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Where have all the performing loans gone?

Where have all the performing loans gone?
August 7, 2010 by namawinelake

The last two weeks have seen suggestions that perhaps as much as €8bn of largely performing loans that were NAMA-bound will no longer come within the agency’s control, which would be very bad news for NAMA’s finances.

First we found out that NAMA had agreed not to transfer Paddy McKillen’s loans pending the outcome of Paddy’s judicial review proceedings which are scheduled for October 2010, though with appeals, could take considerably longer. This week we learned Paddy’s Metrospa Limited has sold a property on Old Bond Street in London for GBP £18.2bn and also that another of Paddy’s companies Maybourne has been “inundated” with expressions of interest to provide finance that might redeem the €600m-odd Anglo and Bank of Ireland loans apparently outstanding to the group. Come October, Paddy mightn’t have any NAMA eligible loans. Paddy has assured us all his loans are performing. Paddy has an estimated €800m outstanding to Anglo alone and exposures with at least one other NAMA bank.
full articel http://www.namawinelake.wordpress.com

Comment:

We are slowly been subjected to a gradual change of what NAMA was supposed to be
With the siphoning off the entire choice bits (performing loans) and leaving the toxic stuff in NAMA for the taxpayers, don’t be surprised to hear calls from the Insiders for a new bank and guess who will have a major share holding of this New bank why our old corrupt pals in Allied Irish Bank, Irish Life and permanent and Bank of Ireland
This will conclude the socializing of all the toxic assets and the privatisation of the profitable assets
This is stealing on a massive scale and no one will do a thing about it
Or will they?
stop this wholesale fraud now.

Leo Armstrong ,from Citizens First has something to say

Leo sent this to me to -day

Today in this country there are many who are suffering as a result of the mismanagement of our institutions with the wholehearted approval of a corrupt government yet we are behaving like lambs going to the slaughter.

What is wrong with us?

Twenty years ago the world celebrated the fall of Communism, a political system that controlled the citizen with an iron fist. I don’t see much difference in the political system here in Ireland where we have been conditioned by the Media and ‘Spin’ doctors.

For some reason or other, except for people like Thomas, we are accepting the situation we are in lying down. Why are we not up in arms demanding for heads to roll. Why should these Thugs, and thats all they are, who got us into this situation continue to be in power. Why should bankers who mismanaged our hard earned money continue to hold senior positions in the banks….they should be in jail.

Those ‘decent’ individuals in the Fianna Fail party, in the Greens and Independents who are supporting this government are all just as guilty.

If we lived in a truly democratic society putting off byelections for over a year would not be tolerated; corruption would not be tolerated; fiddling expenses would not be tolerated; people lying in trolleys in our hospitals would not be tolerated; the present rip-off culture would not be tolerated.

I am calling on everyone who loves this country to join me and get these Thugs out.
contact e-mail pp2010@live.ie

Sharp rise in Live Register figures

Sharp rise in Live Register figures

The number of people on the Live Register in July climbed by 8,500 to 452,500.
Read the report
The Central Statistics Office said this was the biggest rise in the seasonally adjusted figure for a year.
Women accounted for more than half of the increase.
The unadjusted figure showed that there were 466,800 people signing on, an increase of almost 14,000 from June.
The CSO said the unemployment rate rose to 13.7%, from 13.4%, in June.
The data also shows that the largest number of people signing on were professionals, who made up more than a fifth.
The next largest increase was in the category of clerical and secretarial workers.
The Live Register includes some part-time, seasonal and casual workers.
It is not designed to measure unemployment, though it is regarded as the most up-to-date indicator of the state of the jobs market.
Jobs crisis
Minister for Social Protection Éamon Ó Cuív said that while the figures are at a very high level, it was worth noting that the figures rose more slowly in July than in June.
He said it showed that the Government’s hard choices had brought stability to the economy.
On long-term unemployment, he said two out of every three unemployed people leave the Live Register within six months of signing on.
However, Labour’s Willie Penrose said the figures proved that solving the jobs crisis had dropped to the bottom of the Government’s agenda.
He said the Fianna Fáil-Green Party Government was like ‘a deer caught in the headlights’, when it came to tackling the problem.
Sinn Féin’s Arthur Morgan said the prognosis for recovery was ‘dire’.
The Irish Congress of Trade Unions said the Government’s policies of massive cuts were deflating the economy.
The statement concluded that further deep cuts in the Budget and panic reactions to sell-off the family silver would only exacerbate the crisis.
NCB Stockbrokers economist Brian Devine described the data as discouraging.
While small business lobby group ISME said the true extent of people losing jobs was obscured by emigration.
Its chief executive Mark Fielding said a whole generation of young education Irish were becoming economic migrants.
Redundancies
Separate figures from the Department of Enterprise, Trade & Innovation show that redundancies are running below last year’s levels, though the figures remain high compared with 2
5,298 lay-offs were notified to the Department in July, down 15.7% from the same month last year.
For the first seven months of the year, redundancies are down almost 20% from the same period last year at 39,105.
This is still, however, not much less than the 40,000 recorded in the whole of 2008.

Comment:
A message from someone dumped on the scrap-heap
No matter what way you try to spin out of these figures Mr. Ó Cuív they are still not the true figures which I believe to be in and around 675,000
You and the rest of the current government squatters and the rest of the political establishment should hang your collective heads in shame!
To the people of Ireland I beg you
For God sake please do not vote any of the current TD, s back into office
let’s have a complete clean sweep .

Foul-Mouth Gogarty looking for points?

Gardai may probe Callely expenses

(UKPA) – 2 hours ago

A Green Party TD has lodged an official complaint with the gardai about the expenses claims of controversial Senator Ivor Callely.

Paul Gogarty, who has written to the Seanad complaining about the politician’s alleged conduct, went to Dublin’s Lucan Garda Station asking for an investigation to be carried out.

Fianna Fail suspended Senator Callely from the party on Tuesday as it launched its own probe into his expenses after fresh allegations that he had used forged documents to claim from the Oireachtas.

source http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5htl4sbtWgoPvV15T6s_41I0aI5cg

Comment

This latest grandstanding by this foul-mouthed TD is laughable

If he really has an ounce of credibility he should report the con artistes in the Cabinet to the fraud squad and the CAB should be called in

These crooks have robbed the Irish taxpayers of billions of euro to bail our corrupt Banks and dodgier Developers and are still allowing the same corrupt banks to charge 300% and more on mortgage interest payments to their hard pressed and bewildered customers

This TD (Paul Gogarty) has sold out every core value he had in order to hold on to power and the perks he now enjoys at the expense of the betrayed taxpayers of this country.

In my eyes he is no better that Callely and the rest of the cronies and leaches that populate the senate and the Dail chamber

I call on all TD, s to publish in their entirety all the expanses and recipes so the general public can see for themselves who is calming for what

This should be done on the internet and Kildarestreet .com would be an excellent platform for the Ladies and Gents who  proclaim to be public servants .

  

Please send your TD,s  an  e-mail calling for them to publish their entire expenses now on the web

good news for multi National companys

If you are a multi National company the good news is the same crooks are still in power and I here they are strapped for cash and you can pick up the countries electrical supply company that enjoys a monopoly for peanuts along with some other choice bits of infrastructure so get on the phone and call me here at home and I’ll tell you another bedtime story .
general election now!

Transparency in Ireland

Absolutely nothing has changed almost a year later
Cowen is still in charge and is still the 4th most highly paid politician in the world
Just think about that.
Dr. Constantine Gurdgiev sets out the real numbers and they speak for themselves
we are kidding ourselves if we chose to ignore these facts
The insiders still hold all the power in this country and they are responsible for the mess we are in
They are also trying to convince the people of Ireland that they have the answers to our problems
How depressing! We must wake up and rid ourselves of these incompetent baboons that are ruling our country


European bank stress test scam!

European bank stress test – official estimates signify NAMA is unintentionally overpaying for loans and undermine DoF’s claims about the Bottom

namawinelake | July 24, 2010 at 6:28 am

The Committee of European Banking Supervisors (CEBS) together with the EC and ECB has published its eagerly awaited results of stress-testing 91 European banks. The two Irish banks included in the exercise, Bank of Ireland and Allied Irish Banks passed the stress-test which set out to examine the capital base of banks in two scenarios – a benchmark scenario and an adverse scenario. Good news for BoI and AIB – seven other European banks didn’t pass the test.

As stated in the report “the benchmark scenario was based on the EU Commission Autumn 2009 forecast and the European Commission Interim Forecast in February 2010, with several adaptations to reflect recent macro-economic developments in a number of countries. The adverse macro-economic scenario was based on ECB estimates”. The assumptions for Ireland are summarized below together with the calculation by the CEBS of the effect on commercial and residential property prices

For information, here is a round up of recent predictions/projections for the Irish residential market:

For information, the ESRI published this week recovery scenarios for the State  – the high growth scenario and the low growth scenario. Both scenarios forecast 2010 GDP to contract by 0.4% and unemployment in 2010 to reach 14%.

What makes the stress test fascinating from the point of view of NAMA is its forecasts for commercial and residential property prices. It’s benchmark scenario is for a 15% compound decline in residential in 2010 and 2011 with drops in both years, a 19% compound decline in commercial in 2010 and 2011 with drops in both years. There is no projection beyond 2011. NAMA has chosen a Valuation Date of 30th November, 2009 pursuant to section 73 of the NAMA Act by reference to which NAMA is valuing the loans being transferred from the financial institutions.

How much does property need recover by 2020 assuming

1. Prices stop falling at the end of 2011

2. All property is sold in December 2020

3. 67% of property is located in Ireland

4. 33% of property is located in the UK

5. Property in the Ireland and the UK is split 50:50 between commercial and residential

The table below what recovery needs happen if NAMA is forced to rely on the recovery of the property market to break even – remember in the draft Business Plan is that the recovery was a flat 10% over 10 years. With the CEBS benchmark scenario, the recovery would be 24.7% and in the adverse scenario 41%. Both of these represent significant changes to NAMA’s draft Business Plan. To emphasise, assuming prices stop falling after 2011, the compound rate of growth needed would be 2.5% per annum for each of the nine years in the benchmark scenario and 4% in the adverse scenario.  These compound percentages might be rendered meaningless if there is significant default and NAMA’s interest receivable falls below its interest payable.

Perhaps a more interesting implication from the benchmark scenario is related to the question of whether NAMA is overpaying for loans now by paying for loans according to the 30th November, 2009. The answer is a resounding yes and if you compare forecast prices at the end of 2010 with the 30th November, 2010, there is an implication that NAMA is overpaying by something in the order of €3-6bn again based on the following assumptions:

1. NAMA acquires the loans by reference to a valuation date of 31st December 2010

2. Price changes in the month of December 2009 have been ignored

3. The LEV remains at a constant 11% above CMV

4. 67% of assets are in Ireland

5. 33% of assets are in the UK

6. The split of assets between commercial and residential is 50:50

Now of course the above is very much a simplification. NAMA’s assets may not correspond to general commercial and residential forecasts – where is development land for example? NAMA will have 7% or so of assets in the Rest of World. NAMA’s LEV as a percentage of CMV may change. So far this year in Ireland residential is off 5% (to the end of Q1) and commercial 8% (to the end of Q2) and the UK is broadly positive, so we have some way to drop before we get to the EU benchmark scenario. There are other assumptions but it is a fair representation, I believe, to say that we are overpaying by billions for NAMA loans by reference to current values – some overpayment was planned via the Long Term Economic Value device but the overpayment being referred to here is on top of that.

Lastly this stress test report comes on the heels of the publication of the EU’s Decision in respect of the first Anglo restructuring plan which was submitted with the DoF’s imprimatur, to the EC in November 2009. The Decision (paragraph 41) revealed that Anglo was planning for property prices were seen to drop in 2009 by 15-19% [actual according to Permanent TSB/ESRI was 18.5%] and continue falling in 2010 and 2011 before starting to rise in 2012. The average decline in property prices in the plan is estimated at 47% peak to trough but in the worst case is 62%. And now with this stress test we have the official EC/ECB estimates that property will continue to drop this year and next. Of course a finance minister has a responsibility to instil confidence but Brian Lenihan’s Bottom statements in September 2009 and April 2010 are now looking distinctly disingenuous and more importantly damaging because the Bottom will come at some point but may overshoot because of a lack of confidence in advice from the government.

source http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2010/07/24/european-bank-stress-test-%e2%80%93-official-estimates-signify-nama-is-unintentionally-overpaying-for-loans-and-undermine-dof%e2%80%99s-claims-about-the-bottom/

comment

Needless to say this whole stress test episode is just a political stage show for the benefit of Joe public  in Euro land .The sad fact is that this test has absolutely no value whatsoever as it does not take into consideration the real dodgy bonds and loans that are the cause of the banking crises in Europe 

The various European politicians have jumped on this and are telling us and the markets that there is no financial crises with our banks and the  European Banks and it’s all a bad dream  that we are all collectively having!.

Cowen and Lenihans assurances that we have turned the corner in 2009 and again in April of this year were lies and dam lies!

How anybody will ever believe a word out of their lying mouths again I will never know!

We now need to wake up and start spending again and where are we going to get the money to spend when we are out of work, when the gangsters in the same “sound banks” are hiking interest rates and pushing people out of their homes as a result of their gambling

The government having poured billions into these same Toxic Banks, are desperately trying to get those of us that still have a little money to invest in these bankrupt banks so they can again start the whole rotten pyramid cycle all over again.Now that the country  is practically bankrupt, they are now about to sell off the last vestiges’ of silver ware the country has left, along with proposed new toll, s on the National roads network, along with home rates and water charges where can we go from here?

500,000 people are out of work and for the last two years none of the politicians in power or the crony independent TD, s that are propping them have done anything for the unemployed

The current government’s unemployment policy is to” let them eat cake “and waffle on about the smart economy

That’s smart all right 60,000 young people left the country last year and the ESRI believes at least 200,000 more will have left by 2014

Clearly the unemployed are only receiving lip service and are way down in the pecking order!

We need a complete change of the political system

Help get rid of the gombeen, s running this country,

Get active on the ground in your own neighbourhoods and do not vote the same leaches back into office

it’s time to change  the system!

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