Lenihan told us last week.

They are almost certainly much worse.

First things first. Even the €34bn cost of bailing out Anglo, which the government insists is a “worst-case scenario”, will almost certainly be exceeded. That is the view of ratings agency Standard & Poor’s, whose bearish stance on the likely cost of the Irish bank bailout has consistently been vindicated by events.

For what it is worth, some analysts now reckon that bailing out Anglo will cost up to €40bn.

This would push up the total cost of fixing our banks to €55bn.

However, horrific and all as it might be, a €55bn tab for sorting out the banks might be just about bearable if we and our creditors could be confident that this was the final figure. Unfortunately we can’t be sure that the meter will stop running at even this enormous figure.

When one looks closely at the figures published last week it is clear that, with the exception of Anglo, the extra capital being pumped into the banks relates almost exclusively to losses suffered on loans being sold to Nama or, in the case of AIB and Bank of Ireland, loans of between €5m and €20m that had originally been destined for Nama but will not now be transferred to the state’s bad bank.

Which, of course, begs the question, if the banks have suffered such horrific losses on the loans they are transferring to Nama, about a fifth of their total peak lending, what sort of losses can they expect on their other loans?

When it published its half-year results on August 4, AIB revealed that, after transferring about €23bn of bad loans to Nama and the disposal of its Polish, American and UK interests, that it would have a loan book of about €81bn.

This loan book will include €27bn of Irish residential mortgages, €32bn of business banking loans, €16bn of commercial and SME loans and €6bn of personal loans.

Over at Bank of Ireland, the composition of its expected post-Nama and disposals loan book looks remarkably similar to that its great rival.

Bank of Ireland is expecting to have a total loan book of €82bn of which €28bn will be Irish mortgages, €31bn of non-property lending to SMEs and other corporates, €24bn of property and construction lending and €4bn of consumer lending.

Meanwhile, Irish Life & Permanent‘s mortgage banking subsidiary Permanent TSB, which has transferred no bad loans to Nama and has not had to be bailed out by the taxpayer, had a €38.7bn loan book at the end of June which included €27.6bn of Irish residential mortgages, €8.1bn of UK residential mortgages, €2.3bn of commercial lending and €1.5bn of consumer lending.

What are the odds on at least some of the banks’ post-Nama loan books going bad?

Between them the six Irish-owned banks had €99bn of residential mortgages on their books at the end of June. With house prices now down by at least 50pc from the peak and still falling, a significant writedown in the bank’s mortgage loans books is inevitable.

Even a 20pc writedown would cost the banks a further €20bn in fresh loan losses.

The combined €50bn that AIB, Bank of Ireland and the Permo have lent to SMEs and other companies must also be vulnerable to further, substantial writedowns as is their €11.5bn of personal lending. And as for the banks’ non-Nama property and construction lending, I’d be very surprised if it wasn’t cause for a few sleepless nights among the surviving bank bosses.

Add it all up and it is clear that even the €55bn estimate for the cost of bailing out the banking system will be comfortably exceeded, with Standard & Poor’s now putting the likely figure at €90bn.

The way things are going, I suspect that the S&P estimate could well turn out to be a floor, below which the cost won’t fall, rather than a ceiling, above which it won’t rise.

Comment :

             +derivative Losses 200,000,000:00?

This figure is creeping up and up and up and This Minster Lenihan is definitely not firing on all cylinders!

He is going in the wrong direction, Mr Lenihan is still digging an even bigger hole and I think we will not now be able to get out of it without massive help from the IMF.

With the available figures still dirp, dirp, dripping out of the Finance Department I now believe we are looking at a possible 150,000,000,000:00 (Billion) but without a look at the books in Bank of Ireland, Allied Irish bank, and Irish Life and Permanent, remember these institutions are issuing their own bonds and the government are guaranteeing these bonds.

There are bonds coming up for renewal to the tune of 30 to 45 Billion from the various banks and I can’t see how the banks are going to re-finance under the current circumstances.

Needless to say we are not been given the full figures and I expect that Lenihan and his gang of financial terrorists will try to sneak out more bad figures soon ,this would more than likely be done using cronies from the various media they control .

At this stage we the public have been softened up and there is likely to be more and more drip drip feed of bad news.

The government’s attempt to con the opposition parties into a half-baked union is most telling and this tells me that the real figures must be really bad!  Even worse that my figures as I keep reminding people there is no mention of the huge losses on their derivatives trades by the  various banks and these losses will have to be brought out for all to see sometime .  
    
This brings a whole new meaning to the praise “Well connected”
This stinks to high heaven!

http://thepressnet.com/2010/10/03/nama-changes-were-designed-to-keep-bank-of-ireland-private/

and http://thepressnet.com/2010/10/02/majority-of-countrys-banking-system-nationalized/

No accountabilityfrom Walsh!

Walsh defends Irish Nationwide board
 By SIMON CARSWELL, Finance Correspondent Irishtimes .com
 
THE FORMER chairman of Irish Nationwide, Michael Walsh, has said anyone who was involved in banking during the crisis was unhappy with what had happened.
Speaking as he arrived at Dublin airport on Friday night off a flight from London, Dr Walsh was replying to a question about whether he felt any remorse about the cost of the lender’s bailout or with what had happened at the now State-controlled lender.
He declined to comment on the Government’s move to double the State’s bailout of Irish Nationwide from €2.7 billion to €5.4 billion last week due to higher than expected losses on property loans.
 He also had no comment on his stewardship as chairman of the building society or the management of the institution by former chief executive Michael Fingleton.
 Full story here link http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2010/1004/1224280310716.html

 

Comment:
 Here we have a man who should know better, he was part of a group who presided over the reckless lending to a small group of developers and now he hasn’t the decency to admit or take his share of responsibility, and in all probability he is in receipt of a bonus, pension and probably got a nice sum on his way out the door of Irish Nationwide,the building society he helped to destroy leaving the taxpayers with a 5,000,000,000 : Euro headache.He should be brought before the courts on charges of grosses dereliction of duties and if found guilty he should not be allowed to benefit from his questionable actions whilst working in the Irish Nationwide building society.
Why were the CAB not called in to investigate the obvious fraud that went on there ?
Why are these people able to fly around the world unhindered?One can’t help but get the feeling that they are been protected by the powers that be!
I wonder how many TD’s have loans with Anglo Irish Bank, Irish Nationwide Building society and now Allied Irish Bank ,Could it be that if the truth were known some of our TD’s would be declared Bankrupt and would then have to vacate their Dail seats and the Government would fall.
There should be at least a full independent financial audit done (By an foreign company) on these banks with a full list of the debtors and creditors published for all to see, so we can establish if there was a conflict of interest by any of the ruling élite of this country and if there was then criminal charges must be brought against such persons      

 

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