What is truth?

Archive for the ‘Back to Education Programme’ Category

European bank stress test scam!

European bank stress test – official estimates signify NAMA is unintentionally overpaying for loans and undermine DoF’s claims about the Bottom

namawinelake | July 24, 2010 at 6:28 am

The Committee of European Banking Supervisors (CEBS) together with the EC and ECB has published its eagerly awaited results of stress-testing 91 European banks. The two Irish banks included in the exercise, Bank of Ireland and Allied Irish Banks passed the stress-test which set out to examine the capital base of banks in two scenarios – a benchmark scenario and an adverse scenario. Good news for BoI and AIB – seven other European banks didn’t pass the test.

As stated in the report “the benchmark scenario was based on the EU Commission Autumn 2009 forecast and the European Commission Interim Forecast in February 2010, with several adaptations to reflect recent macro-economic developments in a number of countries. The adverse macro-economic scenario was based on ECB estimates”. The assumptions for Ireland are summarized below together with the calculation by the CEBS of the effect on commercial and residential property prices

For information, here is a round up of recent predictions/projections for the Irish residential market:

For information, the ESRI published this week recovery scenarios for the State  – the high growth scenario and the low growth scenario. Both scenarios forecast 2010 GDP to contract by 0.4% and unemployment in 2010 to reach 14%.

What makes the stress test fascinating from the point of view of NAMA is its forecasts for commercial and residential property prices. It’s benchmark scenario is for a 15% compound decline in residential in 2010 and 2011 with drops in both years, a 19% compound decline in commercial in 2010 and 2011 with drops in both years. There is no projection beyond 2011. NAMA has chosen a Valuation Date of 30th November, 2009 pursuant to section 73 of the NAMA Act by reference to which NAMA is valuing the loans being transferred from the financial institutions.

How much does property need recover by 2020 assuming

1. Prices stop falling at the end of 2011

2. All property is sold in December 2020

3. 67% of property is located in Ireland

4. 33% of property is located in the UK

5. Property in the Ireland and the UK is split 50:50 between commercial and residential

The table below what recovery needs happen if NAMA is forced to rely on the recovery of the property market to break even – remember in the draft Business Plan is that the recovery was a flat 10% over 10 years. With the CEBS benchmark scenario, the recovery would be 24.7% and in the adverse scenario 41%. Both of these represent significant changes to NAMA’s draft Business Plan. To emphasise, assuming prices stop falling after 2011, the compound rate of growth needed would be 2.5% per annum for each of the nine years in the benchmark scenario and 4% in the adverse scenario.  These compound percentages might be rendered meaningless if there is significant default and NAMA’s interest receivable falls below its interest payable.

Perhaps a more interesting implication from the benchmark scenario is related to the question of whether NAMA is overpaying for loans now by paying for loans according to the 30th November, 2009. The answer is a resounding yes and if you compare forecast prices at the end of 2010 with the 30th November, 2010, there is an implication that NAMA is overpaying by something in the order of €3-6bn again based on the following assumptions:

1. NAMA acquires the loans by reference to a valuation date of 31st December 2010

2. Price changes in the month of December 2009 have been ignored

3. The LEV remains at a constant 11% above CMV

4. 67% of assets are in Ireland

5. 33% of assets are in the UK

6. The split of assets between commercial and residential is 50:50

Now of course the above is very much a simplification. NAMA’s assets may not correspond to general commercial and residential forecasts – where is development land for example? NAMA will have 7% or so of assets in the Rest of World. NAMA’s LEV as a percentage of CMV may change. So far this year in Ireland residential is off 5% (to the end of Q1) and commercial 8% (to the end of Q2) and the UK is broadly positive, so we have some way to drop before we get to the EU benchmark scenario. There are other assumptions but it is a fair representation, I believe, to say that we are overpaying by billions for NAMA loans by reference to current values – some overpayment was planned via the Long Term Economic Value device but the overpayment being referred to here is on top of that.

Lastly this stress test report comes on the heels of the publication of the EU’s Decision in respect of the first Anglo restructuring plan which was submitted with the DoF’s imprimatur, to the EC in November 2009. The Decision (paragraph 41) revealed that Anglo was planning for property prices were seen to drop in 2009 by 15-19% [actual according to Permanent TSB/ESRI was 18.5%] and continue falling in 2010 and 2011 before starting to rise in 2012. The average decline in property prices in the plan is estimated at 47% peak to trough but in the worst case is 62%. And now with this stress test we have the official EC/ECB estimates that property will continue to drop this year and next. Of course a finance minister has a responsibility to instil confidence but Brian Lenihan’s Bottom statements in September 2009 and April 2010 are now looking distinctly disingenuous and more importantly damaging because the Bottom will come at some point but may overshoot because of a lack of confidence in advice from the government.

source http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2010/07/24/european-bank-stress-test-%e2%80%93-official-estimates-signify-nama-is-unintentionally-overpaying-for-loans-and-undermine-dof%e2%80%99s-claims-about-the-bottom/

comment

Needless to say this whole stress test episode is just a political stage show for the benefit of Joe public  in Euro land .The sad fact is that this test has absolutely no value whatsoever as it does not take into consideration the real dodgy bonds and loans that are the cause of the banking crises in Europe 

The various European politicians have jumped on this and are telling us and the markets that there is no financial crises with our banks and the  European Banks and it’s all a bad dream  that we are all collectively having!.

Cowen and Lenihans assurances that we have turned the corner in 2009 and again in April of this year were lies and dam lies!

How anybody will ever believe a word out of their lying mouths again I will never know!

We now need to wake up and start spending again and where are we going to get the money to spend when we are out of work, when the gangsters in the same “sound banks” are hiking interest rates and pushing people out of their homes as a result of their gambling

The government having poured billions into these same Toxic Banks, are desperately trying to get those of us that still have a little money to invest in these bankrupt banks so they can again start the whole rotten pyramid cycle all over again.Now that the country  is practically bankrupt, they are now about to sell off the last vestiges’ of silver ware the country has left, along with proposed new toll, s on the National roads network, along with home rates and water charges where can we go from here?

500,000 people are out of work and for the last two years none of the politicians in power or the crony independent TD, s that are propping them have done anything for the unemployed

The current government’s unemployment policy is to” let them eat cake “and waffle on about the smart economy

That’s smart all right 60,000 young people left the country last year and the ESRI believes at least 200,000 more will have left by 2014

Clearly the unemployed are only receiving lip service and are way down in the pecking order!

We need a complete change of the political system

Help get rid of the gombeen, s running this country,

Get active on the ground in your own neighbourhoods and do not vote the same leaches back into office

it’s time to change  the system!

New reserve currency

This is big trouble for the USA
WASHINGTON (AP) — Regulators on Friday shut down a Nevada bank, raising to 83 the number of U.S. bank failures this year.
The 83 closures so far this year is more than double the pace set in all of 2009, which was itself a brisk year for shutdowns. By this time last year, regulators had closed 40 banks. The pace has accelerated as banks’ losses mount on loans made for commercial property and development.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. took over Nevada Security Bank, based in Reno, with $480.3 million in assets and $479.8 million in deposits. Umpqua Bank, based in Roseburg, Ore., agreed to assume the assets and deposits of the failed bank.
New reserve currency
We in Ireland are still bailing out bankrupt banks at the cost billions we don’t have causing economic depression for this and the next generation!
With 52 thousand students coming out of our universities and no jobs to go to
alone along with 100,000 people all ready left the country ,and another 53 thousand students leaving secondary education this year
How many of them are going into apprenticeships, jobs or is it emigration for the majority for them
The Unelected Cowen and his band of economic terrorists are helping the top bankers of the state live it up while the rest of us struggle to pay our monthly bills
I say let the bankrupt banks pay their own bills and allow them to fail, just like the Americans are doing in the land of Free markets
Allowing the crooks in the Dail to plunder our natural resources and the wealth of future generations is a crime I personally do not want to be responsible for, when our children ask what you did to prevent it I can show I was active in my opposition and I made a stand
What can you say you did??
It is the responsibility of each and every one of us to oppose this band of thieves we must stand up and take action
Do not just stand by and allow our country to be destroyed by the current government who have sold out to the faceless bondholders in Germany , France and England
Stand up and Fight back now!
Put yourself up for election do not give you vote to any of the current TD’s
We need new blood in the Dail and not Family dynasties
We want a general election now and we need a new community party made up of new local people from ordinary backgrounds that will work for an average wage and not clock up huge self given perks, ending up as millionaires while the rest of us struggle to pay for these perks & pensions
We need real servants of the people and not leach’s sucking the rest of us dry like some of the current shower of TD’s are doing
The next general election must end Gombeenisem for good.
Promise yourself this and we just might save Ireland!

(Unelected) Taoiseach Brian Cowen has rejected an assertion

Cowen denies unemployment a ‘low priority’

Wednesday, 16 June 2010 11:39

(Unelected) Taoiseach Brian Cowen has rejected an assertion by Labour Leader Eamon Gilmore that unemployment is a low priority for the Government.
Brian Cowen said the Government had increased the number of training places for the unemployed.

He said jobs were created on the basis of a more competitive economy and predicted net employment creation next year on the basis of current Government strategy.

Eamon Gilmore said the situation was hopelessly depressing for people out of work.

He described as ‘socially unsustainable’ the situation in which one in three young men was on the dole.

Mr Gilmore criticised what he referred to as the Government’s residual theory of employment and encouraged the Taoiseach to come up with a strategy to get the unemployed back to work.

source http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0616/politics.html

Wicklow Times gives us a mention

 

We recently crossed over the 36,000 visitors mark and for the first time we also got a mention in the local paper the Wicklow Times click here Document (9)

They picked up on my article on the Local TD’s expenses.

Last Year we had a Darby and here is the link http://thepressnet.com/2009/09/01/wicklow-td%e2%80%99s-are-big-spenders/

My thanks to all who drop by on a Daly basis , contribute and encourage me .Independent news and opinions  are a vital ingredient of Democracy ,and we must guard these fundamental rights we all have .

We also have the right to call to account those that are put in places of power be it local or national

remember we the people are the paymasters and they are supposed to be working for US the general public .We must get used to asking the real questions .for example Wicklow Town has now approx 2000 unemployed ,so what have the Local elected TD’s done to get even one person a job

What new funds or what job creation measures have been provided in the last 17 months

I can answer you NONE!

Don’t promise you votes to someone just because there a nice Man/Woman

We need new faces and new ideas; nothing will change if the same old policies are kept

 We need Action on Jobs and not hot air and empty promises

Billions have been squandered in toxic Banks (NAMA)

Jobs have been created for top managers, accountants and solicitors (people in the right circles)

The rest of us are dumped and forgotten!

Stand up and fight back! 

  Demand up-skilling ,re-education and universal health care for all

 Demand answers and accountability!

The right to work Campaign (2)

Back to Education Programme

 

 

If you missed out on educational opportunities when you
were younger or if you need to update your skills to compete

more successfully for a job, the Department of Social and

Family Affairs may be able to help.

We run a range of second chance education programmes to

help unemployed people, lone parents and people with

disabilities improve their skills and qualifications.

This booklet outlines a number of ways that you can return

to full-time or part-time education while continuing to get

income support. The programmes range from basic

foundation courses through to third level postgraduate

courses.

If you wish to take a full-time second or third level course,

you may qualify for a Back to Education Allowance

(BTEA). Or, you may continue to get your current social

welfare payment if you wish to participate in other

education, training or development courses.

The Back to Education Programme covers the following

study options:

• Second level education courses

• Third level education courses

• Education, training and development courses

• Part-time education courses.

Also, the Department of Education and Science runs the

Vocational Training Opportunities Scheme (VTOS)

which is particularly suitable if you have been out of school

for some time.

for further information please click here  sw70

Tag Cloud