By Dan O’Brien (Irish Times)
With yet another painful budget in the offing, now is a good time to revisit the austerity debate. Last April, I wondered why so many people take such strong positions on the matter.
There is no doubt that tax cuts and more public spending boost growth in the near term, while austerity dampens it. But because of the inherent difficulties in disentangling the causes of economic growth/contraction, it is very hard to say how big austerity effects are. That, however, has not led to calm debate.
Ireland’s experience over the past half decade can be, and has been, used by both sides. Since 2008, Ireland has endured more austerity than any other country in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. At the same time the domestic economy has contracted massively and almost uninterruptedly. Public debt continues to rise.
Ergo, say the fiscal stimulators, austerity isn’t working………………………
full article at source: http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2012/1123/1224327007545.html
Today the weather turned and Lubeck got a lot colder so a warm glass of Gluewien was most welcome .A chance meeting of this famous Hux str policeman ( one of Lubeck,s finest) was also one of the highlights of the day ! We might be in for snow tonight! I hope to get some video shots of the Marine kirche Christmas market tomorrow!
By William Wordsworth
With a continuous cloud of texture close,
Heavy and wan, all whitened by the Moon,
Which through that veil is indistinctly seen,
A dull, contracted circle, yielding light
So feebly spread, that not a shadow falls,
Chequering the ground–from rock, plant, tree, or tower.
At length a pleasant instantaneous gleam
Startles the pensive traveller while he treads
His lonesome path, with unobserving eye
Bent earthwards; he looks up–the clouds are split
Asunder,–and above his head he sees
The clear Moon, and the glory of the heavens.
There, in a black-blue vault she sails along,
Followed by multitudes of stars, that, small
And sharp, and bright, along the dark abyss
Drive as she drives: how fast they wheel away,
Yet vanish not!–the wind is in the tree,
But they are silent;–still they roll along
Immeasurably distant; and the vault,
Built round by those white clouds, enormous clouds,
Still deepens its unfathomable depth.
At length the Vision closes; and the mind,
Not undisturbed by the delight it feels,
Which slowly settles into peaceful calm,
Is left to muse upon the solemn scene
By Florian Pantazi
Slowly but surely, the set of remedies employed in the hope of solving the euro crisis is now spreading recession from the periphery to the core of the eurozone. Austerity measures, accompanied by an increase in taxes, will bring France’s economic growth to a halt next year. Germany’s growth rate, based on its solid export machine, is also showing signs of slowdown. As the European Union is the world’s largest economy, its troubles are spreading economic stagnation to its main trading partners – China, the US, Japan and Brazil – as well.
The launch of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), currently hailed as a kind of European monetary fund, has recently re-ignited hopes of appeasing financial markets. Alas, the only lasting solution to the euro’s woes is that of allowing EU national governments to sell their treasury bonds directly to the ECB, thus totally bypassing financial markets.
In truth, no state should be subjected to the same financial pressures and performance criteria that private corporations normally are. To give but one example, prior to 1973 the French government was able to borrow directly from its national bank at zero interest. Through the introduction of private or institutional investors into the equation, as market intermediaries between national banks and their governments, the stage is set for astute financial speculators to increase returns for their clients on the backs of states in need. Rating agencies, acting on behalf of investors, are able to exert pressure on governments to reduce expenditure on essential public services, as it has happened it the EU over the past few years.
full article at source: http://www.europesworld.org/NewEnglish/Home_old/CommunityPosts/tabid/809/PostID/3293/Apossibleexitfromtheeurocrisis.aspx
By David Mc Williams
Greece has defaulted again, and the financial markets have shrugged their shoulders. The euro remained unchanged versus the dollar. The Greek stock market even rallied. What does this tell us? It tells us that, as this column has argued again and again, the markets have no memory. Because it improves the overall position of a country, a debt restructuring will be welcomed since it adheres to the golden rule: a broken balance sheet is made better by less debt not more debt.
The media is reporting this as a “deal” in Greece. It is not, it is yet another default from a country where the economy is destroyed and needs to be nursed back to health rather than punished.
The big news for Greece and for us is that the troika has accepted that the country must be healthy in order to pay debt. This logic applies to Ireland too. Before we focus on the implications of the latest Greek default for us, let’s look at the broader picture. And before you think that I am advocating we follow the Greek route, I am not, I am simply pointing out the reality of the global economy and the realpolitik at the centre of Europe.
Effectively, the troika and the Europa group of Greece’s creditors have “agreed” (rather they have had their hands forced) to restructure their bailout loans. Interest rates will be lowered and even deferred to give Greece breathing room.
full article at source: http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2012/11/29/greece-is-the-word-if-you-want-to-know-where-we-go-from-here?utm_source=Website+Subscribers&utm_campaign=1b3f442441-22112012&utm_medium=email
Since September, the Currency Wars have escalated. It isn’t just because of the seminal monetary events of the Federal Reserve’s QE III “unlimited” and the ECB’s OMT “Uncapped”. It is highly likely, more about the fact that China announced its eleventh agreement that effectively bypasses using the US dollar with China’s strategic trading partners. The latest agreement with Russia places trading oil, in non-US dollars, into the spotlight. The infamous petrodollar has had its destructive profile raised.
The Petrodollar has long been the cornerstone that solidified the US dollar as the key currency reserve holding. The Petrodollar strategy is arguably more important that the Bretton Woods agreement which officially made the US dollar the world’s reserve currency at the end of WW II. This is now being called into question. Minimally, it suggests a weakened requirement for holdings of the current levels of US dollars in sovereign reserve accounts.
For the sake of space I won’t lay out all the details of this but instead refer you to two recent video releases I have produced and participated in on the subject.
- Currency Wars: The Failing Petro$$ Strategy – YouTube
- Triffin’s Paradox & the Rule of Law – YouTube
What is important to Traders is what it means to your trading strategy in the short to intermediate term. To Investors it has profound longer term consequences.
To determine short term effects, we first need to understand the relationship of the Driver$ involved. The three critical currency relationships near term are the US$, the € and the ¥. Then we need to understand how they will effect US Treasury yields.
First however it is important to understand the controlling mechanism of global fiat currencies.
THE $67 TRILLION SHADOW BANKING SYSTEM (The Fiat Currency Control Block)
The Global Economy is approximately $70 Trillion. According to a just released report by the Financial Stability Authority (FSA), charged with investigating it globally, the Global Shadow Banking System was $67T in 2011.
full article at source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article37733.html